GMTAuthor: Adam Button

Quarles on the economy

  • Inflation may be a faulty indicator of the broader economic cycle, masking overheating
  • Some potential for labor force participation to rise
  • US economy in a good spot, data suggest strong growth
  • Reasons for optimism for higher potential growth rate
  • Amid uncertainty a gradual, predictable rate policy is best
  • Fed as close to dual mandate as it's been in a long time

What's the signal here? He's upbeat on the economy and is certainly not hinting at any kind of pause in the next six months. Overall, it's a hawkish message.

"Perhaps inflation is just sending a signal of people's trust in the Fed's ability to meet its inflation objective. If so, no complaints here. That is a good thing," he said. "However, a problem does arise if the Fed remains reliant on inflation as our only gauge of the economy's position relative to its potential."


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Thu 18 Oct 2018 15:27:10 GMT

2

Draghi said to tell EU leaders the eurozone outlook is positive

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Draghi said to tell EU leaders the eurozone outlook is positive


Adam Button
Thu 18 Oct 2018 15:27:10 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2


Small pop in the euro The euro jumped 20 pips on this headline but it's nothing new and it's right back down. More: ForexLive

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Trade ideas thread - Thursday 18 October 2018
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Thu 18 Oct 2018 14:36:58 GMT

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Fed's Bullard: Willing to go along with hikes so far but they should stop

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Adam Button
Thu 18 Oct 2018 14:36:58 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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Bullard comments to reporters ForexLive

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Thu 18 Oct 2018 13:39:29 GMT

Fed's Bullard: Can't infer any more that low unemployment will cause inflation

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Fed's Bullard: Can't infer any more that low unemployment will cause inflation


Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Oct 2018 13:39:29 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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May be answering questions after speech in Memphis Fed's Bullard is speaking in Memphis. He seems to be answering audience questions now: ForexLive

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Thu 18 Oct 2018 12:58:01 GMT

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Fed's Bullard: Weak inflation means the Fed doesn't need to hike further

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Fed's Bullard: Weak inflation means the Fed doesn't need to hike further


Adam Button
Thu 18 Oct 2018 12:58:01 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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St Louis Fed president Bullard Bullard was slated to speak at 10 minutes after the hour but the comments are out early. ForexLive

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Thu 18 Oct 2018 09:00:01 GMT

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ECB's Nowotny says would welcome Weidmann candidacy to succeed Draghi

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ECB's Nowotny says would welcome Weidmann candidacy to succeed Draghi


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181018/18-10-2018-1-15-41-pm.png Justin Low
Thu 18 Oct 2018 09:00:01 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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ECB's Ewald Nowotny comments in an interview - Considers it a serious mistake by Merkel to no longer pursue Weidmann's candidacy - Would be good if someone from the largest Eurozone economy heads the ECB ForexLive

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Thu 18 Oct 2018 08:44:47 GMT

ECB's Rehn: Sees first rate hike in Q4 2019 if economic outlook holds

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ECB's Rehn: Sees first rate hike in Q4 2019 if economic outlook holds


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180518/0-olli-rehn.png Justin Low
Thu 18 Oct 2018 08:44:47 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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Further comments by ECB member Olli Rehn on the day - Markets appear to be reading ECB's forward guidance correctly ForexLive Well, when you say "through the summer of 2019" as many times as the ECB has over the past few months then surely the people will get the message. Markets are not pricing in the first rate hike by the ECB until September 2019 at the moment. But again, all this hinges on the economy and the inflation outlook holding up.

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Thu 18 Oct 2018 08:27:25 GMT

ECB's Rehn says risks of no-deal Brexit has grown over the past few months

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ECB's Rehn says risks of no-deal Brexit has grown over the past few months


Justin Low
Thu 18 Oct 2018 08:27:25 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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ECB member Olli Rehn weighs in with his thoughts ForexLive

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Thu 18 Oct 2018 05:11:26 GMT

BOJ downgrades assessment for 2 of 9 regions in latest economic report

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BOJ downgrades assessment for 2 of 9 regions in latest economic report


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20170803/0-japan.jpg Justin Low
Thu 18 Oct 2018 05:11:26 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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BOJ releases its latest regional economic report for the month of October - Maintains assessment for 7 of Japan's 9 regions - Hokkaido downgraded due to the effects of the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake ForexLive

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Thu 18 Oct 2018 01:15:52 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9275 (vs. yesterday at 6.9103)

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9275 (vs. yesterday at 6.9103)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 18 Oct 2018 01:15:52 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The USD traded up and up and up overnight, USD/CNY not getting left behind by the PBOC today with a weakening for the onshore yuan … a big one! Earlier:

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Thu 18 Oct 2018 00:33:29 GMT

1

BOJ's Kuroda: BOJ will keep rates low for an extended period

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BOJ's Kuroda: BOJ will keep rates low for an extended period


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 18 Oct 2018 00:33:29 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaking to a branch manager meeting K's remark on inflation around 1% … that doesn't sound great given the target is 2%, but it is a higher rate than the BOJ is accustomed to. 

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Wed 17 Oct 2018 18:00:30 GMT

FOMC minutes: Number of Fed officials saw the need to hike above long-run level

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FOMC minutes: Number of Fed officials saw the need to hike above long-run level


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180502/fomc-federal-reserve.png Adam Button
Wed 17 Oct 2018 18:00:30 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The minutes of the September 26 FOMC meeting - Gradual approach balances risk of going too fast and too slow - Almost all policy makers considered it appropriate to remove reverences to monetary policy being accommodative in statement. The market is seeing the minutes as hawkish on first blush. Here's what Morgan Stanley said before the release:

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Wed 17 Oct 2018 17:49:36 GMT

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FOMC minutes coming up. How to trade them

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FOMC minutes coming up. How to trade them


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181015/powell-unimpressed.png Adam Button
Wed 17 Oct 2018 17:49:36 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
What to watch for The FOMC minutes are among the most-overrated releases out there. Generally the trade is to fade any significant move because what's said in the minutes is always far more nuanced than the headlines.

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Wed 17 Oct 2018 14:36:51 GMT

2

BOE's Cunliffe: You could see a big sterling fall depending on Brexit outcome

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BOE's Cunliffe: You could see a big sterling fall depending on Brexit outcome


Adam Button
Wed 17 Oct 2018 14:36:51 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
More from Cunliffe Speaking the obvious here. ForexLive

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Wed 17 Oct 2018 14:20:16 GMT

Atlanta Fed GDPNow dips to 3.9% from 4.0%

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow dips to 3.9% from 4.0%


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181017/2018-10-17_7-16-53.jpg Greg Michalowski
Wed 17 Oct 2018 14:20:16 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Back below 4% The Atlanta Fed is out with their latest estimate for US 3Q GDP.  In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 

Asset 24 View More
Wed 17 Oct 2018 13:22:04 GMT

1

BOE's Cunliffe speaks in parliament - watch live

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BOE's Cunliffe speaks in parliament - watch live


https://videoplayback.parliamentlive.tv/Player/Index/aabcbf61-7ef6-4384-ac4e-129b6f6bfafb?audioOnly=False&autoStart=False&statsEnabled=False Adam Button
Wed 17 Oct 2018 13:22:04 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
BOE deputy governor for financial stability Cunliffe speaks at his re-appointment hearing link ForexLive

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Wed 17 Oct 2018 07:37:17 GMT

ECB's Praet: Forward guidance supports a durable return of inflation to central bank's target

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ECB's Praet: Forward guidance supports a durable return of inflation to central bank's target


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20151027/ecb's-praet.jpg Justin Low
Wed 17 Oct 2018 07:37:17 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments by ECB chief economist Peter Praet Not anything new that will impact the euro on the day. EUR/USD stays lower on the day at 1.1556 with EUR/GBP trading sluggishly around 0.8776 currently.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 17 Oct 2018 03:38:42 GMT

2

ANZ on the Fed - close to neutral, to pause soon

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ANZ on the Fed - close to neutral, to pause soon


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181017/aud-anz-fed.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 17 Oct 2018 03:38:42 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
Here is a just a quick summary of the latest from ANZ on the Federal Reserve The note is detailed, but that's the summary. --- From the note, implications for the AUD and NZD:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 17 Oct 2018 01:18:44 GMT

Wednesday brings the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes - preview

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Wednesday brings the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes - preview


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 17 Oct 2018 01:18:44 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee minutes due Wednesday US time  Via Barclays: Nomura:  

Asset 24 View More
Wed 17 Oct 2018 01:16:15 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9103 (vs. yesterday at 6.9119)

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9103 (vs. yesterday at 6.9119)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 17 Oct 2018 01:16:15 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Slightly stronger again for the onshore yuan today, just by a few points though  The Bank skips open market operations today There have been a couple of interesting items on the yuan the past day or so:

Asset 24 View More
Tue 16 Oct 2018 22:39:26 GMT

BRL: Brazil Bolsonaro says if elected central bank will remain independent

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BRL: Brazil Bolsonaro says if elected central bank will remain independent


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 16 Oct 2018 22:39:26 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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Brazil's presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro  Just a post for the BRL traders, given Bolsonaro is a front runner (by far) in polls ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Tue 16 Oct 2018 22:13:38 GMT

2

More from RBA's Debelle: Drag on economy from lower house prices is unclear

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More from RBA's Debelle: Drag on economy from lower house prices is unclear


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 16 Oct 2018 22:13:38 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
RBA Deputy Governor Debelle spoke earlier, now the Q&A  - Says the drag on the economy from lower house prices is still unclear The RBA are a happy bunch indeed. I wonder what they are looking at to be so sanguine?

Asset 24 View More
Tue 16 Oct 2018 21:21:33 GMT

1

RBA's Debelle says unemployment could fall further before wages pick up

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RBA's Debelle says unemployment could fall further before wages pick up


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20170721/rba-debelle.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 16 Oct 2018 21:21:33 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
RBA Dep Gov Debelle speech on the labour market in Australia  full text: The point about Debelle's comments here is he doesn't doesn't see rising wages, which would be a precondition (so the current thinking goes) for a pick up in core inflation  and thus a move from the RBA to hike rates.

Asset 24 View More
Tue 16 Oct 2018 21:09:19 GMT

2

More Fed's Daly: Stock market correction not necessarily a worrisome thing

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More Fed's Daly: Stock market correction not necessarily a worrisome thing


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181016/mary-daly-fed.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 16 Oct 2018 21:09:19 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
Yeah, especially when it goes back through the rook like it did today More: - Financial conditions and fiscal stimulus are among the tailwinds for the economy

Asset 24 View More
Tue 16 Oct 2018 20:42:55 GMT

Fed's Daly: Inflation effectively at target, beyond full employment, growth robust

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Fed's Daly: Inflation effectively at target, beyond full employment, growth robust


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 16 Oct 2018 20:42:55 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Speaking in a Q&A session Comments along the lines we have to come expect from most Fed officials now. Nothing in the remarks to suggest any cessation of interest rate hikes yet to come.

Asset 24 View More

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