The USDJPY has now retraced more than 50% of the move up from the day's low at 123.544. The price is also below intraday 100 and 200 bar MAs at 123.91 and 123.406. The price moved below the 100 hour MA and corrected back toward that MA, only to find willing sellers. That was a "tell" for intraday traders that the trend party to the upside may be over.
The pair has been trading above and below the 200 bar MA, but has dipped further to the downside.
Intraday, watch the 200 bar MA at 123.412 and the 50% midpoint at 123.544 for resistance now if inclined to trade the short side.
Giving the sellers some additional hope comes from the weekly chart below.
The move to upside today saw the price move above swing highs from Nov/Dec 2015 above 123.706. The high stalled ahead of the highest highs from 2015 at 125.27and 125.85. The high reached 125.093. The price is now below the Nov/Dec highs at 123.706 with the price at 123.23 as I type.
That too was not great for the buyers. 1. Failed on the upside target, and 2. Fell below the next highest high at 123.706.
Now, is it all bad/bearish?
No. The price has trended higher and is up 14 of 16 days. It is hard to get in front of a roaring train.
The price is still higher on the day. The price is testing the 50% of the move up from Friday's corrective low (not today's low) at 123.13 (the low reached 123.135). See the hourly chart below.
A correction below the 50% midpoint of the move higher today is not the end of the world but it is a start especially after the sharp move higher. There are some buyers offside.
So stay below 123.41. Stay below 123.544, and in the short term, the sellers can hold and hope for more downside momentum.
Move above those levels, and the waters are muddy again with 123.706 another upside target that would need to hold resistance if the sellers are to have a shot.
Absent that, and the sellers are not winning.
