Author: Justin Low

St Louis Fed president, James Bullard, comments in an interview with the FT


  • The risk of a financial crisis remains
  • Without managing health policy, we could get a wave of substantial bankruptcies
  • That could feed into a financial crisis
  • It is probably prudent to keep our lending facilities in place for now
  • In any crisis, there can be twists and turns
  • The idea is to make sure that markets don't freeze up entirely
  • The committee expects to stay low, the markets also expect us to stay low
  • Not much impetus to add additional forward guidance as such
  • Yield curve control is down the list of priorities for the Fed
There isn't much takeaway from his comments but it mainly reaffirms that the current set of Fed policies will stay in place for quite some time until they are comfortable that we may not see a repeat of what happened back in March.

And as long as US coronavirus cases continue to pick up, that means the Fed will have to stay on their toes in case the market one day decides to turn sour again.

His full interview with the Financial Times can be found here.

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Thu 2 Jul 2020 01:15:40 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0566 (vs. yesterday at 7.0710)

People's Bank of China  PBOC to skip OMOS today - 70bn in reverse repos mature, thus a net drain of that amount. 

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0566 (vs. yesterday at 7.0710)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 2 Jul 2020 01:15:40 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0


People's Bank of China  PBOC to skip OMOS today - 70bn in reverse repos mature, thus a net drain of that amount. 

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 18:03:00 GMT

2

FOMC meeting minutes: Most Fed officials urged more explicit forward guidance

June FOMC meeting minutes LINK to the Meeting Minutes from hte FOMC

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FOMC meeting minutes: Most Fed officials urged more explicit forward guidance


Greg Michalowski
Wed 1 Jul 2020 18:03:00 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
June FOMC meeting minutes LINK to the Meeting Minutes from hte FOMC

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 17:54:13 GMT

FOMC meeting minutes at the top of the hour

No change in policy announced that they the last meeting The FOMC meeting minutes will be released at the top of the hour. At the last meeting the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 0% to 0.25%.  It did not announce any enhanced or guidance. It said that it was continuing to talk about the efficacy of any yield curve control policy.

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FOMC meeting minutes at the top of the hour


Greg Michalowski
Wed 1 Jul 2020 17:54:13 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
No change in policy announced that they the last meeting The FOMC meeting minutes will be released at the top of the hour. At the last meeting the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 0% to 0.25%.  It did not announce any enhanced or guidance. It said that it was continuing to talk about the efficacy of any yield curve control policy.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 15:40:58 GMT

Previewing the Fed Minutes

What to look for in today's Fed Minutes The Fed Minutes are out today and the market will be watching to see what comes of the event risk. But in reality, we would be surprised to see the market reacting all that much, given how updated we all are heading into the release. 

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Previewing the Fed Minutes


Forex Live
Wed 1 Jul 2020 15:40:58 GMT
Author: Forex Live
Category: Central Banks
0
What to look for in today's Fed Minutes The Fed Minutes are out today and the market will be watching to see what comes of the event risk. But in reality, we would be surprised to see the market reacting all that much, given how updated we all are heading into the release. 

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 15:05:36 GMT

4

Fed's Daly: Would be hesitant to call recent positive signs a recovery

SF Fed's Mary Daly is a nonvoting member on the Federal Reserve Board.  She is speaking in a virtual economic forum Fed's Daly - speaking in a virtual economic forum - is saying:

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Fed's Daly: Would be hesitant to call recent positive signs a recovery


Greg Michalowski
Wed 1 Jul 2020 15:05:36 GMT
Category: Central Banks
4
SF Fed's Mary Daly is a nonvoting member on the Federal Reserve Board.  She is speaking in a virtual economic forum Fed's Daly - speaking in a virtual economic forum - is saying:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 13:08:56 GMT

ECB Lane: Expects two steps forward, one step back recovery

ECB Lane interview being published nothing necessarily new in the comments

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ECB Lane: Expects two steps forward, one step back recovery


Greg Michalowski
Wed 1 Jul 2020 13:08:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
ECB Lane interview being published nothing necessarily new in the comments

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 11:17:19 GMT

BOE's Haskel: Believes that current monetary policy stance is appropriate

But says that the balance of risks are to the downside - Worryingly, indicators of rising unemployment are already revealing themselves - There remains a great deal of uncertainty as to how many of the currently furloughed workers will be able to return to their jobs On the bright side, Haskel says that activity appears to be coming back faster than what the BOE anticipated but I reckon it is a bit too early to draw conclusions from that. Overall labour market conditions will remain a key spot to watch in the months ahead.

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BOE's Haskel: Believes that current monetary policy stance is appropriate


Justin Low
Wed 1 Jul 2020 11:17:19 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
But says that the balance of risks are to the downside - Worryingly, indicators of rising unemployment are already revealing themselves - There remains a great deal of uncertainty as to how many of the currently furloughed workers will be able to return to their jobs On the bright side, Haskel says that activity appears to be coming back faster than what the BOE anticipated but I reckon it is a bit too early to draw conclusions from that. Overall labour market conditions will remain a key spot to watch in the months ahead.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 10:21:47 GMT

ECB's de Cos: Recent German court ruling won't affect future monetary policy

Comments by ECB governing council member, Pablo Hernandez de Cos In case you missed it, to keep with its QE program and have said they will no longer be involved in the matter. Once again, the drama is all for show as you would expect. Let's move on.

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ECB's de Cos: Recent German court ruling won't affect future monetary policy


Justin Low
Wed 1 Jul 2020 10:21:47 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments by ECB governing council member, Pablo Hernandez de Cos In case you missed it, to keep with its QE program and have said they will no longer be involved in the matter. Once again, the drama is all for show as you would expect. Let's move on.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 08:38:35 GMT

BOJ's Nakamura: BOJ has coped well with the impact from the virus fallout so far

Comments by newly appointed BOJ board member, Toyoaki Nakamura This is sort of his welcome speech and most of the time with new BOJ members, you can expect them to fall into line with what other policymakers have stated in the past.

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BOJ's Nakamura: BOJ has coped well with the impact from the virus fallout so far


Justin Low
Wed 1 Jul 2020 08:38:35 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments by newly appointed BOJ board member, Toyoaki Nakamura This is sort of his welcome speech and most of the time with new BOJ members, you can expect them to fall into line with what other policymakers have stated in the past.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 07:43:36 GMT

ECB's Panetta: Euro area has so far weathered the virus shock as well as could be expected

Comments by ECB executive board member, Fabio Panetta - European response to the coronavirus has been remarkable - We are now in a better position to watch how key developments play out After their latest move to increase the PEPP stimulus target, ECB policymakers may not have much else to do for the time being as long as market conditions keep the way they are. But as with any path to progression, complacency is something to watch out for.

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ECB's Panetta: Euro area has so far weathered the virus shock as well as could be expected


Justin Low
Wed 1 Jul 2020 07:43:36 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments by ECB executive board member, Fabio Panetta - European response to the coronavirus has been remarkable - We are now in a better position to watch how key developments play out After their latest move to increase the PEPP stimulus target, ECB policymakers may not have much else to do for the time being as long as market conditions keep the way they are. But as with any path to progression, complacency is something to watch out for.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 07:40:07 GMT

PBOC: China consumer prices to rise within a reasonable range this year

PBOC reaffirms that hyperinflation or deflation is unlikely to happen The Chinese central bank also vows to prevent such risks from occurring as the Chinese economy recovers from the virus fallout in recent months.

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PBOC: China consumer prices to rise within a reasonable range this year


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200423/china-gdp.png Justin Low
Wed 1 Jul 2020 07:40:07 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
PBOC reaffirms that hyperinflation or deflation is unlikely to happen The Chinese central bank also vows to prevent such risks from occurring as the Chinese economy recovers from the virus fallout in recent months.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 05:18:31 GMT

ECB's de Guindos: Ready to recalibrate unconventional measures against the pandemic

Some comments by ECB vice president, Luis de Guindos Besides that, the mention of a two-speed recovery across the region is an interesting point. The current set of policy measures may not be suitable for everyone if the crisis only serves to create a bigger divide in economic welfare among the bigger names.

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ECB's de Guindos: Ready to recalibrate unconventional measures against the pandemic


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190219/ecb-de-guindos.png Justin Low
Wed 1 Jul 2020 05:18:31 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Some comments by ECB vice president, Luis de Guindos Besides that, the mention of a two-speed recovery across the region is an interesting point. The current set of policy measures may not be suitable for everyone if the crisis only serves to create a bigger divide in economic welfare among the bigger names.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 03:37:55 GMT

PBoC says China's economy is recovering gradually, demand recovering fast

A relatively upbeat, People's Bank of China, saying:

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PBoC says China's economy is recovering gradually, demand recovering fast


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 1 Jul 2020 03:37:55 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
A relatively upbeat, People's Bank of China, saying:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 01:15:37 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0710 (vs. yesterday at 7.0795)

PBOC to skip OMOS today 180bn in reverse repos mature, thus a net drain of that amount.  

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0710 (vs. yesterday at 7.0795)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 1 Jul 2020 01:15:37 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
PBOC to skip OMOS today 180bn in reverse repos mature, thus a net drain of that amount.  

Asset 24 View More
Wed 1 Jul 2020 00:17:47 GMT

BOJ official comments on the latest data, finds a bright spot in supermarket sales

The very ugly Tankan report is here: Some poor soul at the BOJ has been tasked to provide media comments:

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BOJ official comments on the latest data, finds a bright spot in supermarket sales


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 1 Jul 2020 00:17:47 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The very ugly Tankan report is here: Some poor soul at the BOJ has been tasked to provide media comments:

Asset 24 View More
Tue 30 Jun 2020 23:50:57 GMT

Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan report - further falls

BOJ Q2 Tankan - Tankan Large Mfg Index comes in at -34 (from expected -31 & prior -8). Worsens for a 6th quarter in succession. Lowest since Dec of 2009. - Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index -17 (-20, 8). Worsens for 4 Qs in a row.  Poor results, yen non-impacted!

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Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan report - further falls


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 30 Jun 2020 23:50:57 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
BOJ Q2 Tankan - Tankan Large Mfg Index comes in at -34 (from expected -31 & prior -8). Worsens for a 6th quarter in succession. Lowest since Dec of 2009. - Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index -17 (-20, 8). Worsens for 4 Qs in a row.  Poor results, yen non-impacted!

Asset 24 View More
Tue 30 Jun 2020 22:52:56 GMT

BOJ dep gov says focus must shift to solvency problems that may arise due to coronavirus

Bank of Japan deputy governor Wakatabe & BOJ think tank head Sekine writing in today's Nikkei: - policymakers must increasingly shift focus from liquidity to solvency problems that may arise due to covid-19, Headlines via Reuters 

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BOJ dep gov says focus must shift to solvency problems that may arise due to coronavirus


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180605/wakatabe.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 30 Jun 2020 22:52:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Japan deputy governor Wakatabe & BOJ think tank head Sekine writing in today's Nikkei: - policymakers must increasingly shift focus from liquidity to solvency problems that may arise due to covid-19, Headlines via Reuters 

Asset 24 View More
Tue 30 Jun 2020 21:49:00 GMT

The PBOC will reduce funding costs for smaller firms and rural sectors from today

Justin had the report yesterday, posting here ICYMI: Gov Yi Hang

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The PBOC will reduce funding costs for smaller firms and rural sectors from today


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181014/yi-gang-pboc.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 30 Jun 2020 21:49:00 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Justin had the report yesterday, posting here ICYMI: Gov Yi Hang

Asset 24 View More
Tue 30 Jun 2020 15:06:40 GMT

1

Fed hasn't reached a consensus about when or whether to cap yields on short-term Treasurys

Report from the WSJ This is just out from the WSJ: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cap short-term Treasury yields as part of its initial package of economic stimulus measures, instead reserving the option to cap yields later. They story cites public comments but you never know what the WSJ knows. I'd say that the days of leaks to the journal are over but that sentiment still exists.

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Fed hasn't reached a consensus about when or whether to cap yields on short-term Treasurys


Adam Button
Tue 30 Jun 2020 15:06:40 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Report from the WSJ This is just out from the WSJ: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cap short-term Treasury yields as part of its initial package of economic stimulus measures, instead reserving the option to cap yields later. They story cites public comments but you never know what the WSJ knows. I'd say that the days of leaks to the journal are over but that sentiment still exists.

Asset 24 View More
Tue 30 Jun 2020 15:02:17 GMT

Fed's Williams: There are indications that recovery slowing in states with outbreaks


Adam Button
Tue 30 Jun 2020 15:02:17 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments from Williams in a speech

Asset 24 View More
Tue 30 Jun 2020 14:28:46 GMT

BOE's Cunliffe says that on negative rates we should not draw dogmatic lines

Comments from the Deputy Governor: The BOE needs to make a decision on negative rates  and either drop it or put it on the table. This wishy-washy business is unhelpful.

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BOE's Cunliffe says that on negative rates we should not draw dogmatic lines


Adam Button
Tue 30 Jun 2020 14:28:46 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments from the Deputy Governor: The BOE needs to make a decision on negative rates  and either drop it or put it on the table. This wishy-washy business is unhelpful.

Asset 24 View More
Tue 30 Jun 2020 10:37:22 GMT

4

French banks reportedly lobbying to convince ECB to permit dividend payments in Q4

Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter The sources say that they are trying to convince the ECB to permit payouts in Q4, and that some ECB supervisory board members are sympathetic so much so to allow banks to possibly make small payments this year on a case-to-case basis.

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French banks reportedly lobbying to convince ECB to permit dividend payments in Q4


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200630/greed.gif Justin Low
Tue 30 Jun 2020 10:37:22 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
4
Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter The sources say that they are trying to convince the ECB to permit payouts in Q4, and that some ECB supervisory board members are sympathetic so much so to allow banks to possibly make small payments this year on a case-to-case basis.

Asset 24 View More
Tue 30 Jun 2020 10:11:41 GMT

BOE's Haldane: Risks to the economy remain considerable, two-sided

Comments by BOE chief economist, Andy Haldane He is sort of justifying his dissent at the latest BOE policy meeting two weeks ago with the remarks above. So, while they seem a tad more upbeat, just be mindful that it was a 8-1 decision at the time. The full text of his speech can be found .

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BOE's Haldane: Risks to the economy remain considerable, two-sided


Justin Low
Tue 30 Jun 2020 10:11:41 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments by BOE chief economist, Andy Haldane He is sort of justifying his dissent at the latest BOE policy meeting two weeks ago with the remarks above. So, while they seem a tad more upbeat, just be mindful that it was a 8-1 decision at the time. The full text of his speech can be found .

Asset 24 View More
Tue 30 Jun 2020 09:47:49 GMT

2

PBOC to reduce funding costs for smaller firms and rural sectors from 1 July - report

The Securities Times reports that the PBOC will cut its re-discount and re-lending rates starting from tomorrow The move will help to reduce funding costs for smaller firms and rural sectors, adding to continued efforts by the central bank and local authorities to bolster economic activity and lessen the burden amid the impact from the virus outbreak.

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PBOC to reduce funding costs for smaller firms and rural sectors from 1 July - report


Justin Low
Tue 30 Jun 2020 09:47:49 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
2
The Securities Times reports that the PBOC will cut its re-discount and re-lending rates starting from tomorrow The move will help to reduce funding costs for smaller firms and rural sectors, adding to continued efforts by the central bank and local authorities to bolster economic activity and lessen the burden amid the impact from the virus outbreak.

Asset 24 View More

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