In the weekend forex video - "Three down. Three to go" - I outlined how the USDCHF closed just below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart near 0.9973 and that a move above that MA level would have traders targeting the 50% of the move down from the cycle high this year at 0.9994 followed by the swing area between 1.0020 to 1.00309.
The snapshot of the video looked like this where ther 100 bar MA is the blue line, and the projection higher came up to the swing area with all the arrows defining the area. You can watch the video by clicking here. The USDCHF analysis starts at 15:10.
So what happened?
Below is the chart of the price action today. The price did extend above the 100 bar MA (blue line) and then the 50% retracement target. The price of the USDCHF, then moved up to the swing area between 1.00203 and 1.0301. The high price reached 1.00318. The price rally stalled. The current price is currently at 1.0014.
What now?
Needless to say, buyers on the break turned to sellers at the swing area. The buyers have the advantage, but staying above the 50% is probably the close risk now. The last 4-hour bar did hold against that level. A move below would have traders looking back to the 100 bar MA at 0.9978.
Stay above the 50% now and the traders who remain above the MAs, would now like to see the target at 1.0030 broken, followed by a move toward the 1.0066 to 1.0073 swing area (the highest yellow area on the chart above). Getting above thaat would open the door for the last hurdle being the high for the year at 1.01471. That high was the highest level since May 2019.
