The USDCHF waffled up and down yesterday. The price action has waffled up and down today. The high has been higher today, but only marginally. The low has also been higher.
Looking at the hourly chart, the high price today stalled against the 100 hour MA at 0.96659 (blue line in the chart above). The last time the price tested that moving average was back on Thursday and sellers leaned against the MA as well. In fact the sellers leaned against the 100 hour moving average back on July 19 and again on July 15. So sellers are using that level as a risk/bias defining level. Staying below has kept the sellers more control.
What next?
Obviously stay below the 100 hour moving average keeps the sellers more control and keeps the bias in their favor. Having said that on the downside there is the low of the swing area 0.96179 and the rising 100 day moving average at 0.96068 to get through. On Friday and again yesterday in the early Asian session, the price lows stalled against that 100 day moving average.
Move below the 100 day moving average and stay below would increase the bearish bias and have traders looking to break the low from last Friday at 0.9599 (call it 0.9600). Below that and swing lows at 0.9591, 0.9559, 0.9532, 0.95207 and finally the June 29 low at 0.94945 would be the downward steps.
If the price is able to find support and extend above the 100 hour moving average, should open up the door for a retest of the 0.96898 level (50% midpoint of the range since June 29). Above that is the falling 200 hour moving average at 0.97145. The price has not closed above its 200 hour moving average since July 15 Him.
