USDJPY daily chart

I fear that we're near some broadly-accepted paradigm shifts in markets:

1) Acceptance that central banks will hike us into a recession

2) Understanding that inflation is global, including in Japan

3) Deeper fears about global growth

USD/JPY went on a one-way nine-week run to 130.00 from 115.00 and the case is improving for a retracement because of those themes above.

Today the SNB acknowledged inflationary pressures and the Swiss franc has a strong bid. If/when the Bank of Japan is forced to do the same, we could see a sharper unwind.

A big hurdle is the Japanese CPI report, which is coming up on Friday (Japan time). The consensus is for price rises of just 1.5% y/y but if we see a surprise, it could be followed shortly afterwards by a BOJ pivot. The moment that turn comes, the yen could recapture a bid, particularly if the risk-off mood holds.

On the USD/JPY chart, a messy head-and-shoulders top is forming that would target 123.00 on the break of the neckline.

All told, I would prefer selling AUD/JPY or GBP/JPY on global growth fears but the USD/JPY chart is worth watching closely.