The strongest of the weakest of the major currencies

The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The US avoided a government shut down when Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy found a way around his own party blockade Saturday. They passed a 45-day funding measure with near-unanimous Democratic support (November 17 is the next date to circle on the calendar). A total of 126 Republicans voted for the bill. However, 90 opposed it, and it isn’t clear how or whether some of those foes might try to exact retribution against McCarthy. The battle may be over, but the war is not won as the GOP right wing hardline rebels remain empowered and intent on ousting McCarthy as speaker.

Other than that, it is a new trading month. September was the worst month for the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices in 2023 (largest decline since December 2022).

The PMI data will be released in Canada and the US.

  • Canada manufacturing PMI will be released at 9:30 AM. Last month it came at 48.0
  • US S&P PMI will be released at 9:45 AM and is is expected at 48.9 versus 48.9 flash estimate.
  • US ISM manufacturing PMI will be released at 10 AM ET and is expected of 47.8 versus 47.6 last
  • ISM manufacturing prices are expected at 48.9 versus 48.4 last month

US construction spending will also be released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 0.6% versus 0.7% last month.

Fed's Powell, Harker and Barr are scheduled to speak today.:

  • Fed's Powell will participate in a roundtable discussion with workers, small business owners and community leaders at 11 AM ET. Fed's Harker will also participate in that discussion
  • Fed's Barr is scheduled to speak at 1 PM ET. The title of the speech is "Monetary Policy and financial stability" at the Cornell Club Forecasters Club Luncheon in New York.

US stock futures are implying a mixed open despite the shutdown aversion. Prices have declined from earlier premarket levels. US yields are higher with 2 and 10-year yields each up about 5-6 basis points.

A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:

  • Crude oil is trading up $0.49 or 0.44% $91.20
  • Spot gold is trading down -$10.37 or -.0.55% at $1837.24
  • Spot silver is trading down -$0.49 or -2.2% at $21.68
  • Bitcoin is trading higher at $28212. At this time on Friday, the price was down at $26,971.

In the US premarket for US stocks, futures are implying a mixed open

  • Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -58.5 points after Friday's -158.84 point decline
  • S&P index futures are implying a decline of -4.80 points after Friday's -11.65 point decline
  • NASDAQ futures are implying a small gain of 7.26 points after Friday's 18.05 point rise

In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading mostly lower:

  • German DAX, -0.28%
  • France's CAC, -0.32%
  • UK's FTSE 100, -0.46% %
  • Spain's Ibex, +0.04%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.29% (10 minute delay)

In the US debt market, yields are lower with the yield curve flattening

  • 2-year yield, 5.104% +5.8 basis points
  • 5-year yield, 4.674% +7 basis points
  • 10-year yield, 4.630% +6.0 basis points
  • 30-year yield, 4.745% +3.7 basis points
  • 2 – 10 year spread is trading at -47 basis points after trading at -48 basis points at this time yesterday

In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are trading mixed:

European benchmark 10 year yields