Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session


Forex news for NY trading on May 17, 2019.

In other markets:

  • Spot gold $-9 or -0.70% at $1277.75. For the second day in a row, the USD rise, hurt investors in gold
  • WTI crude oil futures fell $-.18 or -0.29% at $62.69
  • Bitcoin on Coibase fell $592 to $7075. The digital currency fell to a low price of $6600 earlier in the day session. In one fell swoop, that retraced over 50% of the move up from the April 26th low.  The price ended up rebounding to back above the $7000, but it put a sour taste in the mouths of the bulls who - prior to today - were looking at a low for the Monday to Friday week at $6864 (on Monday) and a high at $8377.77.  All of that gain had disappeard on the run to the low today.

The data today in the US came in better than expectation and higher vs last month, and that helped to propel the USD to the strongest of the major currencies today.  The AUD was the weakest on the day.

Bitcoin tumbled in trading today.

The USD was the strongest of the majors for the 2nd day in a row today (see ranking of the major currencies below). There were three main catalysts fundamentally that helped the greenback. 

The USD was the strongest of the major currencies for the 2nd day in a row

One was the surge in the Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment (expectations and current conditions also rose nicely. For the headline number it soared from 97.2 last month to 102.4. That took the index to the highest level in 15 years. The expectations componen also soared 96.0 from 87.4 last month. It too was a 15 year high.

The 2nd main catalyst, was reports throughout the day that the US/Canada/Mexico would abolish the steel and aluminum tariffs along with other retaliatory tariffs including Kentucky bourbon and dairy products. They also pledged to finally work to ratify the USMCA trade agreement which has been in limbo for a number of months, largely due to the tariffs which remained (now that wasn't hard, was it). 

The third catalyst was that the White House will postpone tariffs on EU and Japan auto cars and parts for 180 days.  

Now it was not all rainbows and unicorns. The day started on a weak note with concerns about the US/China and ended the day with same concerns. 

In the Asian session, Xinhua and People's Daily carried pieces saying China may have no interest in continuing trade negotiations for now.  Later in the day, Hu Xijin of the Global Times tweeted that 

China will certainly retaliate for barbaric suppression Huawei received. It's a unanimous attitude of officials and ordinary people. I believe Beijing is selecting retaliation targets and approaches, minimizing damage to itself and not weakening confidence in China's opening up.

And CNBC had, their own tweet saying:

Scheduling for the next round of talks is "in flux" because it is unclear what the two sides would negotiate, two sources said. China has not signaled it is willing to revisit past promises on which it reneged earlier this month.

The last tweet, sent US stocks lower. The major indices ended the session lower on the day and nearer the session lows. Below are the low to high trading ranges and the close levels.

The US stocks are ending near the session lows for the day.

That fall, took some of the bull out of the USDJPY, USDCHF. The US and Canada trade news, also benefitted the CAD more than the USD and helped to weaken the USD a bit in the NY afternoon session.  

Some fundamental/technical/price action highlights:

  • The GBPUSD is closing at the day and week lows and trading at the lowest level since January 15th.  PM May is on life support and the UK government is not making any progress on a Brexit deal  The GBPUSD was down each day this week and 9 of the last 10 days.  
  • The EURUSD is also closing near the low for the day/low for the week. It's high was on Monday at 1.12628 and low was today at 1.1155 (we are closing just above that level).  The low from May 3 is at 1.11345 and is the next target for the pair.
  • The USDJPY was able to extend above a swing area at 110.02-04 when stocks were moving higher today, but came off on the late day sell off and is trading right around that swing area at the end of the week. Next week, it will be a barometer for bulls and bears.
  • The USDCAD continued its up and down runs this week. Today, the pair moved above 1.3500 level (a key ceiling area) and continued to a high of 1.35128. However, the US/Canada/Mexico deal helped to push the CAD higher (USDCAD lower) and the pair tumbled back lower.   The pair is up on the week (1.3411 to 1.3460) but it was not without ups and downs from start to finish.  
The NZDUSD and AUDUSD are also ending at the lows for the week. Each were hurt by the breakdown of US/China talks. For the AUDUSD this week, the jobs report showed unemployment rising to 5.2% from 5.0%. That sent analysts to calll for a cut at the next RBA meeting on June 4. Time will tell. 

Wishing you all a great weekend. Thank you for your support. 

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Author: Justin Low


Forex news from the European morning session - 17 May 2019



  • JPY leads, GBP lags on the day
  • European equities lower; E-minis down 0.5%
  • US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 2.376%
  • Gold down 0.1% to $1,285.83
  • WTI up 1.0% to $63.52
  • Bitcoin down 6.4% o $7,190

EOD 17-05
Market sentiment remains cautious for the most part as China produced a hard stance against US, questioning the latter's sincerity in trade talks. That kept the yen on the front foot with USD/JPY mostly holding lower around 109.60-70 levels throughout the session.

However, it was the pound that was the main mover as things just get worse and worse for the quid this week. Although expected, cross-party Brexit talks between the government and Labour met its imminent collapse today and there doesn't seem to be much hope for May's withdrawal agreement bill to pass in parliament still.

Cable started the session around 1.2780 levels but fell to fresh four-month lows just before the official announcement and remains pressured ahead of North American trading, lingering near 1.2750 currently.

The dollar is mostly steady as risk sentiment is rather cautious in European morning trade with US equity futures holding weaker alongside Treasury yields. The greenback is mainly advancing against the commodity currencies as trade tensions continue to weigh on the bloc.

AUD/USD continues to sit near session lows around 0.6873-80 while USD/CAD is trading higher, testing levels near 1.3500 before backing off slightly during the session.

Looking ahead, expect traders to still focus on the ebb and flow as risk sentiment continues to be the main driver of markets currently. US-China trade tensions is still the crux of what is affecting that so watch out for potential headlines to come in the session ahead as we look to wrap up the trading week.

WCRS 17-05

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Forex news for Asia trading Friday, May 17 2019

We didn't get too much impactful news nor data today and forex reflected this in tight ranges.

Until, that is, news filtered out that Chinese state media carried reports saying China was not much interested in talks with US on trade for now. China says the recent approach from the US has lacked sincerity and that the moves against Huawei in past days are 'tricks'.  

In past minutes USD/JPY has dropped towards 109.70 after being briefly above 110 earlier in the session. USD/CNY has been a mover today also, above 6.9 for the first time since December last year. While the PBOC is concerned that a weakening yuan will prompt capital outflow they are not doing much right now to halt the slide. 7 is perhaps a line in the sand but that is yet to come.

GBP is down a few points on the session, EUR is barely changed. NZD and AUD, too, are not too far away from late US levels. Australia heads into a Federal election this weekend (ICYMI) - polls are very tight but have the opposition slightly ahead.

Moves today for the Turkish Lira, with the US taking away Turkey's preferred trade status. On the other hand steel tariffs on the country have been dropped back to where they were last year before President Trump doubled them. TRY is net weaker on the session.

Bitcoin too has been a mover, it plunged nearly a 1000USD to under 7000. The only news I have seen on it is the closure of a New Zealand 'exchange', but that's was a couple of days ago so its hardly breaking.

Forex news for Asia trading Friday, May 17 2019

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Forex news for NY trading on May 16, 2019.

In other markets:

  • Spot gold $-9.96 or -0.77% at $1286.57
  • WTI crude oil futures plus $1.05 or 1.69% $63.07

The data today in the US came in better than expectation and higher vs last month, and that helped to propel the USD to the strongest of the major currencies today.  The AUD was the weakest on the day.

From the economic releases today:

  •  US housing starts and building permits beat expectations and were higher than the prior month
  • Initial jobless claims came back down after what may have been faulty Easter seasonal (212K vs 220K est and 225K 4-week average).
  • The Philadelphia Fed this is the business outlook was also much better than expected 16.6 versus 9.0 estimate
Although Fed's Brainard and Kashkari, were probably more dovish vs hawkish, the data kept the dollar bid. 

The dollar was also helped by rising stocks.  Both the S&P and the Nasdaq indices moved back above their 50 day MAs at 2866.47 and 7861 respectively. Although they closed off their highs, the gains were still pretty decent.  European major indices also moved higher in the session and closed pinned against the day highs.

Below are the % changes and the high to low ranges as welll.

The % changes of the major currencies.

The markets were also influenced by other nations "stories"

In the UK, PM May is as lame a PM as you can get. The question is can anything get done with regard to a unified/passable Brexit solution, as she tries to work a deal with Labour. It seems like an impossible task.  As a result, May will likely try to pass her failed plan once again in early June.  Meanwhile Conservative lawmakers are looking for May to outline a timetable for her resignation in case the plan is not passed (which is not likely). The net result is chaos and lack of progress continues to weigh on the GBPUSD, and led to it trading to the 1.2800 level today, and down for the fourth day this week.  

In Japan, the government is thinking about lowering projections for the government and the trade war with the US and China is taking a toll economically.  That helped to weaken the JPY and send the USDJPY from a low at around 109.34 to a high that came up just short of the 110.00 level. 

The AUDUSD was hurt in the early NY session by an article in the Australian Herald Sun, from RBA watcher Terrry McCrann saying that the RBS will cut rates at its next meeting in 18 days as a result of the unemployment rate moving back up to 5.2% from 5.0% expectations.  That helped to send the AUDUSD lower. It is closing near it's lows.    

The NZDUSD also followed the USD trend and reversed earlier gains into the London session up to 0.6582, and later took out the Asian session low at 0.6544 on its way to new lows at 0.6532. The next hurdle is the low from last Wednesday after the RBNZ cut rates by 25 bps. That level comes in at 0.6520.  

So overall, a positive day for the greenback, helped by good data, strong stocks, and some weaknees in the  other countries. 

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