Reuters citing ECB sources

  • New rift is growing over future stimulus and economic projections
  • ECB hawks wanted in Sept to quietly reduce the pace of PEPP bond purchases, objected to projections excluding key fiscal measures
  • Doves rejected top timid language on euro strength and growth risks
That's an interesting look at the state of play at the ECB.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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Mon 28 Sep 2020 09:26:30 GMT

BOE's Ramsden: We are not about to use negative rates imminently

Ramsden says that he still sees the effective lower bound at 0.10% The BOE's communication on negative rates has been all over the place, so I wouldn't put too much attachment to Ramsden's remarks. But for now, it is enough to give the pound a decent lift, with cable looking to firmly clear its 200-hour moving average @ 1.2831.

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BOE's Ramsden: We are not about to use negative rates imminently


Justin Low
Mon 28 Sep 2020 09:26:30 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0


Ramsden says that he still sees the effective lower bound at 0.10% The BOE's communication on negative rates has been all over the place, so I wouldn't put too much attachment to Ramsden's remarks. But for now, it is enough to give the pound a decent lift, with cable looking to firmly clear its 200-hour moving average @ 1.2831.

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Mon 28 Sep 2020 01:16:05 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8252 (vs. Friday at 6.8121)


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 28 Sep 2020 01:16:05 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
 People's Bank of China  

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Mon 28 Sep 2020 00:15:17 GMT

Westpac have cancelled their October RBA rate cut forecast

Now forecasting November instead, at the Nov 3 meeting. NAB is October or November CBA and ANZ are both not in October either.

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Westpac have cancelled their October RBA rate cut forecast


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 28 Sep 2020 00:15:17 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Now forecasting November instead, at the Nov 3 meeting. NAB is October or November CBA and ANZ are both not in October either.

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Sun 27 Sep 2020 20:46:53 GMT

Another ECB member weighs in a warning about EUR - Visco worried by EUR strength - mentions intervention

European Central Bank member and Italy's central bank governor Ignazio Visco  spoke at an event on Sunday.  Sabre rattling from Visco.  EUR has backed off from recent highs but not by much. 

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Another ECB member weighs in a warning about EUR - Visco worried by EUR strength - mentions intervention


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20150624/visco-(2).jpg Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 27 Sep 2020 20:46:53 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
European Central Bank member and Italy's central bank governor Ignazio Visco  spoke at an event on Sunday.  Sabre rattling from Visco.  EUR has backed off from recent highs but not by much. 

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Sun 27 Sep 2020 20:08:26 GMT

ECB de Cos says no room for complacency on the euro exchange rate

European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos in an article in Spain's La Razon newspaper over the weekend. The 'between the lines' message on the EUR is he doesn't want it appreciating much more. 

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ECB de Cos says no room for complacency on the euro exchange rate


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190901/de-cos.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 27 Sep 2020 20:08:26 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos in an article in Spain's La Razon newspaper over the weekend. The 'between the lines' message on the EUR is he doesn't want it appreciating much more. 

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Sun 27 Sep 2020 20:03:36 GMT

BoE Tenreyro says the evidence on negative rates is encouraging

A weekend report in the UK Telegraph - interview with Silvana Tenreyro, member of the monetary policy committee at the Bank of England. Silvana Tenreyro “We have been discussing our toolkit in recent months, including how effective negative rates might be in the current context ... The evidence has been encouraging.”

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BoE Tenreyro says the evidence on negative rates is encouraging


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200804/japan-uk.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 27 Sep 2020 20:03:36 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
A weekend report in the UK Telegraph - interview with Silvana Tenreyro, member of the monetary policy committee at the Bank of England. Silvana Tenreyro “We have been discussing our toolkit in recent months, including how effective negative rates might be in the current context ... The evidence has been encouraging.”

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Fri 25 Sep 2020 16:22:04 GMT

Fed's George: Economic recovery far from complete

Kansas City Feds Esther George Kansas City Feds Esther George is speaking. She says - economic recovery far from complete - household, commercial strains could damage banks George is not a voting member on the FOMC board in 2020

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Fed's George: Economic recovery far from complete


Greg Michalowski
Fri 25 Sep 2020 16:22:04 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Kansas City Feds Esther George Kansas City Feds Esther George is speaking. She says - economic recovery far from complete - household, commercial strains could damage banks George is not a voting member on the FOMC board in 2020

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Fri 25 Sep 2020 09:08:52 GMT

2

ECB's de Cos: The issuance of a digital euro is not foreseen in the immediate future

Comments by ECB governing council member, Pablo Hernandez de Cos The future may be digital but we're not quite there yet. I would argue that payment systems need to be almost entirely digitalised for this to happen, though more talk about the issue will only help to speed things up over the next decade or so.

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ECB's de Cos: The issuance of a digital euro is not foreseen in the immediate future


Justin Low
Fri 25 Sep 2020 09:08:52 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
2
Comments by ECB governing council member, Pablo Hernandez de Cos The future may be digital but we're not quite there yet. I would argue that payment systems need to be almost entirely digitalised for this to happen, though more talk about the issue will only help to speed things up over the next decade or so.

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Fri 25 Sep 2020 07:16:03 GMT

1

ECB's Villeroy: ECB might let inflation rise above 2% for some time

Further comments by Villeroy First, he says that one should not assume that they will follow the Fed's strategy and then he delivers such a headline remark. I reckon we can all look past the semantics because in the race to the bottom, nobody wants to get left behind.

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ECB's Villeroy: ECB might let inflation rise above 2% for some time


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200925/9-25-2020-3-24-13-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 25 Sep 2020 07:16:03 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
1
Further comments by Villeroy First, he says that one should not assume that they will follow the Fed's strategy and then he delivers such a headline remark. I reckon we can all look past the semantics because in the race to the bottom, nobody wants to get left behind.

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Fri 25 Sep 2020 07:06:51 GMT

4

ECB's Villeroy: Inflation is not yet where we want it

Villeroy stating the obvious - There is no doubt about our determination to act as much as needed - We have ample room to manoeuvre - ECB has 'free hands' for future action Some token remarks by Villeroy, but essentially he is just trying to reaffirm the narrative that the ECB can still do more in order to get inflation back on track.

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ECB's Villeroy: Inflation is not yet where we want it


Justin Low
Fri 25 Sep 2020 07:06:51 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
4
Villeroy stating the obvious - There is no doubt about our determination to act as much as needed - We have ample room to manoeuvre - ECB has 'free hands' for future action Some token remarks by Villeroy, but essentially he is just trying to reaffirm the narrative that the ECB can still do more in order to get inflation back on track.

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Fri 25 Sep 2020 03:50:30 GMT

2

ANZ do not expect the RBA to cut in October

There are plenty of Reserve Bank of Australia opinions all over the place: - Westpac are tipping a cut:  - NAB are also, but say October or November: 

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ANZ do not expect the RBA to cut in October


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 25 Sep 2020 03:50:30 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
There are plenty of Reserve Bank of Australia opinions all over the place: - Westpac are tipping a cut:  - NAB are also, but say October or November: 

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Fri 25 Sep 2020 01:18:41 GMT

WSJ says RBA will not cut the cash rate at the October meeting

Reserve Bank of Australia opinions flying about, these from earlier: A piece now from the (may be gated), a 'no cut'. In brief: Wall Street Journal Also this:

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WSJ says RBA will not cut the cash rate at the October meeting


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200925/rba.png Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 25 Sep 2020 01:18:41 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Reserve Bank of Australia opinions flying about, these from earlier: A piece now from the (may be gated), a 'no cut'. In brief: Wall Street Journal Also this:

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Fri 25 Sep 2020 01:16:11 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8121 (vs. yesterday at )

People's Bank of China onshore USD/yuan mid-rate  - 110 bn in RRs mature today - Net drain is therefore 20 bn yuan     

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8121 (vs. yesterday at )


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 25 Sep 2020 01:16:11 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China onshore USD/yuan mid-rate  - 110 bn in RRs mature today - Net drain is therefore 20 bn yuan     

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Fri 25 Sep 2020 00:50:46 GMT

CBA is forecasting the RBA on hold at the next meeting

Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate to remain unchanged at the October 6 meetings is CBA's call. CBA says the cash rate to remain at 0.25% (CBA also reiterate their expectation that negative rates in Australia re extraordinarily unlikely).

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CBA is forecasting the RBA on hold at the next meeting


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 25 Sep 2020 00:50:46 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate to remain unchanged at the October 6 meetings is CBA's call. CBA says the cash rate to remain at 0.25% (CBA also reiterate their expectation that negative rates in Australia re extraordinarily unlikely).

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Thu 24 Sep 2020 19:34:09 GMT

7

Fed's Brainard seen as front-runner for Biden's Treasury Secretary role

Elizabeth Warren seen as far less likely It's way too soon to be talking about Biden's cabinet but Bloomberg reports that Brainard has the inside track on the job.

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Fed's Brainard seen as front-runner for Biden's Treasury Secretary role


Adam Button
Thu 24 Sep 2020 19:34:09 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
7
Elizabeth Warren seen as far less likely It's way too soon to be talking about Biden's cabinet but Bloomberg reports that Brainard has the inside track on the job.

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Thu 24 Sep 2020 18:05:02 GMT

1

Mexico lowers benchmark rate to 4.25% from 4.50%

There was some confusion about this The Banco de Mexico cut rates to 4.25% from 4.50%. This was a generally expected move but it wasn't unanimously expected by economists with 4 of 23 in the Bloomberg survey calling for no change.

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Mexico lowers benchmark rate to 4.25% from 4.50%


Adam Button
Thu 24 Sep 2020 18:05:02 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
There was some confusion about this The Banco de Mexico cut rates to 4.25% from 4.50%. This was a generally expected move but it wasn't unanimously expected by economists with 4 of 23 in the Bloomberg survey calling for no change.

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Thu 24 Sep 2020 18:01:03 GMT

Fed's Williams: Structural inequality stifles growth

Williams comments on racial and income disparity No comments on monetary policy. We'll watch for a Q&A later.

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Fed's Williams: Structural inequality stifles growth


Adam Button
Thu 24 Sep 2020 18:01:03 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Williams comments on racial and income disparity No comments on monetary policy. We'll watch for a Q&A later.

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Thu 24 Sep 2020 17:41:32 GMT

1

Fed's Bullard: Our QE policy is 'about right' for now

Comments from Bullard: I think it's highly likely that inflation will be at 2% of above in Q2 of 2021 as a vaccine is rolled out and there are extremely easy year-over-year comps on gasoline and clothing. The Fed can look through that but I wonder if the bond market will get jittery.

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Fed's Bullard: Our QE policy is 'about right' for now


Adam Button
Thu 24 Sep 2020 17:41:32 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Comments from Bullard: I think it's highly likely that inflation will be at 2% of above in Q2 of 2021 as a vaccine is rolled out and there are extremely easy year-over-year comps on gasoline and clothing. The Fed can look through that but I wonder if the bond market will get jittery.

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Thu 24 Sep 2020 17:05:45 GMT

1

Fed's Barkin: Having rates lower for longer does not mean 0% forever

Fed's Barkin speaking - He is less worried about the possibility of inflation escalating in the near future - Inflation not that far off to percent target - Inflation expectations are stable and well anchored Fed's Barkin is a nonvoting member on the FOMC in 2020

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Fed's Barkin: Having rates lower for longer does not mean 0% forever


Greg Michalowski
Thu 24 Sep 2020 17:05:45 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Fed's Barkin speaking - He is less worried about the possibility of inflation escalating in the near future - Inflation not that far off to percent target - Inflation expectations are stable and well anchored Fed's Barkin is a nonvoting member on the FOMC in 2020

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Thu 24 Sep 2020 16:03:16 GMT

2

Fed's Bullard says 'sort of full recovery' possible this year

Comments from the St Louis Fed President Almost everything Bullard says is questionable in one way or another. Add this to the list. I can't imagine any market participants taking him seriously.

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Fed's Bullard says 'sort of full recovery' possible this year


Adam Button
Thu 24 Sep 2020 16:03:16 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
2
Comments from the St Louis Fed President Almost everything Bullard says is questionable in one way or another. Add this to the list. I can't imagine any market participants taking him seriously.

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Thu 24 Sep 2020 15:26:54 GMT

3

Powell: There is downside risk to economy if no further gov't support

Powell has made this point before The update today is that Congress looks like it will go on recess after the government funding bill passes. The Senate will return for a vote on the Supreme Court but that's it.

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Powell: There is downside risk to economy if no further gov't support


Adam Button
Thu 24 Sep 2020 15:26:54 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
3
Powell has made this point before The update today is that Congress looks like it will go on recess after the government funding bill passes. The Senate will return for a vote on the Supreme Court but that's it.

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Thu 24 Sep 2020 14:18:43 GMT

3

BOE's Bailey: We should have negative rates in toolbox

Comment from the BOE leader The communication on this has been poor. There's no reason the BOE couldn't look at this behind closed doors then decide whether or not it's feasible before floating the idea publicly. Moreover, negative rates have been used for years in Switzerland and they're just getting around to examining them now?

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BOE's Bailey: We should have negative rates in toolbox


Adam Button
Thu 24 Sep 2020 14:18:43 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
3
Comment from the BOE leader The communication on this has been poor. There's no reason the BOE couldn't look at this behind closed doors then decide whether or not it's feasible before floating the idea publicly. Moreover, negative rates have been used for years in Switzerland and they're just getting around to examining them now?

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Thu 24 Sep 2020 13:24:22 GMT

4

Fed's Rosengren: There are headwinds ahead for the US economy

Boston Fed Rosengren speaking Yesterday Rosengren mirrored this comment saying he was

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Fed's Rosengren: There are headwinds ahead for the US economy


Greg Michalowski
Thu 24 Sep 2020 13:24:22 GMT
Category: Central Banks
4
Boston Fed Rosengren speaking Yesterday Rosengren mirrored this comment saying he was

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