A look at USD/CAD
If the low of 1.3945 breaks, watch 1.3922 which was the low on Friday March 26. That move came in low liquidity late that week and was quickly reversed the following week.
This time oil is more of a factor and the OPEC decision. However for Canadian oil I don't think it makes a big difference. Western Canada Select is trading at $5.98 and there's a real risk it goes negative if the OPEC cuts fall apart. Even if it doesn't, no one in Canadian oil is solvent at $5.98 for long.
I don't see a bright future for CAD is a global economic slump and it's only down 6.9% year-to-date against the US dollar despite being last year's top performer. Here's how that compares to AUD and NZD, who are far less oil-exposed.
Year-to-date:
