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USDCAD falls after the Bank of Canada decision to stop bond buying

Author: Greg Michalowski

Also expects rate rises to begin in the middle quarters of 2022

The Bank of Canada policy announcement was more hawkish as they announced they would stop the bond buying and expects a rate rises to begin in the middle quarters of 2022 (vs the second half of 2022).  

Also expects rate rises to begin in the middle quarters of 2022_
The USDCAD push back below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.23697 and 1.23618. Those levels will now be close risk levels for shorts (higher CAD).  Stay below is more bearish.

A swing area between 1.23097 and 1.23205 is the next downside target ahead of the low for October at 1.2287.

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Wed 27 Oct 2021 14:00:25 GMT

Bank of Canada full statement and Monetary Policy Report

Bank of Canada rate decision for October 2021 Below is the full statement from the October 2021 Bank of Canada rate decision: -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Bank of Canada full statement and Monetary Policy Report

Greg Michalowski
Wed 27 Oct 2021 14:00:25 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Canada rate decision for October 2021 Below is the full statement from the October 2021 Bank of Canada rate decision: -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 14:00:07 GMT

2

Bank of Canada prematurely ends bond buying program in surprise decision. Loonie jumps

Bank of Canada decision highlights October 27, 2021 The Bank of Canada ends its QE program prematurely, tapering its purchases to $0 per month. It was widely expected to taper to $1B/week from $2B/week. The BOC will now only reinvest its existing balance sheet.

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Bank of Canada prematurely ends bond buying program in surprise decision. Loonie jumps

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211007/bocs-macklem.jpg Adam Button
Wed 27 Oct 2021 14:00:07 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
2
Bank of Canada decision highlights October 27, 2021 The Bank of Canada ends its QE program prematurely, tapering its purchases to $0 per month. It was widely expected to taper to $1B/week from $2B/week. The BOC will now only reinvest its existing balance sheet.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:56:49 GMT

USDCAD trades near highest level since October 14 ahead of rate decision

Price above 100/200 hour moving averages Looking at the hourly chart above, the price based against its 100 hour moving average yesterday (currently at 1.2369) and moved above a shorter-term swing area between 1.2396 and 1.24089.  Those levels will be downside targets to get to and through along with the 200 hour moving average at 1.2362 (green line in the chart above) on CAD strength after the decision.

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USDCAD trades near highest level since October 14 ahead of rate decision

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/2021-10-27_6-53-56.jpg Greg Michalowski
Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:56:49 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Price above 100/200 hour moving averages Looking at the hourly chart above, the price based against its 100 hour moving average yesterday (currently at 1.2369) and moved above a shorter-term swing area between 1.2396 and 1.24089.  Those levels will be downside targets to get to and through along with the 200 hour moving average at 1.2362 (green line in the chart above) on CAD strength after the decision.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:49:21 GMT

Bank of Canada decision coming up next

USD/CAD at a two week high The Canadian dollar is struggling ahead of the BOC decision with USD/CAD up 30 pips to 1.2417. The 1.24 zone recently capped gains in the pair but it's been a choppy, risk averse day in FX with oil down 1.2%.

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Bank of Canada decision coming up next

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/usdcad-d.png Adam Button
Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:49:21 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
USD/CAD at a two week high The Canadian dollar is struggling ahead of the BOC decision with USD/CAD up 30 pips to 1.2417. The 1.24 zone recently capped gains in the pair but it's been a choppy, risk averse day in FX with oil down 1.2%.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:37:45 GMT

US stocks mixed in early trading

S&P and Dow clo are sharply lowersed at record levels yesterday A snapshot of the market currently shows:

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US stocks mixed in early trading

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/snag_267bf6c8.png Greg Michalowski
Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:37:45 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
S&P and Dow clo are sharply lowersed at record levels yesterday A snapshot of the market currently shows:
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:32:32 GMT

USDJPY back below MAs as gains from yesterday are erased today

Price is back below the 200/100 hour MAs The ups and downs continue in the USDJPY as the pair has erased the gains from yesterday.  IN the move higher yesterday, the price moved above and then based at the 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 113.849). The move higher did extend above the swing highs from Thursday and Friday near 114.203, but wandered lower (and below the level) into the close.

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USDJPY back below MAs as gains from yesterday are erased today

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/2021-10-27_6-05-18.jpg Greg Michalowski
Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:32:32 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Price is back below the 200/100 hour MAs The ups and downs continue in the USDJPY as the pair has erased the gains from yesterday.  IN the move higher yesterday, the price moved above and then based at the 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 113.849). The move higher did extend above the swing highs from Thursday and Friday near 114.203, but wandered lower (and below the level) into the close.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:23:56 GMT

Big squeeze underway in bonds

UK leads the way Lower debt issuance in the UK appears to have set off some kind of short squeeze. UK 30s are now down 15.5 bps to 1.163%. Gilt yields are also down 11 bps and through the key 1% level.

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Big squeeze underway in bonds

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/uk-30-year-yields.png Adam Button
Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:23:56 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
UK leads the way Lower debt issuance in the UK appears to have set off some kind of short squeeze. UK 30s are now down 15.5 bps to 1.163%. Gilt yields are also down 11 bps and through the key 1% level.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:15:39 GMT

EURUSD snaps higher toward the midpoint of the range this week

100/200 hour MAs and swing area tested at the highs. The spike higher has seen the price move back up toward the highs from yesterday (so the range is pretty much covered). 

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EURUSD snaps higher toward the midpoint of the range this week

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/2021-10-27_6-05-18.jpg Greg Michalowski
Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:15:39 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
100/200 hour MAs and swing area tested at the highs. The spike higher has seen the price move back up toward the highs from yesterday (so the range is pretty much covered). 
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:02:46 GMT

GBPUSD retraces some of the declines seen in the European session

The  low today stalled at the low from last week. The GBPUSD wandered sideways to up in the Asian session and in the process tested a cluster of Moving average resistance between the 200 hour MA and the 100 day MA (currently between 1.3773 and 1.37847. The high price stalled (at the time) against the 100 hour MA at 1.3778. Sellers leaned against it (and the higher 100 day MA at 1.37847) and the price rolled over to the downside.

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GBPUSD retraces some of the declines seen in the European session

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/2021-10-27_5-56-03.jpg Greg Michalowski
Wed 27 Oct 2021 13:02:46 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
The  low today stalled at the low from last week. The GBPUSD wandered sideways to up in the Asian session and in the process tested a cluster of Moving average resistance between the 200 hour MA and the 100 day MA (currently between 1.3773 and 1.37847. The high price stalled (at the time) against the 100 hour MA at 1.3778. Sellers leaned against it (and the higher 100 day MA at 1.37847) and the price rolled over to the downside.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:50:34 GMT

UK gilt yields fall as the budget is rolled out

10-year yields down 7.3 bps to 1.037% Sunak isn't exactly trimming spending with the OBR saying it will rise to 41.6% of GDP in 2026-27 from 39.8% before the pandemic but the market is clearly not phased as gilt yields sink.

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UK gilt yields fall as the budget is rolled out

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/us-10y-yields.png Adam Button
Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:50:34 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
10-year yields down 7.3 bps to 1.037% Sunak isn't exactly trimming spending with the OBR saying it will rise to 41.6% of GDP in 2026-27 from 39.8% before the pandemic but the market is clearly not phased as gilt yields sink.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:30:51 GMT

US September advance goods trade balance -$96.3 billion versus -$88.2 billion estimate

US advance goods trade balance for September 2021 - advance goods trade balance $-96.3 billion versus estimate of $-88.2 billion (record level) - exports came in at $142.2 billion which was $7 billion less than August exports Imports higher is good but the sharp decline in the exports is contractionary.

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US September advance goods trade balance -$96.3 billion versus -$88.2 billion estimate

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/advance-good-trade-balance.jpg Greg Michalowski
Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:30:51 GMT
Category: News
0
US advance goods trade balance for September 2021 - advance goods trade balance $-96.3 billion versus estimate of $-88.2 billion (record level) - exports came in at $142.2 billion which was $7 billion less than August exports Imports higher is good but the sharp decline in the exports is contractionary.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:30:22 GMT

US September wholesale inventories +1.1% vs +1.2% prior

US wholesale inventories data - Prior was +1.2% - Retail inventories ex autos +0.6% vs +0.6% prior We're going to see so much inventory building in the next few quarters as companies try to insulate themselves from supply chain shocks in the future.

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US September wholesale inventories +1.1% vs +1.2% prior

Adam Button
Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:30:22 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
US wholesale inventories data - Prior was +1.2% - Retail inventories ex autos +0.6% vs +0.6% prior We're going to see so much inventory building in the next few quarters as companies try to insulate themselves from supply chain shocks in the future.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:30:14 GMT

US September durable goods orders -0.4% vs -1.1% expected

US durable goods orders data Core orders are solid and the strong shipments numbers in September will lead to some last minute upward adjustments ahead of tomorrow's advance Q3 GDP report.

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US September durable goods orders -0.4% vs -1.1% expected

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/durable-goods-orders.png Adam Button
Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:30:14 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
US durable goods orders data Core orders are solid and the strong shipments numbers in September will lead to some last minute upward adjustments ahead of tomorrow's advance Q3 GDP report.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:22:03 GMT

The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA trading begins

USD is mixed As the North American session gets underway, the JPY is the strongest of the majors while the GBP is the weakest (followed closely by the NZD).  The USD is mixed with gains vs the GBP, CAD and NZD and declines vs the EUR, JPY, CHF and AUD.  The Bank of Canada is to announce a continuation of its bond purchases as it continues to pull back the stimulus from the pandemic. The BOC is expected to start tightening in 2022 with the market pricing in 4 hikes.  US stocks are mixed with modest changes in pre-market trading after a slew of earning after the close yesterday and this morning (Nasdaq is down, Dow is up). The S&P and Dow closed at record levels yesterday. It was the 57th record close for the S&P in 2021 and thee 38th record for the Dow.  Durable goods, trade balance, wholesale inventories (all at 830 AM ET) and weekly crude oil inventory data will be released today along with the BOC decision (at 10 AM ET). 

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The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA trading begins

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/2021-10-27_5-14-46.jpg Greg Michalowski
Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:22:03 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
USD is mixed As the North American session gets underway, the JPY is the strongest of the majors while the GBP is the weakest (followed closely by the NZD).  The USD is mixed with gains vs the GBP, CAD and NZD and declines vs the EUR, JPY, CHF and AUD.  The Bank of Canada is to announce a continuation of its bond purchases as it continues to pull back the stimulus from the pandemic. The BOC is expected to start tightening in 2022 with the market pricing in 4 hikes.  US stocks are mixed with modest changes in pre-market trading after a slew of earning after the close yesterday and this morning (Nasdaq is down, Dow is up). The S&P and Dow closed at record levels yesterday. It was the 57th record close for the S&P in 2021 and thee 38th record for the Dow.  Durable goods, trade balance, wholesale inventories (all at 830 AM ET) and weekly crude oil inventory data will be released today along with the BOC decision (at 10 AM ET). 
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:10:43 GMT

US durable goods and the Bank of Canada decision top the agenda

What's coming up The US calendar leads off today at the bottom of the hour with September durable goods orders, trade balance and wholesale inventories. Given the state of the market, I wouldn't expect those to be market movers but they're going to feed into Q4 forecasts and beyond.

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US durable goods and the Bank of Canada decision top the agenda

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211007/bocs-macklem.jpg Adam Button
Wed 27 Oct 2021 12:10:43 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
What's coming up The US calendar leads off today at the bottom of the hour with September durable goods orders, trade balance and wholesale inventories. Given the state of the market, I wouldn't expect those to be market movers but they're going to feed into Q4 forecasts and beyond.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 11:56:33 GMT

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen gains as long-end yields slump

Forex news from the European trading session - 27 October 2021 Headlines: Markets: - JPY leads, GBP lags on the day - European equities lower; S&P 500 futures flat

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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen gains as long-end yields slump

Justin Low
Wed 27 Oct 2021 11:56:33 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Forex news from the European trading session - 27 October 2021 Headlines: Markets: - JPY leads, GBP lags on the day - European equities lower; S&P 500 futures flat
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 11:30:05 GMT

Fitch downgrades yet another Chinese property developer

Kaisa Group downgraded to 'CCC+' on refinancing risk Kaisa is a familiar name when it comes to this as it was the first Chinese property developer to default on its dollar bond coupon back in 2015. The firm came back from the dead to return to the debt market in 2019 but is facing more troubles once again now.

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Fitch downgrades yet another Chinese property developer

Justin Low
Wed 27 Oct 2021 11:30:05 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Kaisa Group downgraded to 'CCC+' on refinancing risk Kaisa is a familiar name when it comes to this as it was the first Chinese property developer to default on its dollar bond coupon back in 2015. The firm came back from the dead to return to the debt market in 2019 but is facing more troubles once again now.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 11:10:10 GMT

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 22 October +0.3% vs -6.3% prior

Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 22 October 2021 -  -6.3% - Market index 645.1 vs 643.0 prior - Purchase index 275.6 vs 266.2 prior

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US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 22 October +0.3% vs -6.3% prior

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/27-10-2021-7-12-46-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 27 Oct 2021 11:10:10 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 22 October 2021 -  -6.3% - Market index 645.1 vs 643.0 prior - Purchase index 275.6 vs 266.2 prior
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 10:38:37 GMT

China talks tough on trade war with the US

China voices their side of the story after vice premier, Liu He, had a video call with US Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, yesterday The COVID-19 pandemic has been a convenient excuse for geopolitical tensions to be cast aside but as the world slowly returns to normal, expect more blows to be traded between US and China in the years ahead as relations sour further.

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China talks tough on trade war with the US

Justin Low
Wed 27 Oct 2021 10:38:37 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
China voices their side of the story after vice premier, Liu He, had a video call with US Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, yesterday The COVID-19 pandemic has been a convenient excuse for geopolitical tensions to be cast aside but as the world slowly returns to normal, expect more blows to be traded between US and China in the years ahead as relations sour further.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 09:32:32 GMT

Germany's Altmaier: Inflation will start to slow early next year

Remarks by German economy minister, Peter Altmaier Adding that even with no more lockdowns, rising inflation might have negative impact on the economy. Well, duh. Come next year, expect the headline narrative to shift further out to the middle of the year before a further kick towards 2H 2022.

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Germany's Altmaier: Inflation will start to slow early next year

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190402/kick-can.gif Justin Low
Wed 27 Oct 2021 09:32:32 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Remarks by German economy minister, Peter Altmaier Adding that even with no more lockdowns, rising inflation might have negative impact on the economy. Well, duh. Come next year, expect the headline narrative to shift further out to the middle of the year before a further kick towards 2H 2022.
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Wed 27 Oct 2021 09:14:01 GMT

Dollar, yen gains as long-end yields fall

FX moves reflective of a more defensive risk tone 10-year Treasury yields have fallen by over 2 bps to 1.596% on the day and that is seeing the yen gain further across the board but at the same time, major currencies are also seen slipping against the dollar and franc as well.

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Dollar, yen gains as long-end yields fall

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/27-10-2021-5-03-06-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 27 Oct 2021 09:14:01 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
0
FX moves reflective of a more defensive risk tone 10-year Treasury yields have fallen by over 2 bps to 1.596% on the day and that is seeing the yen gain further across the board but at the same time, major currencies are also seen slipping against the dollar and franc as well.
Asset 24 View More
Wed 27 Oct 2021 08:59:31 GMT

The week of crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum to set new highs?

Key levels to watch in the crypto market So, Elon Musk just tweeted out that he's personal crypto portfolio holds and, we've guessed it, you also want in on the action.

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The week of crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum to set new highs?

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/27-10-2021-4-56-58-pm.png CMS Prime
Wed 27 Oct 2021 08:59:31 GMT
Author: CMS Prime
Category: Education
0
Key levels to watch in the crypto market So, Elon Musk just tweeted out that he's personal crypto portfolio holds and, we've guessed it, you also want in on the action.
Asset 24 View More
Wed 27 Oct 2021 08:55:27 GMT

China developers said to propose offshore debt maturity extension, restructuring to regulators

Reuters reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter The report reveals some details of the meeting between Chinese property developers and the NDRC and SAFE yesterday, noting that some developers voiced intentions to extend their offshore bond maturities or undertake a debt restructuring.

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China developers said to propose offshore debt maturity extension, restructuring to regulators

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190104/china.png Justin Low
Wed 27 Oct 2021 08:55:27 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Reuters reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter The report reveals some details of the meeting between Chinese property developers and the NDRC and SAFE yesterday, noting that some developers voiced intentions to extend their offshore bond maturities or undertake a debt restructuring.
Asset 24 View More
Wed 27 Oct 2021 08:35:45 GMT

Oil struggles amid back and forth last couple of days

WTI down 1.7% to $83.17 on the day Price is trading around the lows for the day as oil is struggling to keep its recent upside form going, seeing some exhaustion around the $84 to $85 level.

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Oil struggles amid back and forth last couple of days

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211027/27-10-2021-4-24-19-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 27 Oct 2021 08:35:45 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
0
WTI down 1.7% to $83.17 on the day Price is trading around the lows for the day as oil is struggling to keep its recent upside form going, seeing some exhaustion around the $84 to $85 level.
Asset 24 View More

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