Technical Analysis

USDCAD moving back below the 100/200 hour MAs keeps the sellers happy

The sharp fall after the BOC yesterday saw the corrective rally extend above the 100/200 hour MAs earlier today The Bank of Canada surprise market yesterday by announcing they would stop there bond buying and will look to raise rates in the middle quarters of next year.

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CRUDE-OIL Thu 28 Oct

WTI crude oil futures settle at $82.81

Crude oil is up $0.15 or 0.18% The low for the day came in at $80.58.   The high was and the $82.91.

SP Thu 28 Oct

US major indices open higher

NASDAQ index leading the way today A snapshot of the market currently shows: A snapshot of the other markets currently shows: In the forex, the winners and losers have been shuffled around in early New York trading. The JPY is the strongest of the majors, while the CAD is the weakest. For a look at the winners and losers at the start of the NY session . The EUR has moved higher after Lagarde. The USD has moved more to the downside with only a small gain vs the CAD. Versus the rest of the major currencies, the greenback is lower. 

USDJPY Thu 28 Oct

USDJPY lower and hangs below the 100 hour MA

...but price is not going far The USDJPY is lower on the day. The tilt lower started in the Asian session after the pair could not extend above its 100 hour moving average (blue line).  Sellers leaned, and that tilted the bias to the downside. 

GBPUSD Thu 28 Oct

GBPUSD chops up and down with a modest upside bias

The 100/200 hour MA (and 100 day MA) stalls the rallies The GBPUSD continues the chop but with modest upside bias. Having said that, the pair has run into topside resistance defined by a cluster of moving averages including the:

EURUSD Thu 28 Oct

EURUSD extends range to the upside as Lagarde press conference continues

Price breaking above 100 and 200 hour moving averages and extending the range As ECBs Lagarde press conference continues and after better claims data, and lower US GDP, the EURUSD is breaking to the upside, and making new highs.

FOREX Thu 28 Oct

The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins

The major currencies are scrunched together The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest in the morning snapshot as North American traders enter for the day. The EUR is mostly lower after they kept policy unchanged. The Lagarde presser will start at 8:30 AM ET. The major currencies are a scrunched together ahead of the first read of the US GDP. The Atlanta Fed GDP model fell to 0.2% yesterday. That was the low of all their estimates over the progression of the quarter. The economists have the number pegged much higher at 2.7% but with a large range of expectations (from about 0.5% to 5%.  So it's anyone's guess.  The report will be releases at 8:30 AM along with the initial claims. Stocks are higher. Ford shares are up 7.7% in pre-market trading after better earnings and guidance.  Apple and Amazon earnings will be released after the close - completing the earnings cycle for the quarter of the biggest of names (Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet).  House Dems are meeting with hope for a consensus after all the horse jockeying of late (esp among their own moderate Dems Manchin and Sinema).   US rates are higher, with a flatter yield curve. The 2-10 year spread has come down from about 113.4 pips two days ago to 101.7 basis points today.

USD Thu 28 Oct

Light changes among major currencies so far on the day

The yen leads while the euro is the laggard But the changes are nothing too significant as price action continues to keep more contained for the most part in European morning trade.

EURUSD Thu 28 Oct

EUR/USD continues to show a lack of conviction, awaiting the ECB

EUR/USD continues to trade close to the 1.1600 level This all points to a lack of conviction among traders for the time being with the euro focused on the ECB meeting later today.

AUDUSD Thu 28 Oct

AUD/USD caught in a bit of a push and pull around 0.7500

AUD/USD has been rocking back and forth a little in the past few days Looking at the near-term chart: Buyers are keeping a more bullish near-term bias but there are signs of exhaustion as we test the key hourly moving averages on multiple occasions over the past few sessions.

USDJPY Thu 28 Oct

Yen leads the way ahead of European trading

Other major currencies keep more mixed While yields are holding up better so far today, the mild bounce pales in comparison to the sharp drop overnight and yen pairs are still failing to get off the ground.

DOW Wed 27 Oct

US stocks sell off into the close. Dow and S&P lower. Nasdaq unchanged.

Russell 2000 tumbles -1.90% The major US indices are closing mostly lower. The exception is the Nasdaq which closed higher by 0.12 points or 0.00% (call it higher but just barely). 

GBPUSD Wed 27 Oct

GBPUSD remains lower on the day but a stronger floor is created today

Price remains below topside cluster of MAs The GBPUSD moved down to test the swing low from October 18 at 1.37085 in the late London morning session and found buyers as US traders entered for the day.  The corrective high reached 1.37537.

EURUSD Wed 27 Oct

EURUSDs ups and downs continue intraday

Range from 1.1583 to 1.1624 Near the highs are the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.1618 and 1.16223. The low has swing highs and lows going back to October 8.  On October 18, the price did move below the lower swing area to a low of 1.1571 where support buyers leaned against the 200 hour MA at the time.  

SP Wed 27 Oct

It's the Nasdaq's turn to lead the charge. Dow down. S&P unchanged.

Nasdaq up nearly 100 points It is the NASDAQ turn to lead the charge to the upside. It is currently up nearly 100 points or 0.64% at 15333.05. Meanwhile,

USDJPY Wed 27 Oct

USDJPY stayed below its 100 hour moving average resistance

Mixed stocks. Lower yields The USDJPY moved higher in the US morning session, and in the process moved up to test its 100 hour moving average at 113.828 currently (.  The sellers leaned against the level and have pushed the price back to the downside. The pair currently trades at 113.68.  

USDCAD Wed 27 Oct

USD/CAD retraces 38.2% of the BOC drop

It's a good time to use the Fibs The Bank of Canada is done for the day after taking a hawkish turn by ending QE prematurely. Macklem didn't say much in the press conference but it's important to note what he say. He didn't push back against market pricing for four rate hikes next year. In fact, the BOC moved up its estimate of the output gap closing from H2 2022 to the 'middle quarters' of 2022, meaning a hike could come as soon as the April 13 BOC.


European major indices close lower

Euro Stoxx index comes off a record close reached yesterday The major European indices are closing lower on the day. It comes a day after the Euro Stoxx 600 index closed a record level yesterday. Today, the index was down -0.1%. 

AUDUSD Wed 27 Oct

AUDUSD stays in the upper portion of the range

Holds support near 0.7488 and 100 hour MA at 0.73924 The AUDUSD has been mired in it's own up and down price action today. The Asian session saw an initial move to the upside, which then rotated back to the downside in the early European session before moving back higher that is North American traders entered. 

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