Closing back below the 100 day MA...
The GBPUSD last Friday at 1.2496. That was just below the 38.2% of the move down from the March high at 1.25009 and below the 100 day MA. On Monday, the price opened near the close but moved lower. On Tueday the price moved higher and extended above the 100 day MA, but could not sustain the upside momentum. The price closed near the MA level (blue line in the daily chart below).
The fall below the low from yesterday did not solcit momentum selling
The USDJPY has tested the 100 hour MA on 4 separate hourly bars over the last 30 or so hours of trading. Each of those tests have found sellers against the MA. That MA comes in at 108.085 currently. A lid on rallies is established. It will take a move above the MA level to change that bias.
Major indices are a little higher at the opening
The opening bell has sounded and the US stocks are modestly higher. Today is quadruple witching day in stocks which tends to inflate volatility. Quadruple witching day is when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire at the close. As Adam pointed out earlier, there are 8.292B in S&P 500 options expiring at 3000. S&P futures are currently trading up seven points at 3015.
Takes out the low from earlier September at 0.62687 (but only by a few pips so far)
The NZDUSD moved to a low of 0.6265 today. That was enough to take the pair to new 4 year lows (September 2015). The early September low reached 0.62687.
Rise to 1.2580. Fall to 100 day and 100 hour MA area
The GBPUSD rose yesterday on the back of positive comments from EU Commissioner Juncker on they Brexit solution. The price raced up to 1.2454 before retracing back toward the earlier week highs at 1.2525 and 1.2511. The low in the early Asian session reached between those two levels at 1.2517 and started a run higher.
The USD is mostly higher
The CHF is the strongest of the major currencies as North American traders enter for the day. The NZD is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher with gains against all them major currencies with the exception of the JPY and the CHF
Comments by the European camp earlier are finally settling in
The risk for buyers now is if price starts to fall back below 1.2500, that wouldn't be a confident sign of a major break signaling further upside momentum.
Cable buyers broke above key resistance levels in overnight trading
The jolt higher yesterday came after (which I will get into later) and that was enough to give buyers the breakthrough they've been craving for all week.
The break of the 100 day and 200 hour MA could not go anywhere
Earlier I posted on the USDJPY:
Having said that, the pair has rallied high but only to the 100 hour MA above (blue line in the chart below). That remains a target that - like the 200 hour MA - would need to be broken and stay broken, if the buyers are to take and keep control.
Up two cents or 0.03%
Technically, the contract is going out near its 200 hour moving average at $58.04.
The gap higher from the Saudi bombing is being eroded. There still is a distance from teh $54.82 close from last Friday, but its a good ways down from the high from Monday at $63.38
EURGBP falls below its 200 day moving average of 0.8833
The price action has moved below its 200 day moving average of 0.8833. Recall from yesterday that the price also fell below that level, only to recover and the price corrected higher in the London session.
GBPUSD spikes back above its 100 day moving average. Risk level for longs now
The comments from European Commissioner Juncker that "we can have a deal" on Brexit, has pushed the price of the GBPUSD back above its 100 day moving average of 1.24919. The pair has tried to extend above that moving average on a number of occasions over the last three trading days. Each has failed.
Low from yesterday and earlier today stalls the fall
The NZDUSD moved down to test the low from yesterday and earlier today at the 0.62977-99 area and stalled. the price has rebounded up to 0.6307 currently. Is the bottom in? Risk can be defined and limted against the level.
Gains being eroded in the major indices
The Nasdaq index is trading to a new session low on the day. The S&P and Dow is also near lows as well.
For the Nasdaq, at the high the index was up 60 points. It is up 19.41 points now.
NY session sees steady fall after run higher stalled against topside resistance.
The EURUSD has moved down to test support defined by the:
The low just reached 1.1042. A move below should solicit more selling.