S&P finds sellers ahead of the 50 day MA (again)

GMTAuthor: Greg Michalowski

The 50 day MA comes in at 2626.53. High reaches 2625.50. Netflix is the first major tech firm to report after the close. 

The S&P moved to a new session high at 2525.50 but still could not breach the 50 day MA at 2626.58 (one point short).  A move above targets the 50% at 2643.


After the close Netflix will report earnings.  They represent the first major high flyer to announce in the earnings season. Earlier this week, they announced that they will increase the price for their subscription service to $13 from $11.  Since the December 24 low, the price rise to the recent high bounced 55.19%.  Man.....  The price is above its 100 and 200 day MAs at $317.87 and $334.08.  Buy the rumor. Sell the fact? 



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Thu 17 Jan 2019 18:40:38 GMT

4

US State Department says all employees are expected to report to work next week

Secretary of State Pompeo can return to work The US State Department says that all employees are expected report to work next week despite the government shutdown.  HMMMMM

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US State Department says all employees are expected to report to work next week

Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 18:40:38 GMT
Category: News
4
Secretary of State Pompeo can return to work The US State Department says that all employees are expected report to work next week despite the government shutdown.  HMMMMM
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May's Brexit deal defeated in UK parliament with 432-202 votes against
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 18:24:07 GMT

1

AUDUSD reverses declines. Back to broken MAs too.

200 hour MA and 100 day MA retested The AUDUSD has erased earlier declines. The low today reached 0.71458 which was the near the low from January 10th. That level was also near other swing highs and lows. Holding was key.

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AUDUSD reverses declines. Back to broken MAs too.

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_11-14-15.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 18:24:07 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
1
200 hour MA and 100 day MA retested The AUDUSD has erased earlier declines. The low today reached 0.71458 which was the near the low from January 10th. That level was also near other swing highs and lows. Holding was key.
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 18:02:31 GMT

29

The GBPUSD moves to another new high

More momentum this time after pre-fixing fall whipped traders. I know I wrote how the waters got muddy on the break back below the 100 day MA.  That break occured a 10-15 minutes before the fixing.  By the time of the fixing, the price squeezed back higher and the price has moved to new session highs, and also above the Monday highs at 1.29298. The GBPUSD is trading at the highest level since November 15th.

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The GBPUSD moves to another new high

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_10-58-13.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 18:02:31 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
29
More momentum this time after pre-fixing fall whipped traders. I know I wrote how the waters got muddy on the break back below the 100 day MA.  That break occured a 10-15 minutes before the fixing.  By the time of the fixing, the price squeezed back higher and the price has moved to new session highs, and also above the Monday highs at 1.29298. The GBPUSD is trading at the highest level since November 15th.
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 17:38:48 GMT

2

Dualing letters from the UK leaders

Corbyn and May swap letters Labours Jeremy Corbyn and PM May are swapping letters about what's next. Corbyn served by saying he would not be willing to negotiate without assurances that "no-deal" outcome is ruled out, but stated a better deal would include a "new comprehensive UK-EU customs union; a strong Single Market deal' and guarantees that there can be no race to the bottom on rights and standards"

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Dualing letters from the UK leaders

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_10-22-00.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 17:38:48 GMT
Category: News
2
Corbyn and May swap letters Labours Jeremy Corbyn and PM May are swapping letters about what's next. Corbyn served by saying he would not be willing to negotiate without assurances that "no-deal" outcome is ruled out, but stated a better deal would include a "new comprehensive UK-EU customs union; a strong Single Market deal' and guarantees that there can be no race to the bottom on rights and standards"
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:52:02 GMT

5

S&P index moved toward the 50 day MA at 2626.52

Key target along with the 50% at 2643.75 are eyed by bulls and bears The S&P index is moving closer to the 50 Day MA. The pair is trading at session highs (up 6 points at 2622.10). The 50 day MA is at 2626.52 today. Yesterday, when the MA was at 2628, the high reached 2625.  

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S&P index moved toward the 50 day MA at 2626.52

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_9-49-36.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:52:02 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
5
Key target along with the 50% at 2643.75 are eyed by bulls and bears The S&P index is moving closer to the 50 Day MA. The pair is trading at session highs (up 6 points at 2622.10). The 50 day MA is at 2626.52 today. Yesterday, when the MA was at 2628, the high reached 2625.  
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:42:30 GMT

European stocks end the session with modest declines

UK FTSE down -0.4% The major European stock indices are ending the session with modest declines: In the 10 year note sector, yields are mixed with modest changes:

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European stocks end the session with modest declines

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_9-38-34.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:42:30 GMT
Category: News
0
UK FTSE down -0.4% The major European stock indices are ending the session with modest declines: In the 10 year note sector, yields are mixed with modest changes:
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:23:14 GMT

USDJPY moves back toward days high in down and up session

100 bar MA on 4 hour chart tested The USDJPY moved to new London/NY session highs and in the process tests the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 109.06.  The high yesterday also tested that MA level but stalled.  The MA is also in a swing area that defined swing highs from Jan8 and Jan 9 (at 108.99 to 109.08).  A move above the MA is more bullish. Getting and staying above the 109.19, would be even more bullish for the pair. 

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USDJPY moves back toward days high in down and up session

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_9-13-58.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:23:14 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
100 bar MA on 4 hour chart tested The USDJPY moved to new London/NY session highs and in the process tests the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 109.06.  The high yesterday also tested that MA level but stalled.  The MA is also in a swing area that defined swing highs from Jan8 and Jan 9 (at 108.99 to 109.08).  A move above the MA is more bullish. Getting and staying above the 109.19, would be even more bullish for the pair. 
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:10:09 GMT

UK Brexit spokeswoman: Have been opposition Labour lawmaker involved in discussions

Brexit updata from PM May's spokeswoman She says: The Labour leader Corbyn has been encouraging opposition lawmakers to shun discussions until the PM guaranteed there would not be a no-deal Brexit.

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UK Brexit spokeswoman: Have been opposition Labour lawmaker involved in discussions

Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:10:09 GMT
Category: News
0
Brexit updata from PM May's spokeswoman She says: The Labour leader Corbyn has been encouraging opposition lawmakers to shun discussions until the PM guaranteed there would not be a no-deal Brexit.
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:07:16 GMT

3

GBP yield differentials looking more attractive

What's moving markets on Thursday The pound continues to outperform in a week where Theresa May's Brexit deal was voted down in dramatic fashion and in a week where there has been a return of broad based dollar demand. A solid Philly Fed reading in the US session kept the Euro below 1.1400, though the single currency was supported on medium term interest.

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GBP yield differentials looking more attractive

https://www.youtube.com/embed/zQZY8imOIKg Forex Live
Thu 17 Jan 2019 16:07:16 GMT
Author: Forex Live
Category: News
3
What's moving markets on Thursday The pound continues to outperform in a week where Theresa May's Brexit deal was voted down in dramatic fashion and in a week where there has been a return of broad based dollar demand. A solid Philly Fed reading in the US session kept the Euro below 1.1400, though the single currency was supported on medium term interest.
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:57:17 GMT

1

Quarles goes off insurance script, comments on the US economy.

He is known as a hawk Fed's Quarles speaking at an insurance conference in NY, veered from the expected script and gives more than expected views on the economy:

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Quarles goes off insurance script, comments on the US economy.

Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:57:17 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
He is known as a hawk Fed's Quarles speaking at an insurance conference in NY, veered from the expected script and gives more than expected views on the economy:
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:51:49 GMT

GBPUSD dips back below the 100 day MA

Muddies the water for the bulls again.... The GBPUSD is dipping back below the broken 100 day MA at 1.28925, muddying the bullish waters.    The pair moved above the moving average earlier in the week (Monday and Tuesday). Each run higher eventually failed, and the price moved lower (see red shaded areas).

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GBPUSD dips back below the 100 day MA

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_8-48-56.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:51:49 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Muddies the water for the bulls again.... The GBPUSD is dipping back below the broken 100 day MA at 1.28925, muddying the bullish waters.    The pair moved above the moving average earlier in the week (Monday and Tuesday). Each run higher eventually failed, and the price moved lower (see red shaded areas).
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:39:27 GMT

Feds Quarles to speak ahead, but don't expect much

There is s dearth of news but this event won't help much I know the economic calendar is limited as a result of the partial US government shutdown, but Fed's Quarles appearance on a NY forum is not a place to look for any inspiration. He is scheduled to speak at 1545 GMT/10:45 AM ET.

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Feds Quarles to speak ahead, but don't expect much

Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:39:27 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
There is s dearth of news but this event won't help much I know the economic calendar is limited as a result of the partial US government shutdown, but Fed's Quarles appearance on a NY forum is not a place to look for any inspiration. He is scheduled to speak at 1545 GMT/10:45 AM ET.
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:34:23 GMT

1

IMF: Too early to assess economic damage from US government shutdown

IMF joins Fitch with general thoughts It must be a day for broad macro thoughts that tell us what we pretty much already know.  The IMF joins Fitch with broad thoughts.  They say:

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IMF: Too early to assess economic damage from US government shutdown

Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:34:23 GMT
Category: News
1
IMF joins Fitch with general thoughts It must be a day for broad macro thoughts that tell us what we pretty much already know.  The IMF joins Fitch with broad thoughts.  They say:
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:21:54 GMT

Fitch: More material threat to 2019 GDP forecast

US government shutdown could slow US Q1 growth Fitch is out with some thoughts on the US and EU. For the EU: For the US: For China: For the world: Not the best of reports from the ratings agency. 

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Fitch: More material threat to 2019 GDP forecast

Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:21:54 GMT
Category: News
0
US government shutdown could slow US Q1 growth Fitch is out with some thoughts on the US and EU. For the EU: For the US: For China: For the world: Not the best of reports from the ratings agency. 
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:07:43 GMT

USDCHF run higher continues. 200 day MA holds support on dip today.

Breaking away from the 100 and 200 day MA Yesterday, the USDCHF moved above the 100 and 200 day MAs at 0.9878 and 0.9890 respectively ().  The rise yesterday did stall at the most recent swing high from January 4th, but the correction off that level stalled both yesterday and today right at the 200 day MA (see hourly chart below). That hold gave the buyers the go ahead to take the price higher.  

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USDCHF run higher continues. 200 day MA holds support on dip today.

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_8-03-35.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 15:07:43 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Breaking away from the 100 and 200 day MA Yesterday, the USDCHF moved above the 100 and 200 day MAs at 0.9878 and 0.9890 respectively ().  The rise yesterday did stall at the most recent swing high from January 4th, but the correction off that level stalled both yesterday and today right at the 200 day MA (see hourly chart below). That hold gave the buyers the go ahead to take the price higher.  
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:52:02 GMT

GBPJPY back in the black after fall earlier stalled at support targets

A topside trend line at 140.78 The price of the GBPJPY bulls have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat today.  Earlier the pair moved sharply lower but the fall stalled in a swing area from earlier in the month and just above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below).  The rally in the London session since then, just took the price above the close from yesterday (140.47). A topside trend line cuts across at 140.78. The high just reached 140.65.

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GBPJPY back in the black after fall earlier stalled at support targets

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_7-44-48.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:52:02 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
A topside trend line at 140.78 The price of the GBPJPY bulls have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat today.  Earlier the pair moved sharply lower but the fall stalled in a swing area from earlier in the month and just above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below).  The rally in the London session since then, just took the price above the close from yesterday (140.47). A topside trend line cuts across at 140.78. The high just reached 140.65.
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:35:28 GMT

2

US stocks open with declines across the board

Morgan Stanley earnings disappoint.  Netflix after the close The major US stock indices are now officially open and a snap shot of the major indices is pointing to the downside. Morgan Stanley soured the mood of investors after missing on the top and bottom lines.  In addition more tension from Huawei has traders concerned about US/China relations.

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US stocks open with declines across the board

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_7-37-29.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:35:28 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
2
Morgan Stanley earnings disappoint.  Netflix after the close The major US stock indices are now officially open and a snap shot of the major indices is pointing to the downside. Morgan Stanley soured the mood of investors after missing on the top and bottom lines.  In addition more tension from Huawei has traders concerned about US/China relations.
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:28:06 GMT

EU Brexit negotiator Barnier: If Britain wants a deal that goes further than free trade, we are open

EU Brexit negotiator Barnier He adds: It seems that there are a lot of negotition bottlenecks. ForexLive

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EU Brexit negotiator Barnier: If Britain wants a deal that goes further than free trade, we are open

Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:28:06 GMT
Category: News
0
EU Brexit negotiator Barnier He adds: It seems that there are a lot of negotition bottlenecks. ForexLive
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:18:13 GMT

Reuters poll: BOC to raise rate to 2% in Q2. 2.25% in Q4

2nd hike pushed out to 4Q from 3Q previously A Reuters poll, is projecting that the Bank of Canada will raise rates to 2% in the 2nd quarter. That is the same path from the Jan 4 poll. What is different is the poll now shows a 2nd hike will occur in the 4Q vs the 3Q previously.

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Reuters poll: BOC to raise rate to 2% in Q2. 2.25% in Q4

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_7-16-47aaa.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:18:13 GMT
Category: News
0
2nd hike pushed out to 4Q from 3Q previously A Reuters poll, is projecting that the Bank of Canada will raise rates to 2% in the 2nd quarter. That is the same path from the Jan 4 poll. What is different is the poll now shows a 2nd hike will occur in the 4Q vs the 3Q previously.
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:02:08 GMT

Russia's Novak: Russia will try to accelerate cuts in output.

Crude oil is donw $-0.91 on -1.74% The price of crude oil is trading down -$0.91 or -1.74% on the day.  The decline is being helped by a report that U.S. crude production came in at 11.9 million barrels per day. This comes on the back of worries about weakening demand.

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Russia's Novak: Russia will try to accelerate cuts in output.

Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:02:08 GMT
Category: News
0
Crude oil is donw $-0.91 on -1.74% The price of crude oil is trading down -$0.91 or -1.74% on the day.  The decline is being helped by a report that U.S. crude production came in at 11.9 million barrels per day. This comes on the back of worries about weakening demand.
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:00:50 GMT

7

EURUSD holds trendline support at the low today.

Broken 61.8% stalls the rally so far today The EURUSD has defined the range today by using a lower trend line as support (that trend line comes in at 1.1368 currently), and the broken 61.8% retracement above at 1.14062. There is a topside trend line at 1.1410 (and moving lower).  

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EURUSD holds trendline support at the low today.

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_6-54-02.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 14:00:50 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
7
Broken 61.8% stalls the rally so far today The EURUSD has defined the range today by using a lower trend line as support (that trend line comes in at 1.1368 currently), and the broken 61.8% retracement above at 1.14062. There is a topside trend line at 1.1410 (and moving lower).  
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 13:30:45 GMT

4

Philadelphia Fed business outlook index 17.0 vs 9.5 estimate

Philadelphia Fed better than expectations - new orders index 21.3 versus 13.3 - employment index 9.6 versus 19.1 - prices paid index 32.7 versus 38.9 - prices received 24.8 versus 29.0 The Philly index is a welcome surprise. The NY and Richmond Fed index both showed unexpected declines. The indes is also still above the 0 line.   That is the good news. 

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Philadelphia Fed business outlook index 17.0 vs 9.5 estimate

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_6-37-45.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 13:30:45 GMT
Category: News
4
Philadelphia Fed better than expectations - new orders index 21.3 versus 13.3 - employment index 9.6 versus 19.1 - prices paid index 32.7 versus 38.9 - prices received 24.8 versus 29.0 The Philly index is a welcome surprise. The NY and Richmond Fed index both showed unexpected declines. The indes is also still above the 0 line.   That is the good news. 
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 13:30:11 GMT

1

Initial jobless claims 213K vs 220K estimate

Continuing claims 1737K versus 1734K estimate Despite the government shutdown the claims data still remains strong. However, the federal employees are reported on a lag. As a result, the impact may not be fully known. Nevertheless into day 27, you gotta think the lag has had some time and the data is not showing much weakness. 

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Initial jobless claims 213K vs 220K estimate

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_6-35-36.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 13:30:11 GMT
Category: News
1
Continuing claims 1737K versus 1734K estimate Despite the government shutdown the claims data still remains strong. However, the federal employees are reported on a lag. As a result, the impact may not be fully known. Nevertheless into day 27, you gotta think the lag has had some time and the data is not showing much weakness. 
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Thu 17 Jan 2019 13:23:22 GMT

1

GBPUSD trades to new session highs

Moves back above the 100 day MA The GBPUSD is trading to new session highs and moving away from the 100 day MA in the process.   The pair is approaching the high from last week at 1.29298.  A break above would take the pair to the highest level since November 15th.  

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GBPUSD trades to new session highs

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190117/2019-01-17_6-20-19.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 17 Jan 2019 13:23:22 GMT
Category: News
1
Moves back above the 100 day MA The GBPUSD is trading to new session highs and moving away from the 100 day MA in the process.   The pair is approaching the high from last week at 1.29298.  A break above would take the pair to the highest level since November 15th.  
Asset 24 View More

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