As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The US dollar is stronger head of the key core PCE data that will be released at 8:30 AM. The US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data is a comprehensive measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the United States. It is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and serves as a key indicator of overall economic activity, consumer behavior, and inflation trends. The PCE data is also the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for assessing inflation, as it captures a broader range of expenditures and is less volatile compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The expectations is for core PCE to show and increase of 0.4% versus 0.6% last month. The year on year is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Last month the year on year for the headline PCE came in at 5.4% (up 0.6% month-to-month). Personal income and personal consumption will also be released with the PCE data at 8:30 AM ET. Consumption is expected to increase by 0.3% while income is expected to increase by 0.2% for the month of February
In addition to the PC data, the University of Michigan sentiment for March will be released with expectations of a dip to 63.2 from 63.4 in the preliminary estimate. That was less than the 67.0 last month. The one year inflation estimate dipped to 3.8% from 4.1% in the preliminary report
Flash CPI data out of the Eurozone was released earlier today with the YoY falling sharply to 6.9% from 8.5%, and below its expectations of a 7.1%. Not as positive was that the core CPI flash came in at 5.7% versus 5.6% last month German retail sales were weaker than expected -1.3% versus 0.5% expected. The unemployment rate in the EU remained steady at 6.6%.
US rates are mixed with the yield curve flattening. The two-year is higher while the 10 year is trading marginally lower. US stocks are mixed/little changed.
A snapshot of the market is currently showing:
- spot gold is up $0.81 or 0.04% at $1981.25.
- Spot silver is up four cents or 0.18% at $23.93.
- WTI crude oil is trading up $0.58 at $74.95
- Bitcoin is trading just below the 28,000 level at $27,966 the price has been consolidating between $26,541 and $29,380 since the March 17 break higher.
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are marginally higher as the first quarter comes to an end. The NASDAQ index is leading the way this quarter with a gain of 14.78% this quarter. The Dow Industrial Average is marginally lower at -0.87%, while the S&P index is up 5.5%.
- Dow industrial average is up 79 points after yesterday's 141.43 point rise
- S&P index is up 9.5 points after yesterday's 23.02 point rise
- NASDAQ index is up 5.8 points after yesterday's 87.24 point rise
In the European equity markets, the major indices are higher:
- German DAX +0.47%. For the quarter the index is up 12.0%
- Frances CAC +0.55%. For the quarter the index is up 12.81%
- UK's FTSE 100 +0.25%. For the quarter the index is up 2.51%
- Spain's Ibex +0.32%. The index is up 12.24% for the first quarter
in the US debt market, the yields are mixed with the shorter end higher and the longer end lower (yield curve flatter):
In the quarter the two year yield is down 27.5 basis points. It traded as low as -87 pips this quarter. The 10 year yield is down -33.5 basis points after being down as much as -59.3 basis points.
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower. The UK 10 year yield is higher:
For the first quarter:
- German 10 year yield is down -21.6 basis points. It was down as much as -65 basis points
- UK 10 year is down -12 basis points. It was down as much as a 68.5 basis points.
- Frances 10 year is down -24.5 basis points. It was down as much as -71.9 basis points.
- Italy's 10 year is down -54.5 basis points. It was down as much as - 103 basis points
- Spain's 10 year is down -28.8 basis points. It was down as much as -75 basis points.