Forexlive Latest News

JPM raise USD/CNY year-end forecast to 6.35 (from 6.25)

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Ahead of today's onshore yuan reference rate setting, a brief excerpt from a JP Morgan note  

Citing
  • recent surge in Treasury yields
  • possibility of further tantrum episodes sending yields up
  • the USD is in a more constructive phase - US economic growth upgrades due to huge fiscal stimulus
  • USD will outrun EM and specifically China growth 
---
As you can see from the chart below, JPM are not bullish for USD/CNY despite all the positives they cite, its just they are not as bearish as they were:

Ahead of today's onshore yuan reference rate setting, a brief excerpt from a JP Morgan note  

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Mon 8 Mar 2021 00:29:27 GMT

Deposits at Japan's banks have grown at their quickest pace ever

February bank deposits up 10% y/y. A Bank of Japan spokesman says this is not necessarily good news: (bolding mine) 

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Deposits at Japan's banks have grown at their quickest pace ever

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 8 Mar 2021 00:29:27 GMT
Category: News
0
February bank deposits up 10% y/y. A Bank of Japan spokesman says this is not necessarily good news: (bolding mine) 
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:55:14 GMT

BOJ watchers - we may get a clue today on the potential to widen the JGB band

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Amamiya is speaking at 3pm Tokyo time today, which is 0600 GMT.  Last week BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke on the March review of policy, and brought up the topic of widening the band for JGBs:

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BOJ watchers - we may get a clue today on the potential to widen the JGB band

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180305/amamiya-kuroda.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:55:14 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Amamiya is speaking at 3pm Tokyo time today, which is 0600 GMT.  Last week BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke on the March review of policy, and brought up the topic of widening the band for JGBs:
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:54:54 GMT

Japan data - Balance of Payment Current Account for January Y 646.8bn (vs. expected Y 1253.4bn)

Not moving yen too much upon release, it was not expected to.  BoP Current Account Balance Y 646.89bn, for a miss on the size of the surplus in the month. 

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Japan data - Balance of Payment Current Account for January Y 646.8bn (vs. expected Y 1253.4bn)

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:54:54 GMT
Category: News
0
Not moving yen too much upon release, it was not expected to.  BoP Current Account Balance Y 646.89bn, for a miss on the size of the surplus in the month. 
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:29:40 GMT

Bitcoin above $51K again

BTC had a good weekend and its extending its gain, currently just above USD51,000 A glance at the chart shows a few tops just over 51K. Anyone gonna stand in front of this train and short it? 

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Bitcoin above $51K again

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210307/btc-usd-08-march-2021.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:29:40 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
BTC had a good weekend and its extending its gain, currently just above USD51,000 A glance at the chart shows a few tops just over 51K. Anyone gonna stand in front of this train and short it? 
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:20:00 GMT

Currencies are higher against the USD after weekend US (more) stimulus news

The US dollar is lower, as is yen, on the flows to 'risk' following the news out of the US over the weekend: The bill will be voted on Tuesday in the House of Representatives where it is expected to pass easily. 

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Currencies are higher against the USD after weekend US (more) stimulus news

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:20:00 GMT
Category: News
0
The US dollar is lower, as is yen, on the flows to 'risk' following the news out of the US over the weekend: The bill will be voted on Tuesday in the House of Representatives where it is expected to pass easily. 
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:03:43 GMT

Oil prices have moved higher following the attacks on Saudi facilities on the weekend

Brent has popped above $70 / bbl. The news ICYMI: The Brent move above 70 is its highest since January of 2019. --- Elsewhere, US equity index futures are higher also following the weekend US stimulus news:

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Oil prices have moved higher following the attacks on Saudi facilities on the weekend

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 23:03:43 GMT
Category: News
0
Brent has popped above $70 / bbl. The news ICYMI: The Brent move above 70 is its highest since January of 2019. --- Elsewhere, US equity index futures are higher also following the weekend US stimulus news:
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 22:59:17 GMT

Morgan Stanley says US economy is on fire, the recession ... 'its over'

A snippet from a MS Sunday client note  Morgan Stanley cite: And say: --- Bond markets have been saying this for weeks, yep.

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Morgan Stanley says US economy is on fire, the recession ... 'its over'

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 22:59:17 GMT
Category: News
0
A snippet from a MS Sunday client note  Morgan Stanley cite: And say: --- Bond markets have been saying this for weeks, yep.
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 22:19:31 GMT

PIMCO says developed economies may require stimulus for longer than expected (because China)

Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets. - The  People's Bank of China have announced it has begun to reduce coronavirus-related stimulus early

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PIMCO says developed economies may require stimulus for longer than expected (because China)

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210307/pimco.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 22:19:31 GMT
Category: News
0
Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets. - The  People's Bank of China have announced it has begun to reduce coronavirus-related stimulus early
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 22:17:19 GMT

PIMCO says developed economies may require stimulus for longer than currently appreciated because of China winding back stimulus

Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets. The firm have a publicly available piece posted in which they argue:

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PIMCO says developed economies may require stimulus for longer than currently appreciated because of China winding back stimulus

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210307/pimco.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 22:17:19 GMT
Category: News
0
Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets. The firm have a publicly available piece posted in which they argue:
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 21:56:44 GMT

Trade ideas thread - Monday 8 March 2021

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:         

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Trade ideas thread - Monday 8 March 2021

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 21:56:44 GMT
Category: News
0
Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:         
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 21:27:59 GMT

Oil traders note - Saudi oil export ports, facilities targeted in attacks Sunday

Saudi Arabia says ports and other facilities have been targeted by drones and missile strikes but has assured that damage is minimal. A spokesman at the Ministry of Energy said 

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Oil traders note - Saudi oil export ports, facilities targeted in attacks Sunday

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210307/ras-tanura-saudi.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 21:27:59 GMT
Category: News
0
Saudi Arabia says ports and other facilities have been targeted by drones and missile strikes but has assured that damage is minimal. A spokesman at the Ministry of Energy said 
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 21:02:36 GMT

Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today - Monday 8 March 2021

China's trade balance for January and February (combined) was out over the weekend, export and import beats here: On the calendar here today: Later from Japan, 0500 GMT, there are data for the leading index and the 'economy watchers' survey.

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Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today - Monday 8 March 2021

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 21:02:36 GMT
Category: News
0
China's trade balance for January and February (combined) was out over the weekend, export and import beats here: On the calendar here today: Later from Japan, 0500 GMT, there are data for the leading index and the 'economy watchers' survey.
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Sun 7 Mar 2021 20:03:43 GMT

Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 8 March 2021

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week! - EUR/USD 1.1915 - USD/JPY 108.38 - GBP/USD 1.3831 - USD/CHF 0.9297

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Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 8 March 2021

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181224/china-thumbs.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 7 Mar 2021 20:03:43 GMT
Category: News
0
Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week! - EUR/USD 1.1915 - USD/JPY 108.38 - GBP/USD 1.3831 - USD/CHF 0.9297
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Sat 6 Mar 2021 22:02:44 GMT

36

US Senate passes $1.9 trillion stimulus bill

Huge spending bill passes 50-49 The US Senate passed Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package with a number of amendments after a marathon session. The bill now heads back to the House where a vote will be held on Tuesday. It could be signed into law shortly afterwards.

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US Senate passes $1.9 trillion stimulus bill

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210306/us-congress.png Adam Button
Sat 6 Mar 2021 22:02:44 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
36
Huge spending bill passes 50-49 The US Senate passed Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package with a number of amendments after a marathon session. The bill now heads back to the House where a vote will be held on Tuesday. It could be signed into law shortly afterwards.
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Sat 6 Mar 2021 13:48:16 GMT

10

A Fed hike is fully priced in for December 2022

What does it mean? The eurodollar curve has fully priced in an FOMC interest rate hike in December 2022. That's in stark contrast to Fed forecasts and messaging so one side has to be wrong. Normally that would be the Fed but maybe the rules of the game have changed.

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A Fed hike is fully priced in for December 2022

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180523/powell.png Adam Button
Sat 6 Mar 2021 13:48:16 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
10
What does it mean? The eurodollar curve has fully priced in an FOMC interest rate hike in December 2022. That's in stark contrast to Fed forecasts and messaging so one side has to be wrong. Normally that would be the Fed but maybe the rules of the game have changed.
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Fri 5 Mar 2021 21:12:46 GMT

7

ForexLive Americas FX wrap: Strong jobs report sparks a wild ride

Forex news for New York trade on March 5, 2021: Markets: - US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 1.55% - Gold up $1 to $1698 - WTI crude up $2.44 to $66.27 - S&P 500 up 73 points to 3841 Non-farm payrolls delivered yet another whipsaw to short-term traders. It's clear that the playbook going in was to sell risk, sell bonds and buy the US dollar on a strong report. When it came in very strong that's just what happened.

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ForexLive Americas FX wrap: Strong jobs report sparks a wild ride

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210305/fx-news-wrap-ticker-march-5-2021.png Adam Button
Fri 5 Mar 2021 21:12:46 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
7
Forex news for New York trade on March 5, 2021: Markets: - US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 1.55% - Gold up $1 to $1698 - WTI crude up $2.44 to $66.27 - S&P 500 up 73 points to 3841 Non-farm payrolls delivered yet another whipsaw to short-term traders. It's clear that the playbook going in was to sell risk, sell bonds and buy the US dollar on a strong report. When it came in very strong that's just what happened.
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Fri 5 Mar 2021 21:06:11 GMT

Major indices have another wild ride in trading today

Major indices close near highs for the day The major indices are all closing higher and near their session highs after earlier falls were erased.

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Major indices have another wild ride in trading today

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210305/snag_1c89c55.png Greg Michalowski
Fri 5 Mar 2021 21:06:11 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Major indices close near highs for the day The major indices are all closing higher and near their session highs after earlier falls were erased.
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Fri 5 Mar 2021 20:40:43 GMT

CFTC Commitments of Traders: EUR long position trimmed. GBP longs is the largest since April 2018

Weekly forex futures positioning data for the CFTC for the week ending Tuesday, March 2, 2021 Highlights:

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CFTC Commitments of Traders: EUR long position trimmed. GBP longs is the largest since April 2018

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210305/0-2021-03-05_13-38-51.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 5 Mar 2021 20:40:43 GMT
Category: News
0
Weekly forex futures positioning data for the CFTC for the week ending Tuesday, March 2, 2021 Highlights:
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Fri 5 Mar 2021 20:26:54 GMT

Fed's Bostic: Monetary stance is appropriate

Comments from the Atlanta Fed President: There's no hint of doing anything differently.

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Fed's Bostic: Monetary stance is appropriate

Adam Button
Fri 5 Mar 2021 20:26:54 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments from the Atlanta Fed President: There's no hint of doing anything differently.
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Fri 5 Mar 2021 20:03:30 GMT

2

US January consumer credit -$1.31B vs +$12.0B expected

US consumer credit outstanding for January 2021 It's rare to see credit tighten but revolving credit (which is credit cards) likely fell as people used stimulus payments to pay off credit card bills.

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US January consumer credit -$1.31B vs +$12.0B expected

Adam Button
Fri 5 Mar 2021 20:03:30 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
2
US consumer credit outstanding for January 2021 It's rare to see credit tighten but revolving credit (which is credit cards) likely fell as people used stimulus payments to pay off credit card bills.
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Fri 5 Mar 2021 19:46:25 GMT

2

Treasury auctions highlight the US economic calendar next week

What's on the economic calendar I've covered the bond market for 15 years and I can't remember a Treasury auction that's as highly anticipated as next week's.

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Treasury auctions highlight the US economic calendar next week

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210305/us-10s.png Adam Button
Fri 5 Mar 2021 19:46:25 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
2
What's on the economic calendar I've covered the bond market for 15 years and I can't remember a Treasury auction that's as highly anticipated as next week's.
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Fri 5 Mar 2021 19:34:09 GMT

Crude oil closes the week with solid gains

WTI crude oil settles at $66.09 Looking at the daily charts, the high price extended above the high from January 2020 (on a continuous active contract chart) at $65.65, but stalled just ahead of the 2019 high price at $66.60.. Getting above the 2019 high is needed to solicit more buying. Having said that there is good reason for traders to lean against the level as risk can be defined and limited.

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Crude oil closes the week with solid gains

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210305/2021-03-05_12-24-32.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 5 Mar 2021 19:34:09 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
WTI crude oil settles at $66.09 Looking at the daily charts, the high price extended above the high from January 2020 (on a continuous active contract chart) at $65.65, but stalled just ahead of the 2019 high price at $66.60.. Getting above the 2019 high is needed to solicit more buying. Having said that there is good reason for traders to lean against the level as risk can be defined and limited.
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Fri 5 Mar 2021 19:16:49 GMT

Bitcoin continues to follow the clues from the hourly MAs

Sellers lean against 100 hour MA now Looking at the hourly chart of bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange is showing up and down price action, but also some respect to the 100 hour MA. 

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Bitcoin continues to follow the clues from the hourly MAs

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210305/snag_163f379.png Greg Michalowski
Fri 5 Mar 2021 19:16:49 GMT
Category: Cryptocurrency
0
Sellers lean against 100 hour MA now Looking at the hourly chart of bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange is showing up and down price action, but also some respect to the 100 hour MA. 
Asset 24 View More
Fri 5 Mar 2021 18:42:40 GMT

5

White House: Minimum wage increase remains a priority for Biden

Bill to increase the minimum wage failed in the Senate Today 5-6 Senate Democrats joined with Republicans to defeat a bill to raise the minimum wage to $15/hour.

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White House: Minimum wage increase remains a priority for Biden

Adam Button
Fri 5 Mar 2021 18:42:40 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
5
Bill to increase the minimum wage failed in the Senate Today 5-6 Senate Democrats joined with Republicans to defeat a bill to raise the minimum wage to $15/hour.
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