Crude oil inventory at the bottom of the hour
Technically, the price low yesterday bounced off its 100 hour moving average. Today the 100 hour moving average also held support before the price started to rotate back to the upside (see blue line in the chart below).
NASDAQ index leads the way to the downside
Expect volatile trading as the market continues to worry about interest rates rising. The 10 year is now up 8.53 basis points to 1.4269%. The 2 – 10 year spread is at its highest level since 2016.
Futures are implying a lower levels for the major indices
The financial futures for the equities are implying a lower opening. The indices have been moving lower since peaking earlier in the New York session
100 hour moving average, 200 hour moving average and 200 day moving average all broken near 105.46 today
The USDJPY has raced higher today. The pair close yesterday at 105.20. The early Asian session saw the price move up to test and then break a cluster of 3 moving averages including the 200 hour moving average, the 200 day MA and the 100 hour MA. All were centered around the 105.46 area. After basing against those moving averages for 5 or so hours, the buyers took the bull by the horns (i.e. the bulls/buyers took control) and the price started to run to the upside.
Gold falling. The dollar is rising
With the US yields running to the upside (the 30 year was up over 10 basis points and the 10 year was up over 7 bps), the US stocks started to give up their gains. The major indices are now trading negative on the day with the Dow down 37 points, and the NASDAQ down 60 points. The dollar has moved higher and gold prices have moved lower (down $-16)..
Stops send the pair higher in the Asian session. The rest of the day has been working back down
The GBPUSD raced higher in early Asian trading in what it is being attributed to stop buying. The pair has been trending to the upside. The the pair had been up for 4 consecutive days and extended above the 1.4000 level in the process.
Initial bounce off of the level
The range for the EURUSD is now up to 44 pips. That is still shy of the 64 pip average seen over the last 22 days of trading (about a month). So there is room to roam. The sellers are making the play for more control, but they still need to get back below the 100 hour moving average. Below that and traders will be looking toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.21195 and the 200 hour moving average at 1.21165.
The USD is mixed to lower in early NY trading
As North American traders enter for the day, the NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest of the major currencies. The USD is trading mixed with a downward tilt. The greenback is lower most vs the NZD (-0.68%) and CAD (-0.26%), and down more modestly verse the AUD, GBP and EUR. The dollar is higher vs the JPY (+0.57%) and CHF (+0.29%). The CHF moved sharply higher yesterday after breaking back above its 100 day MA and running to the upside. The GBP had a rollercoaster ride with a sharp move higher in the Asian session on stop buying (EURGBP was on the move as well), but has since given up some of those gains in some of the pairs. The GBPJPY and GBPCHF remains higher as they have seen moves in the USDJPY and USDCHF that are keeping them higher still on the day. Fed's Powell will once again testify on Capitol Hill. Yesterday he calmed the markets saying the Fed is still a long way away from inflation being a problem, and full employment. His testimony will begin at 10 AM. New home sales will also be released at that time. At 10:30 ET the weekly will inventory data will be released.
EUR/CHF climbs to 1.1050 levels, nearing the October 2019 highs
The meltdown in the franc over the past two days is also helped by the turnaround in sentiment with US equities rebounding strongly after Fed chair Powell's testimony yesterday, and also as European investors are brushing aside the risk averse tones earlier.
USD/JPY trades to session highs as the risk mood improves slightly to start European morning trade today
The yen is continuing to be pressured since trading yesterday, amid a turnaround in equities sentiment and that is stretching further to today as well.
The pound ran some stops earlier today with EUR/GBP falling below 0.8600
The pound continues to do no wrong since the start of the year as the spike earlier today just bolsters the technical picture in the quid across the board for the moment.
Re-approaching 50% midpoint and 200 hour MA
Dow reached 31158.76 or -1.15%.
Should the price continued to move higher, the pair would approach the 50% midpoint of the move up from the February 1 low of 12985.05. That low was approached today but fell 18 points shy of the level. The midpoint level comes in at 13580.08.
GBPCHF runs 1.35%
The CHF pairs are all running with the CHF getting hit hard.
Looking at the % changes of the CHF pairs, the currency is down the most vs GBP (-1.35%) and CAD (-1.21%), but the current snapshot shows declines of -0.80% to -1.35% vs the major currencies.
Moves above the swing area and looks toward February high
Recall from an earlier post, the pair has been playing games with the 100 day MA at 0.89854 over the last 2 trading days. Yesterday the price moved above the moving average line and spiked up to the high of 0.90229, but then tumbled back below the key line.