Fed Quarles speaking in Washington on banking supervision

Fed's Quarles is speaking in Washington on banking supervision at the American Bar Association banking Law committee annual meeting.  

The transcript of his speech includes no comments on monetary policy where the economy.  

He is expected to answer questions from the audience after his speech. 

ForexLive

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Fri 17 Jan 2020 17:44:51 GMT

Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 4Q GDP growth 1.8% unchanged from last report

Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for January 17, 2020  The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is  on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau and industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 1.4 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real residential investment growth from 4.3 percent to 5.5 percent.

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 4Q GDP growth 1.8% unchanged from last report


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200117/2020-01-17_10-43-55.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 17 Jan 2020 17:44:51 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0


Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for January 17, 2020  The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is  on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau and industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 1.4 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real residential investment growth from 4.3 percent to 5.5 percent.

Asset 24 View More
Trade ideas thread - European session 17 January 2020
Asset 41
Fri 17 Jan 2020 16:35:59 GMT

NY Fed Nowcast forecast for 4Q growth ticks up to 1.2% from 1.1% last week

Housing starts, JOLTs job openings and Retail sales contributed to the gain this week The New York Fed Nowcast forecast for 4Q GDP growth has ticked up to 1.2% from 1.1% last week.

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NY Fed Nowcast forecast for 4Q growth ticks up to 1.2% from 1.1% last week


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200117/2020-01-17_9-29-56.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 17 Jan 2020 16:35:59 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Housing starts, JOLTs job openings and Retail sales contributed to the gain this week The New York Fed Nowcast forecast for 4Q GDP growth has ticked up to 1.2% from 1.1% last week.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 17 Jan 2020 14:38:46 GMT

7

Harker: Fed interventions in the repo market are temporary

Harker in the Q&A The Fed will never say 'no' to Wall Street. They haven't done it in more than a decade. ForexLive

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Harker: Fed interventions in the repo market are temporary


Adam Button
Fri 17 Jan 2020 14:38:46 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
7
Harker in the Q&A The Fed will never say 'no' to Wall Street. They haven't done it in more than a decade. ForexLive

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Fri 17 Jan 2020 14:02:36 GMT

Fed's Harker: I believe inflation nearing 2% target

Harker comments: The headline is notable because once they arrive at the target, a few hawks are going to break away and start pushing for hikes. Since the Fed is the one driving this market, that's going to be a watershed.

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Fed's Harker: I believe inflation nearing 2% target


Adam Button
Fri 17 Jan 2020 14:02:36 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Harker comments: The headline is notable because once they arrive at the target, a few hawks are going to break away and start pushing for hikes. Since the Fed is the one driving this market, that's going to be a watershed.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 17 Jan 2020 01:15:37 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8878 (vs. yesterday at 6.8807)

People's Bank of China  Injects 200bn yuan via 14 day RRs today. For the week injects a total of 900 bn yuan - 600 bn yuan through 14-day reverse repo - 300 bn yuan via MLF loans Bring on the New Year holiday (liquidity provision ahead of this) 

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8878 (vs. yesterday at 6.8807)


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 17 Jan 2020 01:15:37 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China  Injects 200bn yuan via 14 day RRs today. For the week injects a total of 900 bn yuan - 600 bn yuan through 14-day reverse repo - 300 bn yuan via MLF loans Bring on the New Year holiday (liquidity provision ahead of this) 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 17 Jan 2020 00:56:47 GMT

2

Bank of Korea leaves rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected

South Korea's central bank leaving its benchmark rate unchanged. - as unanimously expected. We are beginning to get 'green shoots' in Asia with exports improving in December (data from Singapore, Japan, Taiwan and Korea indicating).

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Bank of Korea leaves rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 17 Jan 2020 00:56:47 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
South Korea's central bank leaving its benchmark rate unchanged. - as unanimously expected. We are beginning to get 'green shoots' in Asia with exports improving in December (data from Singapore, Japan, Taiwan and Korea indicating).

Asset 24 View More
Fri 17 Jan 2020 00:06:26 GMT

1

Poll of economists - most of them say ECB should not move from negative rates (you know what to do)

Reuters poll in 60 economists on the European Central Bank  - 47 of the 60 say Eurozone growth has bottomed out (but won't necessarily bounce much) - 46 of 57 say the ECB should not abandon negative rates in 2020 From the report:

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Poll of economists - most of them say ECB should not move from negative rates (you know what to do)


Eamonn Sheridan
Fri 17 Jan 2020 00:06:26 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Reuters poll in 60 economists on the European Central Bank  - 47 of the 60 say Eurozone growth has bottomed out (but won't necessarily bounce much) - 46 of 57 say the ECB should not abandon negative rates in 2020 From the report:

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Thu 16 Jan 2020 22:57:33 GMT

1

(ICYMI) President Trump to nominate Shelton and Waller to Federal Reserve Board

It was way back in July last year, so ICYforget too I guess …  The process is moving forward, Trump formally nominating them now, sending to the Senate for approval:

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(ICYMI) President Trump to nominate Shelton and Waller to Federal Reserve Board


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 16 Jan 2020 22:57:33 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
It was way back in July last year, so ICYforget too I guess …  The process is moving forward, Trump formally nominating them now, sending to the Senate for approval:

Asset 24 View More
Thu 16 Jan 2020 18:52:39 GMT

2

Atlanta Fed GDPNow falls to 1.8% from 2.3% last week

The retail sales data is to blame Citing the US retail sales report from earlier today, the Atlanta Fed has lowered it's estimate for 4Q growth to 1.8% from 2.3%. In their own words:

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow falls to 1.8% from 2.3% last week


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200116/2020-01-16_11-52-08.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 16 Jan 2020 18:52:39 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
The retail sales data is to blame Citing the US retail sales report from earlier today, the Atlanta Fed has lowered it's estimate for 4Q growth to 1.8% from 2.3%. In their own words:

Asset 24 View More
Thu 16 Jan 2020 12:30:23 GMT

ECB: There are some indications of a mild increase in core inflation

ECB releases the account of its December monetary policy meeting - There had been solid upward movement in underlying inflation, excl. holiday prices - Data pointing to weak but stabilising growth dynamics ForexLive

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ECB: There are some indications of a mild increase in core inflation


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20170519/ecb.jpg Justin Low
Thu 16 Jan 2020 12:30:23 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
ECB releases the account of its December monetary policy meeting - There had been solid upward movement in underlying inflation, excl. holiday prices - Data pointing to weak but stabilising growth dynamics ForexLive

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Thu 16 Jan 2020 09:34:22 GMT

10

Germany BDI industry association sees German economic growth at 0.5% this year

Their calendar-adjusted forecast is for growth of 0.1% ForexLive That pretty much fits the thinking that we'll likely see more economic stagnation in Germany - largely led by the manufacturing recession. The good news is that so far, that hasn't spilled over to other key areas of the economy i.e. services sector, labour market.

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Germany BDI industry association sees German economic growth at 0.5% this year


Justin Low
Thu 16 Jan 2020 09:34:22 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
10
Their calendar-adjusted forecast is for growth of 0.1% ForexLive That pretty much fits the thinking that we'll likely see more economic stagnation in Germany - largely led by the manufacturing recession. The good news is that so far, that hasn't spilled over to other key areas of the economy i.e. services sector, labour market.

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Thu 16 Jan 2020 08:07:42 GMT

PBOC official: RRR is at appropriate level, there is limited room for further cuts

PBOC head of monetary policy, Sun Guofeng, is speaking - Whether rate cut is needed depends on liquidity - Current liquidity conditions are reasonable - PBOC will keep liquidity stable ahead of Chinese New Year period ForexLive

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PBOC official: RRR is at appropriate level, there is limited room for further cuts


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190104/china.png Justin Low
Thu 16 Jan 2020 08:07:42 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
PBOC head of monetary policy, Sun Guofeng, is speaking - Whether rate cut is needed depends on liquidity - Current liquidity conditions are reasonable - PBOC will keep liquidity stable ahead of Chinese New Year period ForexLive

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Thu 16 Jan 2020 07:15:14 GMT

PBOC to keep liquidity at reasonably ample levels this year - official

The head of the PBOC's monetary policy department, Sun Guofeng, remarks in a column in China Finance magazine - PBOC to keep liquidity at reasonably ample level this year The usual comments by the Chinese central bank but if anything else, this just reaffirms that we can expect more easing of monetary conditions this year as already seen by the as seen earlier this month.

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PBOC to keep liquidity at reasonably ample levels this year - official


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20171128/pboc.png Justin Low
Thu 16 Jan 2020 07:15:14 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
The head of the PBOC's monetary policy department, Sun Guofeng, remarks in a column in China Finance magazine - PBOC to keep liquidity at reasonably ample level this year The usual comments by the Chinese central bank but if anything else, this just reaffirms that we can expect more easing of monetary conditions this year as already seen by the as seen earlier this month.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 16 Jan 2020 04:21:26 GMT

PBOC statement on the phase 1 trade deal - good for stability

People's Bank of China says the currency components within the trade deal signed Wednesday in Washington are good for market stability - reiterates China will open up its financial industry in an orderly way I posted earlier on the FX part of the agreement, it adds nothing to what China has already agreed with the G20. 

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PBOC statement on the phase 1 trade deal - good for stability


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 16 Jan 2020 04:21:26 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China says the currency components within the trade deal signed Wednesday in Washington are good for market stability - reiterates China will open up its financial industry in an orderly way I posted earlier on the FX part of the agreement, it adds nothing to what China has already agreed with the G20. 

Asset 24 View More
Thu 16 Jan 2020 01:15:49 GMT

1

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8807 (vs. yesterday at 6.8845)

People's Bank of China  Injects 300bn yuan via 14 day RRs ForexLive

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8807 (vs. yesterday at 6.8845)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 16 Jan 2020 01:15:49 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
People's Bank of China  Injects 300bn yuan via 14 day RRs ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Wed 15 Jan 2020 22:14:20 GMT

1

ASB says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can be patient - no rate cut soon

As part of their NZ inflation data preview ASB express caution on the RBNZ outlook.  (bolding mine) The RBNZ have been forthright with their comments about wanting inflation higher, but if ASB are correct on their outlook for CPI the Bank can indeed be patient.

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ASB says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can be patient - no rate cut soon


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 15 Jan 2020 22:14:20 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
As part of their NZ inflation data preview ASB express caution on the RBNZ outlook.  (bolding mine) The RBNZ have been forthright with their comments about wanting inflation higher, but if ASB are correct on their outlook for CPI the Bank can indeed be patient.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 15 Jan 2020 19:02:14 GMT

Beige Book: US activity continued to expand modestly in final 6 weeks of 2019

Comments in the Beige Book That doesn't sound like an economy where the stock market has risen 15% since October. At some point there needs to be a pickup in growth to justify the expectations that markets have built in.

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Beige Book: US activity continued to expand modestly in final 6 weeks of 2019


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190904/beige-book.png Adam Button
Wed 15 Jan 2020 19:02:14 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments in the Beige Book That doesn't sound like an economy where the stock market has risen 15% since October. At some point there needs to be a pickup in growth to justify the expectations that markets have built in.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 15 Jan 2020 17:30:28 GMT

Trump gives a shout out to Fed chair candidate Kevin Warsh

Trump to Warsh Warsh lost out to Jerome Powell for the Fed top job but Trump has frequently blamed Powell for his woes and said this to Warsh: "I could've used you a little bit here...why weren't you a little more forceful when you wanted that job?"

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Trump gives a shout out to Fed chair candidate Kevin Warsh


Adam Button
Wed 15 Jan 2020 17:30:28 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Trump to Warsh Warsh lost out to Jerome Powell for the Fed top job but Trump has frequently blamed Powell for his woes and said this to Warsh: "I could've used you a little bit here...why weren't you a little more forceful when you wanted that job?"

Asset 24 View More
Wed 15 Jan 2020 16:34:57 GMT

Fed's Daly: Inflation is subdued in part because of global factors

Daly comments: It's a Goldilocks scenario. ForexLive

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Fed's Daly: Inflation is subdued in part because of global factors


Adam Button
Wed 15 Jan 2020 16:34:57 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Daly comments: It's a Goldilocks scenario. ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Wed 15 Jan 2020 16:07:33 GMT

1

Fed's Harker: Sept turmoil showed pool of reserves needed was larger than thought

Comments from Harker: : Harker says rater are in a good place unless there is a substantial change in inflation. ForexLive

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Fed's Harker: Sept turmoil showed pool of reserves needed was larger than thought


Adam Button
Wed 15 Jan 2020 16:07:33 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Comments from Harker: : Harker says rater are in a good place unless there is a substantial change in inflation. ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Wed 15 Jan 2020 15:37:34 GMT

2

Fed's Kaplan: Fed reserve management has some effect on risk assets

Kaplan on the balance sheet: The Fed faces some kind of reckoning about it's "non-QE" balance sheet expansion. It's clear that a few members don't like the implication that's it's goosing equities.

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Fed's Kaplan: Fed reserve management has some effect on risk assets


Adam Button
Wed 15 Jan 2020 15:37:34 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
2
Kaplan on the balance sheet: The Fed faces some kind of reckoning about it's "non-QE" balance sheet expansion. It's clear that a few members don't like the implication that's it's goosing equities.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 15 Jan 2020 10:11:34 GMT

4

ECB's Holzmann: ECB strategic review will start next week

Comments by ECB governing council member, Robert Holzmann - Low, negative rates may have long-term impact - Possible negative impact is on productivity, banks and financial stability His remarks on negative rates aren't anything new as he is one of those who opposed the September stimulus package - saying that "negative rates send the wrong signal".

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ECB's Holzmann: ECB strategic review will start next week


Justin Low
Wed 15 Jan 2020 10:11:34 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
4
Comments by ECB governing council member, Robert Holzmann - Low, negative rates may have long-term impact - Possible negative impact is on productivity, banks and financial stability His remarks on negative rates aren't anything new as he is one of those who opposed the September stimulus package - saying that "negative rates send the wrong signal".

Asset 24 View More
Wed 15 Jan 2020 09:24:47 GMT

BOE's Saunders: Would not say that a rate cut now is precautionary

Further remarks by BOE policymaker, Michael Saunders - Risk management is an extra argument for a rate cut - But the case for one also stands without this - Economic data justifies a rate cut during the last couple of meetings Again, just be reminded that Saunders is one of the two dissenters since that have been calling for a rate cut since the November policy meeting. Hence, his remarks above are not that surprising as they are in-line with his views and current stance.

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BOE's Saunders: Would not say that a rate cut now is precautionary


Justin Low
Wed 15 Jan 2020 09:24:47 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Further remarks by BOE policymaker, Michael Saunders - Risk management is an extra argument for a rate cut - But the case for one also stands without this - Economic data justifies a rate cut during the last couple of meetings Again, just be reminded that Saunders is one of the two dissenters since that have been calling for a rate cut since the November policy meeting. Hence, his remarks above are not that surprising as they are in-line with his views and current stance.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 15 Jan 2020 08:42:02 GMT

1

BOE's Saunders: Aggressive steps needed given limited monetary policy space

Saunders continues to state his case for dissent - It probably will be appropriate to maintain an expansionary monetary policy - And also to possibly cut rates further The pound is continuing to linger at session lows with cable down to 1.3001 currently as Saunders reaffirms his position in dissenting and voting in favour of cutting rates.

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BOE's Saunders: Aggressive steps needed given limited monetary policy space


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190207/boe.png Justin Low
Wed 15 Jan 2020 08:42:02 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
1
Saunders continues to state his case for dissent - It probably will be appropriate to maintain an expansionary monetary policy - And also to possibly cut rates further The pound is continuing to linger at session lows with cable down to 1.3001 currently as Saunders reaffirms his position in dissenting and voting in favour of cutting rates.

Asset 24 View More

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