Technical Analysis

US stocks go out at the session lows

Nasdaq leads the way lower  The major US stock indices are going out near/at session lows.  The S&P index is disappointed that it could not remain above the 3000 level. The Dow was up 120 points at the highs.  

More Technical Analysis

SP Fri 19 Jul

Broad US stock indices turn negative on the day.

S&P index fails on reach above 3000 today (so far) The broader US stock indices have turned negative on the day as London/European traders look to exit. A snapshot is showing:

USDJPY Fri 19 Jul

The USDJPY looks toward the 100 hour MA (again)

Retracing the fall from yesterday The USDJPY scooted to - and eventually back above - the swing lows from June 28 and July 3rd at the 107.53-557 on the Fed Williams retraction.  Later in the session, traders based against that level on a test (see red circle 4).  That area is back to being support for the USDJPY. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish.

EURUSD Fri 19 Jul

EURUSD trades to new session low

Dollar buying sends the pair back below and away from MAs The EURUSD shot higher yesterday but left the highs from July 11 and July 15 and a meaningful break of the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart to be broken. Sellers leaned against the area. 

USDCAD Fri 19 Jul

USDCAD moves higher after retail sales miss

Tests 38.2% and 1.3100 level THe price has moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chartt at 1.30775 and above the highs for the week. The pair is testing the 38.2% of the move down from the June 21 high (intermediate recent swing high) and the 1.31000 level (now breaking as I type). That yellow area is now close support for the pair.

USD Fri 19 Jul

The USD is the strongest and EUR is the weakest as the week moves to a close

Dollar rebounds after a couple days of declines The dollar was the weakest currency of the day for the 2nd day in a row yesterday after Fed's Williams more dovish comments.  

EURUSD Fri 19 Jul

EUR/USD falls to session low as dollar firms further on the day

EUR/USD slips to a low of 1.1238, tests key hourly moving averages ForexLive Price moved lower following a WSJ interview (on 11 July) with Fed dove James Bullard was published, headlining that Bullard did not view that a cut beyond 25 bps is warranted ahead of the 31 July meeting decision.

EURUSD Fri 19 Jul

EUR/USD holds lower but traders still making up their minds ahead of ECB, Fed decisions

EUR/USD trades in a ~90 pips range over the past two weeks ForexLive The pair is holding lower on the day as the dollar recoups some of its losses from yesterday's trading, with the low having hit 1.1241 and testing key near-term support levels in the form of the 100-hour MA (red line) and the 200-hour MA (blue line) earlier.

GBPUSD Fri 19 Jul

Cable falls to session low as dollar continues to hold firm

The pound is also losing a little bit of ground to start the session ForexLive And that is seeing cable move to a session low of 1.2515 as sellers are starting to try and gather more momentum for a move back towards the downside. Currently, price is running into some minor support around the 23.6 retracement level @ 1.2517.

SP-INDEX Thu 18 Jul

Major US stock indices close with gains

Dow ekes out a small gain at the close.  S&P index almost makes it to 3K but falls short The major US stock indices of closing the day with gains. The Dow eked out a small gain at the close. The S&P index was the largest percentage gainer, reaching a high of 2998.28, just short of the 3000 level.

USD Thu 18 Jul

USD continues the fall

USD at lows vs ALL major currencies The USD fall continues. Looking at the pip changes vs the major pairs, the USD is at the session extremes for all the pairs. The GBPUSD is the biggest mover, up 116 pips.

GOLD Thu 18 Jul

Gold trades to highest level since May 2013

Takes out 2019 highs The price of gold moved to a new 2019 high and in the processs is trading at the highest level since May 2013. The precious metal will now have traders targeting a 50% retracement of the move down from the 2011 high price of $1921.17 at the $1483.83 level (see chart below). 

DOLLAR Thu 18 Jul

A look around the major currency moves after dovish Fed Williams comments

Dollar lower.  Stocks higher, Yields lower.  Gold higher.  The dollar has tumbled after those comments from Feds Williams.  Remember, the Fed goes dark until the July 31st meeting at the end of business tomorrow. As a result, today's comments from the vice-chairman are purposeful and are more dovish than his prior comments from July 11th. 

DOLLAR Thu 18 Jul

Traders now see 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut at July meeting

Up from 34% earlier today Traders are now seeing a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the July meeting according to federal funds futures. That is up from 34% late Wednesday and earlier today

DOLLAR Thu 18 Jul

US dollar weakens after dovish Williams comments

Major pairs are running ForexLive

GOLD Thu 18 Jul

Gold's downs and ups today did stall ahead of the 100 hour MA

Is this THE bullish push that will get the contract out of the up and down range The price of gold moved lower into the NY session, but then rebounded higher. A lower dollar helped, but also a contributor to the run higher was the holding above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below). The 100 hour MA currently comes in at $1414.29. The low today reached $1414.73. At the time of the test, the 100 hour MA was at $1413.60. The price got close. Buyers leaned against support on the dip, and the sellers turned more to buyers pushing the price up. 

GBPUSD Thu 18 Jul

GBPUSD tries to push above 200 hour MA, but may be failing.

But not running so be careful The GBPUSD is trying to push above its 100 and 200 hour MA.  The 200 hour MA stalled the rally earlier in the day but backed off. After a modest decline, the pair stall at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute and 38.2% retracement, the pair moved back higher.  The high extended to new highs and above the 200 hour MA. 

SPX Thu 18 Jul

The S&P falls below 100 hour MA

Nasdaq is testing the MA level The S&P index has cracked below its 100 hour MA at the 2978.96.  The low reached to 2973.09. We currently trade at 2974.77.


European shares and the session lower on the day

10 year benchmark interest rates are also lower The major European stock indicesare closed and showing losses for the day. The provisional closes are showing In the benchmark 10 year notes, yields are also lower but off the lower extremes.


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