Technical Analysis

Does success on Jeopardy translate into success as a trader?

Jeopardy winners and trading winners have a lot in common I posted the below educational post yesterday, but wanted to give an update on the results from last nights show, and give weekend viewers a chance to do a little homework (it is a little longer than most posts).

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SP Thu 18 Apr

The S&P and Nasdaq in the red now

Some negative ticks in the major indices The gains in the S&P and the Nasdaq have eroded. There is no real news. Data today started strong with the retail sales and jobless claims stronger than expectations, but the Markit PMI data was weaker.  

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SP Thu 18 Apr

US stocks open mixed. Dow leading the way higher. Nasdaq marginally lower.

S&P in the middle The US stocks are open.  Today two IPOs - Pininterst and Zoom - will trade for the first time.   The major indices are mixed.  

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USDJPY Thu 18 Apr

USDJPY moves higher on data but not much higher

Yields are still lower.  Dow up. Nasdaq unchanged in pre-market trading The USDJPY moved higher on the back of the better data today (claims and Retail sales). The price moved to a London session high at 112.02 from 111.87 before the number, but it currently trading at 111.92. So the pair is not running.  

GBPUSD Thu 18 Apr

GBPUSD challenges the 1.3000 level. Stalls.

Channel trend line not far away. The GBPUSD is challenging the 1.3000 level (EURUSD moves to new low too). The pair moved below the 1.3000 earlier today and also back on April 5th when the low for the month was reached at 1.2986, but it quickly snapped back.   

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DOLLAR Thu 18 Apr

EURUSD continues move lower after better US data

Retraced to 61.8% of the move up in April The EURUSD moved to a new session low after the better than expected US retail sales and jobless claims data. THe pair moved to a low of 1.12373. That was just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the April low to high trading range at 1.12367.  The current price is back up to 1.1243.

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EURUSD Thu 18 Apr

The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

The USD is mostly higher As NA traders enter for the day, the JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher as flight to safety flows lead after No. Koreas missile test, anxiety about the Muelller report, weaker data in Europe. There is a out at the bottom of the hour.

1
GBPUSD Thu 18 Apr

Cable refuses to break stride as traders weigh stronger dollar against upbeat UK data

UK retail sales holds firm in Q1 as March data beats expectations ForexLive But that isn't enough to really generate much buzz in the pound with cable rising from 1.3010 levels to 1.3030 following the data release. Not that it's much of a surprise as despite the data beat, pound sentiment remains largely dependent on Brexit at this point and the earlier release doesn't really do much to change that picture.

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EURUSD Thu 18 Apr

Euro troubles resurface as German manufacturing PMI disappoints expectations again

EUR/USD brought lower from 1.1290 to a low of 1.1265 ForexLive Much like the reports on ECB doubting economic growth earlier this week, the German data earlier basically highlights the fragility of the recent rally in the euro. While the manufacturing print improved from March to April, it's the sheer disappointment relative to expectations is what markets are focusing on upon the release.

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AUDUSD Thu 18 Apr

AUD/USD continues to challenge the 200-day moving average following jobs data release

AUD/USD buyers still looking for a firm break above the 200-day moving average ForexLive Yesterday's run higher failed to culminate into anything meaningful as buyers failed to secure a daily close above the 200-day MA (blue line). Today, that level rests at 0.7190 and will be a key point of contention once again as price lingers around 0.7180-90 levels after touching a high of 0.7199 earlier.

EURUSD Thu 18 Apr

EUR/USD sits around 1.1300 as traders wait on PMI data for more clues

All eyes turn to Eurozone PMI data for further direction ForexLive Near-term bias is more neutral as price holds in between the key hourly moving averages, just under the 100-hour MA (red line) but above the 200-hour MA (blue line). The focus now turns towards the release of PMI data from Europe, beginning with France at 0715 GMT.

3
AUSUSD Wed 17 Apr

AUDUSD moves higher, then the AUSDUSD moves lower. What to watch next?

Move above 200 day MA fails.  Back to 100 hour MA The AUDUSD price action today has seen a run higher into the NY session, and then a run lower in the NY session.

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CRUDE-OIL Wed 17 Apr

Crude oil futures settle at $63.76

Dopwn -$0.29 on the day. The price crude oil futures are settling at $63.76. That is down $-.29 on the day.The high price reached $64.61, while the low extended to $63.66.

USDCHF Wed 17 Apr

USDCHF trades at highest level since March 12th

Breaks above swing area and topside channel trend line The USDJPY has been accelerating to the upside this week (). Over the weekend SNBs Jordan said the central bank could cut rates or intervene.  That helped the weak bias in the CHF (higher USDCHF). 

3
EURJPY Wed 17 Apr

EURJPY tests 100 hour MA after swing highs stall rally again

A move below will be eyed by sellers now followed by the 126.16-21 area The falll from the high today moved down to test the rising 100 hour MA, and that level has stalled the fall (so far at least).   Dip buyers, looking for more upside (and move above the ceiling) are sticking a toe against the MA level, with stops likely on a break below. Like at the highs, risk is defined and limited. 

USDJPY Wed 17 Apr

USDJPY continues to chop after run higher stalls

100 hour MA eyed below The USDJPY is sputtering near topside resistance, but holds on to more bullish bias. Looking at the daily chart above, the 112.076-279 area is home to swing levels going back to late October (it dissects more bullish and more bearish). The highs this week (and on Friday), have seen sellers leaning in that area. Today, the high reached 112.159, and backed off.  Buyers could not push to and above the 112.279 level.  

2
GBPUSD Wed 17 Apr

GBPUSD stays below 200 hour MA today. Bangs against lows.

The GBPUSD trading in a channel The GBPUSD is trading in a channel with more of a bearish bias. The price also traded below the 200 hour MA today. Yesterday, that MA was busted  early in the NY session, on reports of stalls in Brexit negotiations, and stayed below that MA for the rest of the day (see green line at 1.30699). The high today reached 1.30663 and reversed lower. Going forward, if the bulls are to push higher, that MA would need to be broken.

EURUSD Wed 17 Apr

EURUSD sets a double top today. Rotates back lower.

Move lower early in the sesson just can't keep the momentum going The EURUSD set a double top in trading in the London morning sesssion at the 1.13233. When the price cannot extend above a prior high, it sours the mood of the market traders.   

3
FOREX Wed 17 Apr

The AUD is the strongest, while the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins

The USD Is mixed. As the NA session begins, the AUD is the strongest helped by stronger China data overnight. while the NZD is the weakest. It was hurt early by weaker CPI data (but did recover part of the losses on the back of the China data).  The USD is little changed overall with gains vs the NZD and CHF and declines vs the AUD, CAD and EUR. The greenback is little changed vs the GBP, JPY in the morning snapshot.


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