The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. In the UK today the employment statistics were released and although the claimant count and unemployment rates were spot on, the 3M/Y average earnings rose to 6.4% which was higher than the 6.2% expected. The GBPUSD has taking a step to the upside and trades at the highs for the day as North American traders enter for the day. ON the daily chart below, the pair is looking to reenter a swing area between 1.22787 up to 1.23436. The 1.2300 level is the home to the 50% midpoint of the move down from the June 1, 2021 high.
German ZEW sentiment came in much stronger than expected and swung into positive territory at 16.9 vs -15.0 estimate. That is the first positive reading since February 2022. The low point was -61.9 in September 2022. The expectations index was also positive at 16.7 vs -14.3 est (and -23.6 last month). That too is the first positive since February 2022. It's low reached -60.7 in September 2022.
China announced better than expected data thanks to a bounce back in retail sales as Covid policy was relaxed. GDP increased by 2.9% on a Q/Y basis. Retail sales came in much better than expected at -1.9% YoY vs -9.5% estimate.
The JPYs weakness comes ahead of the BOJ meeting in the new trading day. Will they continue the nudge toward a tighter policy?
US stocks are moving lower in premarket trading after the Martin Luther King holiday yesterday. Goldman Sachs missed on the top and bottom line. Morgan Stanley beat expectations. Goldman shares are down about 2.3% in pre-market trading. MS shares are near unchanged. Crude oil is back above $80. Investor sentiment is shifting to China restarting (albeit with fits and starts). US yields are higher.
IN other markets:
- Spot gold is down -$8.50 or -0.43% at $1909
- Spot silver down -$0.22 or -0.90% at $24.07
- Crude oil trading at $80.43. That is up $0.57 from the settle price on Friday
- Bitcoin is above $21000 is it continues its bullish run. It currently trades at $21,269. The high price reached $21,344 today
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are moving lower. The NASDAQ index is on a six-day win streak. The S&P and Dow Industrial Average have been up five and last six trading days.
- Dow Industrial Average -117.61 points after Friday's 112.64 point rise
- S&P index down -12.3 points after Friday's 15.92 point rise
- NASDAQ index -53.48 points after Friday's 78.04 point rise
the European equity markets, the major indices are marginally lower/unchanged:
- German DAX -0.11%
- Francis CAC, -0.06%
- UK's FTSE 100 -0.21%
- Spain's Ibex +0.05%
- Italy's FTSE MIB -0.2%
in the US debt market, the US yield curve is steeper:
In the European debt, market the 10 year benchmark yields are mostly higher.
