UK's Barclay: I think risk of a no-deal Brexit is under-priced

Author: Justin Low

1

Further comments by UK Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay

  • Says that a no-deal Brexit is not a 'stationary position'
ForexLive
I never liked politicians making comments about market perception and this one here is no exception. Rule of thumb: The market is always right and will do what it wants to do.

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Wed 17 Jul 2019 09:36:44 GMT

USD/CAD holds lower amid firmer loonie; Canadian CPI data in focus today

The Canadian dollar is holding firm on the day ahead of the CPI data release ForexLive The loonie has been one of the top performers over the past three months - only behind the yen - as the currency is largely benefiting off more positive economic data as well as a central bank that doesn't appear to be on the easing train just yet.

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USD/CAD holds lower amid firmer loonie; Canadian CPI data in focus today

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-5-22-23-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 09:36:44 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
0
The Canadian dollar is holding firm on the day ahead of the CPI data release ForexLive The loonie has been one of the top performers over the past three months - only behind the yen - as the currency is largely benefiting off more positive economic data as well as a central bank that doesn't appear to be on the easing train just yet.
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Cable triggers stops in move to fresh 2019 lows
Asset 41
Wed 17 Jul 2019 09:15:57 GMT

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UK's Barclay says that Barnier emphasised strong desire to avoid a no-deal Brexit

UK Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, speaks about his recent meeting with EU chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier - Says that there has been misleading information/reports on their meeting ForexLive

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UK's Barclay says that Barnier emphasised strong desire to avoid a no-deal Brexit

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190430/brexit-clock.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 09:15:57 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
1
UK Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, speaks about his recent meeting with EU chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier - Says that there has been misleading information/reports on their meeting ForexLive
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 09:00:05 GMT

Eurozone May construction output -0.3% vs -0.8% m/m prior

Latest data released by Eurostat - 17 July 2019 - -0.8%; revised to -1.7% - Construction output +2.0% y/y - Prior +3.9%; revised to +3.1% ForexLive Construction activity declined for a third straight month and the negative revision to the April reading makes this report look even softer. Both building and civil engineering contributed to the decline in the past two months but the bright spot is that relative to a year ago, conditions are still seen improving slightly.

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Eurozone May construction output -0.3% vs -0.8% m/m prior

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-5-05-46-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 09:00:05 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Latest data released by Eurostat - 17 July 2019 - -0.8%; revised to -1.7% - Construction output +2.0% y/y - Prior +3.9%; revised to +3.1% ForexLive Construction activity declined for a third straight month and the negative revision to the April reading makes this report look even softer. Both building and civil engineering contributed to the decline in the past two months but the bright spot is that relative to a year ago, conditions are still seen improving slightly.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 09:00:01 GMT

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Eurozone June final core CPI +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim

Latest data released by Eurostat - 17 July 2019 - Final CPI +1.3% vs +1.2% y/y prelim - CPI +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected - Prior +0.1% ForexLive Preliminary figures can be found . Headline annual inflation is adjusted a little higher but the key reading - core - is seen similar to initial estimates. This just reaffirms that inflationary pressures aren't falling off too fast just yet in the euro area but it isn't exactly firming as the ECB would want it to either.

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Eurozone June final core CPI +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-5-02-10-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 09:00:01 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
1
Latest data released by Eurostat - 17 July 2019 - Final CPI +1.3% vs +1.2% y/y prelim - CPI +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected - Prior +0.1% ForexLive Preliminary figures can be found . Headline annual inflation is adjusted a little higher but the key reading - core - is seen similar to initial estimates. This just reaffirms that inflationary pressures aren't falling off too fast just yet in the euro area but it isn't exactly firming as the ECB would want it to either.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 08:30:03 GMT

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UK June CPI 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected

Latest data released by ONS - 17 July 2019 - +0.3% - CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y expected - Prior +2.0% - Core CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y expected - Prior +1.7% ForexLive

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UK June CPI 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-4-35-10-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 08:30:03 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
3
Latest data released by ONS - 17 July 2019 - +0.3% - CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y expected - Prior +2.0% - Core CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y expected - Prior +1.7% ForexLive
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 08:18:22 GMT

1

BOE's Hauser reiterates that MPC has said it won't reverse QE before bank rate reaches around 1.50%

Comments by BOE executive director for markets, Andrew Hauser - Balance sheet likely to halve when QE is reversed - To shrink to around £275-375 billion from currently just over £600 billion ForexLive

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BOE's Hauser reiterates that MPC has said it won't reverse QE before bank rate reaches around 1.50%

Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 08:18:22 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
1
Comments by BOE executive director for markets, Andrew Hauser - Balance sheet likely to halve when QE is reversed - To shrink to around £275-375 billion from currently just over £600 billion ForexLive
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 08:04:15 GMT

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BOJ's Kuroda: There are various downside risks to the global economic outlook

Comments by BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda - Global economy is expanding moderately - Domestic demand in the Japanese economy is holding firm - Says BOJ will mull additional easing if price momentum is lost ForexLive

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BOJ's Kuroda: There are various downside risks to the global economic outlook

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190321/boj-kuroda.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 08:04:15 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
1
Comments by BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda - Global economy is expanding moderately - Domestic demand in the Japanese economy is holding firm - Says BOJ will mull additional easing if price momentum is lost ForexLive
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 08:02:43 GMT

Heads up: UK CPI data due at the bottom of the hour

We will be getting the release of the UK CPI data for June at 0830 GMT ForexLive Inflation pressures are once again expected to hold steady in the UK, similar to what we have seen in May . The issue here is this isn't really a focal point for the pound in the big picture as political woes and Brexit uncertainty continue to dominate the landscape.

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Heads up: UK CPI data due at the bottom of the hour

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-3-54-23-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 08:02:43 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
We will be getting the release of the UK CPI data for June at 0830 GMT ForexLive Inflation pressures are once again expected to hold steady in the UK, similar to what we have seen in May . The issue here is this isn't really a focal point for the pound in the big picture as political woes and Brexit uncertainty continue to dominate the landscape.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 07:45:00 GMT

1

NZD/USD inches higher but upside still limited by key daily resistance levels

NZD/USD moves to a session high of 0.6720 ForexLive The kiwi is a little bid on the day with NZD/USD pushing higher on the session but it's the same old story as it has been sine the start of the week. Price is once again flirting with a break above the 200-day MA (blue line) @ 0.6719 as buyers are looking to try and establish further upside momentum above current levels.

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NZD/USD inches higher but upside still limited by key daily resistance levels

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-3-36-43-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 07:45:00 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
1
NZD/USD moves to a session high of 0.6720 ForexLive The kiwi is a little bid on the day with NZD/USD pushing higher on the session but it's the same old story as it has been sine the start of the week. Price is once again flirting with a break above the 200-day MA (blue line) @ 0.6719 as buyers are looking to try and establish further upside momentum above current levels.
Asset 24 View More
Wed 17 Jul 2019 07:22:12 GMT

1

EUR/GBP continues march higher but runs closer to key resistance points

How much higher can EUR/GBP go? ForexLive The pair has been on a solid run since bottoming out around 0.8500 at the start of May and the pace of gains seen has been unrelenting. If things stay as they are, this week will see the euro post an unprecedented eleven successive weeks of gains against the pound.

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EUR/GBP continues march higher but runs closer to key resistance points

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-3-08-47-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 07:22:12 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
1
How much higher can EUR/GBP go? ForexLive The pair has been on a solid run since bottoming out around 0.8500 at the start of May and the pace of gains seen has been unrelenting. If things stay as they are, this week will see the euro post an unprecedented eleven successive weeks of gains against the pound.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 07:03:05 GMT

ECB's Coeure: Governing council is determined to act in case of adverse contingencies

Comments by ECB governing council member, Benoit Coeure - ECB stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate - Need to ensure inflation continues to move towards target ForexLive

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ECB's Coeure: Governing council is determined to act in case of adverse contingencies

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190423/ecb-coeure.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 07:03:05 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments by ECB governing council member, Benoit Coeure - ECB stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate - Need to ensure inflation continues to move towards target ForexLive
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:57:12 GMT

41

Cable falls below the 1.2400 handle as pound woes continue in the new day

Brand new day, same old story for the pound ForexLive Cable is making fresh lows for the year as price falls to a session low of 1.2383 as the pound holds weaker to start the European morning once again.

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Cable falls below the 1.2400 handle as pound woes continue in the new day

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-2-51-18-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:57:12 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
41
Brand new day, same old story for the pound ForexLive Cable is making fresh lows for the year as price falls to a session low of 1.2383 as the pound holds weaker to start the European morning once again.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:38:13 GMT

16

Trade ideas thread - European session 17 July 2019

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts Good day, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we get things going here in the European morning session. It's been a quiet one to start the day with markets a little bit more tepid and currencies little changed so far.

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Trade ideas thread - European session 17 July 2019

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-2-33-08-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:38:13 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
16
Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts Good day, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we get things going here in the European morning session. It's been a quiet one to start the day with markets a little bit more tepid and currencies little changed so far.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:31:44 GMT

5

Commerzbank still sees scope for upside bias in EUR/USD

This comes despite the pair slipping back towards 1.1200 in overnight trading ForexLive The firm's technical analyst, Karen Jones, argues that attention has now switched back towards the March and mid-June lows around 1.1176-81 and as these levels hold the pair from falling further, an upside bias will prevail.

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Commerzbank still sees scope for upside bias in EUR/USD

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-2-17-42-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:31:44 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
5
This comes despite the pair slipping back towards 1.1200 in overnight trading ForexLive The firm's technical analyst, Karen Jones, argues that attention has now switched back towards the March and mid-June lows around 1.1176-81 and as these levels hold the pair from falling further, an upside bias will prevail.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:09:02 GMT

Eurostoxx futures -0.1% in early European trading

Slightly softer tones observed in early trades - German DAX futures -0.1% - French CAC 40 futures -0.3% - UK FTSE futures -0.2% ForexLive This mainly reflects the mood in Asian trading, which mirrors the sentiment seen in US equities overnight. European stocks closed with modest gains yesterday but that came before the mood was tempered by .

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Eurostoxx futures -0.1% in early European trading

Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:09:02 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Slightly softer tones observed in early trades - German DAX futures -0.1% - French CAC 40 futures -0.3% - UK FTSE futures -0.2% ForexLive This mainly reflects the mood in Asian trading, which mirrors the sentiment seen in US equities overnight. European stocks closed with modest gains yesterday but that came before the mood was tempered by .
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:08:31 GMT

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.31% at 21,469.18

Tokyo's main index closes lower amid a softer mood in Asian equities Trump's remarks that he could impose more tariffs on China if he wanted to European equities look set to follow the mood here given gains posted yesterday before the turnaround in US stocks but overall risk sentiment remains more flat for the time being. US futures are near unchanged levels while Treasury yields are also little changed (a tad lower) as we begin the session.

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Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.31% at 21,469.18

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-2-01-40-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:08:31 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Tokyo's main index closes lower amid a softer mood in Asian equities Trump's remarks that he could impose more tariffs on China if he wanted to European equities look set to follow the mood here given gains posted yesterday before the turnaround in US stocks but overall risk sentiment remains more flat for the time being. US futures are near unchanged levels while Treasury yields are also little changed (a tad lower) as we begin the session.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:01:36 GMT

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Emerging currencies to benefit from Fed rate cut

Via Bloomberg  I came across this post on Bloomberg on the impact of the Fed rate cut on emerging currecnies. The EM currencies are set to further gain pace this year once the Federal Reserve and the ECB deliver rate cuts to help to boost an already strong 2019. 

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Emerging currencies to benefit from Fed rate cut

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190715/tom-coe-a7kd1kdxd-o-unsplash.jpg Giles Coghlan
Wed 17 Jul 2019 06:01:36 GMT
Category: News
1
Via Bloomberg  I came across this post on Bloomberg on the impact of the Fed rate cut on emerging currecnies. The EM currencies are set to further gain pace this year once the Federal Reserve and the ECB deliver rate cuts to help to boost an already strong 2019. 
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 05:55:42 GMT

3

JP Morgan favours long yen, franc in the current market environment

According to the firm's executive director, Laura Fitzsimmons ForexLive Arguing that "in this environment, trying to short those currencies (yen and franc) can be very dangerous" and that now isn't the time to be long on high-beta currencies i.e. yield currencies. Adding that the aussie and kiwi may be a bit of an exception in terms of recent performance but they don't view it as being sustainable.

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JP Morgan favours long yen, franc in the current market environment

Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 05:55:42 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
3
According to the firm's executive director, Laura Fitzsimmons ForexLive Arguing that "in this environment, trying to short those currencies (yen and franc) can be very dangerous" and that now isn't the time to be long on high-beta currencies i.e. yield currencies. Adding that the aussie and kiwi may be a bit of an exception in terms of recent performance but they don't view it as being sustainable.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 05:13:51 GMT

Dollar a wee bit softer ahead of European markets open

Major currencies are still holding narrow ranges on the day ForexLive It was a mixed session yesterday that in the bigger picture saw the pound and euro weaken against the dollar, with the former falling off rather heavily on the back of ongoing political and Brexit concerns.

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Dollar a wee bit softer ahead of European markets open

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-1-04-36-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 05:13:51 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Major currencies are still holding narrow ranges on the day ForexLive It was a mixed session yesterday that in the bigger picture saw the pound and euro weaken against the dollar, with the former falling off rather heavily on the back of ongoing political and Brexit concerns.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 05:01:23 GMT

Cable holds calmer to start the day, what levels to look out for?

GBP/USD is finding a base at the 1.2400 handle for now ForexLive But the chart certainly doesn't look pretty. The close yesterday sees price fall below the 76.4 retracement level @ 1.2439 but the only saving grace for buyers is that they managed to halt the decline from breaking below the 1.2400 handle at the close.

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Cable holds calmer to start the day, what levels to look out for?

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-1-00-38-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 05:01:23 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
0
GBP/USD is finding a base at the 1.2400 handle for now ForexLive But the chart certainly doesn't look pretty. The close yesterday sees price fall below the 76.4 retracement level @ 1.2439 but the only saving grace for buyers is that they managed to halt the decline from breaking below the 1.2400 handle at the close.
Asset 24 View More
Wed 17 Jul 2019 04:06:19 GMT

Economic data coming up in the European session

UK CPI data for the month of June in focus Equities and bonds are also looking a bit flat but let's see what markets have to offer in the coming hours as we navigate through limited economic data once again today.

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Economic data coming up in the European session

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/7-17-2019-1-00-10-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 17 Jul 2019 04:06:19 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
UK CPI data for the month of June in focus Equities and bonds are also looking a bit flat but let's see what markets have to offer in the coming hours as we navigate through limited economic data once again today.
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Wed 17 Jul 2019 03:49:35 GMT

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Japan / US trade deal?

Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 16 July 2019 Some minor movement for forex today in a session with little data nor news to act as a catalyst. USD/JPY had a range-bound day from early Tokyo highs above 108.30 to lows just under 108.15. There was some news (anonymous sources reported via Reuters) of a limited-scope trade deal being worked out between Japan and the US which is to be announced at the Trump-Abe summit in September in the US. To cover agriculture (Japan to buy more from US farms) and autos (US to buy more from Japan).As you can see from that range already discussed, a minor forex impact only.

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ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Japan / US trade deal?

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190527/abe-trump.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 17 Jul 2019 03:49:35 GMT
Category: News
0
Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 16 July 2019 Some minor movement for forex today in a session with little data nor news to act as a catalyst. USD/JPY had a range-bound day from early Tokyo highs above 108.30 to lows just under 108.15. There was some news (anonymous sources reported via Reuters) of a limited-scope trade deal being worked out between Japan and the US which is to be announced at the Trump-Abe summit in September in the US. To cover agriculture (Japan to buy more from US farms) and autos (US to buy more from Japan).As you can see from that range already discussed, a minor forex impact only.
Asset 24 View More
Wed 17 Jul 2019 03:30:32 GMT

1

Barclays expect a lower EUR/USD

Some commentary and forecasts from Barclays re USD and euro - The bank expect a more or less flat EUR/USD the next quarter ahead - To move towards 1.08 by Q2 2020, were previously looking for 1.06 More:

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Barclays expect a lower EUR/USD

Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 17 Jul 2019 03:30:32 GMT
Category: News
1
Some commentary and forecasts from Barclays re USD and euro - The bank expect a more or less flat EUR/USD the next quarter ahead - To move towards 1.08 by Q2 2020, were previously looking for 1.06 More:
Asset 24 View More
Wed 17 Jul 2019 03:06:14 GMT

1

The Australian employment report is due Thursday - this is a focus for the RBA

A preview of the labour market report for June due at 0130GMT on Thursday 18 July 2019  A rising unemployment rate would be a negative input for the AUD. Right now the market is of the opinion the RBA is leaning dovish but is on hold. Higher unemployment would be seen as shifting them even move dovish and likely to cut sooner. 

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The Australian employment report is due Thursday - this is a focus for the RBA

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190717/rba-lowe.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 17 Jul 2019 03:06:14 GMT
Category: News
1
A preview of the labour market report for June due at 0130GMT on Thursday 18 July 2019  A rising unemployment rate would be a negative input for the AUD. Right now the market is of the opinion the RBA is leaning dovish but is on hold. Higher unemployment would be seen as shifting them even move dovish and likely to cut sooner. 
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