USDCAD above a swing area now with the 50% of the 2023 above

The USDCAD is trading to a new session high and in doing so erases earlier declines.

Later today, the BOC's Macklem will be speaking (at 12:45 PM ET). At the BOC meeting on January 25, the central raised rates by 25 basis points and announced a "conditional pause" in hikes. The market will be listening for further thoughts on rates/economy.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price high yesterday reached up toward the 50% midpoint of the move down from the 2023 high (from January 3). That level comes in at 1.34729. The high price yesterday extended up to 1.34748 (just above that 50% midpoint level) before rotating back to the downside and closing at 1.3445.

After a rotation lower in the Asian session which saw the price move down below the broken 38.2% retracement at 1.3423 to a session low of 1.3400 (a nice round number), the price chopped up and down into the early European session, with resistance coming between a swing area between 1.3434 and 1.3445 (see red numbered circles). The last hour has seen a rotation above that swing area to the new high for the day at 1.34634.

On the top side, the 50% retracement remains a key target to get to and through. Not only did the price of the USDCAD stall the rise during yesterday's trade around that level, but the pair also stalled the rise last week near the level. Get above that level opens the door for further upside momentum with the 1.3497 (call it 1.3500) as a next target followed by a swing area between 1.3512 and 1.3526. The 100 day moving averages at 1.35317.

What would spoil a potential continuation of the move to the upside?

Move back below the 1.3434 – 1.3445 area would disappoint, the buyers with a move below the 1.3423 level another indication that the buying momentum is just not there.