The USDJPY is moving to a new session high in early New York trading as yields move higher. The 10 year yield moved up to 2.875%. It currently trades at 2.86%. The 30 year yield rose to 3.07%. It is currently at 3.060%.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price rise in the Asian session today did extend above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May high at 128.256. However that break was short-lived and the price rotated back to the downside into the early European session (see hourly chart above).
However over the last 5 or 6 hours, the price has moved back above the 38.2% retracement with more momentum and extended up to a high price of 128.722. That has taken the price into a swing area between 128.60 and 128.738. Move above that area and the next upside target comes against the 50% midpoint of the move down from the May high at 128.845.
Traders may look to lean against that midpoint level on the 1st test, with a stop on a break above.
Taking a broader look at the weekly chart below, the low price from last week's trading down at 126.348 stalled comfortably ahead of the swing high going back to 2015 at 125.847.
The area between 125.07 and 125.847 is a key downside target, that if broken would give buyers some cause for pause after the sharp run up seen this year. Move below that level, and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2021 low targets the 124.154 level.
Ultimately, if the price cannot get below the 38.2% retracement on the longer term chart, the move down from the high is simply a plain-vanilla retracement variety. The longer term buyers would still be more in control.
Him him
