The low ticks below the November 9 low of 112.719
The USDJPY reached the highest level since January 2017 last week when the price ticked up to 115.513. That high ticked above the March 2017 high of 115.501 taking the pair to the highest level since the week of January 15, 2017. However the 1.2 pip break did not impressed the buyers, and they turned to sellers.
The last four days has seen the price move lower and in the process, retrace the entire move higher in November. The previous low was set on November 9 at 112.719. The low price today ticked to 112.674 before a modest bounce. The current price trades at 112.77.
Will the modest break below the November low give dip buyers a level to lean against now?
It could. Like the modest break at the highs just 5 days ago, the modest break at the lows can give the extreme traders a level to define and limit risk. Be aware.
However, it will likely take some help from interest rates and/or stocks. Both are currently down with the Dow down -305 points and the Nasdaq down -81 points in premarket trading. The 10 year yield is lower by -9.5 basis points to 1.4340. The cycle high reached 1.69% just last week. PS Chair Powell testimony is also a key event today as well.
From a technical perspective, what would give the buyers some hope for further upside probing?
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the last corrective high off the new month low, stalled near the high of a swing area between 112.996 and 113.108 (see yellow area on the hourly chart below). Getting back above that area would give the dip buyers some comfort. Another target would be the midpoint of the move down from yesterday's high at 113.312.
Both those targets are the MINIMUM corrective targets needed to be surpassed by the buyers. Failure and the the sellers remain in FIRM CONTROL.
SUMMARY: There is hope for dip buyers (against the month of November low), but it is based on hope vs. price action so far. Get above some upside targets and there may be some relief, but there is still work to do for the buyers.