Learn how to catch more trends by following that simple trading mantra
Many traders look at sideways markets as a time to fall asleep and ignore that market or specific currency pair. In reality, there comes a time in the sideways markets, where you need to become uber aware of the price action. The reason? Non-trend transitions to trends. Since trends are fast, directional and tend to go farther than traders expect, it's the perfect time to make large gains (and avoid large losses).
Weekly forex futures positioning data for the CFTC for the week ending April 13, 2021
- EUR long 67K vs 68K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K
- GBP long 26K vs 20K long last week. Longs increase by 6K
WTI crude oil futures to settle at $63.13, up $0.33 or 0.52%
The June contract settled lower by $0.32 at $63.14
Technically, the price is trading between the 50% and the 61.8% of the move down from the March cycle high. Those levels comes in at $63.87 to $62.61.
German Dax makes new all time highs
The German Dax broke higher today and in the process moved to a new all time high at 15473.83. The price of the index had been waffling up and down over the last 8 trading days in a non-trending market before breaking higher and running to the upside.
Volatile up and down move in the USDCAD this week
The USDCAD on Monday, opened and moved higher. That run, took the price back above a cluster of MAs near 1.2570 and up to a swing area at 1.2623 to 1.2628 (red numbered circles). The high extreme from March 30 reached 1.2646. The high price also stalled against a topside trend line (see green numbered circles).
I still don't trust it, but buyers are making a play on the sharp run higher
I have not been a big fan of the GBPUSD of late. It has had an overabundance of very volatile up and down price action (which is different than non-trending). It does not have a rhythm. Case in point, the price tumbled lower earlier today falling about 64 pips in 7 hours, then bottomed at 1.3703 and shot higher over the next seven hours up to a high at 1.3815 (112 pips).
...100 hour MA and lower swing area hold support though
This week, the price non-trended in an up and down range on Monday and into Tuesday. At the lows of the up and down trading, the pair held trend line support - the last time at 1.1874. That proved to be the clue needed for traders to push the price higher in the NY session on Tuesday.
The USD is marginally lower mostly
As the North American session gets underway, the CHF is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is modestly lower with most of the declines vs the CHF, CAD and EUR. The AUD, NZD, JPY and GBP are more near unchanged. Stocks are marginally higher. Yields are lower. Kaplan speaks later today. US Housing starts and U of Mich. Sentiment will be released. After yesterday's strong claims and retail sales, the market will be looking for a move higher today in sentiment for April (Preliminary) to show the economic improvement.
Gold broke above resistance @ $1,755 to its highest levels since 26 February in US trading yesterday
One, the chart is advocating stronger momentum for buyers now upon the break above $1,755 with further resistance seen closer to the 38.2 retracement level near $1,785 and then $1,800 level with the 100-day moving average (red line) nearby.
GBP/USD dragged down to a low of 1.3732
While the dollar is holding mildly firmer, the decline here owes more to fall in pound sentiment as EUR/GBP is notably taking a run at trying to get above the 0.8700 level.
Is the consolidation over?
Look at the title of this new report from Goldman Sachs. That's the kind of thing to get anyone's attention:
"Without a surge in the use of copper and other key metals, the substitution of renewables for oil will not happen," they write.
Gold breaks the range to the upside
Just when it looked like gold had formed a double top, it's broken out to the upside. Falling Treasury yields and the 'buy everything' mode in the markets at the moment have given a big lift to gold today. It's up $27 to $1763, which is the highest since February 25.
The USD is mixed with declines vs the commodity complex (CAD, AUD and NZD)
Looking at the ranges and changes, the overall price action is modest with all the major currency pairs trading a pretty good distance away from the 22 day averages (red line in the lower chart below). The EURUSD, and USDJPY ranges are only 31 pips. The USDCHF is even lower at 26 pips.
Dollar climbs to the highs for the day against the euro, pound, franc
As mentioned, just be mindful that there is some expectation that we may see stronger numbers than anticipated - on top of the already strong estimates. So, there is a slight propensity to expect an upside surprise to the report later.
AUD/USD pushes to fresh highs in over three weeks
The pair is running with the upside momentum again after a slight pullback towards 0.7706-10 at the tail-end of Asia Pacific trading. The firmer risk mood to start European trading is helping somewhat, lifting AUD/USD to the highs for the day at 0.7753.