The GBPUSD has moved up in the European session. The construction PMI and the UK came in a touch better than expectations at 55.5 versus 54.9 expectations and 54.6 last month. Technically, the low for the day could not extend toward lows from Friday's trade, and that may have given buyers a "little bit of a nudge" to push the price higher.
However, the run to the upside did have a limit. Looking at the hourly chart above, the price stalled right near its falling 100 hour moving average at 1.32854.
Recall from Friday's trade, the spike higher on the weaker headline jobs report did briefly extend above its 100 hour moving average only to fail quickly and rotate back to the downside (see blue line on the hourly chart above). So there was rejection both on Friday and again today. The sellers leaned.
Going forward, it would take a move back above the 100 hour moving average and then the 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 1.33063 and moving lower) to give the buyers more hope/control. The last time the price traded above the 200 hour moving average was back on November 22. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the November 18 high comes in at 1.33151. That would also be a minimum target to get to and through for the buyers to take more control (see yellow area in the chart above).
Drilling to the five minute chart below, the price has corrected around 50% of the move higher today. That level comes in at 1.32535. The rising 100 bar moving average comes in at 1.3250. Move below those levels, and the buyers will be questioning their control intraday. Stay above and we could see another run up toward the 100 hour moving average as the US session progresses.
