The USDJPY trading today is also seeing up and down price action.
The low price reached late in the Asian session/early European session found support buying against the 38.2% retracement at 127.508. That was also the low from last week. The inability to get below that level helped to push the price back higher. The holding will also increase that retracements importance going forward. Recall that yesterday, the price did move below the retracement level, but could not extend to the next target at 126.93, and after moving back above the 38.2%, reestablished the level as support.
On the topside, the highs are somewhat random at 128.207 and 128.291. The current price is at 128.08. Move above each should encourage more upside probing.
On an extension higher, the traders will target the falling 100 hour moving average 128.633 currently (blue line in the chart above). That is also near a swing area between 128.60 and 128.738 (see red numbered circles).
Meanwhile, BOJs Kuroda is on the wires reiterating that:
- It is important to maintain yield curve control, including with negative rates
The reluctance for the BOJ to hint of raising rates (and for maintaining QE), and the acceptance that the Fed has to raise rates and raise them quickly, has led to the sharp rise in the USDJPY to 20 year highs. There has been a correction lower but one that gets to the 38.2% -50% of the last move higher, is still modest.
The recent downward move has been helped by a move lower in US yields as stock declines have led to more fears of a US recession.
Watch the 38.2% for trading bias clues from the market.