A look at safe haven assets as we brace for a period of uncertainty Ongoing discussions are swirling about President Trump and President Xi's meeting at the G20 summit In Japan. This was a high-stakes meeting with concerns about a slowdown in global growth, through a protracted trade war, the forefront of investors' minds. It is not hard to see why this is the case since 40% of the world's GDP comes from the combined economies of the US and China. The meeting left many questions unanswered, and ultimately a backpedaling from the implementation of tariffs. Trade with CMS Prime today However, given Trump's volatile nature, nobody knows if further tariffs will be threatened, making traditional safe haven assets enticing. This article will point out some of the go to safe haven assets that should interest you should the ongoing trade war take a turn for the worst. ForexLive Going for Gold With the Federal Reserve having recently signaled a rate cut in July there is now a growing expectation of a global low interest rate landscape that could last for some time. One of the results of this has been the growing value of Gold against the USD. Before the last FOMC meeting Gold was kept underneath key weekly resistance on the XAU/USD chart, but with the dovish shift from the Fed Gold broke out of that level. See chart below: The technical breakout is clean and convincing and a downturn in the latest G20 US-China trade talks will result in further Gold buying. The downside of owning Gold is that, unlike Bonds and Stocks, you do not get a return for holding the asset. So, with US equity markets at their highs and bond yields falling across the world, Gold is once again regaining its attraction. A US-China trade war storm will complete the fundamental picture to that technical and result in further gold strength going forward. When investors face very stormy markets, they like to go for Gold. Bolting for Bonds High grade bonds become a place of safety in uncertain times, since they are a better than holding cash, but they still do offer a fixed rate of return if the blind is kept for its full term. The investing legend, Benjamin Graham, recommended having a 50-50 split between bonds and equities and not allowing that ratio to differ by more than a 75-25 ratio split. In other words, in uncertain times, he recommended having up to 75% of your portfolio in bonds. This would therefore make high grade government bonds, like US treasuries and UK gilts, attractive in stormy and uncertain financial. Yearning for Yen The Japanese Yen is a traditional safe haven currency. Negative interest rates, like the Bank of Japan currently has, would typically discourage currency capital inflows. However, the debt structuring of Japan means that the currency is considered very stable and safe for uncertain times. As a result, when investors and speculators are fearful, there are sudden and marked inflows into the Japanese Yen. The pair that stands out for particular downside in a fresh round of the ongoing US-China trade war would be the AUD/JPY pair. As around 30% of Australia's economy is made up of trade with China it stands to lose out on a US-China trade war. Further trade strain would result in AUD weakness and JPY strength on safe haven flows. Swinging to the Swiss franc Another safe haven currency that would attract safe haven flows would be the Swiss Franc. That would see safe haven flows resulting in CHF strength. However, it is worth bearing in mind that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has an interest in ensuring that the CHF does not become too strong. As Switzerland has an export economy a strong CHF hurts its exporters. As a result, the SNB maintains periodic intervention in the CHF. If the CHF becomes too strong, be alert to the possibility of intervention. In certain times let the US Dollar Index be your guide The Federal Reserve is the most important central bank in the world with the US dollar being the most traded currency in the world, comprising of around 70% of all transactions on a given day. So, having a handle on what the Dollar is doing overall on any given day is going to be a key advantage for any trader. The Dollar Index will help you do just that. The US Dollar Index is a guide for the direction of the USD in any pair Trading any pair with a USD half will be guided by the USD index, so here are a couple of key facts to keep in your mind: • If the USD is the base currency (USD/xxx), then the US dollar Index and the currency pair will typically move in the same direction. • If the USD is the quote currency. (xxx/USD) then the US dollar index and the currency pair will typically move in opposite directions. The US dollar index and the smile theory. The US dollar index can give you a quick broad picture of the dollar and help you see what is going on with the market. The smile theory is worth mentioning since it is such a good way of expelling the three varying ways the dollar responds to different situations. If you look at the picture above you can see a smile. On the left-hand side of the smile you have USD strength, which is when the global economy is struggling. This is where you have JPY, CHF strength and USD gains too as it acts as a safe haven currency. The bottom part of the smile is where the USD depreciates on a dovish Fed. At the time of writing, in June 2019, the USD is falling with a more reserved Jerome Powell looking at a rate cut in July. The right part of the smile is when the USD gains value on a hawkish fed and a risk on environment. This smile theory is useful as a quick rule of thumb for understanding the dollars present position and what is likely to happen next. There is normally an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and commodity prices. By getting into the habit of noticing the USD index as soon as you start trading you can speed up your analysis on the dollar and also gain invaluable insights to inform your next trading decision. This article was submitted by CMS Prime.

I spoke with BNNBloomberg earlier today The jobs reports for Canada and the US are due on Friday and that's going to make waves but the newfound drama around central banks is the area to watch. Want to know when we've got a new video out? Click here to subscribe to our YouTube channel. ForexLive

Non trending transitions to trending.. The EURUSD is mired in a 68 pip range this week.  Putting that into perspective, there has not been a more narrow range week since 2004 (there was one other 68 pip range in 2014).   Moreover, the range over the last 3 days is only 50 pips.    The market is non-trending. When the market non-trends, it will eventually transition to trend. If you know that, use it to your advantage. Anticipate a trend.  PS trends are where the most money is made and lost. You just have to get the direction right. How do you get the direction right? The clues are in the non-trend.  That is the breakout away from the 68 pip range is what you look for, and if you can trade as close to that as possible, you then use your targets - in the direction of the break - to help you stick with it.   If it breaks out and returns back into the measly 68 pip range, you have to protect against the run the other way (and go with that idea on the failure). The best case scenario is a break and a run away in the direction of the trend.  We are due for something better The idea is that we are due for something much better than 68 measly pips.  If you have that mindset at the get-go, you are in better posiition to "think trend". You are in a better position to think something much better than 68 pips. That allows you to ride the trend.    Is the range going to be 120 pips for next week? Is it 150 pips? Is it 200 pips?   I don't know.   However, we can use targets, in the direction of the break to guage, how the trend is progressing. To map out the route a trend lower or higher will take us.  Knowing that allows us to manage the trend with more clarity. For example, if the break is lower (below the 1.1343 level, the steps (targets) would be (see hourly chart above): 200 hour MA and 38.2% at 1.1323- 1.132750% retracement at 1.12962. 61.8% at 1.12689100 day MA at 1.1259.  From the current price of 1.1369 to the 100 day MA is 110 pips..... Better than 68 pips but still not great. A move below the 100 day MA with the trend continuing could see the price target the low from June 18 at 1.11808.   That would take the range from the current level to 188 pips. Is 188 pips doable?   The highest ranges for the year in 2019 have been 207 pips, 197 pips, and 190 pips.  So it might be a stretch to get all the way down there on a trend move lower. How about 1.1242-46 (swing area - see low yellow area), or to 1.1202? A  move to 1.1202  (lows from June 14 and 17) would be 167 pips from the 1.1369 level here..   That is realistic.  What about a run higher? On the topside, a move above the 1.13927 would look toward (see the daily chart below and the green numbered circles): 1.1411 high from June 25.1.1447 high from March 20.1.1460.- 50% of the move down from the September 2019 high1.15137 - High from January 31At 1.15137, the range from the current level would be 144 pips.  Is that doable? Yes.  Above that is the        5.  61.8% at 1.1544. That would be a 175 pip move from current levels. Now, for either extension to be reached (lower or higher), it will take a near perfect week. However, after a record non-trend week, I am still going to think/antipate that something better is around the corner. We will do better much better than 68 measly pips. I will be thinking trend. I will be targeting levels to give confidence that the trend roadmap is playing out. I will be prepared.If you think that going into the week the market is due to transition from non-trend to trend, you have a better chance of catching the trend.So it stinks that 68 pips was all we could do this week (and 50 pips since Wednesday), but better days (and price action) should be just around the corner.  So look for it. Anticipate it.  Who knows, you may catch a nice trend move in the process.Have a good weekend.   ForexLive

A look into the use of forex trading signals ForexLive Many forex brokers and independent companies have developed trading systems that offer forex signals telling the user when to buy and sell. The execution of a trade could be as simple as pressing a button or making a telephone call. Forex trading signals usually operate on a mathematical formula and when parameters are met, a signal is sent out via e-mail or phone. Once the signal is received, it's up to the user to decide whether or not to take the signal. There are a lot of mixed reviews on forex signal service providers. To be truthful most signal services work, it's the individual that fails to follow the system. Even though you are not deciding when it's a good time to buy or sell, your emotions can still get in the way if you are coming off of a losing streak. It is however possible to weed out a lot of the losing signals if you are able to identify the overall trend. Some companies claim to make 20% per month using automated trading systems. I'll be the first to say that these systems do exist; it's just a matter of testing the different trading software's out there to see which ones work and which ones do not. When seeking out a reliable source of forex signals be sure that their data is back tested and the company has a proven track record. Most systems will offer a trail period that enables you to test the system before committing to their service completely.  Prices for these systems can range anywhere from $15 to $500 per month depending on the quality of the signals. If a novice trader is lucky enough to find a personal forex trader that manages a small group of people and their money this can sometimes be even more profitable then the large forex signal service providers.  However, finding reliable forex traders and trusting them with your funds are hard to come by. In our opinion, there is nothing wrong with using forex signal providers given you do not have time to trade for yourself. However, taking a bit of time to learn how the forex market reacts to news and events will greatly enhance you trading profits. This article was submitted by UBCFX.

Beware taking revenge on the markets Revenge is one of the most poisonous emotions we can feel, acting on it brings a cycle of destruction into our lives in life and in trading. However, whereas a person may not take revenge in their general day to day living, they may do when it comes to trading. So, this next article is designed to help us recognise and stop revenge trading. Here are three situations when we are more likely to seek to get revenge :  Immediately after a losing trade. Your stop was hit by 1 point overnight after which price soared in your desired direction. You are furious and incredulous in equal measure. When you are angry after a losing trade. Depending on your constitution you express your anger, either a clenched fist that bangs the desk, a revised eyebrow, or maybe merely the increase of tour heart rate. Regardless of your temperament you are ticked. You scan the news feeds furiously looking for another trade. You find one and you are stopped out. You are even angrier, and you increase your leverage and take another trade. You get the picture.     After a period of drawdown. Mentally you were prepared to accept X% of drawdown. Then that X% of drawdown is exceeded. You are angry, disappointed and frustrated. You feel that you have let down your family, your fund, your loved ones. You feel a failure. You read an internet troll who insulted your reasoning, called you a son of a donkey and, horror of horrors you actually believe him ;-). You now think , well what does it matter I may as well max out the leverage and try and make it back on one big all or nothing trade. You have mentally crumbled and believed a tissue of lies that is leading you to to lose discipline, focus and perspective.  Due to stubborn pride. Well, it went like this. Let's imagine a hypothetical example. You had this public argument on a forum with a trader humbly calling himself , 'Forexgenius 789' .He called you a 'dirty rat' (shock, horror) because you were shorting the EUR/USD pair. It created a small ripple on the forum and two other people 'liked his comment'. One of whom was a guy whose AUD/USD position you questioned three months ago. You gave four reasons to short the EUR, all of which made sense, but 'Forexgenius 789' says only chumps short the EURUSD pair and that you are ignorant, naive and probably are a born loser (you see 'Forexgenius 789' is a natural encourager and the life and soul of the party). Of course, he never comment on our site ;-). The problem is that, this time, he is right. You are the wrong side of the trade and you did miss a critical part in your analysis. You are not a 'dirty rat', nor are you a born loser. However, you are wrong on this occasion. It happens to every trader. Now, you know that you should immediately close your position when you know you are wrong.However, you don't. You hold on out of pride. You keep arguing with 'forexgenius' about your position. This is stubborn pride an it can trigger a waterfall of revenge trading. Don't be proud. Be humble. Take the loss, learn the lesson and let 'Forexgenius 789' have his moment in the sun and make a note to yourself, not to goad him next time he takes his turn in the rain' ForexLive

How much is too much? This is one of those frustrating questions to answer because there are not an evenly distributed assortment of trading opportunities. Some weeks have more obvious trading opportunities than others. This means that in theory you can keep taking the trades as long as they present themselves. However, this can also there are times it is hard to spot when you are overtrading. Some traders try to limit themselves to a certain number of trades per week. Other traders have an equity loss limit for the week, when that is hit they head to the weekend early. The answer that people find to this question is different, but one thing is key, make sure you have a response when you notice that you are overtrading. How to recognise it? This it something that is easier to experience than necessarily articulate. There can be a fine line between overtrading and being active in the market. However, here are a few key things that you can recognise:  You have lots of positions open and you are changing your mind on them a lot, e.g long USD in the AM, but change your mind for no real reason in the PMYou are placing trades indiscriminately - you sell at a big support level here, a key option expiry there, you read a blog on the strength of the Yen and open a few small positions.You are losing equity - This is a good sign that you are overtrading, since the indecision and changing around is hurting your bottom line How to stop it? Withdraw from the markets. Take an early weekend, a week off trading. Anything to slow down pulling the triggerIf you are still struggling, then reduce your risk and widen your stops. Consider averaging into positions in order to avoid emotional attachment to any one trade in particular. Become accountable to a trading partner. Someone who you can share your monthly results with. Do not do this on a public forum as it will not benefit you as much as sharing results privately. If your results are good you'll be pumped up as a 'trading master', if your results are bad you'll be beaten down as a 'trading failure'. Neither are good for your development, so find someone who can help with your accountability.  Over now to our seasoned readership, what tips do you have on stopping overtrading?   ForexLive

The power of accountability Hooray! My tech problems yesterday are resolved, so I am able to post again. A big thank you to Justin for jumping in and posting part 2 of our 5 part trading mistake series. As a recap, the series looks like this: Mistake #1 Over leveragingMistake #2 Speculator's GuiltMistake #3 Not being accountableMistake #4 Over tradingMistake #5 Revenge tradingToday we are on Mistake #3, the mistake of not being accountable. Having spoken to a group of around 70 or so traders and aspiring traders over the last three days in Dubai I have been once again convinced of the value of this site. Understanding fundamentals is so key to trading and the breakout in Gold, which was clearly signalled with the Fed's leaning towards a cut last night, was a trade I was pointing out to the group I was speaking to last night. The fundamentals, not the technicals, were going to lead the breakout or otherwise of Gold on the 1350 level.  This is where ForexLive.com is so valuable, the constant fundamental analysis of the team here and not to mention our regular contributors who add their valuable market wisdom to our proverbial pot. It was good to be flying the Forexlive.com flag as a free, fundamental resource for retail FX traders. When trading becomes gamblingI was also convinced of this trading lesson, the mistake of not being accountable. From the person who was many thousands out of pocket on open wheat positions to the person long and loaded into Gold, before the Fed meeting. Both asking me for direction and advice with a slight frenzied feel. It was uncomfortable to witness people under strain with large positions they are not sure to hold, but are unequally unsure about whether to close. When trading becomes gambling then hopetimism followed by the inevitable crash. Now, don't think I am one to pour scorn on those who have made these errors. Oh no, I feel the pain and I have been there. I am just a voice in the desert saying, put your trading house in order. Let me show you how. And today, here is lesson three, find some accountability.Mistake #3 Not being accountableWhen I started learning to trade, back in 2009, I did it from the internet. It was a nightmare of a process. You would be hit by a barrage of multiple factors: trading robots, internet forums with 'experts' telling you how to trade, people insulting other people, and internet marketers touting for your business more than your progress. It can take a while for the fog to clear. In fact, you may still be in that confusing position. One of the lessons that I have learnt during that time is that accountability is a great tool in helping your progress as a trader. There is something strangely powerful in just having to articulate your current trading state to another person. It makes you own your mistakes in a personal way, puts perspective on your success and provides greater clarity on your solutions too. So, can I encourage you to keep greater accountability with your trading? Here are four ways: Find a FX trader who you can be accountable to. Why not go through each other's trades in the last month and ask each other questions about that record. Articulating your trading can help flag a problem and reinforce good habits that are working. Ideally this will be a person who has years pf experience in the market and can teach you how to marry fundamentals, technical and sentiment together. If you can't find someone to help you in this way, keep a trade journal and then make some comments after each trade. I find this less effective than speaking to another person, but you will know your own best learning methodsThis will depend on the nature of your finances and personal relationships, but have a close friend or family member you are accountable to if you are struggling with blowing up your trading accounts. Why not give them an equity figure you will start demo trading with if you hit a certain level. Having a 'think-again' equity level could help stop the rot before it eats too much capitalConsider getting a group of FX traders to meet in your area. Could you have a coffee shop meet up once a month or once a quarter? Learning online is good, but there is no replacement for face to face contact. I don't know about you, but when I meet someone face to face I find that a far more helpful experience than just meeting someone online. One gentleman brought his wife along to our seminar last night as his own accountability partner. I confess that I was jealous as this good lady sat through 3 hours of me talking about intermarket analysis, option levels , flash crashes and a trading routine; all for her husband so he could involve her as his accountability partner. A true  labour of love ! Here was a man prepared to be honest with his trading, himself, and his family. I am confident for him. He has made a good start to being accountable. What accountability do you have? How are you going to get it? I have a number of traders who I invite to contact me and let me know about their progress. Why? Simply because the articulation of our trading can sometimes be the first step to addressing, changing and ultimately overcoming our challenges. All without the trolls, weirdo's and closest psychopaths who like to jump out of the shadows behind the privacy of their keyboards and a wifi protected world. Tomorrow, is lesson 4 and I hope not to have any more technological problems then !  ForexLive

What's "the secret" behind successful traders? The Forex market is the largest trading network in the world with $1.8 trillion dollars being exchanged every day. There are dozens of different currencies traded but the big players to focus on are all traded with the US dollar and include:  EUR (Euro), GBP (British pound), JPY (Japanese yen), CHF (Swiss franc), AUD (Australian dollar), NZD (New Zealand dollar), and the CAN (Canadian dollar).  Each of these currencies is exchanged with the currency of other nations at different exchange rates-which are always in a state of flux because the market trades around the clock (Sunday through Friday). The volatility and sheer size of the market means that there is ample fluctuation to produce big profits-and losses. The challenge for the investor, as always, is to predict which direction the rates of currency pairs will fluctuate.  The beginning point in any investment strategy is determining what type of analysis will be used to help guide enter and exit decisions. Investors who use fundamental analysis look at a nation's interest rates and other economic indicators when deciding to enter or exit a position.  Fundamental investors tend to trade based upon news releases and economic data from the nations involved in the currency pair.  Briefly, technical analysis involves the interpretation of price performance and chart patterns-all historical data.  Some technical indicators used in this type of analysis include: Moving averages including Simple & ExponentialBreakout PointsLines of Support & Resistance Technical traders do not believe that the past necessarily predicts the future-but that long- and short-term trends can be identified and exploited to help guide current decisions on entry and exit points on positions.  Technical traders try to identify current trends in the Forex market to determine entry and exit points.  If they are correct, they can ride a trend (in either direction) for a profit until an exit point is reached (when the trend is ending). The most successful traders on the Forex tend to look for long-term trends and favor technical analysis. Fundamental traders have to enter and exit positions very quickly in order to capitalize in price fluctuations caused by news events (interest rate changes, release of economic data, etc.) and are therefore more vulnerable due to excessive trading.  If there truly was "a secret" to trading success on the Forex, the top investors all tend to agree on the following: Choose currency pairs involving U.S. dollar (has volume to produce the price fluctuations necessary for big profits and the liquidity to enter/exit positions at will)Find currency pair through backtesting that has most profit potential (pip movement) and least volatility through use of technical analysisAfter determining trends, set stops and exit points for both protection and maximum profitabilityReview charts once per day (overtrading and day trading can hurt your portfolio)Remain patient and exit positions once technical decision point has been reached If there really is a secret to trading success on the Forex it has to be patience. Trading strategies are never perfect because the market will never be predictable 100% of the time. There will be times when any strategy fails and stop points are reached before profits are realized. Continuous back testing, remaining patient, and setting stops are the true secrets of Forex success. This article was submitted by UBCFX. ForexLive

I'm just posting this up on behalf of Giles, all credit goes to him for this series 5 trading mistakes to avoid: Mistake #1 Over-leveraging On a recent weekend I spent the afternoon watching a dramatisation of Charles Dicken's novel, Little Dorrit. Writing in the mid 19th Century Charles Dickens spoke of an age old problem; namely that of Speculator's Guilt. The lesson that 'Speculator's guilt' provides can be learnt in one of two ways. The easy way or the hard way. The easy way is to identify it and avoid it, while the hard way is to experience it and vow never to repeat it. The novel Little Dorrit revolves around the key theme of financial impropriety in 19th Century London. In the book there is a financier called Mr Merdle and he is known as the 'phenomena of the age', a financial 'genius' who is trumpeted and adored for his financial acumen. His fund is large and grows at a phenomenal rate. In fact, his fame grows so large, that investors from a variety of sources flock to give all their income to the 'man of the age'. Of course, my trading buddies here know how the rest of this story goes. Mr Merdle becomes overstretched. He makes some errors and, in a bid to hide them, he uses funds from one fund to finance another until it all comes crashing down. (A kind of Ponsi scheme light). The result of course is that many, many people lose all their money.  Then, in a gently probing manner, Dickens explores the question, who is to blame? Is it Mr Merdle for his fraud (yes, of course). Is it the individual firms who invested all their money in Mr Merdle's fund? (Yes, of course). Is it the people who convinced others to invest on the soundness of the venture? (Arguably,at least partly). And so here we have a myriad of varying parties who all share what can be summarised as, 'Speculator's Guilt'. The interesting thing that Dickens draws out is that there is something peculiarly intoxicating about backing one sure fire winner that beguiles all sense. The risking it all for one throw of the dice that is attractive. One hit and I am done. One trade and I solve my financial tight spot. Not only a 'get rich' desire, but a solve most of my present problems in one go. One trade and we can buy that house, go to that school, clear that debt, make that phenomenal return etc etc.  We saw this in January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank removed their floor on the EUR/CHF pair. EUR/CHF fell 40% in minutes and with it more money than I care to think. Fund crashed, brokers went bust, individuals lost a life changing amount of money. For some people the experience made them. For others it broke them. However all of them stood humbled before the intoxicating power of Speculator's Guilt.  So, learn this lesson and don't repeat it:There is no sure fire winner in financial trading, despite what people may say. The more people stress that this is 'the investment to make', be the more alert. Never bet it all on one shot, ever. Even if you think you can rebuild it all again, others around you may not want to hang around and wait. You can lose close family relationships by risking it all with Speculator's Guilt. Watch little Dorrit and imbibe this lesson through a decent narrative. By the way, if you just watch for it's financial lesson, it has a decent love story thrown in (to keep the Mrs happy) , some unforgettable characters, and a financial story that you can enjoy which others may not be even aware is being taught. e.g. it's not like asking your family to watch Bloomberg news. My good lady can take me talking shop for a maximum of about 90 seconds. ;-). I might share this post with her and see if she comments! Thank you Mr Dickens for teaching us this lesson of 'Speculator's Guilt'. Learn it boys and girls, or repeat it. The choice, as they say, is ours to make. ForexLive

A quick one on a real basic in markets. All sorts of markets.  Not financial markets - imagine your favourite pop singer. She is outing on a concert. There are 'x' number of tickets. And they are quickly all bought up. Leaving potential buyers empty handed. So scalpers offer tickets they have bought at higher prices. And they have no problem selling at high prices. Warren Buffet often advises companies that have excess capital sitting around to buy back shares if they don't have anything else to do with the cash. And guess what, prices go up.     So today, Nomura shares are trading +10%. The company announced a buyback. More buyers. And exacerbating impact in financial markets is good information - the sellers of Nomura shares realise there is a chunk to be bought , so they raise their askngi price. Price goes up. This is not rocket science.  ForexLive