Rates in the US are lower to start the trading day, but the USDJPY has seen moves down and back up, before rotating back to the downside in early NY trading. Normally, the path of the USDJPY follows the rate path in the US. Today there is some up and down price action which might be getting it's directional move from the technicals.
Technically, the move lower in the Asian-Pacific session saw the price move below the 200 hour moving average (green line at 135.862). The low reached toward the swing high going back to February 23 at 135.36 and bounced. Holding support gave the buyers something to lean back against on the dip.
In the London morning session, the price extended back above the 200 hour moving average (helping the buyers), but the pair found willing sellers ahead of the falling 100 hour moving average at 136.242 (the blue line in the chart above).
Recall that 100 moving average held support last Thursday, trying to keep control in the favor of the buyers. On Friday traders once again tried to hold support against that moving average only to break lower and push the price toward the 200 hour moving average (green line).
The selling near the 100 hour moving average today keeps a lid on the pair (sellers show up), and with the last decline, the price is pushing back below the lower 200 hour moving average and in the process, increasing the bearish bias.
Stay below the 200 hour MA now, and the low from earlier in the day - and the low from February 23 - becomes the focus at 135.36 followed by another swing area between 135.11 and 135.22.
Fed's Powell speaks tomorrow on Capitol Hill. His comments will be instrumental in the overall direction of the US dollar this week. With the Fed raised rates from 0.25% to 4.75%, much of the increases have been done. That makes the chairs "tilt" more important on the margin.
On Friday, the US jobs report will be the next key economic release that both the market and the Fed will be focused on.
