Jeopardy winners and trading winners have a lot in common
I posted the below educational post yesterday, but wanted to give an update on the results from last nights show, and give weekend viewers a chance to do a little homework (it is a little longer than most posts).
Some negative ticks in the major indices
The gains in the S&P and the Nasdaq have eroded. There is no real news. Data today started strong with the retail sales and jobless claims stronger than expectations, but the Markit PMI data was weaker.
Yields are still lower. Dow up. Nasdaq unchanged in pre-market trading
The USDJPY moved higher on the back of the better data today (claims and Retail sales). The price moved to a London session high at 112.02 from 111.87 before the number, but it currently trading at 111.92. So the pair is not running.
Channel trend line not far away.
The GBPUSD is challenging the 1.3000 level (EURUSD moves to new low too). The pair moved below the 1.3000 earlier today and also back on April 5th when the low for the month was reached at 1.2986, but it quickly snapped back.
Retraced to 61.8% of the move up in April
The EURUSD moved to a new session low after the better than expected US retail sales and jobless claims data. THe pair moved to a low of 1.12373. That was just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the April low to high trading range at 1.12367. The current price is back up to 1.1243.
The USD is mostly higher
As NA traders enter for the day, the JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher as flight to safety flows lead after No. Koreas missile test, anxiety about the Muelller report, weaker data in Europe. There is a out at the bottom of the hour.
UK retail sales holds firm in Q1 as March data beats expectations
But that isn't enough to really generate much buzz in the pound with cable rising from 1.3010 levels to 1.3030 following the data release. Not that it's much of a surprise as despite the data beat, pound sentiment remains largely dependent on Brexit at this point and the earlier release doesn't really do much to change that picture.
EUR/USD brought lower from 1.1290 to a low of 1.1265
Much like the reports on ECB doubting economic growth earlier this week, the German data earlier basically highlights the fragility of the recent rally in the euro. While the manufacturing print improved from March to April, it's the sheer disappointment relative to expectations is what markets are focusing on upon the release.
AUD/USD buyers still looking for a firm break above the 200-day moving average
Yesterday's run higher failed to culminate into anything meaningful as buyers failed to secure a daily close above the 200-day MA (blue line). Today, that level rests at 0.7190 and will be a key point of contention once again as price lingers around 0.7180-90 levels after touching a high of 0.7199 earlier.
All eyes turn to Eurozone PMI data for further direction
Near-term bias is more neutral as price holds in between the key hourly moving averages, just under the 100-hour MA (red line) but above the 200-hour MA (blue line). The focus now turns towards the release of PMI data from Europe, beginning with France at 0715 GMT.
Breaks above swing area and topside channel trend line
The USDJPY has been accelerating to the upside this week (). Over the weekend SNBs Jordan said the central bank could cut rates or intervene. That helped the weak bias in the CHF (higher USDCHF).
A move below will be eyed by sellers now followed by the 126.16-21 area
The falll from the high today moved down to test the rising 100 hour MA, and that level has stalled the fall (so far at least). Dip buyers, looking for more upside (and move above the ceiling) are sticking a toe against the MA level, with stops likely on a break below. Like at the highs, risk is defined and limited.
100 hour MA eyed below
The USDJPY is sputtering near topside resistance, but holds on to more bullish bias.
Looking at the daily chart above, the 112.076-279 area is home to swing levels going back to late October (it dissects more bullish and more bearish). The highs this week (and on Friday), have seen sellers leaning in that area. Today, the high reached 112.159, and backed off. Buyers could not push to and above the 112.279 level.
The GBPUSD trading in a channel
The GBPUSD is trading in a channel with more of a bearish bias. The price also traded below the 200 hour MA today. Yesterday, that MA was busted early in the NY session, on reports of stalls in Brexit negotiations, and stayed below that MA for the rest of the day (see green line at 1.30699). The high today reached 1.30663 and reversed lower. Going forward, if the bulls are to push higher, that MA would need to be broken.
Move lower early in the sesson just can't keep the momentum going
The EURUSD set a double top in trading in the London morning sesssion at the 1.13233. When the price cannot extend above a prior high, it sours the mood of the market traders.
The USD Is mixed.
As the NA session begins, the AUD is the strongest helped by stronger China data overnight. while the NZD is the weakest. It was hurt early by weaker CPI data (but did recover part of the losses on the back of the China data). The USD is little changed overall with gains vs the NZD and CHF and declines vs the AUD, CAD and EUR. The greenback is little changed vs the GBP, JPY in the morning snapshot.