Hey Haydon

USDCAD extends to the next target

The USDCAD has continued it's bullish run to the upside and reached the next target at the 1.3807 level. That level represents the high from November 3rd. The price reached 1.3814 and has backed off a bit. The next target on the daily chart comes in near 1.3835 (see daily chart above) on continued upside momentum.

What is the risk on the downside now?

Close risk for the pair can be derived from the 5 minute chart below.

Looking at it, the USDCAD consolidated in an up and down range with 1.3743 as the floor and 1.3772 as the ceiling.

After the BOC rate decision, the price started to consolidate above the high of the up and down range (above 1.3772). After one last dip just below the high of the range at 1.3772 that failed (the low reached 1.3771), the sellers turned buyers and took the price to the new high at 1.3814..

Going forward, that 1.3772 level is a short term risk level.

Also in play, is the rising 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5-minute chart below currently around 1.3768 and 1.3775 respectively. Stay above them, and the buyers are in firm control. Move below, and there could be some downside probing on the failed break.