Today's CPI report from Canada is the last last the Bank of Canada's next decision on December 6th.
- due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 Eastern time
Consensus medians can be seen in the screenshot below while ranges for the headline CPI figures are:
- -0.2% to 0.3% for the m/m
- 2.0% to 3.3% for the y/y
Preview comments, in brief.
- look for CPI to fall to 3.1% y/y
- on a sharp swing in the contribution from energy products as prices hold unchanged m/m
- gasoline prices will exert a sharp drag on the month but a tepid rebound in core goods and ongoing strength in shelter should help offset this
- should also see more progress across core measures with CPI-trim/median edging lower to 3.6% y/y
- CPI growth is expected to slow significantly to 3.1% y/y in October (just above the top end of the BoC’s 1% to 3% inflation target range)
- a drop in gasoline prices pushed energy costs lower and the lagged impact of easing supply chains and lower food commodity prices continued to slow grocery store price growth
- there is not much that the BoC can do to impact global commodity prices, and price growth excluding food and energy products is expected to be ‘stickier’, edging up to 3.3% y/y
- lower gasoline prices, on both a m/m and y/y basis, will be the main driver of weaker consumer prices in October
- 0.1% decline in unadjusted prices in October (-0.2% seasonally adjusted) would see the annual rate of inflation slow to 3.0%, which would be the lowest reading since June
- food price inflation should also continue to ease, even though prices are still expected to be up modestly on the month
- ex food/energy prices could look a little firmer than in the prior month, with a 0.3% seasonally adjusted increase expected. That said, this increase is still anticipated to be more narrowly based than the inflation we were seeing in the first half of the year, with mortgage interest costs and rental prices the main contributors. The Bank of Canada’s preferred trim and median measures of inflation are expected to decelerate further on both a year-over-year and a 3-month annualized basis
- This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.