Technical Analysis

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USDCHF Wed 24 Feb

Dow trades to a new all time high price

Trades the highest level since November 25, 2020 the Dow industrial average has traded to a new all time high price of 31717.13. The index is currently up 179 points or 0.57% on the day.

EURUSD Wed 24 Feb

EURUSD falls below its 200 hour moving average

Stops triggered on the break The EURUSD cracked below its 38.2% retracement at 1.21195 and 200 hour moving average 1.21165 and 1.21086. The next target comes in at the 50% retracement at 1.2101.

CRUDE-OIL Wed 24 Feb

Crude oil rises to new high for the day ahead of inventory data

Crude oil inventory at the bottom of the hour Technically, the price low yesterday bounced off its 100 hour moving average. Today the 100 hour moving average also held support before the price started to rotate back to the upside (see blue line in the chart below).

NASDAQ Wed 24 Feb

US stocks open lower across the board

NASDAQ index leads the way to the downside Expect volatile trading as the market continues to worry about interest rates rising. The 10 year is now up 8.53 basis points to 1.4269%. The 2 – 10 year spread is at its highest level since 2016. 

SP Wed 24 Feb

US stocks set to open lower

Futures are implying a lower levels for the major indices The financial futures for the equities are implying a lower opening. The indices have been moving lower since peaking earlier in the New York session

USDJPY Wed 24 Feb

USDJPY races higher today after cluster of moving averages were broken

100 hour moving average, 200 hour moving average and 200 day moving average all broken near 105.46 today The USDJPY has raced higher today. The pair close yesterday at 105.20. The early Asian session saw the price move up to test and then break a cluster of 3 moving averages including the 200 hour moving average, the 200 day MA and the 100 hour MA.  All were centered around the 105.46 area. After basing against those moving averages for 5 or so hours, the buyers took the bull by the horns (i.e. the bulls/buyers took control) and the price started to run to the upside. 

STOCKS Wed 24 Feb

As yields run higher, stocks in premarket give up gains. The dollar rises/gold falls

Gold falling. The dollar is rising With the US yields running to the upside (the 30 year was up over 10 basis points and the 10 year was up over 7 bps), the US stocks started to give up their gains. The major indices are now trading negative on the day with the Dow down 37 points, and the NASDAQ down 60 points.  The dollar has moved higher and gold prices have moved lower (down $-16).. 

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GBPUSD Wed 24 Feb

GBPUSD gets close to completing the up and down lap today

Stops send the pair higher in the Asian session. The rest of the day has been working back down The GBPUSD raced higher in early Asian trading in what it is being attributed to stop buying. The pair has been trending to the upside. The the pair had been up for 4 consecutive days and extended above the 1.4000 level in the process. 

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EURUSD Wed 24 Feb

EURUSD falls and tests the 100 hour moving average

Initial bounce off of the level The range for the EURUSD is now up to 44 pips. That is still shy of the 64 pip average seen over the last 22 days of trading (about a month).  So there is room to roam. The sellers are making the play for more control, but they still need to get back below the 100 hour moving average. Below that and traders will be looking toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.21195 and the 200 hour moving average at 1.21165.

FOREX Wed 24 Feb

The NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

The USD is mixed to lower in early NY trading As North American traders enter for the day, the NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest of the major currencies. The USD is trading mixed with a downward tilt. The greenback is lower most vs the NZD (-0.68%) and CAD (-0.26%), and down more modestly verse the AUD, GBP and EUR. The dollar is higher vs the JPY (+0.57%) and CHF (+0.29%). The CHF moved sharply higher yesterday after breaking back above its 100 day MA and running to the upside. The GBP had a rollercoaster ride with a sharp move higher in the Asian session on stop buying (EURGBP was on the move as well), but has since given up some of those gains in some of the pairs. The GBPJPY and GBPCHF remains higher as they have seen moves in the USDJPY and USDCHF that are keeping them higher still on the day.  Fed's Powell will once again testify on Capitol Hill. Yesterday he calmed the markets saying the Fed is still a long way away from inflation being a problem, and full employment.  His testimony will begin at 10 AM. New home sales will also be released at that time. At 10:30 ET the weekly will inventory data will be released.

EURCHF Wed 24 Feb

Franc meltdown continues as risk tones keep calmer in European trading

EUR/CHF climbs to 1.1050 levels, nearing the October 2019 highs The meltdown in the franc over the past two days is also helped by the turnaround in sentiment with US equities rebounding strongly after Fed chair Powell's testimony yesterday, and also as European investors are brushing aside the risk averse tones earlier.

USDJPY Wed 24 Feb

USD/JPY pushes higher in back and forth week so far

USD/JPY trades to session highs as the risk mood improves slightly to start European morning trade today The yen is continuing to be pressured since trading yesterday, amid a turnaround in equities sentiment and that is stretching further to today as well.

EURGBP Wed 24 Feb

Pound holds higher after earlier spike

The pound ran some stops earlier today with EUR/GBP falling below 0.8600 The pound continues to do no wrong since the start of the year as the spike earlier today just bolsters the technical picture in the quid across the board for the moment.

SP Tue 23 Feb

Major indices close well off session lows

NASDAQ closes lower for the 5th time in 6 trading days The NASDAQ index although lower on the day by -0.5%, traded as low as -3.91%. The final numbers are showing:

NASDAQ Tue 23 Feb

Nasdaq working back toward unchanged. Dow and S&P now higher.

Re-approaching 50% midpoint and 200 hour MA Dow reached 31158.76 or -1.15%. Should the price continued to move higher, the pair would approach the 50% midpoint of the move up from the February 1 low of 12985.05. That low was approached today but fell 18 points shy of the level. The midpoint level comes in at 13580.08. 

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CHF Tue 23 Feb

CHF gets smashed in trading today

GBPCHF runs 1.35% The CHF pairs are all running with the CHF getting hit hard. Looking at the % changes of the CHF pairs, the currency is down the most vs GBP (-1.35%) and CAD (-1.21%), but the current snapshot shows declines of -0.80% to -1.35% vs the major currencies. 

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USDCHF Tue 23 Feb

USDCHF breaks to new highs

Moves above the swing area and looks toward February high Recall from an earlier post, the pair has been playing games with the 100 day MA at 0.89854 over the last 2 trading days. Yesterday the price moved above the moving average line and spiked up to the high of 0.90229, but then tumbled back below the key line.

EURCHF Tue 23 Feb

EURCHF trades to highest level since December 2019

Price trend higher continues for the pair The EURCHF moved above its 100 day MA for the last time back on January 29 and has stayed above that level since that time. 

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