Technical Analysis

NZDUSD buyers try to keep control

Westpac Consumer Sentiment will be released at 4 PM ET The NZDUSD buyers are trying to keep control technically.  Looking at the hourly chart below, the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 0.6845 has been broken in the NY afternoon session and earlier in the day  (and on Friday) but each move below (see red shaded areas), the price has been reversed and moved higher.  The sellers have not been able to close a bar much below the line as well. 

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SP Mon 18 Mar

US major indices start the week with gains

Midday dips into the red, reversed and close well off  the lows The major US stock in the US are ending the day in the black after a dip midday sent the pair in the red.   Even the Dow closed higher despite a drag by Boeing. The shares of Boeing subtracted 40 some odd points from the Dow.  

USDJPY Mon 18 Mar

USDJPY trades in a narrow range and waits for a push

Trades in a 20 pip range What's the good news about a 20 pip trading range for traders?  The expectation that it won't stay that way forever. That is there should be an extension. How far it extends is unknown but average range over the last month (for the low to high range for a day) is about 49 pips.  

DOW Mon 18 Mar

The US stocks open mixed. Dow lags.

Boeing still a drag for the Dow The major indices are opening mixed, with the Dow being dragged lower by Boeing (down -2.4%) and Disney (down -1.31%). The snapshot a few minutes from the opening is showing:

GBPUSD Mon 18 Mar

GBPUSD trades near session lows. The 1.3300 level is the new ceiling.

The rising 100 hour MA is being approached The GBPUSD is trading near session lows and in the processs is getting nearer the 100 hour MA at 1.3219 level (blue line in the chart below). That MA was broken to the upside on Wednesday, stayed above and squeezed higher with the Brexit vote to block a no-deal (at least at the lawmaker level). 

EURUSD Mon 18 Mar

EURUSD pushes toward the 100 day MA, but finds early sellers against the level.

First test since March 1 The EURUSD is higher on the day and trading near the highs. The pair had limited downside momentum earlier in the day, moved above the swing highs from last week at 1.1338 and 1.13436 and has pushed to a high of 1.13584. 

FOREX Mon 18 Mar

The AUD is the strongest. The GBP is the weakest at the start of the week

The USD is mostly lower As the trading in NY gets off to a start, the AUD is the strongest despite news that US/China agreement would likely be delayed until June.  The GBP is the weakest as the next Brexit votes are neared. The USD is lower mostly with gains vs the GBP and a small gain vs the JPY the only moves higher.  PM May still needs more votes to have lawmakers pass her plan. 

GBPUSD Mon 18 Mar

Cable falls to session low as markets wait on further Brexit developments

Cable touches a low of 1.3246 as MV3 is eyed ForexLive Despite buyers staying in near-term control, the 1.3300 handle remains a key resistance level at this point as Brexit developments go silent today with the government talking with the DUP to convince them to vote for May's deal in a potential third meaningful vote tomorrow or Wednesday.

EURUSD Mon 18 Mar

EUR/USD rises to two-week high as dollar holds weaker on the day

EUR/USD touches a session high of 1.1350 ForexLive Buyers remain in near-term control and are starting to make an attempt for a further upside break now as the high for the day touches 1.1350. On Friday, large expiries helped to contain the pair between 1.1300-25 but with no key notable ones rolling off today we're seeing the price range start to extend.

AUDUSD Mon 18 Mar

AUD/USD stays resilient as buyers look towards further upside extension

AUD/USD holds above 0.7100 ahead of European trading ForexLive And that is a good sign for buyers after last week's attempts to break above the 0.7100 failed. There is some minor resistance around 0.7120-25 now but a break above that could see a quick rise towards 0.7160 where the 100-day moving average lies.

FOREX Fri 15 Mar

The strongest and weakest currencies this week are.....???

The GBP runs away with the strongest. The JPY and USD are the weakest As the week comes to a close, it's time to rank the strongest and weakest currencies. The run away strongest was the GBP. That currency benefitted from the squeeze into all the votes, the blocking of the no-deal and I guess the hoped for extension of Article 50. What is still up in the air is if PM May can get the votes for her deal or if she can present another deal that the EU27 will agree to.  There may be the question of whether the EU27 will agree to an extension. Government officials met with the DUP leaders today and made "progress" with them (for votes).  Talks will continue over the weekend and early next week).  

NASDAQ Fri 15 Mar

US stocks sure look good...

Nasdaq up over 1% on the day now The US stocks are looking good as the week moves toward the end (knock on wood). The Nasdaq is up by over 1% now at 7708.43 (above 7700 level). The S&P index is making a break away from the 2817 area ceiling that has put a lid on rallies going back to October (see chart below ....and also away from 2800 level).   Bullish. 

GBPUSD Fri 15 Mar

GBPUSD moves above ceiling area. Can it stay above?

The 1.3286 has been a ceiling over the last 24 plus hours (and a swing level in the past) London/ European traders will be leaving for the day and concerns about getting more concensus on PM May plan from DUP (that is agreeable by EU) may squeeze some shorts.

GOLD Fri 15 Mar

Gold stalls at trend line and the 38.2% retracement

200 hour MA support held. Break above the 100 hour MA but stalls at a dual resistance target at $1306.29-81 area Yesterday, the price of Gold fell but stalled the fall at the 200 hour MA, not once but twice. Today, the low for the day also stalled against that MA. Three times was the charm and the price moved higher.  

10-YEAR Fri 15 Mar

Yields moving lower in the US which has helped push the dollar lower

USD only higher vs the CAD now The USD has moved lower in the NY session. It is now only up vs the CAD. The catalyst have been some weaker manufacturing data early on.  More recently the JOLTs and Michigan consumer confidence were better but so far the dollar fall is not detered. It is Friday and flows can be an impact.   However, it is worth monitoring for a stall or correction.

EURUSD Fri 15 Mar

EURUSD bounces back higher. So much for the trend line break

Its Friday.... Blame it on Friday. Blame it on the weaker data out of the US so far () shrug The EURUSD cracked below a trend line on the hourly that should have swung bias a lower for the day. However, the 1.1300 level stalled the fall (low ticked to 1.12994) and the price started to move back higher. The high for the day comes in at 1.1328. The price just reached 1.13252 (the 61.8% is at 1.13256).  

SP Fri 15 Mar

US stocks open higher. Can the week end on a strong note?

3 of 4 days higher for the broader indices The US stocks are opening higher with the Nasdaq leading the way.  The broader indices (Nasdaq and S&P) have been up 3 of 4 days this week (modest declines yesterday). Can the bullishness today make it 4 of 5?  That would offset be a nice offset to last week when 5 of 5 days were lower. The Dow has been more up and down this week as Boeing weakness weighed on that index.

USDJPY Fri 15 Mar

USDJPY moves lower and back toward the 200 hour MA

The 200 hour MA stalled fall yesterday and today The USDJPY is going against the USDs move against other currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD, EUR).  The IP and Capacity utilzation just came out weaker which is contributing to some additional weakness.

USDCAD Fri 15 Mar

The USDCAD tests - moves above - the 100 hour MA

The pair is also testing the 38.2% of the move down from last week's high The USDCAD is testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.33516 and the 38.2% of the move down from last weeks high. That comes in a few pips higher at 1.33552.    PS the price also moved above a trend line at 1.3346. That is close risk now. 


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