The EURUSD moved higher in the Asian/European morning session but the move to the upside moved into a swing area between 1.0748 1.07637. That area is home to a number of swing highs going back to May 24 and ahead of the May swing high - and highest level since April 25 - at 1.0761.
Going forward in trading this week, it will take a move above that swing area to open the door for more upside momentum. Get above and a retest of the May high is likely with a move above that high also likely.
Conversely stay below the higher swing area, and the market is saying it is not ready to push higher.
On the move back to the downside, the price has returned to the 200/100 hour moving averages (green and blue lines). The 200 hour moving average comes in at 1.0718, while the 100 hour moving average comes in at 1.07137.
So far, the MAs area are holding support as traders bob and weave between the technical levels at the start of the week. A move below would tilt the bias more to the downside with targets coming in at higher swing areas including 1.0696, 1.06787, 1.0661, and a swing area between 1.0633 and 1.0641.
On Wednesday of last week, the price of the EURUSD broke below its 200 hour moving average, and buyers turned to sellers forcing the price down to and through that lower swing area. However, the price quickly rebounded ahead of its 38.2% retracement of the range since the May 15 low, and the sellers turned the buyers pushing the price back above the moving averages on Thursday and for most of Friday.
The inability to fall below the 38.2% retracement on the hourly chart him kept the buyers in play.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the high price from the end of May stalled ahead of its higher 38.2% retracement on that chart. The 38.2 came in at 1.07862. The high price reached 1.07861.
So two separate 38.2% retracement levels are in play this week.
On the downside, the 38.2 from the hourly chart comes in at 1.06189.
In the opposite direction to the topside, the 38.2% retracement from the daily chart comes in at 1.07862. Admittedly, that range is about 168 pips. The current price is more toward the upper end at 1.0718. Nevertheless keep those 2 levels in your mind for a longer term bias defining clue from a technical perspective as buyers and sellers battle it out between levels.
