The FOMC is expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow when they meet. As such, traders will be looking for clues for a more hawkish unchanged policy or a more dovish unchanged policy. There are a lot of balls in the air including sticky inflation, but core inflation is starting to calm down. Strikes are popping up more which threatens inflation down the road, but there are headwinds as well like higher rates, the resumption of education loan payments, higher energy prices. Despite those headwinds, growth is still pretty good. The latest Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for 3Q growth remains elevated at 4.9%.
The most likely scenario is that Chair Powell remains as neutral as possible given the cross current. However, we know that "the market" likes to move on key events. As a result, in preparation, traders should earmark key levels that would give bias-defining clues.
In this video on the EURUSD, I outline the more bullish and more bearish levels that would shift the bias.
- Technically, on the downside, the 1.0610 level represents the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2022 low. Move back below that level - and stay below - would increase the bearish bias and open the door for lower levels.
- Technically, on the top side, the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart and 38.2% retracement of the move down from the end of August high at 1.0751 (both are at that level), would have traders targeting 50% of the same move down at 1.0788. That is also the high of a swing area going back to the end of May/early June. A move above that level and traders would target the 200-day moving average and 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart which are both near 1.0833.
So be aware, be prepared. This video will help you plan your trade and give traders the next clues for more bullish or more bearish in the EURUSD.