The USDCAD has been trading in a up and down fashion after bottoming on January 13 and again yesterday (the low yesterday reached 1.24476 just below the low from January 13 at 1.24525).
The high price of the last six days has reached 1.2570 (last Friday) the high price this week stalled at 1.2563 on Tuesday.
As mentioned, yesterday the price did move to a new cycle low and spent most of the day below its 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 1.25118). There were four separate hourly bars that did trade above that moving average line, but momentum could not be sustained and the price rotated back to the downside.
In trading today, the high price in the Asian session found willing sellers against that moving average line, and the price has wandered lower in early North American trading. Also in play is the 100 day moving average at 1.2498. The price moved below that moving average line in the Asian session, and has stayed below that level during the European/early NA trading session.
It would take a move back above the 100 day moving average at 1.2498 and the 100 hour moving average at 1.25118 to give the buyers some hope that further upside corrective action is possible. The falling 200 hour moving average 1.25365 would also need to be broken for upside hope.
Absent that, and although the price is consolidating up and down, the sellers still remain in control. The bottom from last week, and this week near 1.2450 are the next obvious targets on the downside.
Break below and swing lows going back to July 2021 at 1.2422 and a swing low going back to November 2021 at 1.23835 would be the next targets