2

Comments from Steven Poloz

Comments from Steven Poloz
  • We have to remember that the economy was very strong going into pandemic
  • Economy has been very resilient
  • The sectors in the bottom part of the k-shaped recovery will be there for a long time
  • There is going to be damage and scaring over time, there's no doubt
  • Debt service costs are low, now is the time to invest
  • Should see some reflation and that will strengthen Canadian dollar and commodity currencies
  • Right now I'm feeling optimistic but there are risks in terms of a third wave
He's finally taken off his BOC hat and now he can talk about the currency.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:04:46 GMT

3

Fed's Rosengren on CNBC: Biden's $1.9 trillion package was big but appropriate

Rosengren is a nonvoter in 2021 - Bidens $1.9 trillion package was big but appropriate - we need expansionary fiscal policy to 8 economy - expects that as we get closer to full employment will have tighter fiscal policy

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Fed's Rosengren on CNBC: Biden's $1.9 trillion package was big but appropriate


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 18:04:46 GMT
Category: Central Banks
3


Rosengren is a nonvoter in 2021 - Bidens $1.9 trillion package was big but appropriate - we need expansionary fiscal policy to 8 economy - expects that as we get closer to full employment will have tighter fiscal policy

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:46:57 GMT

1

Fed's Kashkari: Vaccine news has been a positive surprise

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed The comments are in a virtual discussion and are ongoing.

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Fed's Kashkari: Vaccine news has been a positive surprise


Adam Button
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:46:57 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Comments from the Minneapolis Fed The comments are in a virtual discussion and are ongoing.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:25:15 GMT

New York Fed Nowcast GDP tracker for fourth-quarter rises to 2.5% from 2.22%

Gains from capacity utilization and industrial production Below is the trend (which has been moving to the downside since the estimates started at the end of August), and the contributors/contractors from this week's numbers.

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New York Fed Nowcast GDP tracker for fourth-quarter rises to 2.5% from 2.22%


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/2021-01-15_9-21-01.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Jan 2021 16:25:15 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Gains from capacity utilization and industrial production Below is the trend (which has been moving to the downside since the estimates started at the end of August), and the contributors/contractors from this week's numbers.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 07:30:15 GMT

PBOC says two-way fluctuations in yuan will become normal going forward

PBOC head of monetary policy, Sun Guofeng, remarks There's a bit of a hint there in the last remark that any major one-way move in the yuan - especially if it is one that moves too far, too fast - won't exactly be to their liking.

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PBOC says two-way fluctuations in yuan will become normal going forward


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210115/15-1-2021-3-24-45-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 15 Jan 2021 07:30:15 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
PBOC head of monetary policy, Sun Guofeng, remarks There's a bit of a hint there in the last remark that any major one-way move in the yuan - especially if it is one that moves too far, too fast - won't exactly be to their liking.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 07:18:41 GMT

PBOC reaffirms that will prioritise stability in monetary policy, no sudden shifts

Comments by PBOC deputy governor, Chen Yulu - Prudent monetary policy this year will be more flexible, targeted, appropriate - Monetary policy will provide necessary support for economic recovery This is basically a reiteration of their current policy stance since last year in handling the virus crisis. So, there's no change on that front.

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PBOC reaffirms that will prioritise stability in monetary policy, no sudden shifts


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20171128/pboc.png Justin Low
Fri 15 Jan 2021 07:18:41 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments by PBOC deputy governor, Chen Yulu - Prudent monetary policy this year will be more flexible, targeted, appropriate - Monetary policy will provide necessary support for economic recovery This is basically a reiteration of their current policy stance since last year in handling the virus crisis. So, there's no change on that front.

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 03:27:13 GMT

The short term lid on the US dollar

Comments from Westpac senior currency analyst Sean Callow quoted in a Reuters piece in response to Powell speaking on Thursday (US time).

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The short term lid on the US dollar


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 15 Jan 2021 03:27:13 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments from Westpac senior currency analyst Sean Callow quoted in a Reuters piece in response to Powell speaking on Thursday (US time).

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 01:53:22 GMT

2

Poll shows Bank of England still expected to keep rates unchanged until at least 2024

Reuters latest poll of analysts on the outlook for the UK. Analysts expect: - It will take more than two years for Britain's economy to recover to its pre-COVID-19 level Reuters have posted

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Poll shows Bank of England still expected to keep rates unchanged until at least 2024


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 15 Jan 2021 01:53:22 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
Reuters latest poll of analysts on the outlook for the UK. Analysts expect: - It will take more than two years for Britain's economy to recover to its pre-COVID-19 level Reuters have posted

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 01:28:24 GMT

PBOC conducts a 500 bn yuan 1-year MLF at 2.95%.

 People's Bank of China Medium-Term Lending Facility at an unchanged 2.95% The MLF today rolls over a maturing loan of the same amount. 

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PBOC conducts a 500 bn yuan 1-year MLF at 2.95%.


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 15 Jan 2021 01:28:24 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
 People's Bank of China Medium-Term Lending Facility at an unchanged 2.95% The MLF today rolls over a maturing loan of the same amount. 

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Fri 15 Jan 2021 01:15:53 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4633

People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan mid-rate for the trading session ahead.

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4633


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 15 Jan 2021 01:15:53 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan mid-rate for the trading session ahead.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Jan 2021 00:59:56 GMT

1

RBNZ says recent data breach (hack) is significant, NZ financial system remains sound

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr statement posted to the Bank's website.   Full text is here I posted on the hack earlier in the week.

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RBNZ says recent data breach (hack) is significant, NZ financial system remains sound


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 15 Jan 2021 00:59:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr statement posted to the Bank's website.   Full text is here I posted on the hack earlier in the week.

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Thu 14 Jan 2021 18:53:43 GMT

7

What's next for the US dollar after Powell

Taper headlines led to a momentary move The key headline from Powell was: "now is not the time to be talking about exit" in regards to QE and that "when it does become appropriate for the committee to discuss specific dates" it will be done "well in advance."

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What's next for the US dollar after Powell


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210114/powell-kitchen.png Adam Button
Thu 14 Jan 2021 18:53:43 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
7
Taper headlines led to a momentary move The key headline from Powell was: "now is not the time to be talking about exit" in regards to QE and that "when it does become appropriate for the committee to discuss specific dates" it will be done "well in advance."

Asset 24 View More
Thu 14 Jan 2021 17:56:00 GMT

10

More Powell: Time to raise interest rates is 'no time soon'. Dollar falls

Dollar moves lower on the headline In the forex market: More from Powell

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More Powell: Time to raise interest rates is 'no time soon'. Dollar falls


Greg Michalowski
Thu 14 Jan 2021 17:56:00 GMT
Category: Central Banks
10
Dollar moves lower on the headline In the forex market: More from Powell

Asset 24 View More
Thu 14 Jan 2021 17:40:53 GMT

4

Fed chair Powell: To achieve inflation of 2%, need to see inflation average 2%


Greg Michalowski
Thu 14 Jan 2021 17:40:53 GMT
Category: Central Banks
4
Fed Powell speaking at Princeton

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Thu 14 Jan 2021 17:37:56 GMT

LIVE: Chairman Powell speaking at Princeton University

Fed Chairman drawn Powell speaking at Princeton University

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LIVE: Chairman Powell speaking at Princeton University


Greg Michalowski
Thu 14 Jan 2021 17:37:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Fed Chairman drawn Powell speaking at Princeton University

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Thu 14 Jan 2021 17:15:52 GMT

Our bold call for BOE negative rates on Feb 4 now in doubt - MUFG

Evaporating negative rate hopes are a GBP tailwind MUFG Research discusses its outlook for the BoE policy trajectory. "Comments reported by Reuters from BoE Governor Bailey suggest the prospect of negative rates in the UK remains finely balanced...BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent also spoke yesterday and echoed Bailey's sentiments on the economy stating the economy could be stronger than suggested by some of the data given the unprecedented nature of the pandemic may not be capturing the true extent of shifts in consumer demand," MUFG notes. 

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Our bold call for BOE negative rates on Feb 4 now in doubt - MUFG


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210114/2021-01-14_10-40-53.png Adam Button
Thu 14 Jan 2021 17:15:52 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Evaporating negative rate hopes are a GBP tailwind MUFG Research discusses its outlook for the BoE policy trajectory. "Comments reported by Reuters from BoE Governor Bailey suggest the prospect of negative rates in the UK remains finely balanced...BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent also spoke yesterday and echoed Bailey's sentiments on the economy stating the economy could be stronger than suggested by some of the data given the unprecedented nature of the pandemic may not be capturing the true extent of shifts in consumer demand," MUFG notes. 

Asset 24 View More
Thu 14 Jan 2021 12:31:44 GMT

ECB: PEPP more efficient than a rate cut in the current pandemic conditions

ECB publishes the account of its December monetary policy meeting Besides more suggestions that ECB policymakers are keeping a watchful eye on the euro, the discussion on PEPP was largely in line with what was last month. All in all, there isn't much here at first glance to suggest a change in the ECB narrative for now.

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ECB: PEPP more efficient than a rate cut in the current pandemic conditions


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180530/ecb.png Justin Low
Thu 14 Jan 2021 12:31:44 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
ECB publishes the account of its December monetary policy meeting Besides more suggestions that ECB policymakers are keeping a watchful eye on the euro, the discussion on PEPP was largely in line with what was last month. All in all, there isn't much here at first glance to suggest a change in the ECB narrative for now.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 14 Jan 2021 05:12:49 GMT

BOJ maintains economic assessment for 5 of Japan's 9 regions

BOJ raises its assessment for 3 regions while cutting its assessment for 1 other region in its latest economic report That said, with the reintroduction of state of emergency measures this month and the possibility of an extension to follow, that might temper with future assessments moving forward. The full report can be found .

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BOJ maintains economic assessment for 5 of Japan's 9 regions


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210114/14-1-2021-1-09-31-pm.png Justin Low
Thu 14 Jan 2021 05:12:49 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
BOJ raises its assessment for 3 regions while cutting its assessment for 1 other region in its latest economic report That said, with the reintroduction of state of emergency measures this month and the possibility of an extension to follow, that might temper with future assessments moving forward. The full report can be found .

Asset 24 View More
Thu 14 Jan 2021 03:26:34 GMT

2

4 Federal Reserve speakers coming up on Thursday 14 January - including Chair Powell

Chair of the Federal Reserve System Powell is speaking at 1730 GMT on 14 January 2021. He is taking part in a Princeton Economimc Webinar Also from regional presidents:

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4 Federal Reserve speakers coming up on Thursday 14 January - including Chair Powell


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180301/powell-march-1-2018.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 14 Jan 2021 03:26:34 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
Chair of the Federal Reserve System Powell is speaking at 1730 GMT on 14 January 2021. He is taking part in a Princeton Economimc Webinar Also from regional presidents:

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Thu 14 Jan 2021 01:15:44 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4746 (vs. yesterday at 6.4605)

People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan mid-rate for the trading session ahead. - 10bn mature today - thus a net 8bn drain

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4746 (vs. yesterday at 6.4605)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 14 Jan 2021 01:15:44 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan mid-rate for the trading session ahead. - 10bn mature today - thus a net 8bn drain

Asset 24 View More
Thu 14 Jan 2021 00:58:23 GMT

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda says Japan's economy is picking up, but still in severe state

The head of the BOJ was speaking at a meeting of branch managers, comments via the text.  more to come  

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Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda says Japan's economy is picking up, but still in severe state


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 14 Jan 2021 00:58:23 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The head of the BOJ was speaking at a meeting of branch managers, comments via the text.  more to come  

Asset 24 View More
Wed 13 Jan 2021 23:34:06 GMT

Here is who gets a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee in 2021

I haven't posted on the FOMC voters in 2021. The regional Presidents rotate on and off the committee each year (except for the head of the New York branch, John Williams at present. The NY Fed have a permanent FOMC vote).

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Here is who gets a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee in 2021


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200612/powell-fomc.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 13 Jan 2021 23:34:06 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
I haven't posted on the FOMC voters in 2021. The regional Presidents rotate on and off the committee each year (except for the head of the New York branch, John Williams at present. The NY Fed have a permanent FOMC vote).

Asset 24 View More
Wed 13 Jan 2021 22:31:49 GMT

1

Fed's Rosengren expects significant near-term US economic weakness (but there are positive longer run tailwinds)

Rosengren is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Comments come via an interview he had with Reuters:

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Fed's Rosengren expects significant near-term US economic weakness (but there are positive longer run tailwinds)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 13 Jan 2021 22:31:49 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Rosengren is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Comments come via an interview he had with Reuters:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 13 Jan 2021 21:31:09 GMT

1

More from Fed's Clarida

Clarida is Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve System. He spoke earlier on Wednesday, and is still going, more:

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More from Fed's Clarida


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 13 Jan 2021 21:31:09 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Clarida is Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve System. He spoke earlier on Wednesday, and is still going, more:

Asset 24 View More

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