Crude oil prices are continuing to recover with the price now up at $71.80. It traded as low as $62.46 on November 2 - just 4 trading days ago. The move higher has helped to push the CAD higher (USDCAD lower).
Yesterday the price move back below its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). And close the day trading near its 200 hour moving average (green line). The price had not traded below the 200 hour moving average since November 10.
After consolidating above and below the key moving average in the early Asian session, sellers started to take more control and pushed the price to the downside. The pair in the European session move below the swing low from last week at 1.27105. That increase the selling momentum. The current price just reached a new day low at 1.26528.
The next major downside target comes in against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the the October 27 low. That level comes in at 1.26413. That level also corresponds with a swing low going back to November 25. There could be some slowing of the move lower against the level.
However with the price trending today, I would expect that on a break, the dip buyers may look to get out quickly.
Trends are fast, directional, and tend to go farther than traders expect. So be aware.
Drilling to the five minute chart below, the trend lower started during yesterday's trade. Since breaking below both the 100/200 bar moving averages near 1.2826, there has only been a couple five minute bars where the price traded above the lower 100 bar moving average (blue line in the chart below. Sellers have been trending the price lower.
The current 100 bar moving averages at 1.26928 and moving lower. Ultimately would take a move back above that moving average to give the buyers more control. Absent that and sellers are in firm control of the technical bias. The swing low at 1.2664 and swing highs near 1.2686, are a closer risk defining level in the short term intraday trading.