Via Shane Oliver, Head of Investement Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital

Notes that the US FOMC dots are now showing 2 hikes in 2023
  • with the Fed more upbeat on outlook

Powell seemed more dovish in press conference though

  • downplayed the dots (take "with a grain of salt") 
  • but said Fed now "talking about talking about tapering" but "substantial further progress still a ways away"

Formal taper talk is likely to start at the next Fed meeting with tapering likely from later this year/early next

  • 2023 for the first Fed rate hike seems a reasonable expectation

Separately Oliver notes on the RBA

  • we still first RBA hike in 2023







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Thu 17 Jun 2021 01:15:24 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4298 (vs. yesterday at 6.4078)

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.   - USD/CNY is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4298 (vs. yesterday at 6.4078)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 01:15:24 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0


The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.   - USD/CNY is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:52:56 GMT

More from RBA's Lowe, says border closure could put upward pressure on wages

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe, earlier comments here: Q&A now: Headlines via Reuters The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on July 6, Lowe said in his earlier comments that the Board would be making a decision on yield targeting then. 

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More from RBA's Lowe, says border closure could put upward pressure on wages


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:52:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe, earlier comments here: Q&A now: Headlines via Reuters The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on July 6, Lowe said in his earlier comments that the Board would be making a decision on yield targeting then. 

Asset 24 View More
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:50:01 GMT

Merrill Lynch sticks to its forecast for Fed taper to begin early in 2022

ML with its response to the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. Snippet from their note:

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Merrill Lynch sticks to its forecast for Fed taper to begin early in 2022


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:50:01 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
ML with its response to the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. Snippet from their note:

Asset 24 View More
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:16:10 GMT

ANZ now forecasting an Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate hike in February 2022

ANZ on the RBNZ, shift forward their expectation (from August 2022) for a hike based on today's strong GDP data result. 

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ANZ now forecasting an Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate hike in February 2022


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:16:10 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
ANZ on the RBNZ, shift forward their expectation (from August 2022) for a hike based on today's strong GDP data result. 

Asset 24 View More
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:11:11 GMT

1

RBA Gov Lowe: Premature to be considering ending bond buying

Philip Lowe, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor speech - topic is: From Recovery to Expansion - venue is the Australian Farm Institute Conference Headlines via Reuters 

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RBA Gov Lowe: Premature to be considering ending bond buying


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20170905/lowe.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 17 Jun 2021 00:11:11 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Philip Lowe, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor speech - topic is: From Recovery to Expansion - venue is the Australian Farm Institute Conference Headlines via Reuters 

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:58:13 GMT

AUD traders - heads up for RBA Gov Lowe speaking soon

At  0010 GMT - Philip Lowe, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor speech - topic is: From Recovery to Expansion - venue is the Australian Farm Institute Conference

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AUD traders - heads up for RBA Gov Lowe speaking soon


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:58:13 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
At  0010 GMT - Philip Lowe, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor speech - topic is: From Recovery to Expansion - venue is the Australian Farm Institute Conference

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:41:47 GMT

BoC Gov Macklem says taking the recent strength of the CAD into account

Bank of Canada Gov Macklem: - The recent strength of the CAD could weigh on our projections, could cut exports, and we are taking that into account

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BoC Gov Macklem says taking the recent strength of the CAD into account


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:41:47 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Canada Gov Macklem: - The recent strength of the CAD could weigh on our projections, could cut exports, and we are taking that into account

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:25:11 GMT

JP Morgan says they continue to expect Fed interest rate hike lift-off in 2023, taper in early 2022

Snippet from JPM FOMC response JPM comments via Reuters 

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JP Morgan says they continue to expect Fed interest rate hike lift-off in 2023, taper in early 2022


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 23:25:11 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Snippet from JPM FOMC response JPM comments via Reuters 

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:57:11 GMT

More from BoC Gov. Macklem: Recent higher inflation reflects base-year effects

Earlier comments are here:  BoC Gov Macklem says economic recovery is make good progress Macklem speaking to an upper house committee in the Canadian parliament.  More remarks now:

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More from BoC Gov. Macklem: Recent higher inflation reflects base-year effects


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:57:11 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Earlier comments are here:  BoC Gov Macklem says economic recovery is make good progress Macklem speaking to an upper house committee in the Canadian parliament.  More remarks now:

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:33:33 GMT

BoC Gov Macklem says economic recovery is make good progress

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking to an upper house committee in the Canadian parliament. Via video conference.  Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

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BoC Gov Macklem says economic recovery is make good progress


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210121/macklem.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:33:33 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking to an upper house committee in the Canadian parliament. Via video conference.  Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:26:56 GMT

Goldman Sachs says more hawkish Fed expectations a 'headwind' for short USD

Goldman Sachs says they are still forecasting a weakening for the USD, citing: But: Goldman's has shut down their long EUR/USD trade recommendation after the FOMC Wednesday. ICYMI - Fed developments:

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Goldman Sachs says more hawkish Fed expectations a 'headwind' for short USD


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210616/powell-dots.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 22:26:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Goldman Sachs says they are still forecasting a weakening for the USD, citing: But: Goldman's has shut down their long EUR/USD trade recommendation after the FOMC Wednesday. ICYMI - Fed developments:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:54:32 GMT

Brazil's central bank hikes rates by 75bp, indicates it may do so again next meeting

Banco Central do Brasil​ hikes its benchmark interest rate to 4.25%, as polls expected.  Headlines via Reuters:

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Brazil's central bank hikes rates by 75bp, indicates it may do so again next meeting


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:54:32 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Banco Central do Brasil​ hikes its benchmark interest rate to 4.25%, as polls expected.  Headlines via Reuters:

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Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:48:00 GMT

CAD traders heads up - Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking soon

Macklem will be speaking in parliament before an upper house committee. The boss pulls the night shift! The BoC effectively bought a little time for loose monetary policy when its comments on tapering a few months back acted to support CAD, the gains for the currency have, in effect, been a defacto tightening (a little, not a lot). 

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CAD traders heads up - Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking soon


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200501/tiff-macklem.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 21:48:00 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Macklem will be speaking in parliament before an upper house committee. The boss pulls the night shift! The BoC effectively bought a little time for loose monetary policy when its comments on tapering a few months back acted to support CAD, the gains for the currency have, in effect, been a defacto tightening (a little, not a lot). 

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:41:34 GMT

1

Powell Q&A: It's clear we're on a path to a very strong labor market

Comments to reporters This is the end of the 'outcome-based Fed'. Powell is making all kinds projections about the coming months with an unusual amount of confidence that goes against what he's been saying for months.

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Powell Q&A: It's clear we're on a path to a very strong labor market


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210616/2021-06-16_14-41-17.png Adam Button
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:41:34 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Comments to reporters This is the end of the 'outcome-based Fed'. Powell is making all kinds projections about the coming months with an unusual amount of confidence that goes against what he's been saying for months.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:32:17 GMT

4

Powell opening statement: Indicators of activity and employment continue to improve

Highlights from Powell's opening statement The 5-year note yield is now up 10 bps to 0.88% on the day. That's a strong signal about how surprised the market is by this.

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Powell opening statement: Indicators of activity and employment continue to improve


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210616/powell-june-16-2021.png Adam Button
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:32:17 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
4
Highlights from Powell's opening statement The 5-year note yield is now up 10 bps to 0.88% on the day. That's a strong signal about how surprised the market is by this.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:20:54 GMT

1

Watch live: Powell holds press conference after Fed decision

Live feed of Powell's press conference Powell will appear with an opening statement at 2:30 pm ET and will take questions for around 35 minutes afterwards. The rule of thumb is that there is a minor retracement of any big move shortly before he speaks.

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Watch live: Powell holds press conference after Fed decision


Adam Button
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:20:54 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Live feed of Powell's press conference Powell will appear with an opening statement at 2:30 pm ET and will take questions for around 35 minutes afterwards. The rule of thumb is that there is a minor retracement of any big move shortly before he speaks.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:02:20 GMT

2

The FOMCs central tendencies and dot plot for the June 2021 meeting

June 2021 FOMC meeting  Dot Plot: The meeting shows: dot plot for the June FOMC dot plot from the March meeting 4 Fed officials expecting hikes in 2022 and 7 Fed officials in 2023

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The FOMCs central tendencies and dot plot for the June 2021 meeting


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210616/2021-06-16_11-01-00.jpg Greg Michalowski
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:02:20 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
June 2021 FOMC meeting  Dot Plot: The meeting shows: dot plot for the June FOMC dot plot from the March meeting 4 Fed officials expecting hikes in 2022 and 7 Fed officials in 2023

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:00:40 GMT

The full FOMC statement for June 2021 meeting

The June 2021 FOMC Statement Prior statement can be found . HERE For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

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The full FOMC statement for June 2021 meeting


Greg Michalowski
Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:00:40 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The June 2021 FOMC Statement Prior statement can be found . HERE For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 17:44:19 GMT

For reference: The previous FOMC statement

The April 28 FOMC statement It's a good habit to read the previous statement one last time before the new one is released: The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

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For reference: The previous FOMC statement


Adam Button
Wed 16 Jun 2021 17:44:19 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
The April 28 FOMC statement It's a good habit to read the previous statement one last time before the new one is released: The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 16:53:45 GMT

Fed dot plot primer: What will be the 2023 signal

The dot plot is in focus today In the most-recent Federal Reserve forecasts there were 7 dots showing a hike in 2023 and 11 showing the first hike later. That was a shift from December when just 5 Fed members forecast rate hikes in 2023.

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Fed dot plot primer: What will be the 2023 signal


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210616/2021-06-16_12-47-49.png Adam Button
Wed 16 Jun 2021 16:53:45 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
The dot plot is in focus today In the most-recent Federal Reserve forecasts there were 7 dots showing a hike in 2023 and 11 showing the first hike later. That was a shift from December when just 5 Fed members forecast rate hikes in 2023.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 11:46:23 GMT

ECB's Makhlouf: Too early to discuss end of PEPP now

The ECB continues to rebuff the above narrative There is a coherent message from the ECB this week and that is as what the headline reads out to be. Policymakers have signaled that they will only look to consider any potential changes in September so until then, expect the ECB to keep the status quo.

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ECB's Makhlouf: Too early to discuss end of PEPP now


Justin Low
Wed 16 Jun 2021 11:46:23 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
The ECB continues to rebuff the above narrative There is a coherent message from the ECB this week and that is as what the headline reads out to be. Policymakers have signaled that they will only look to consider any potential changes in September so until then, expect the ECB to keep the status quo.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 09:23:21 GMT

1

ECB's de Guindos: Policy should normalise gradually, with prudence

Remarks by ECB vice president, Luis de Guindos

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ECB's de Guindos: Policy should normalise gradually, with prudence


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190219/ecb-de-guindos.png Justin Low
Wed 16 Jun 2021 09:23:21 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
1
Remarks by ECB vice president, Luis de Guindos

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 08:31:22 GMT

ECB reportedly set to extend bank capital relief by nine months

Bloomberg reports The report says that the ECB is poised to allow lenders to continue to exclude deposits held at central banks when calculating their leverage ratio up until March next year, citing people familiar with the matter.

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ECB reportedly set to extend bank capital relief by nine months


Justin Low
Wed 16 Jun 2021 08:31:22 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Bloomberg reports The report says that the ECB is poised to allow lenders to continue to exclude deposits held at central banks when calculating their leverage ratio up until March next year, citing people familiar with the matter.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 16 Jun 2021 01:15:26 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.4078 (vs. yesterday at 6.4070)

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.   - USD/CNY is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.

View More

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.4078 (vs. yesterday at 6.4070)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 16 Jun 2021 01:15:26 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.   - USD/CNY is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.

Asset 24 View More

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