The USD has dipped after the Fed chair started his testimony saying that March is still dependent on data (i.e. the employment and CPI data to come). He reiterated that January data may have been influenced by better weather and seasonals. The expectations for jobs on Friday are for a 225K increase with unemployment rate of 3.4%. Data like that would still be indicative of a strong jobs market. Recall last month nonfarm payroll increased by 517 K.

EURUSD: The EURUSD moved to a new intraday high at 1.05694. That has taken the price above the swing low from last Wednesday at 1.0564. The price is back below the level 1.0558 currently . On the top side, a swing area between 1.0576 and 1.0585 or the next targets followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the high this week which comes in at 1.0588. If the sellers are to remain in control, those levels should hold resistance if tested.

EURUSD trades to a new high

USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved to a new session low and in the process test the cluster of moving averages starting with the 100 hour and 100 day moving average at 136.43. Below that is the 200 hour moving average at 136.331. The buyers have leaned against those moving averages on the first test. The current price trades at 136.55.

USDJPY falls to the 100 hour/100 day moving average

USDCAD: The USDCAD moved to a new high after they kept rates unchanged as expected. The high price reached 1.37939. That high was still short of the swing high going back to November 2022 at 1.38062.

USDCAD moved to a new high after rate decision but stalls

Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, the USDCAD traded mostly between 1.3743 and 1.37727 today before the recent up-and-down price action before and after the BOC rate decision. The 100 and 200 bar moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart below) are converged at 1.3758. Going forward, a move back below the 100 and 200 bar moving average and the 1.37437 level (the low of the swing area), would tilt some of the short-term bias to the downside. We could see some downside probing as a result.

USDCAD on the five minute chart