Technical Analysis

US dollar moves to new lows vs some of the major currencies as the day moves toward the close

New lows vs EUR, GBP, CHF The USD is moving to new lows vs some of the major currencies. More specifically, the dollar is trading at new lows vs the EUR, GBP and CHF. 

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SP Fri 7 May

Dow and S&P close at record levels

Major indices all close higher The final closing levels are showing: For the trading week, the NASDAQ index declined while the Dow and S&P both rose.

CFTC Fri 7 May

CFTC commitments of traders: The loonie longs increased by 10K in the current week

Weekly forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending May 4, 2021 - EUR long 85K vs 81K long last week. Longs increased by 4K - GBP long 20K vs 29K long last week. Longs trimmed by 9K

SP Fri 7 May

S&P and Dow trade at new record highs

Nasdaq trades to session highs The new all-time high for the S&P is up at 4235.47.  That took out the previous all-time high  at 4216.10. The Dow took out the high reached yesterday at 34561 area.  

SP Fri 7 May

US stocks open mixed after jobs report

NASDAQ leads away but well off the postemployment highs A snapshot of the market a few minutes into the opening showing: looking at other markets: A snapshot of the forex market shows the EUR is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest of the majors. The USD has moved lower but is off the lowest levels post the employment report.  The snapshot 12 minute after the jobs report can be found  for comparison to current changes.    

GBPUSD Fri 7 May

GBPUSD moves back below the previous highs for the week after spike higher

GBPUSD high stalled ahead of last week's high The GBPUSD has retraced back down to (and below) the highs from earlier in the week. The Monday high reach 1.39314. The Wednesday high reached 1.39257. The high from yesterday after the BOE rate decision reached 1.3940.


Initial reactions: Dollar falls after the weaker US jobs report. NASDAQ index rises. Dow falls. Yields fall

Spike lower in the dollar is the initial post jobs reaction The US dollar has fallen after the weaker to US jobs report. The exception is the USDCAD as Canada also reported weaker data (although influenced by lockdown). The US dollar was marginally higher going into the report with modest declines of -0.8% versus the EUR and GBP (see US opening report ). 

FOREX Fri 7 May

The GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

The USD is mixed/marginally stronger as traders await the US employment report As traders await the US employment report at the bottom of the hour, the GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The GBP was the weakest of the majors at the close yesterday.  The USD is mixed but tilting to the upside ahead of the key US employment report where expectations are for an even 1M change in NFP jobs and a dip in the US employment rate to 5.8% from 6% last month.  The earnings are expected to be unchanged MoM.  US stocks in pre-market trading are higher. US yields are near unchanged. Gold is up after a big gain yesterday took the precious metal above $1800. Canada will also report their jobs data with exectations for -150K vs +303.1K last month (unemployment rate going to 8% from 7.5%).

SP Thu 6 May

The Dow industrial average closes at another record high

NASDAQ snaps four days losing streak. The US stocks rallied into the close with the Dow ending the session at a new record and at the highs of the day. The index is closing up 315.76 points for the fourth higher close in as many days. The NASDAQ index is also closing higher for the first time in five trading days. 

USDCAD Thu 6 May

New lows for the USDCAD

Selling continues in the USDCAD The USDCAD selling continues.   Looking at the daily chart, the pairs is now moving further away from the broken trend line at 1.2190.  The price has traded to a new low going back to September 2017 to a low at 1.21753.  I would peg risk under 1.2200 now.  More conservative risk would be the 1.2455 low from 2018.  


Crude oil futures settle at $64.71

WTI crude oil settles at $64.71. Down $0.92 or -1.4% The high for the day reached $65.98. The low extended to $64.50 The next target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 22 low at $64.41. The rising 200 hour moving average is below that at $64.09. The price has not traded below the 200 hour moving average since April 27. 

USDJPY Thu 6 May

USDJPY swing area under pressure by sellers.

200 hour MA is also in play The USDJPY rebounded off a swing area in the London morning session and bounced above the 100 hour MA.  The break saw increased upside momentum but the high stalled short of the earlier high and the ceiling level from Tuesday and Wednesday at 109.48.  

USDJPY Thu 6 May

EURUSD trades back below 100 day MA as the move higher stalls

High for the day extends above 200 hour MA but rally fizzles out The EURSD earlier in the NY session tested, then moved above the 200 hour MA at 1.20611. The price moved to a high at 1.2072. That was short of the Monday high at 1.2075 when the pair also tried to extend above the 200 hour MA.   

GOLD Thu 6 May

Gold moves sharply higher and back above the $1800 level

Test the 50% retracement of the 2021 trading range Technically, the price has moved back above its 100 day moving average at $1795.91. The move back above the $1800 level was also a significant tilt to the upside.

DOW Thu 6 May

Dow industrial average trades at record high levels

New all-time high set at 34413.25 Meanwhile the NASDAQ index has clawed back most of its declines and trades down just six points or -0.04% at 13577. The low price for the day reached 13439.39.


European shares ending the session mixed

UK FTSE 100 rises. German DAX, France's CAC near unchanged They snapshot of the provisional closes shows: in other markets as European traders look to exit: The price action in the forex market has seen mixed price action. 

USDCAD Thu 6 May

USDCAD tests a lower trendline on the daily chart

Key target for the USDCAD With the USCAD breaking below its 2018 low price of 1.22455, the price is in more open road.     Looking at the daily chart of the USDCAD, however, the pair is testing a lower trendline now at 1.2190.  That trendline can next lows from December and again in March.  Will buyers lean/take profit.  Be aware. A move below keeps the door wide open for further downside probing.

USDCHF Thu 6 May

USDCHF trades down to test 100/200 day MAs

Price dips below 200 day MA and briefly below 100 day MA too The USDCHF has the 200 day MA at 0.90841 and the 100 day MA relatively close to that level at 0.90718.  The pair just move to a new session low to 0.90701. That was just below the 100 day moving average but the price has snapped back higher.  The pair currently trades right at the 200 day moving average.

NASDAQ Thu 6 May

NASDAQ index moves to new lows after Kaplan comments

Kaplan states his reasons for tapering The NASDAQ index has moved to new lows after Dallas Fed president Kaplan says that the Fed has met the bar for making "substantial further progress" for tapering. He sites more vaccine rollout and more fiscal aid.  He also adds that he expects to meet standards for Fed rate lift off sometime in 2022


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