NZDUSD
NZDUSD stays below the 100 hour MA

The RBNZ has a predicament as they decide whether to raise rates by the expected 50 basis points or come in lower (pause?) as a result of the devastation from cyclone Gabrielle.

The NZ treasury chimed in overnight saying that the reconstruction efforts would raise inflationary pressures and will likely keep the RBNZ higher for longer. The Shadow Board also recommended 50 bps.

Counter arguments (perhaps humanitarian influenced) argue for a pause (see post here).

Looking at the NZDUSD , the pair has been pushing to the downside over the last week or so of trading, with the pair bottoming on Friday. Yesterday and today, the price has seen up and down trading. That has allowed the 100 hour MA (blue line) to catch up to the price (see blue line). The Asian high and the London morning high both found willing sellers against the MA level, keeping the sellers in control. A move above would be a modest bias shift to the upside in the short term, but with more work to do.

ON the topside getting above the highs from yesterday and today at 0.6361 would be an initial step toward more buyer control, followed by a move above the 38.2% of the move down from high last week at 0.62677. Ultimately a move above the 200 hour MA (and 50% of the same move lower) at 0.62909 would be needed if the buyers are to assume more control.

Until then, the sellers are more in control, with a move below the low from last week at 0.61929, the next key target to get to and through.