USD/CAD is back to flat levels on the day
Oil is slipping back further into negative territory on the day, down by 0.5% now to $51.85 as European equities moved lower earlier as well. That's helping to see USD/CAD move higher as price turns flat on the day while still sitting between the two key hourly moving averages.
The talk that the EU won't budge on the vote is a bit rich -- that's exactly the kind of thing Theresa May would want to leak ahead of the vote but it's not helping. In any case, it's not like May has much chance of winning this vote. Maybe there's a bit of a sell-the-rumour-buy-the-fact trade underway?
New month highs for the broad index
The S&P index moved to new day and month high at 2613.08. It traded at the highest level since December 14 (a month ago). The price off the low also rose by 11.3% off the December lows. Great stuff.
The price stayed below the 200 hour MA on the correction today
The EURUSD is down testing the 61.8% of the move up from the December low. That level comes in at 1.1383 and the price just reached that level (low for the day).
Some levels to watch. Some risks you face
Prime Minister May's plan for Brexit will go to a vote with the expectation for a rejection. Then it gets interesting on whether there is a modified deal, or is there a general election, or a different deal, or 2nd referendum or no deal. Who knows?
Netflix up as they raise prices for To $13 from $11
The US stocks are opening with modest gains. The snapshot of early trading is showing:
In the US debt market, the yield curve is steeper with the short end yield down and the 30 year yield up a touch.
Look for sellers on rallies
The EURUSD traded between the 100 and 200 hour MAs since breaking below the 100 hour MA on Friday (see yellow area in the chart below). That was the case into today until the 200 hour MA was broken. The buyers shyed away, and the price fell.
Empire Manufacturing has a big move lower
The Empire Manufacturing has moved lower after the Empire Manufacturing data came in weaker than expected. The fall takes the price back toward the 200 and 100 hour MAs which currently come in at 108.32 and 108.29 respectively. Earlier, those MAs stalled the fall and pushed the price higher toward the underside of a broken trend line.
The USD is higher. The GBP (on Brexit vote day) is mixed.
As the North American session begins, the CAD is the strongest. The CHF is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher. It is the big Brexit vote day with all sorts of estimates for post trading with upside potentially at 1.4000 and downside to 1.1000 (). That's a big range (it will mess up charts as well if it goes to an extreme) - more on that later). With the risk, the CHF being the weakest is kinda confusing to me but it is running higher.
Price is now threatening a break of the 100-hour moving average
The near-term bullish bias/momentum is under threat now after several attempts since yesterday failed to break below the 100-hour MA (red line). Risk started the day on the front foot but tailed off mid-way through the European morning before JP Morgan triggered a further selloff now ahead of US trading.
USD/JPY falls to 108.35 and tests the 200-hour moving average
The pair is now running into support from the 200-hour MA (blue line) with the 100-hour MA (red line) sitting close by as risk sentiment starts to sour after JP Morgan earnings miss estimates. European stocks are beginning to pare gains with the DAX falling into negative territory and the broader Stoxx 600 index also turning flat on the day weighed lower by financials.Meanwhile, US equity futures are also just up by only 0.1% now with Treasury yields slipping to session lows.
Price breaks below the trendline support and the 200-hour moving average
The euro is hitting a five-day low against the dollar at the moment as the weight of the poor German annual growth last year is starting to feed into the currency. For the uninitiated, .
Cable is at nearly flat levels on the day now
The pair slipped to 1.2865 momentarily as the pound loses some steam with the meaningful vote later today hogging the spotlight. Price traded just above the 1.2900 handle to start the session and if anything, it appears markets are gearing up for May to lose the vote later - which she is expected to.
GBP/USD trades just above the 1.2900 handle ahead of European trading
The pound is still feeding off some positive vibes from talks of a no Brexit outcome and a possible extension to Article 50 ahead of the meaningful vote in parliament later. The vote is expected to take place approximately around 1900 to 2100 GMT and Theresa May is very much expected to be on the losing end of that.
USD/JPY touches a high of 108.75 and looks towards the 109.00 handle
After testing support at the 108.00 handle yesterday, price recovered back to test the key hourly moving averages but failed to move above it. However, in Asian trading today, buyers managed to find a way past both the 100 and 200-hour moving averages as risk sentiment improved, which means that the near-term bias is now more bullish.