US-Iran headlines are contributing to the softer risk mood
As such, the pair is continuing to make fresh lows since the January flash crash and there isn't too much support that buyers can cling on to from hereon. The 76.4 retracement level @ 106.65 is the next key level to watch with light bids seen around 106.50 but it's going to be all about geopolitical and trade tensions this week.
Price is continuing to sit just under the 1.1400 handle
It's been a relatively quiet session for the pair so far with price action inching towards the lower side on the day under the 1.1400 handle. That said, the trading range remains narrow with price largely seen between 1.1385-00 in the past few hours.
Crude reached high of $58.22. Now trades at $57.35, down -$0.09
The price of crude oil fell from a high of $58.22 to a low of $57.20. We currently trade around $57.35. The fall has helped to reverse the USDCAD. It is trading up ata 1.3210 currently after reaching a low of 1.31774. The pair is still below the close from Friday at 1.3210 (closed at 1.3220 area). The high from Friday reached 1.3229. The swing low going back to June 10th came in at 1.3238. Those will be targets on the topside now.
Trades in 24 pips range for the day
Looking at the daily chart below, the pair cracked below a lower trend line on Thursday, traded above and below that line on Friday and again today (not really cooperating as a support level. What the pair did do, was stay below the 61.8% of the 2019 trading range at 107.742 (the high price from Friday reached 107.73 and backed off). If the pair is going higher, moving back above that level will be eyed. If the pair is going to break lower, get and stay below the 107.32 old trend line. The lower trend line on the daily comes in at 106.75.
The 1.27579-1.2771 area is home to swing levels
The price of GBPUSD has backed off from a swing area defined by swing levels. The Feb low came in at 1.2771. The swing highs from June reached 1.2762 and 1.27579. The high today reached between those levels at 1.27657 and backed off. We currently trade at 1.2725. That is down -13 pips on the day now (closed at 1.2734 on Friday).
Closed at 1.1369. Currently trades at 1.1393.
The price of the EURUSD is up for the 4th day in a row. The pair bottomed (and was lower on the day) at 1.11808 and has reached a peak of 1.1398 today - just short of the natural resistance at 1.14000. We currently trade at 1.1393.
USD continues move lower at the start of the new trading week
The FOMC helped shove the USD lower last week, and that trend is continuing today. As North American traders enter for the day the AUD is the strongest, and the USD is the weakest of the majors.
Gold is up by another 0.7% on the day currently
Gold is holding above $1,400 on the new week and price is trading closer to $1,409 currently amid a weaker dollar and more expectations of major central banks beginning to ease monetary policy in the coming months.
EUR/USD sits just under the 1.1400 so far in the European morning
Buyers are still looking poised following a break of the 200-day MA (blue line) on Friday for the first time since May 2018. Price is extending higher on the day as the pair trades just under the 1.1400 handle but for now I would still say the dollar's decline is rather modest.
WTI is up by more than 1% on the day now
Oil prices are at session highs again now as ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continues to help boost sentiment as seen towards the end of last week - after Iran shot down a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
Is the upside momentum in the dollar over?
It was a rough week for the dollar after the FOMC meeting last week as the Fed's change in stance led to a significant decline in the greenback, which culminated in what appears to be a firm break below the 200-day MA (blue line) for the dollar index.
Dow gives up gains and ends in the red. Nasdaq the worst performer
The major stock indices are ending the up-and-down session in the red. The Dow, that was higher for most the day, closed near it's lows and gave up the gains.
Up $0.36 or 0.63%
The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling the day and the week at $57.43. That is up $0.36 or 0.63% on the day.
The high for the day reached $57.98 while the low extended to $56.66
There is something above 1.2727
The GBPUSD has been above the 1.2727 area this month but there have also been a number of swings against the level.
We are back up testing that level for the 3rd time this week. A move above is more bullish.
Price moves above 200 week MA, June highs and 200 day MA and stops triggered
The levels are no secret. The June highs at 1.1343 and 1.1346, the 200 week MA at 1.1343, and the 200 day MA at 1.1351 all made for a key area for traders.
Trading back above the 200 hour MA
As the EURUSD breaks above the 200 day MA for the first time since May 2018, the EURJPY is also having a strong move higher today. That move came after trading to a new low since June 3.
What were the biggest market movers this week
The US dollar was beaten up this week on the dovish turn from the Fed. It wasn't the only central bank that pointed to more easing and the outsized move reflects just how crowded dollar longs have become.