The USDCHF has continued to see the price move up and down over the last two trading days. That up and down has seen the price mired in a 42 pips over the first two days of the new week. Now it is only Tuesday, but with the price more near mid-range, it seems that the price may sit in that range through the day.
That information can be disappointing but it can also be a positive in that there is room to roam on a break.
So where is a break? Are their any technical clues?
Looking at the hourly chart, the 100 hour MA on the downside (blue line) has been sniffed yesterday and again today. Below that is the 100 day MA at 0.92148. Those two technical levels would need to be broken to open the downside.
On the topside, the 100 hour MA at 0.92486, and the 38.2% of the range since the low on January 21 comes in at 0.92528. The highs for the week come in at 0.9261 and 0.9262. Get above those levels, and the buyers are in control.
The price is at 0.92413.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the pair since August, is between 0.9081 and 0.9373. That is 6 months with a range of 292 pips. That is not a whole lot. So what are the technical's saying?:
- The price is above the 100/200 day MAs. Positive. Bullish
- The price is just above the 50% of the 6 month range at 0.9227 (the price is at 0.9242). Bullish above.
- The 38.2% of the range comes in at 0.92614 and has stalled the rise over the last 3 trading day. Bearish
If the price should head back below the 100 day MA (blue line), that would sour the longs/bulls mood (the same on the hourly chart).
However conversely, moving above 0.92614 would be nice and give the buyers/bulls more needed comfort. On a break above those levels, the market can work on the other upside targets (with hopes of getting outside the narrow range on the topside).
Falling below the 100 day moving average and then the 200 day moving average without traders thinking the other way with the lows between 0.9081 and 0.9101 as the downside targets.
So overall, the hourly chart is trading in a narrow range and the daily chart over the last 6 months is also in a narrow trading range. Buyers and sellers both have something to prove. Follow the shorter term technicals for clues that will one day lead to a longer term break. That is the best a trader can do give the up and down price action.
