The USDJPY has ticked to a new high for the day and in the process has extended the trading range to 70 pips. The average over the last 22 trading days has been 112 pips as the pair over that time saw a trend move higher. However, over the last 5-6 days, the price has been in a corrective sideways mode, that has seen the pair move down to test the 38.2% of the move up from the March 4 low (but remain above it).
The inability to extend below the 38.2% retracement at 121.10 (the lows reached 121.30ish on Wednesday and Thursday of last week), keeps the correction as a "plain vanilla" variety. The sellers were able to get below the 100 and 200 hour MA, but could not stay below those levels. Sellers had their shot. They succeeded in correcting the pair, but not in holding control (and taking back more control).
In trading today, the 100 hour MA (blue line) was broken earlier today but could not extend below the 200 hour MA (green line). The subsequent move back to the upside (and move to a new high) has the pair now targeting the high from Friday at 123.026. That is the low of a swing area extending up to 123.188 (see blue numbered circles). Get above that area and the buyers take the price into the upper extreme that extended up to 125.093 in the capitulation move seen last Monday (Adam called it here).
Although the sellers could lean against the aforementioned swing area up to 123.188, and stay in a battle with the buyers, it would take a move below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages to give full control back to the sellers in the short term. For now the buyers are dominant with resistance looming at the swing area above.
