USDJPY falls to swing area


has moved steadily to the downside and it is trading to new session lows. The low price of the pair just reached 135.258. The price closed yesterday at 136.52. The low to high trading ranges 136 pips. The average of the last month of trading is at 129 pips. It has had a full day already. The trend is to the downside.

Recall from yesterday, the price peaked at 137.767. That was about 15 pips short of the March high at 137.91 (which was the highest level going back to December 2022). At the extreme, the price was trading above the 200 day moving average

137.00. When the price moved back below that moving average level and swing area (between 136.91 and 137.09), selling intensified in that moment must continue today.

Drilling to a shorter hourly chart, the rising 200 hour moving average - just above the 135.00 level (at 135.026 currently) - would be another target to get to and through on further selling. A break below that level would also increase the bearish bias.

On the top side, earlier today the price stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the move up from last week's low near 135.95, and the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line). Both those levels would need to be broken to the upside if the buyers are to take more control.

USDJPY falls to key swing area

The battle lines are drawn ahead of the FOMC in the USDJPY. With banking risks and rates continuing to move to the downside (two-year is now down -3.1 basis points and the 10 year is down -4.5 basis points), the sellers have reversed some of the gains seen from last week (post BOJ rate decision where they kept policy unchanged).

The focus is also shifted to the Fed now, and the USD, and that is trying to shift below the 100 hour MA, with the swing area and 200 hour MA a work in process for the sellers.