4

The central bank rundown

The weekend is a perfect time for a quick catch up for where the major central banks are at. The central banks will be listed with the most bearish central bank first which will be, drum roll please, and no surprise it's the Bank of England winning the current battle of the bears

ECB, Central Banks

 


Bank of England: Most Bearish central bank

The single cloud which obscures the BoE's view is Brexit, or more specifically, the chance of a no-deal Brexit. Over the months the belief that Britain would get a deal out of the EU has changed with the growing realisation that a no-deal Brexit may be impossible to avoid. Boris Johnson's new approach of ensuring that Briatin leaves the EU by October 31, with or without a deal, is now being taken seriously by the markets. My view is that a deal will be struck, only after the event of a no deal. However for now the BoE is unable to assess the incoming data properly. Recently wages have stood firm, CPI was good across the board, UK retail sales were robust,but UK Q2 preliminary GDP was a miss at -0.2% vs 0.0% q/q. All in all not too bad a data set, but for now expect GBP sellers on rallies as the GBP takes the top spot for the most bearish central bank with a no-deal Brexit at the front of investors minds.


European Central Bank: Bearish

The market expectations are now for the ECB to ease by 10 basis points in their September meeting. There is also the potential for a tiered rate system, which stops every day savers paying to save their money, and a new round of asset purchases. Since the ECB signalled this easing bias the German economy shrank by 0.1% QoQ from 0.4% QoQ in the first quarter. This means that the EU's powerhouse has shown a stagnating economy since 3Q 2018. The data prompted the German Economy Minister to say that the Q2 GDP data was a 'wake-up call' and a 'warning sign'. Expect EUR sellers on rallies.


Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Bearish

The RBNZ cut interest rates by a surprise 50bps at their last rate meeting. Governor Orr was very bearish in his language at the press conference and he didn't rule out the RBNZ needing to take further action. He saw negative interest rates as an option and even the prospect of QE. It was a great opportunity for a quick leveraged NZD short, so worth noting a surprise interest rate cut fora decent opportunity as I flagged a few hours after. Since Orr spoke at the presser, there has been a New Zealand Treasury paper stating that the RBNZ could reduce the interest rate to -0.35% (currently at 1%) , but that QE was seen as a less appealing tool. Expect sellers on NZD rallies with the RBNZ's bearish outlook


Reserve Bank of Australia: Bearish potentially turning neutral

The RBA is at an interesting point having cut interest rates in back to back meetings this year (after an extended period of being on hold). The RBA have lowered their GDP growth forecast and inflation forecasts adding that their economic forecasts assume rates will move in line with the market pricing to 0.75% by year end and 0.50% by H1 2020. However, the data has been generally robust for Australia and Governor Lowe spoke of the economy being at a possible 'turning point'. See a piece here I reported on Wednesday in the week about the divergence between Australia's OECD leading indicator and the value of the AUD. The strong July employment data on Thursday helped and just after the data the odds of a 25% rate cut by the RBA are now seen at ~23% vs ~50% at the start of the week. One final aspect to mention is that the Australian economy is closely tied to China's fortunes with apx 30% of its GDP coming from trade with China. Therefore, AUD will be pushed or pulled along with the US-China trade sentiment too.


Federal Reserve - Neutral to weak bullish

Mid-week, after the Trump administration announced a delay to tariffs, Justin reported that the Fed funds futures scaled back on the 50bps rate cut with odds falling to 19% from 31% in the week.


RBA, RBNZ, BOJ, ECB


Justin made the point that you have to wonder whether or not the markets are getting too ahead of themselves in pricing such a move with the US and China hitting the brakes on further escalation for now. He went on to point out the relatively strong domestic picture means that the Fed could end up shifting to a more neutral position at next week's Jackson Hole symposium. However, in only one day that risk sentiment changed as the market went into full melodrama. Risk is elevated and fear is clouding reality. So, this is hard to call. Will calmer heads prevail as the US economy is in good shape, and the Fed can hold rates for now, or will the Fed go along with the panic and cut 50bps at the next meeting?So, the Fed is one to watch as it may be on the point of shifting to a more neutral perspective. If it does shift, expect dollar strength.


Bank of Japan - Neutral to bearish (but JPY is bullish!)

The reason that the JPY is bullish is that the Yen has been bought for its safe haven status on a number of ongoing risks. There is a risk of a no-deal Brexit, US-China trade tensions, slowing global growth concerns and political risk out of Italy. All of the above have kept JPY bid. However, the Bank of Japan are very bearish as a bank. Inflation in Japan continues to miss the 2% target and the BoJ have stated that they will 'keep very low interest rate levels for an extended period of time' until at least through spring 2020. Eamonn posted in the week that JP Morgan's reported that they consider that the Bank of Japan has now shifted to a 'pre-emptive easing stance' and that the 'BOJ is now willing to ease in response to risks of weakening momentum, rather than waiting for hard evidence'. Reuters reported that 30 out of 38 economists see the BOJ's next move as being ready to ease policy. The 100 level is seen as the 'line in the sand' level at which the BOJ will be ready act. The sub 105 will see verbal intervention. So, if the JPY is bid any further on some risk factor then expect to see some response from the BOJ.


Swiss National Bank- Neutral to bearish (but CHF bullish)

The CHF is being bid on exactly the same reasons that the JPY is being bid;as a traditional safe haven currency. The SNB interest rates areat-0.75% and haven't changed at a scheduled meeting since 2009. However, with the strengthening Franc hurting the Swiss export economy a number of large institutions, like UBS Group, Raiffeisen Bank International AG and Bank J. Safra Sarasin,have recently called for a rate cut at the September 19 meeting. This is as the Swiss franc increases more than 4% versus the Euro over the last three months. However, the median forecast is still for the SNB to remain unchanged.Expect CHF strength (like the JPY) on ongoing risk off concerns


Bank of Canada- Neutral

The Bank of Canada remains the only major central bank to not turn explicitly dovish. However, in an increasingly bearish central bank world the pressure is increasing on the Bank of Canada to follow suit. Canada is the fourth top exporter of Oil behind Saudi, Russia and Iraq, so the recent downturn in oil pricesfrom $60 in mid July down to a low near $50 in early August has been an extra weight on CAD. The recent domestic picture has been less robust too with July's Core MoM retail sales disappointing at -0.3% vs +0.3% expected and the last employment data showing a decrease at -24.2K vs 15.2K expected and an uptick in unemployment at 5.7% vs 5.5% expected. This means that the Bank of Canada is in a neutral position and its next move will likely be decided for it by global growth sentiment aiding or hindering oil prices. Keep an open mind on CAD for now


So, ForexLive readers, I hope this is helpful as a quick rundown on where we are at with the world's major central banks. Have a great weekend!

SNB, FED, BOJ, BOE, BOC

ForexLive

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Fri 16 Aug 2019 19:00:51 GMT

2

Fed's Mester: She can see scenarios where rates are steady or moved lower

Fed's Mester (non-voter in 2019) speaking. She is generally considered more hawkish. Loretta Mester is speaking. She is a nonvoting member of the Fed in 2019 and is generally considered more hawkish:

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Fed's Mester: She can see scenarios where rates are steady or moved lower


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190816/2019-08-16_12-01-20.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 16 Aug 2019 19:00:51 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2


Fed's Mester (non-voter in 2019) speaking. She is generally considered more hawkish. Loretta Mester is speaking. She is a nonvoting member of the Fed in 2019 and is generally considered more hawkish:

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Trade ideas thread - European session 16 August 2019
Asset 41
Fri 16 Aug 2019 17:18:17 GMT

3

Fed's Kashkari: Recession not base case but risks risen quite a bit

Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neil Kashkari The Minneapolis Pres. Neil Kashkari speaks on CNN: Kashkari is not a voting member in 2019 ForexLive

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Fed's Kashkari: Recession not base case but risks risen quite a bit


Greg Michalowski
Fri 16 Aug 2019 17:18:17 GMT
Category: Central Banks
3
Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neil Kashkari The Minneapolis Pres. Neil Kashkari speaks on CNN: Kashkari is not a voting member in 2019 ForexLive

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Fri 16 Aug 2019 14:18:05 GMT

Atlanta GDPNow tracker for 3Q growth remains unchanged at 2.2%

3Q GDP tracker from the Atlanta Fed In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is  on August 16, unchanged from August 15 after rounding. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -1.2 percent to 0.7 percent.

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Atlanta GDPNow tracker for 3Q growth remains unchanged at 2.2%


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190816/2019-08-16_7-18-26.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 16 Aug 2019 14:18:05 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
3Q GDP tracker from the Atlanta Fed In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is  on August 16, unchanged from August 15 after rounding. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -1.2 percent to 0.7 percent.

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Fri 16 Aug 2019 03:03:17 GMT

JP Morgan on the BOJ and below target JGB yields - something's gotta give

JPM say the Bank of Japan may allow further falls in JGB yields even after the 10 year dropped to its lowest since 2016 earlier today. - minus 0.255%, which is their lowest since July 2016 The BOJ then cut its purchases of JGBs at the operation today. JPM says the only small cut is reflective of the difficulties the BOJ faces. It's hard for the BOJ central bank to achieve all its goals, one of which is holding yields (on the 10-year yield) in a range  around 20bps within zero.

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JP Morgan on the BOJ and below target JGB yields - something's gotta give


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 16 Aug 2019 03:03:17 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
JPM say the Bank of Japan may allow further falls in JGB yields even after the 10 year dropped to its lowest since 2016 earlier today. - minus 0.255%, which is their lowest since July 2016 The BOJ then cut its purchases of JGBs at the operation today. JPM says the only small cut is reflective of the difficulties the BOJ faces. It's hard for the BOJ central bank to achieve all its goals, one of which is holding yields (on the 10-year yield) in a range  around 20bps within zero.

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Fri 16 Aug 2019 02:59:01 GMT

Another updated call for further RBNZ rate cuts ahead

UBS say they expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand  to have cut the cash rate in NZ to 0.5% by February 2020 - -25bp in November - -25 then in Feb.  Citing lower global growth, escalating US-China trade war

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Another updated call for further RBNZ rate cuts ahead


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 16 Aug 2019 02:59:01 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
UBS say they expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand  to have cut the cash rate in NZ to 0.5% by February 2020 - -25bp in November - -25 then in Feb.  Citing lower global growth, escalating US-China trade war

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Fri 16 Aug 2019 02:09:03 GMT

1

Mexico central bank gov says MXN could see new volatility

Banco de México governor Diaz De Leon in an interview On Thursday the . Bank of Mexico delivered a surprise 25 basis point rate cut Follow up interview with the Gov. 

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Mexico central bank gov says MXN could see new volatility


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190816/mexico.png Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 16 Aug 2019 02:09:03 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Banco de México governor Diaz De Leon in an interview On Thursday the . Bank of Mexico delivered a surprise 25 basis point rate cut Follow up interview with the Gov. 

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Fri 16 Aug 2019 01:16:57 GMT

2

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0312 (vs. yesterday at 7.0268)

People's Bank of China  The estimate I had seen via Reuters was for a rate of 7.0306. Pretty good! The uncertainty each day stems from the PBOC's 'countercyclical factor'. No one knows what that is. Which is just fine with the PBOC ;-)

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0312 (vs. yesterday at 7.0268)


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 16 Aug 2019 01:16:57 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
People's Bank of China  The estimate I had seen via Reuters was for a rate of 7.0306. Pretty good! The uncertainty each day stems from the PBOC's 'countercyclical factor'. No one knows what that is. Which is just fine with the PBOC ;-)

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Fri 16 Aug 2019 01:11:23 GMT

BOJ reduces its purchases of 5 -10 year JGBs for the first time since December of 2018

In the scheduled operation today For Japanese Government Bonds with 5 to 10 years remaining until maturity - purchase 450bn yen - previously 480 bn yen purchase Minimal yen response, which tends to be the usual case in news such as this. the first time it happened (a year ago? longer?) yen was bought but the FX market pretty much shrugs it off now.

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BOJ reduces its purchases of 5 -10 year JGBs for the first time since December of 2018


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 16 Aug 2019 01:11:23 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
In the scheduled operation today For Japanese Government Bonds with 5 to 10 years remaining until maturity - purchase 450bn yen - previously 480 bn yen purchase Minimal yen response, which tends to be the usual case in news such as this. the first time it happened (a year ago? longer?) yen was bought but the FX market pretty much shrugs it off now.

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 23:39:11 GMT

RBNZ says recent rate cuts will lead to higher inflation, GDP growth, support employment

Plenty of Reserve Bank of New Zealand news today! Earlier we had terse comments from Governor Orr: Orr was taking issue with an opinion piece in the NZ press from the business lobby:

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RBNZ says recent rate cuts will lead to higher inflation, GDP growth, support employment


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190704/rbnz.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 23:39:11 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Plenty of Reserve Bank of New Zealand news today! Earlier we had terse comments from Governor Orr: Orr was taking issue with an opinion piece in the NZ press from the business lobby:

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 23:11:20 GMT

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Here is the article that prompted the terse comeback from RBNZ Governor Orr

The comments on Reserve Bank of New Zealand  independence from Governor Orr are here earlier: Here is o the article written by Business NZ chief executive Kirk Hope that orr responded to:

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Here is the article that prompted the terse comeback from RBNZ Governor Orr


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 23:11:20 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
The comments on Reserve Bank of New Zealand  independence from Governor Orr are here earlier: Here is o the article written by Business NZ chief executive Kirk Hope that orr responded to:

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 23:00:47 GMT

2

Here's a little more on the dovish comments earlier from the Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari

Comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari are here: Reuters have a bit of a recap up with a little : more here - Trade tensions are making businesses cautious

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Here's a little more on the dovish comments earlier from the Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20151110/kashkari-dogs.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 23:00:47 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
Comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari are here: Reuters have a bit of a recap up with a little : more here - Trade tensions are making businesses cautious

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 21:59:49 GMT

RBNZ Gov Orr says global and domestic low inflation expectations key reason for lower official interest rates

Reserve Bank of New Zealand  Governor Adrian Orr Statement issued in response to a bit of controversial opinion piece from BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope.

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RBNZ Gov Orr says global and domestic low inflation expectations key reason for lower official interest rates


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190509/rbnz-orr-reserve-bank-of-new-zealand.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 21:59:49 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Reserve Bank of New Zealand  Governor Adrian Orr Statement issued in response to a bit of controversial opinion piece from BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope.

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 21:37:44 GMT

1

Fed's Kashkari says sees some signs of optimism on the economy

Reuters with comments from a radio interview with President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. - Fed will debate what to do on rates - He is leaning toward a further rate cut Kashkari tends to sit right up the dovish end of the FOMC table. Often alone. But on the right side most recently, K?

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Fed's Kashkari says sees some signs of optimism on the economy


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20160712/kashkari.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 21:37:44 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Reuters with comments from a radio interview with President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. - Fed will debate what to do on rates - He is leaning toward a further rate cut Kashkari tends to sit right up the dovish end of the FOMC table. Often alone. But on the right side most recently, K?

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 21:10:56 GMT

1

Just waking up? here is what wREHNched the EUR lower

Bank of Finland governor and therefore also a member of the ECB's rate-setting committee, Olli Rehn wrote in the WSJ on the potential for more easing ahead from the ECB

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Just waking up? here is what wREHNched the EUR lower


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190815/eurusd-chart-16-august-2019-rehn.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 21:10:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Bank of Finland governor and therefore also a member of the ECB's rate-setting committee, Olli Rehn wrote in the WSJ on the potential for more easing ahead from the ECB

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 20:49:06 GMT

3

Goldman Sachs Federal Reserve outlook and what to watch for in the US dollar

Via a GS note overnight on the Fed and USD -  not looking for as deep cuts from the FOMC as the market is expecting - GS expect another 50bp of rate cuts

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Goldman Sachs Federal Reserve outlook and what to watch for in the US dollar


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20170418/goldman-sachs.jpg Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 20:49:06 GMT
Category: Central Banks
3
Via a GS note overnight on the Fed and USD -  not looking for as deep cuts from the FOMC as the market is expecting - GS expect another 50bp of rate cuts

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 19:08:07 GMT

1

Fed's Bullard: We pay attention to markets and data

Comments from Bullard on Fox Business: He doesn't get too deep into monetary policy here. Previously, however, he was a bit more explicit that he didn't think it was time for another cut. He's omitted that (at least so far).

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Fed's Bullard: We pay attention to markets and data


Adam Button
Thu 15 Aug 2019 19:08:07 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Comments from Bullard on Fox Business: He doesn't get too deep into monetary policy here. Previously, however, he was a bit more explicit that he didn't think it was time for another cut. He's omitted that (at least so far).

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 18:01:15 GMT

3

Bank of Mexico delivers surprise 25 basis point rate cut

Mexico lowers rates to 8.00% from 8.25% Cuts, coming soon to a central bank near you. Economists were roughly divided on whether they would cut or not but the majority came down on the side of holding. The central bank said it wasn't a unanimous decision with one dissent.

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Bank of Mexico delivers surprise 25 basis point rate cut


Adam Button
Thu 15 Aug 2019 18:01:15 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
3
Mexico lowers rates to 8.00% from 8.25% Cuts, coming soon to a central bank near you. Economists were roughly divided on whether they would cut or not but the majority came down on the side of holding. The central bank said it wasn't a unanimous decision with one dissent.

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 17:39:11 GMT

1

Fed's Bullard to appear on TV at 3:05 pm ET

Bullard to speak The last time we heard from Bullard he was hinting that he wasn't eager to cut further. That was before the stock market rolled over. In the past, Bullard has shown that he's quick to switch gears based on the stock market. He turned around equities in 2014 hinting at QE4 after five days of selling in markets that were tied to a bizarre ebola scare.

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Fed's Bullard to appear on TV at 3:05 pm ET


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190815/bullard-bottom-f.png Adam Button
Thu 15 Aug 2019 17:39:11 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Bullard to speak The last time we heard from Bullard he was hinting that he wasn't eager to cut further. That was before the stock market rolled over. In the past, Bullard has shown that he's quick to switch gears based on the stock market. He turned around equities in 2014 hinting at QE4 after five days of selling in markets that were tied to a bizarre ebola scare.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 15 Aug 2019 13:47:16 GMT

6

ECB's Rehn says it's better to overshoot on stimulus than undershoot

The Bank of Finland governor in the WSJ The problem with advertising that you want to beat expectations is that a statement like that makes expectations more aggressive, so you risk falling short.

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ECB's Rehn says it's better to overshoot on stimulus than undershoot


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180518/0-olli-rehn.png Adam Button
Thu 15 Aug 2019 13:47:16 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
6
The Bank of Finland governor in the WSJ The problem with advertising that you want to beat expectations is that a statement like that makes expectations more aggressive, so you risk falling short.

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 02:40:01 GMT

Updated RBA forecast from CBA. A 25bp cut in November, another in February

The previous I had seen from CBA was for a cut in July, which they indeed got. November 5th  and February 4th (the first meeting for 2020) now the fresh forecast. 

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Updated RBA forecast from CBA. A 25bp cut in November, another in February


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 02:40:01 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The previous I had seen from CBA was for a cut in July, which they indeed got. November 5th  and February 4th (the first meeting for 2020) now the fresh forecast. 

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 01:50:08 GMT

1

PBOC inject one year funds via MLF

400bn yuan added into system in one year medium term lending facility - rate unchanged at 3.3% - offsetting the 400bn yuan injection is 383bn yuan maturing In addition, PBOC sell 30bn yuan of 7 day reverse repos

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PBOC inject one year funds via MLF


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 01:50:08 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
400bn yuan added into system in one year medium term lending facility - rate unchanged at 3.3% - offsetting the 400bn yuan injection is 383bn yuan maturing In addition, PBOC sell 30bn yuan of 7 day reverse repos

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Thu 15 Aug 2019 01:15:38 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0268 (vs. yesterday at 7.0312)

People's Bank of China setting the reference rate lower for USD/CNY, that is higher for the onshore yuan.  But … not as high as expected: -  Reuters estimate for the mid-rate was 7.0236 today. 

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0268 (vs. yesterday at 7.0312)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 01:15:38 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China setting the reference rate lower for USD/CNY, that is higher for the onshore yuan.  But … not as high as expected: -  Reuters estimate for the mid-rate was 7.0236 today. 

Asset 24 View More
Thu 15 Aug 2019 00:21:36 GMT

1

More on RBA Debelle comments on the inverting US yield curve

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle spoke earlier: And added, in the Q&A:  Following up with a little more n=on his yield curve comments:

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More on RBA Debelle comments on the inverting US yield curve


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20170721/rba-debelle.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 15 Aug 2019 00:21:36 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle spoke earlier: And added, in the Q&A:  Following up with a little more n=on his yield curve comments:

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Wed 14 Aug 2019 23:38:51 GMT

4

RBA dep gov says not sure how much signal to take from inversion of US yield curve

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle Q&A  - US yield curve is not the best signal of recession right now - outlook for domestic infrastructure investment is pretty solid --

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RBA dep gov says not sure how much signal to take from inversion of US yield curve


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 14 Aug 2019 23:38:51 GMT
Category: Central Banks
4
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle Q&A  - US yield curve is not the best signal of recession right now - outlook for domestic infrastructure investment is pretty solid --

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