Last week, the S&P 500 closed around the highs as the market continued to trade on the soft-landing narrative. In fact, despite the slightly higher than expected US CPI figures, the US Jobless Claims improved further and the US PPI data missed forecasts. Moreover, the Fedspeak has been generally neutral with no strong pushback against the market's rate cuts expectations. Yesterday, the market was closed for MLK Day, but the futures market was open and we saw some downside pressure as market participants might be positioning into a hawkish Fed’s Waller today.
Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite last week pulled back into the 14780 level and bounced strongly as the buyers piled in for a new high. There’s not much to do here as the price trades right in the middle of the two key levels, so we need to zoom in to get some clarity.
Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rejection near the 14780 level where we had also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence and the moving averages crossover. The buyers should keep on targeting a new high, while the sellers are likely to step in around the high with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 14050 level.
Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been consolidating recently around the 15000 level as the buyers continue to push for a break and an extension into a new high. The buyers leant on the red 21 moving average and the trendline but looking at the futures market, we can expect to see the price opening lower today. Given the breakout, we can expect the sellers to target the 14780 support where the buyers will start to pile in with a defined risk below the level.
Upcoming Events
Today, all eyes will be on Fed's Waller as the market will be eager to see if he decides to pushback against the aggressive rate cuts expectations. Tomorrow, we will get the US Retail Sales report while on Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
