The USDJPY price action going back to June 17 has seen the pair move up and down between 134.24 and 136.997 (275 pips). The high price of that range was reached last week, and just below the natural resistance at 137.00 (the highest level since September 1998). The subsequent move to the downside since that high saw the pair bottom at 134.73 on Friday.
On Monday, the low was higher and against the rising trend line (see red numbered circles 4). Yesterday, the price low was also higher and also against the rising trend line (see red numbered circles 5). Holding that trend line increases the levels of importance going forward. A move below it (and staying below) down the road would increase the bearish bias.
After successfully testing that trend line yesterday, the price did spike back higher and in doing so traded back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages which are near the middle of the trading range since June 17, and moving sideways indicative of the non-trending up and down market. The shorter-term bias turned more positive on the move back above, but the price action has been up and down with the high price today stalling ahead of a resistance swing area between 136.298 and 136.435. The high price today reached 136.215.
The USDJPY has moved down since peaking in the European session. The price lows stalled near the lower 100 hour moving average. Admittedly, there was a brief dip below the lower moving average, but buyers quickly returned. The current price is trading between the 200 hour moving average above at 135.753 and the lower 100 hour moving average at 135.611.
Buyers and sellers are battling it out, and awaiting the next shove.
What that shove look like?
Getting below the 100 hour moving average and staying below, would have traders looking for a confirmation on a move below 135.421. After that, traders will be looking toward the aforementioned upward sloping trend line currently at 135.05. Move below that trend line and the area between 134.67 and 134.773 would be targeted.
Conversely holding above the 100 hour moving average, and moving back above the 200 hour moving average would have traders focusing on the high for the day and the swing area 136.298 and 136.435. Move above that level would put the price back in the upper extremes , with the swing high from June 21 at 136.70 and the swing high from last week (highest level since 1998) at 136.99 as the next obvious targets.
For now, the battle between buyers and sellers as the price that neutral levels in the middle of a range.
