GMTAuthor: Justin Low

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Rebound in oil prices is helping to lift the loonie alongside improved risk sentiment


ForexLive
USD/CAD broke above the July high @ 1.3290 in overnight trading after oil prices slumped alongside risk assets. There's a hint of a rebound today with WTI up by 1.8% to $54.40 currently and that's helping to provide some relief for the loonie following yesterday's pressure.

The break of the 1.3290 level is a good platform to build on for buyers to retest the year's high @ 1.3386, close to the 76.4 retracement level where it stalled back in June. But the caveat here is that the break was a result of a shift in risk sentiment and that tends to be the most fickle-minded breaks you can get in markets.

For now, despite the rebound in oil, the loonie is failing to put up any modest gains against the dollar. The pair still only trades in a 37 pips range for the day hovering around 1.3290-00 levels for the most part so far.

The key to trading the pair will be to watch out for how US equities perform later in the day as I reckon that will be the key driver of risk sentiment in markets today (this will in turn affect oil prices as well). Should risk sentiment start to sour again, expect the pair to move back towards the highs and threaten a move towards the June high.

In my view, the upside move still looks more favourable unless price threatens a break below key near-term support levels i.e. 100 and 200-hour moving averages @ 1.3197 and 1.3210 respectively. However, be warned that room for further gains remain limited by the June highs. Only if that breaks will we see an extension towards 1.3500.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 09:31:31 GMT

Italy's Lega said to deny that Salvini is seeking changes in the budget

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Italy's Lega said to deny that Salvini is seeking changes in the budget


Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 09:31:31 GMT
Category: News
0


According to Reuters, citing an unnamed government source This All eyes will be on the European Commission's response that is to come later on in the day. That will be the determining factor for where markets will end up moving in the session ahead.

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Bitcoin skids towards $5000. Does it stop here?
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Wed 21 Nov 2018 09:30:03 GMT

UK October public sector net borrowing £8.0 billion vs £5.6 billion expected

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UK October public sector net borrowing £8.0 billion vs £5.6 billion expected


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-5-44-17-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 09:30:03 GMT
Category: News
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Latest data released by ONS - 21 November 2018 - £3.3 billion; revised to £2.0 billion - PSNB (ex-banks) £8.8 billion vs £6.1 billion expected ForexLive

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 09:02:17 GMT

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Istat cuts Italy 2018 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.4%

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Istat cuts Italy 2018 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.4%


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180604/italy.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 09:02:17 GMT
Category: News
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Italy's statistics bureau revises its growth projections for the country - Sees 2019 GDP growth forecast at 1.3% - Government's budget will support domestic demand in 2019 ForexLive

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:52:32 GMT

1

Cable buyers continue their struggle to break above the 100-hour moving average

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Cable buyers continue their struggle to break above the 100-hour moving average


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-4-35-04-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:52:32 GMT
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Near-term bias in GBP/USD remains more bearish ForexLive The pound continues to look for a break to the upside but it's just not coming yet. A leadership contest against Theresa May is starting to dissipate and that will only help to build a more bullish sentiment for the pound in the near-term but technicals show that traders are still treading with caution more than anything else.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:42:16 GMT

Merkel: Still don't know how to solve Spanish objections on Brexit deal

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Merkel: Still don't know how to solve Spanish objections on Brexit deal


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20160919/merkel-(2).jpg Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:42:16 GMT
Category: News
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Comments by German chancellor Angela Merkel - Believes that there will be a solution by Sunday - There is a difficult problem in the Brexit agreement - That is the issue of the Irish border ForexLive

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:40:42 GMT

Italy's Cabinet secretary suggests ban on shorting bank stocks

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Italy's Cabinet secretary suggests ban on shorting bank stocks


Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:40:42 GMT
Category: News
0
When you can't fight it, ban it ForexLive

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:16:06 GMT

European equities open: Italy leads as bank stocks jump

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European equities open: Italy leads as bank stocks jump


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-4-14-49-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:16:06 GMT
Category: News
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The surge in Italian bonds is helping financials ForexLive It all can be traced back to Salvini's comment . He was reported as saying that he's willing to make cuts to the amounts on citizens' income and that's a positive note in terms of trying to reconcile things with the European Commission.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:08:26 GMT

AUD/USD recovers on the day but sellers remain in control

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AUD/USD recovers on the day but sellers remain in control


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-3-49-06-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:08:26 GMT
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Price still trades below key resistance levels ForexLive The aussie may be among the top gainers on the day but so far, AUD/USD has failed to really break any technical levels to warrant a change in sentiment as of yet. The rebound today comes as risk sentiment in markets improves and for AUD/USD, support near 0.7200 has helped with that as well.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:00:22 GMT

Switzerland October M3 money supply +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y prior

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Switzerland October M3 money supply +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y prior


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-4-01-59-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 08:00:22 GMT
Category: News
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Latest data released by the SNB - 21 November 2018 - +2.3% ForexLive Slight delay in the release by the source. General gauge of broad money in the Swiss economy. Low-tier data, not something that will move markets in general. USD/CHF holds near flat levels on the day at 0.9950 currently while EUR/CHF is higher at 1.1333 as the euro benefits from the improved risk sentiment in markets while the swissie slips.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:44:48 GMT

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Trade ideas thread - European session 21 November 2018

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Trade ideas thread - European session 21 November 2018


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-3-37-03-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:44:48 GMT
Category: News
7
Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts ForexLive Expect headlines to pick up during the session as the European Commission will deliver their verdict on Italy's revised budget proposal. Meanwhile, Theresa May is headed to Brussels to meet with Juncker on Brexit later this evening so keep an eye on that as well.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:16:38 GMT

Italian bonds begin the day in a cheery mood

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Italian bonds begin the day in a cheery mood


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-3-11-04-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:16:38 GMT
Category: News
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Salvini's earlier comment helping to keep bonds bid as the session begins ForexLive Mind the gap, please. 10-year yields have opened by about 7.5 bps lower to start the day as investors are cheering the news earlier that . The report says that Salvini may be willing to lower the amounts spent on citizens' income and that's a major concession in terms of where we are at in budget talks right now.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:07:42 GMT

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Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European trading

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Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European trading


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-3-05-34-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:07:42 GMT
Category: News
8
Positive risk tones in early trades ForexLive This is very much keeping in touch with the rebound in Asian equities and positive start to the day seen in US equity futures. The improved risk sentiment seen across the equities space is helping to keep yen pairs bid and at the same time push the dollar lower as we begin the session.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:04:53 GMT

EUR/USD climbs back to 1.14 as dollar slips on improved risk sentiment

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EUR/USD climbs back to 1.14 as dollar slips on improved risk sentiment


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-2-57-02-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:04:53 GMT
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EUR/USD touches a high of 1.1401 on the day ForexLive It's a good sign for buyers as they managed to hold off further declines on the day as risk tones continue to improve across markets. Yen pairs in general are being bid and that's resulting in a move higher among the major currencies against the dollar as well.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:01:39 GMT

2

Oil's tumble driven by two key fundamental factors

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Oil's tumble driven by two key fundamental factors


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181120/screenshot-2018-11-20-at-21.00.35.png Giles Coghlan
Wed 21 Nov 2018 07:01:39 GMT
Category: News
2
OIl's tumbling and here is why Oil has been on a tumble recently and it is driven, amongst other things (or should I say tweets), by two fundamental drivers . The price is being hit both ways.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 06:51:34 GMT

Italy's Salvini said to possibly be open to budget revisions

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Italy's Salvini said to possibly be open to budget revisions


Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 06:51:34 GMT
Category: News
0
According to a report by La Stampa EUR/USD now at a session high of 1.1397 approaching the 1.1400 handle. EUR/GBP still in a narrow range at 0.8895. EUR/JPY also at a session high of 128.61 currently.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 06:43:03 GMT

Dollar, yen on the back foot ahead of European markets open

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Dollar, yen on the back foot ahead of European markets open


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-2-38-50-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 06:43:03 GMT
Category: News
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Slight dollar and yen weakness creeping in ahead of European trading ForexLive The major movers on the day so far have been the aussie and kiwi as both currencies are gaining decently as risk sentiment continues to recover on the day. Asian equities are recouping earlier losses while E-minis are trading near session highs up by about 0.4% currently.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 06:25:01 GMT

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Risk recovers some ground on the day but near-term hazards to keep gains in check

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Risk recovers some ground on the day but near-term hazards to keep gains in check


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-2-08-06-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 06:25:01 GMT
Category: News
3
E-minis are up by about 0.4% so far today At the start of October, the S&P 500 was up by about 10% on the year. Fast forward to today, the index is now down by just over 1%. It's been a painful two months for equities in general and the likelihood of any year-end rally to salvage that doesn't look promising.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 06:01:53 GMT

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.35% at 21,507.54

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Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.35% at 21,507.54


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-2-01-27-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 06:01:53 GMT
Category: News
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Tokyo's main index closes lower but well off the lows earlier today ForexLive In general, there's been a bit of an uplift in equities sentiment as E-minis are also trading higher now by about 0.4% - near the highs for the day. That's helping to lift risk sentiment in markets a little as we head into European trading.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 05:55:44 GMT

Italy's Tria says concerned about bond yields spread

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Italy's Tria says concerned about bond yields spread


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-1-52-12-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 05:55:44 GMT
Category: News
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Italy's finance minister Giovanni Tria speaks to Il Sole reporters Despite the pullback, it's enough to already send worries to European assets as the fear now is that if the European Commission and that Italian government continues to fail to find common ground on the budget, things will still get a whole lot worse for Italy's bond market.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 05:11:22 GMT

Economic data coming up in the European session

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Economic data coming up in the European session


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/21-11-2018-1-10-31-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 21 Nov 2018 05:11:22 GMT
Category: News
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A quiet mid-week calendar in terms of economic releases in Europe 0800 GMT - Switzerland October M3 money supply data Prior release can be found . A gauge of broad money in the Swiss economy. Low-tier data.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 04:52:29 GMT

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Small retrace for the AUD, NZD

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ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Small retrace for the AUD, NZD


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181121/audusd-wrap-21-november-2018-.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 21 Nov 2018 04:52:29 GMT
Category: News
0
Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Wednesday 21 November 2018 Emphasis on small, K? The Australian and New Zealand dollars had slumped in overnight trade (along with other currencies, equities, industrial commodities also) but found a small bid here in Asia today. USD/JPY was a gainer (small too), which prompted some of the shorts in yen crosses to take some in. EUR, GBP, CHF and CAD were all lacklustre though, not doing too much at all. So, an outperformance for the two down under currencies.

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 04:36:04 GMT

Japan data - All Industry Activity Index for Sept. -0.9% m/m (prior +0.4%)

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Japan data - All Industry Activity Index for Sept. -0.9% m/m (prior +0.4%)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 21 Nov 2018 04:36:04 GMT
Category: News
0
This index is a proxy for economic growth (GDP) that comes out each month. Which is handy as we only get GDO once a quarter. September was a dreadful month for Japan and the people, with many deaths due to natural disasters. Of course these weighed on economic activity also. October's GDP will bounce back, as will the Japanese people. 

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 04:23:54 GMT

More on the US Treasury saying China has failed to alter unfair trade practices

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More on the US Treasury saying China has failed to alter unfair trade practices


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 21 Nov 2018 04:23:54 GMT
Category: News
0
The earlier post is here with the gist of it: Lighthizer is keeping the pressure up! with a bit more detail: Reuters have a recap here

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Wed 21 Nov 2018 04:19:43 GMT

China tells market analysts to adhere to the party line in research

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China tells market analysts to adhere to the party line in research


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 21 Nov 2018 04:19:43 GMT
Category: News
0
Head of China's securities regulator met with representatives from more than 30 brokerages and fund firms in early November. - Told economists and analysts to take into account the interests of the Party and the country when publishing research Uh-huh

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