Gold daily chart July 5

Gold is down $43 to $1767 as the US dollar surges and recession fears cloud the demand outlook. Earlier today Russia forecast a larger government surplus but said the money won't be put into FX or gold reserves.

I suspect this move has little to do with newsflow and more to do with technicals and the darkening cloud over risk assets. US equities are down 2% and everything is being sold at the moment. For gold, the fall in Treasury yields should be good but I don't think we'll see it translate into gold gains until central banks pivot to something less-hawkish.

The December low of $1753 should offer some mild support from here but there isn't much on the chart to lean against until the Sept low of $1720 and the August 2021 low of $1684.

Seasonally, the July-August period is generally a good one for gold but it hasn't started out that way this year.

At some point the USD-fever will crack but right now all the focus is on falling European growth and that's kept the dollar bid.