Technical Analysis

EURUSD tests a lower swing level, retracing the earlier gains

The pair remained below its 100 hour moving average on the corrective move higher The EURUSD is testing a lower swing area near 1.1721 and 1.17264. The move to the downside has nearly retraced the earlier session lows which came in just below that swing area at 1.17177. 

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RISK Tue 21 Sep

S&P 500 to stick with bounce of key technical level?

The S&P 500 fell to test its 100-day moving average for the first time since October last year It was one of the worst fall in months for US equities but at the end of the day, the S&P 500 managed to cling on and hold off a break below its 100-day moving average (red line).

GBPUSD Mon 20 Sep

Cable hits new lows as sentiment deteriorates further

Cable down a full cent It's going from bad to worse with the S&P 500 now down 107 points and breaking the 100-day moving average. The negativity is weighing on cable as it hits a new low of 1.3641, down a full cent on the day. It's a marginal new low as the FX market paints a more mixed picture, in part due to US rate differentials coming in on a strong bid in Treasuries.

SPX Mon 20 Sep

S&P 500 falls below the 100-day moving average for the first time since October

First time below the 100-dma in the Biden era The S&P 500 hasn't been below the 100-day moving average since late October. Even then it was only for a few days. Before that you need to go back to May 2020 for a sustained stretch below the key level, which is at 4326 today.

USDJPY Mon 20 Sep

USDJPY falls to a new low as stocks continue slide

Swing are between 109.407 and 109.479 are being tested The USDJPY has fallen to a new low as stocks slide. The pair move off its earlier session low at 109.425, and ran up to test its 100 hour moving average at 109.639 (see blue line in the chart above).   The subsequent move to the downside has taken the price back to the swing area between 109.407 and 109.479 (see red numbered circles). A move below that level would have traders looking toward the extremes from August and September. On Thursday, the low price reached 109.206. On Wednesday, the low price reached 109.11.  That low was near the same low price is going back to August 16 and 17th open price (triple bottom at the level).

NASDAQ Mon 20 Sep

Dow down 700 points. Nasdaq down over 400 points. S&P tests its 100 day moving average

Major indices getting hammered Taking a look at the S&P on the daily chart above, the price has moved down to test its 100 day moving average. That moving average currently comes in at 4328.57. The low price for the day has reached 4335.17. So the price is within six – seven points of that key moving average line. The price of the S&P index has not traded below its 100 day moving average since November 2, 2020.

EURUSD Mon 20 Sep

EURUSD rebounds above swing area resistance.

Tests the August 27 swing low see earlier post here The pair is currently testing the August 27 low that comes in at 1.17346. More momentum above that level, will have traders looking toward the 1.17421 and the 1.1750 swing low level. That 1.1750 level was was the swing low going back to last Thursday's trade. Get above and it would be a another positive for the buyers from a technical perspective.

GBPUSD Mon 20 Sep

The GBPUSD consolidates in the lower end of the day's trading range

Up and down action between 1.3645 and 1.3699 (call it 1.3700) The GBPUSD is consolidating in the lower end of the day's trading range. The pair is trading down -0.53%, but has been consolidating between the low for the day at 1.3645 and the most recent corrective high at 1.3699 (call it 1.3700). The current price is trading between those levels of 1.3668. 

DOLLAR Mon 20 Sep

Dollar sees some selling as the US morning progresses

Shifts in the major currency pairs The dollar is seeing selling as the US morning progresses. The stocks still remain sharply lower with the NASDAQ index doing worse than premarket levels at the start of the New York session, but there has been some shifts in the currency trends from the start of the day.

USDJPY Mon 20 Sep

USDJPY rebounds but runs into the 100 hour moving average

Swing area also tested The USDJPY has rebounded off the lows, but still has some overhead technical resistance in the way. Looking at the hourly chart, the price earlier today fell below the 100 day moving average, 200 hour moving average and 100 hour moving average at 109.845, 109.824 and 109.651 respectively. The low price reached 109.425 which was within a lower swing area between 109.407 and 109.479.

USDCHF Mon 20 Sep

USDCHF moves back lower after the technical break higher on Friday

The swing area between 0.9267 and 0.9280 is eyed On Friday, despite anxious (lower) equity markets, the USDCHF rose sharply. Typically, the CHF is a safe haven currency. On Friday (and last week) the technicals took control and the CHF fell despite lower equities for the day/week. 

EURUSD Mon 20 Sep

EURUSD steps to the next target area ahead of the 2021 low

Swing area between 1.1701 to 1.1705 The EURUSD has stepped down to the next target area as the dollar is bid vs the EUR on flight to the relative safety of the USD. The 1.1701 to 1.17054 area is the support swing area going back to August 11 to August 23 period. That area is above the year's swing low reached on August 20 at 1.16634. On a  break of the 1.1700 level, the swing low at 1.16634 for the year will be the next major target on the downside. 

CADJPY Mon 20 Sep

CAD/JPY breaks 85.00; threatens the August spike low

CAD/JPY down 118 pips to 84.92 At the peak of the delta-variant concerns, CAD/JPY was hit hard in a sharp drop to 84.64 from 88.00 over the course of several days.

FOREX Mon 20 Sep

The JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest of the major currencies

Flight into the relative safety of the JPY, CHF and USD.  As the North American session gets underway, the JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. China's Evergrande (the worlds most indebted property developer) likely default this week (on Thursday) sent the Hang Seng index down -3.3% on concerns that the potential financial markets stress may ripple through to other sectors of China's (and global) the economy. European shares are sharply lower, as are the pre-market levels in the US.  The FOMC board meets this week ahead of its rate decision on Wednesday with the Dow down over 600 points ahead of the open. Here we go again? Will the Fed be influenced by the equity markets risks on top of the other risks from Covid Delta variant, etc.? Canada has elections today. The NAHB housing market index will be released at 10 AM ET. Last month it came in at 75.

CADJPY Mon 20 Sep

CAD/JPY on the brink as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate

CAD/JPY contests key daily support at 85.42 We're back here once again for CAD/JPY after the warning from earlier today . here With oil pressured down by 2% to $70.50 and 10-year Treasury yields marked down by 4 bps to 1.33%, the pressure is on as sellers look to make the most of the situation and go in search of the next leg lower.

OIL Mon 20 Sep

Oil stays in retreat amid softer risk tones today

Oil fell by over 2% to a low of $70.22 in the past hour The drop is pared slightly now to $70.60 levels as buyers are clinging on to the 200-hour moving average (green line) for support:

CADJPY Mon 20 Sep

CAD/JPY edges towards key support once again

Third time's the charm for sellers? In August, the pair towards the downside, only for and salvage the situation. looked destined for a technical breakout buyers to rise back from the dead

BONDS Mon 20 Sep

Treasury yields pull back, trying to balance risk sentiment and Fed expectations

10-year Treasury yields down 2.5 bps today Bond traders are facing a bit of a tough time to start the week, as the more dour risk sentiment is seeing bids flow through and offsetting some of the moves on Friday.

EURUSD Mon 20 Sep

EUR/USD pressured towards 1.1700 on firmer dollar

EUR/USD trades to its lowest in a month, down to 1.1709 currently With the dollar pushing gains across the board, EUR/USD is being pressured towards 1.1700 now as sellers go in search of a third straight day of declines for the pair.

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