Weekly forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending May 4, 2021
- EUR long 85K vs 81K long last week. Longs increased by 4K
- GBP long 20K vs 29K long last week. Longs trimmed by 9K
NASDAQ leads away but well off the postemployment highs
A snapshot of the market a few minutes into the opening showing:
looking at other markets:
A snapshot of the forex market shows the EUR is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest of the majors. The USD has moved lower but is off the lowest levels post the employment report. The snapshot 12 minute after the jobs report can be found for comparison to current changes.
GBPUSD high stalled ahead of last week's high
The GBPUSD has retraced back down to (and below) the highs from earlier in the week. The Monday high reach 1.39314. The Wednesday high reached 1.39257. The high from yesterday after the BOE rate decision reached 1.3940.
Spike lower in the dollar is the initial post jobs reaction
The US dollar has fallen after the weaker to US jobs report. The exception is the USDCAD as Canada also reported weaker data (although influenced by lockdown). The US dollar was marginally higher going into the report with modest declines of -0.8% versus the EUR and GBP (see US opening report ).
The USD is mixed/marginally stronger as traders await the US employment report
As traders await the US employment report at the bottom of the hour, the GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The GBP was the weakest of the majors at the close yesterday. The USD is mixed but tilting to the upside ahead of the key US employment report where expectations are for an even 1M change in NFP jobs and a dip in the US employment rate to 5.8% from 6% last month. The earnings are expected to be unchanged MoM. US stocks in pre-market trading are higher. US yields are near unchanged. Gold is up after a big gain yesterday took the precious metal above $1800. Canada will also report their jobs data with exectations for -150K vs +303.1K last month (unemployment rate going to 8% from 7.5%).
NASDAQ snaps four days losing streak.
The US stocks rallied into the close with the Dow ending the session at a new record and at the highs of the day. The index is closing up 315.76 points for the fourth higher close in as many days. The NASDAQ index is also closing higher for the first time in five trading days.
Selling continues in the USDCAD
The USDCAD selling continues.
Looking at the daily chart, the pairs is now moving further away from the broken trend line at 1.2190. The price has traded to a new low going back to September 2017 to a low at 1.21753. I would peg risk under 1.2200 now. More conservative risk would be the 1.2455 low from 2018.
WTI crude oil settles at $64.71. Down $0.92 or -1.4%
The high for the day reached $65.98. The low extended to $64.50
The next target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 22 low at $64.41. The rising 200 hour moving average is below that at $64.09. The price has not traded below the 200 hour moving average since April 27.
200 hour MA is also in play
The USDJPY rebounded off a swing area in the London morning session and bounced above the 100 hour MA. The break saw increased upside momentum but the high stalled short of the earlier high and the ceiling level from Tuesday and Wednesday at 109.48.
High for the day extends above 200 hour MA but rally fizzles out
The EURSD earlier in the NY session tested, then moved above the 200 hour MA at 1.20611. The price moved to a high at 1.2072. That was short of the Monday high at 1.2075 when the pair also tried to extend above the 200 hour MA.
Test the 50% retracement of the 2021 trading range
Technically, the price has moved back above its 100 day moving average at $1795.91. The move back above the $1800 level was also a significant tilt to the upside.
UK FTSE 100 rises. German DAX, France's CAC near unchanged
They snapshot of the provisional closes shows:
in other markets as European traders look to exit:
The price action in the forex market has seen mixed price action.
Key target for the USDCAD
With the USCAD breaking below its 2018 low price of 1.22455, the price is in more open road.
Looking at the daily chart of the USDCAD, however, the pair is testing a lower trendline now at 1.2190. That trendline can next lows from December and again in March. Will buyers lean/take profit. Be aware. A move below keeps the door wide open for further downside probing.
Price dips below 200 day MA and briefly below 100 day MA too
The USDCHF has the 200 day MA at 0.90841 and the 100 day MA relatively close to that level at 0.90718. The pair just move to a new session low to 0.90701. That was just below the 100 day moving average but the price has snapped back higher. The pair currently trades right at the 200 day moving average.
Kaplan states his reasons for tapering
The NASDAQ index has moved to new lows after Dallas Fed president Kaplan says that the Fed has met the bar for making "substantial further progress" for tapering. He sites more vaccine rollout and more fiscal aid. He also adds that he expects to meet standards for Fed rate lift off sometime in 2022