Technical Analysis

European stocks give up gains. End the session lower.

Yields lower on the day The European stocks have given up their gains into the day's close and are ending the session mostly lower: In the benchmark 10 year debt sector, yields were lower:

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GBPUSD Mon 22 Oct

GBP/USD fall continues as dollar stays bid, pound weighed down by domestic politics

GBP/USD falls to a low of 1.3038 on the day ForexLive If there's one things traders dislike more than anything else, it's uncertainty. This week promises to be a really uncertain one for the pound as Theresa May could potentially be facing at a no confidence vote and traders will have to deal with the possibility that she may not be at the helm come the end of the week.

EURUSD Mon 22 Oct

EUR/USD gives back gains as Italian bonds reverse course

EUR/USD has nearly pared all of its gains on the day now ForexLive The pair now heads back towards a test of the 100-hour MA (red line) after failing to hold a break above the 200-hour MA (blue line) with minor resistance close to 1.1550 helping to limit gains on the day.

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GBPUSD Mon 22 Oct

Cable holds steady ahead of a potentially tricky week for Theresa May

Domestic politics look set to make this a possibly unpredictable and volatile week ForexLive If you're a pound trader, you very much would be used to the sort of volatility that has been brought upon by Brexit. While that still remains on the radar, now you also have to factor in the possibility that this week.

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GBPJPY Mon 22 Oct

Japanese yen feeling the heat as equities sentiment continues to improve

GBP/JPY rises to a high of 147.49 on the day ForexLive Yen pairs are on the up as the session begins with but also Italian assets are set to begin the week with a decent rally - and that will continue to underpin risk sentiment on the session.

EURUSD Mon 22 Oct

EUR/USD rises to session high as Italian bonds cheer Moody's rating review

Italy's 10-year bond yields are down 10 bps to start the week ForexLive EUR/USD touches a high of 1.1536 on the session as the euro gains some poise on the back of a much calmer backdrop seen in Italian assets to begin the new week. Late on Friday, Moody's decided to cut Italy's credit rating to one grade above junk status but the key was that they revised the outlook to stable. That means the likelihood of a further downgrade to junk status is off the table for now and that's what investors are cheering about.

USDJPY Mon 22 Oct

USD/JPY pushes towards highest since Wednesday. What's next

112.65 holding so far USD/JPY is testing minor resistance at 112.65 after falling as low as 112.35. The turnaround comes as sentiment is buoyed by a massive rally in Chinese equity markets following a household tax cut announcement and upbeat commentary from leaders on Friday.

NZDJPY Fri 19 Oct

What risk rout? NZD/JPY rises to highest since Oct 4

Bounce from the bottom continues The kiwi is the top performer today while the yen lags. This is the classic pair for the risk trade, although I'd argue that's a dangerous way to look at it given the housing fears in New Zealand and flat interest rate profile for the foreseeable future.

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EURGBP Fri 19 Oct

EURGBP coiling from indecision

Italy budget vs Brexit Which is worse? Italy's budget problem for the Euro or Britain's N.Irish border problem for the GBP? This is what EURGBP is trying to decide at the moment as price coils, ready to spring.

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GBPUSD Fri 19 Oct

GBPUSD still contained by 100EMA

GBPUSD contained by 100EMA Price contained by the 100EMA (blue line) on the 15 minute chart. Looking at the daily chart the pressure is firmly on the GBPUSD to fall to the downside. Near term risk is now above the 100EMA.

GOLD Fri 19 Oct

Gold longs make sense in a high yield falling equity market

Going for gold We started the session going for gold seeing as it offers some security for people to place their money as equities fall and yields rise. US 10 year yields currently at 3.17.

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GBPUSD Fri 19 Oct

GBPUSD's rise halted at 100EMA

GBPUSD falling off 100 EMA The 100 EMA (blue line) halted the rise of GBP/USD on the 15 minute chart. Stay below and we are looking at testing the daily lows again. With all the bearish sentiment around I would expect a second test break through the support level and head through 1.3000

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GBPUSD Fri 19 Oct

Looking at the GBPUSD weekly chart 

Weakening outlook for GBP The situation for Britain coming out of the EU Summit looks at putting further uncertainty ahead for the GBP. No hint of a deal and more problems than solutions. Admittedly the problem is the same one, what to do about the N. Irish Border, but the outlook for a solution is waning in my view.

XAUUSD Fri 19 Oct

Going for gold part 2

Gold maintains it's shine  As long as treasury yields are rising and equities are falling Gold longs keep making sense. I posted earlier in the session that Gold was likely to be bid at the 100 EMA today on the 1 hr chart and that has turned out to be the case.

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GOLD Fri 19 Oct

Going for gold in a higher yield, falling equity market

Seeking gain from Gold Gold makes sense again. US 10 year treasuries yields are rising and the Equity markets are falling with price falling further in the US last night in the S&P and Dow and Nasdaq. More declines look imminent and ominous.

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USDCAD Thu 18 Oct

USD/CAD looks to close above 100-day moving average

USD/CAD up 60 pips USD/CAD is flirting with some major technical levels today. It briefly broke above the late September high but is now back below. However it remains above the 100-day moving average.

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GBPUSD Thu 18 Oct

Cable drop extends to lowest since October 5

Cable under heavy pressure Risk off markets are giving the US dollar and yen a major lift. GBP/USD is suffering as the S&P 500 falls 48 points to 2760, falling through the 200-day moving average.

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USDCAD Thu 18 Oct

USD/CAD nears the highest levels of October

USD/CAD has erased all its recent losses You would think the combination of a new NAFTA deal and a great BOC Business Outlook Survey would be a tailwind for Canada but it hasn't worked out that way.

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SPX Thu 18 Oct

S&P 500 nears Tuesday's low in sharp drop

Not looking good for stocks The drop in USD/JPY was the early-warning sign for stocks, something earlier. I wrote about Now the wheels have come off for US stocks. The S&P 500 is down 39 points to 2769. The low on Tuesday was 2766. Expect another round of stops if the lows give way.

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