The USD is back to being the strongest and the is the AUD the weakest as the NA session begins.
The EURUSD is lower ahead of the ECB decision at 8:15 AM where they are expected to continue their move toward restrictive policy with a 75 basis point hike. Traders have 93% priced in for 75 bps with the remainder at 100 bps. However, could the hike come with a dovish pivot on retreating energy prices?
Technically, the EURUSD is backing away from its 100 day MA at 1.0088 The high price today reached to 1.0093 in the Asian session and backed off.
On a more hawkish interpretation, getting above – and staying above - that key moving average level would be required. On the downside, the parity level (1.000) followed by the 0.9951 (swing low going back to July) will be eyed as the downside targets through the decision The current prices trading at 1.0044 between the 2 levels.
ECBs Lagarde will conduct her usual press conference starting at 8:45 AM ET (at least it is not at 8:30 AM anymore).
At 8:30 AM ET, the US Durable goods (+0.6%), GDP for the 3Q (Atlanta Fed has it pegged at 3.1% this quarter) with expectations at 2.4%. COre PCE is expected at 4.5%. Initial jobless claims are expected as well at 220K vs 214K last week.
In the US stock market, the US stocks are set to open mixed as the Dow rises, the S&P is more near unchanged and the Nasdaq moves lower. Meta shares are down over 20% on the day and near the lowest level in nearly 7 years. This morning McDonalds, Caterpillar, Comcast beat on the top and bottom line. Northrup Grumman missed on top and bottom line. After the close, Intel, Amazon and Apple are set to announce.
In other markets:
- Spot gold is trading down $3 or -0.18% at $1661.60
- spot silver is trading down $0.20 or -1% at $19.37
- WTI crude oil is trading up $0.29 at $88.20
- Bitcoin is trading steady $20,577. That was the exact level 24 hours ago
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading mixed:
- Dow industrial average is up 185.89 points after speaking at a 2.37 point gain yesterday for the 4th consecutive rise
- S&P index is down down 2.25 points after yesterdays -28.51 point decline. The laws yesterday snapped a 3 day gain streak
- NASDAQ index is down -63 points after yesterdays -228.12 point decline. Like the S&P, the decline yesterday snapped the 3 day gain streak
In the European equity markets the major indices are trading lower after closing near high levels yesterday
- German DAX -1.0%
- France's CAC, -1.3%
- UK's FTSE 100 -0.7%
- Spain's Ibex -0.71%
- Italy's FTSE MIB -0.7%
In the US debt market, yields are higher today:
- 2 year 4.453%, +3.5 basis points
- 5 year 4.249%, +5 point basis points
- 10 year 4.073% +5.9 basis points
- 30 year 4.195%, +3.2 basis points
in the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are higher ahead of the ECB decision:
