How do they leave it for the week?
The European stocks ending the day with declines for the day. In fact, they never traded in the black. Having said that, they did recover off of lower levels. They were still down, but not so negative.
The pair makes a break outside the box
The buyers tried to take control yesterday. The price moved above the 100 day MA (at 0.7224 today) and even took out the highs from Dec 5 and 6th at 0.7241. The problem? The high stalled at 0.72459. Trouble for the bulls.
GBP/JPY touches a low of 142.61 on the day
Price is now leaning on support from the September lows @ 142.60 after buyers failed to firmly take out the support-turned-resistance level from the 28 June low @ 143.78 over the past two trading days. It's a bit of a double whammy for GBP/JPY today with the poorer risk sentiment helping to keep yen pairs anchored while the pound isn't looking too hot either as the Brexit saga hits a bit of a pause until the new year.
GBP/USD is threatening a break of the 100-hour moving average
The pair falls to a session low of 1.2591 as the pound is losing some ground while the dollar is also advancing across the board. The greenback has worked its way to session highs for the day now after weak French data is compounding worries for the euro on the day after Draghi's dovish tone yesterday.
Sellers remain in control of the pair this week
Call it a timely coincidence but the negative shift in risk sentiment today couldn't come at a better time for AUD/USD sellers. Price has been knocking on the door of the 100-day MA (red line) over the past three days but ultimately, buyers appear to have encountered failure to break above that - barring any miraculous turnaround in risk sentiment later in the day.
Better jobless numbers got the ball rolling.
At the start of the NA session, the US initial claims came out much better than expected (see: ""). The price moved above the 113.49 -54 area. More bullish.
Closed at 1.3348. Trend line at 1.3347. Narrow trading range today.
The USDCAD is having one of those up and down trading days with a narrow trading range.
The close from yesterday came in at 1.3348. The low just reached 1.3351. There is a trend line at the 1.3347 level (connecting lows from Dec 4 and yesterday's low).
Back below the 100 day MA.
The AUDUSD rallied into the European session and in doing so moved above a ceiling at the 0.72409 area. The high reached 0.72459. That was it. A big disappointment on the break of the ceiling.
100 hour MA stalled the rally yesterday
The S&P is up about 15 points or 0.56% at 2665,.30 which is a good start for the day, but keep in mind that some key resistance is above and keeps the bears more in control.
It can't be easy.
Draghi started more dovish with risks to the downside and lower GDP and inflation projections. That sent the EURUSD away from the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green line) and out of the confined range seen over the last 24 hours.
Waffles under that 200 hour MA line
The GBPUSD is waffling back and forth over the last 7 or so hours after an earlier run higher took the price racing through the 100 hour MA (blue line at 1.26708 currently) and up to the 200 hour MA (green line). That 200 hour MA was retested again in the NY session and backed off for the second time today. Looking back to Monday, the pair also used that MA as a ceiling level to lean against. Stay below and sellers can claim victory. Move above though and those sellers are likely to give up. The GBPUSD has been squeezing higher since bottoming yesterday.
Moves above 113.50 area
The US jobless claims came in much better than expected (near all-time lows), and the USDJPY pushed higher. The move took the price above the 113.49 – 52 area that has been a ceiling over the last 2 days. The price moved to a high price of 113.575, but has backed back down to the ceiling area. The buyers are making a play. Can they keep the momentum going? That will be eyed now.
Draghi and macro projections ahead
As the market awaits for the presses from Draghi and the economic projections (GDP and inflation should be lowered), the price action is downright UGLY. Looking at the hourly chart, the pair has been trading up and down over the last 24 hours or so with a low at 1.1355 and a high of 1.1393. What to do? Flip a coin.
The USD is mixed with a tilt to the downside
The GBP is the strongest. The JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day. The ECB just announced no change in rates, that they will halt new QE purchases, but will continue to reinvest maturing issues. The SNB earlier kept their rates unchanged. The CHF is a little stronger. As for the USD it is mixed with a tile a little to the downside.