Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex news for NY trading on April 23, 2018

In other markets today:

  • Spot gold $-11.56 or -0.87% at $1324
  • WTI crude oil futures rose $.51 or 0.75% to $68.91.  The price was lower earlier in the session but rose to three-year highs as the Saudi-Yemen conflict heats up.  Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen launched an unsuccessful missile attack against Saudi Arabia.  Meanwhile a Saudi kingdom "led force killed a senior leader of the rebel group" according to Bloomberg
  • The US stocks ending the session with modest changes.   The S&P index closed near unchanged.  The NASDAQ fell -0.25%. The Dow fell -0.06%.
  • In the US debt markets yields were a bit higher (but off the high yields of the day).  2 year 2.474%, +1.7 basis points.  Five-year 2.820%, +2.0 basis points.  10 year 2.975%, +1.5 basis points.  30 year 3.143%, -0.2 basis points
In the NY session today, the Chicago Fed national activity index came in bit weaker than expected at 0.10 versus 0.27 expected. That was offset by better-than-expected market services PMI (54.4 versus 54.1 expected).  Existing home sales were also higher than consensus estimates. The annualized rate moved to 5.6 million versus 5.55 million expected.


The dollar was already the strongest of the major currencies at the start of the NY session with gains of 
  • 0.48% vs the JPY 
  • 0.42% vs the EUR and 
  • 0.29% vs the GBP.  
At the close, the greenback was higher by 
  • 0.98 vs the JPY, 
  • 0.66% against the EUR and 
  • 0.42% vs the GBP
It was a strong day for the dollar bulls. 

In addition to some better data, perhaps helping the cause was some short covering in the USD.  As Adam reported late Friday, the weekly commitment of traders showed that the EUR longs hit a record (dollar shorts). The EURUSD has been trending to the downside over the last 5 trading days and hit the lowest level since March 1 today. The GBP has also been long. That too has been a trend like move to the downside over the last 5 trading days. 

Technicals were also in play:

The EURUSD moved below a swing area at 1.2248-601 and continued to step down to the key 100 day MAa at 1.22048. The pair is closing right near that level, and it should be a barometer for the buyers and sellers in the new trading day.

The USDJPY traded to the highest level since February 13th on the break of the 107.895 today. The move above opened the door for more buying.  Helping was perhaps BOJs Kurodas comment saying "I don't know why the Japanese Yen is seen as a safe currency".  I am with you Mr. Kuroda.  Technically, the pair also moved above the 38.2% of the move down from the November high at 108.469.  The 100 day MA at 108.969 will be eyed in the new trading day.  

The GBPUSD continued its fall lower (5 days in a row down). The price stayed below a broken lower trend line at 1.40205 level. The pair chased a lower trend line on the hourly chart at  1.3909 currently. Close resistance comes in at 1.3965-81 now.

The USDCAD traded above the 50% of the move down from the March high and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2819-26 without much trouble. The high reached 1.2857 (trades at 1.2841 at the end of day).  Stay above the 1.2819-26 is more bullish.  

At the Sohn conference in NYC some trades included:
  • DR Horton
  • Long oil ETF (XOP)/ short Facebook (Gundlach).
  • Long Box.  
  • CVS. Larry Robbins and 
  • Bitcoin is going to $90K (from below $9K now.  Why not?  Bitcoin ended the day -$17 at $8873. The 100 day MA is above at $9216. The 200 day MA is at $9818.   Get above those MAs and the drive toward $90K can start (or at least look a little more bullish).  

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Author: Justin Low

Forex news from the European trading session - 23 April 2018

Economic data:

Government/Central banks:

Markets:

  • USD leads on the day, JPY lags behind
  • European equities mostly a little lower on the day
  • Gold down by 0.51% at $1,328.77
  • WTI dwn by 0.39% to $68.13
  • US 10-year yields higher by 1.7 bps to 2.977%
  • Bitcoin up by 4.4% to $8,903

The main story for the day so far has been US dollar strength. The dollar index is higher by 0.4%, touching highs last seen on 1 March - almost seven weeks - bolstered by higher yields. There wasn't much two-way action to go by as the dollar caught a broad bid across the major bloc and it has been one-way movement up until now.


EUR/USD touched a high of 1.2293 ahead of the European session but quickly faltered and continues to trade near session lows currently at 1.2230. It's been a tough session for the euro and manufacturing PMI readings continue to feed the negative sentiment on Eurozone growth as well.

USD/JPY meanwhile is the biggest beneficiary of the the dollar story as 10-year yields close in on the elusive 3% level. That has seen the pair break free of the 61.8 retracement level @ 107.87 and the pair currently trades above 108.00 for the first time in two months. The next key upside level to watch out for the pair is the 100-day MA @ 109.04.

As for GBP/USD, the pair lingered around 1.4000 for the most part but eventually fell back down after the dollar was bid. The pair took out the 1.3980 support level here and now looks set for a further downside move as expectations for a BOE rate hike dwindle down and questions are now being raised of the UK leaving the EU customs union in the event of Brexit.

Commodity currencies are the middle men of the pack, with the loonie, aussie, and kiwi lower against the dollar for the most part. The aussie and kiwi though look set to break key levels as mentioned here and here respectively, which could open further downside pain in AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

The move so far today is pretty much a continuation of last week's trading theme, where the dollar was the star performer on the week.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
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Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Monday 23 April 2018

Not much of a session here for movement to kick off the week.

USD/JPY traded a little higher, very little, with encouraging developments on the Korean peninsula being reported:

The easing of North/South Korean tension should be a yen negative, and probably more than it was as the range was very small indeed. Resistance persists ahead of 108 but the sellers are being nibbled away at.

The CHF also slid a tiny amount, USD/CHF up very small, not too much change for EUR/CHF on the day.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both little altered after minor wiggles only during the day here: GBP/USD the better of these two.

There has been a little AUD/NZD buying: AUD?YSD is net up fw tics while NZD/USD down a wee amount.

Gold is down a few cents,

In all, despite plenty of news and headlines over the weekend, little movement on the forex to report. We await Europe/UK and then US trade for direction.

Still to come:

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Author: Adam Button
2

Forex news for North American trade on April 20, 2018:

Fedspeak:

Markets:

  • Gold down $9 to $1336
  • WTI crude flat at $68.26
  • S&P 500 down 22 points to 2670
  • US 10-year yields up 4.5 bps to 2.95% -- highest close of the year
  • USD leads, NZD lags

The Canadian dollar was in focus to start the day but the US dollar stole the show later, aided by rising Treasury yields.

Both top-tier Canadian releases were poor with retail sales ex-autos flat compared to +0.4% expected. Core CPI measures were also a touch soft and the loonie was roundly hit. USD/CAD rose to 1.2750 and finished at the lows of the day, in a poor sign for the week ahead.

The rest of the commodity currencies also struggled. AUD/USD extended lower after an outside day on Thursday and finished down 60 pips to 0.7670.

In cable, Carney's BBC interview continued to resonate with many backing away from a May rate hike, or at least getting some seriously-cold feet. Support at 1.4000 has held so far.

EUR/USD whimpered and Draghi had some dovish comments. It was getting smoked and hit 1.2250 but fixing demand drew a line under it and bounced to 1.2288.

If you're looking for more on the ECB, check out the webinar here: Fate of the single currency to be decided by forthcoming ECB meeting

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