GMTAuthor: Adam Button

5

High rates of fake volume are no surprise

Bitcoin
Bitwise Asset Management analyzed trading activity at 81 exchanges over four days in March and found that the volume of trading is much lower than reported.

Of the roughly $6 billion in reported daily volume during four days in March, the firm calculated that about $273 million was legitimate.

The company undertook the study with an application to launch a Bitcoin ETF so it has a conflict of interest. However another recent study from Crypto Integrity said 88% of all activity in February had been inflated.

The WSJ first reported on the study:
"On regulated exchanges such as Coinbase, Gemini, BitFlyer and Poloniex, trading followed certain patterns, according to the Bitwise report. Trading volume, for example, rose and fell at predictable times coinciding with working and sleeping hours. Smaller trades were more frequent than larger ones, and many were in round numbers. All those patterns reflect how human traders think and act."
Volume numbers are often faked by exchanges trying to appear larger than they are in order to attract new clients. One highlighted in the study was CoinBene with $480 million in reported daily volume in the first week of March. That compares to $27 million at Coinbase.


ForexLive

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Fri 22 Mar 2019 21:24:52 GMT

26

Mueller report concluded. Congress may learn contents this weekend

Report submitted to the Attorney General US Attorney General William Barr informed Congressional leaders that he's received the conclusions of Mueller's Russia investigation today. It's not clear if it's the full report or a "confidential report explaining the prosecution and declination decisions" he has reached.

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Mueller report concluded. Congress may learn contents this weekend


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/barr-letter.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 21:24:52 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
26


Report submitted to the Attorney General US Attorney General William Barr informed Congressional leaders that he's received the conclusions of Mueller's Russia investigation today. It's not clear if it's the full report or a "confidential report explaining the prosecution and declination decisions" he has reached.

Asset 24 View More
Six things are sparking market fears today
Asset 41
Fri 22 Mar 2019 21:19:50 GMT

3

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: US yield curve inverts, sparking fears

Forex news for North American trading on March 22, 2017: Markets: - S&P 500 down 54 points to 2800 - WTI crude down $1.14 to $58.84 - US 10-year yields down 10 bps to 2.44% Risk aversion hit hard on Friday as the US yield curve inverted. How far it inverted was with many claiming it had inverted on 3-month bills to 10-years early in the day when it hadn't yet. Still bond market was ripping right from the get-go and that spooked everything else.

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: US yield curve inverts, sparking fears


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/fx-wrap-march-22.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 21:19:50 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
3
Forex news for North American trading on March 22, 2017: Markets: - S&P 500 down 54 points to 2800 - WTI crude down $1.14 to $58.84 - US 10-year yields down 10 bps to 2.44% Risk aversion hit hard on Friday as the US yield curve inverted. How far it inverted was with many claiming it had inverted on 3-month bills to 10-years early in the day when it hadn't yet. Still bond market was ripping right from the get-go and that spooked everything else.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 21:13:45 GMT

1

US 3-month bill yield briefly fell below the 10-year note yield

3 month bill to 10-year yields The Fed itself has highlighted its preferred measure of yield curve inversion as 3-month bills to 10-year notes. The April 20 bill yield fell below the 10-year note yield for a minute or two at 1600 GMT (noon ET). There is talk that this was inverted all day but it only happened for a brief period. It still happened but only very briefly and narrowly.

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US 3-month bill yield briefly fell below the 10-year note yield


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_17-09-45.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 21:13:45 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
1
3 month bill to 10-year yields The Fed itself has highlighted its preferred measure of yield curve inversion as 3-month bills to 10-year notes. The April 20 bill yield fell below the 10-year note yield for a minute or two at 1600 GMT (noon ET). There is talk that this was inverted all day but it only happened for a brief period. It still happened but only very briefly and narrowly.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 20:19:53 GMT

27

Sharp Friday fall sends US stocks to weekly loss

S&P 500 closes at the lows On the week: Here's the daily chart of the S&P 500. Today looks bad but the chart isn't anything to worry about. At least not yet:

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Sharp Friday fall sends US stocks to weekly loss


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/spx-daily.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 20:19:53 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
27
S&P 500 closes at the lows On the week: Here's the daily chart of the S&P 500. Today looks bad but the chart isn't anything to worry about. At least not yet:

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 19:39:36 GMT

4

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Pound shorts head to the sidelines

Weekly forex futures non-commercial positioning data from the CFTC: The net position in the pound is the closest it has been to flat since June 2018. ForexLive

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CFTC Commitments of Traders: Pound shorts head to the sidelines


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_15-39-03.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 19:39:36 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
4
Weekly forex futures non-commercial positioning data from the CFTC: The net position in the pound is the closest it has been to flat since June 2018. ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 19:25:24 GMT

7

May says she might not have MV3 if there's a lack of support - letter

May letter to parliament May says she might not bring back her deal for a vote in parliament if there is no support for it. The comments were in a letter to lawmakers.

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May says she might not have MV3 if there's a lack of support - letter


Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 19:25:24 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
7
May letter to parliament May says she might not bring back her deal for a vote in parliament if there is no support for it. The comments were in a letter to lawmakers.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 19:19:26 GMT

4

Stephen Moore says he's more worried about deflation than inflation

More on Bloomberg TV How can you square deflation worries with 3-4% growth? Moore is in the news today because Trump said he will be nominated for a vacancy on the Fed board of governors.

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Stephen Moore says he's more worried about deflation than inflation


Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 19:19:26 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
4
More on Bloomberg TV How can you square deflation worries with 3-4% growth? Moore is in the news today because Trump said he will be nominated for a vacancy on the Fed board of governors.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 18:52:37 GMT

5

Fed's Bullard says expects Q1 weakness to be transitory

Comments from St Louis Fed president James Bullard The comments were in an interview with the WSJ. ForexLive

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Fed's Bullard says expects Q1 weakness to be transitory


Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 18:52:37 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
5
Comments from St Louis Fed president James Bullard The comments were in an interview with the WSJ. ForexLive

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Fri 22 Mar 2019 18:03:49 GMT

16

US posts largest monthly fiscal deficit on record

Deficit at more than $200 billion The February US federal budget deficit was $234.0 billion in February. That's worse than the $227B expected and the largest shortfall for any single month on record.

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US posts largest monthly fiscal deficit on record


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/us-monthly-budget-deficit.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 18:03:49 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
16
Deficit at more than $200 billion The February US federal budget deficit was $234.0 billion in February. That's worse than the $227B expected and the largest shortfall for any single month on record.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 18:03:21 GMT

US monthly budget statement for February -$234B vs -227B estimate

Largest monthly budget deficit on record in Febuary ForexLive

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US monthly budget statement for February -$234B vs -227B estimate


Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Mar 2019 18:03:21 GMT
Category: News
0
Largest monthly budget deficit on record in Febuary ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 17:36:26 GMT

15

Trump withdraws sanctions that were just announced on North Korea

Maybe I am missing something Pres Trump is tweeting that he is withdrawing additional sanctions on North Korea, that the US Treasury added earlier today. 

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Trump withdraws sanctions that were just announced on North Korea


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_10-33-02.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Mar 2019 17:36:26 GMT
Category: News
15
Maybe I am missing something Pres Trump is tweeting that he is withdrawing additional sanctions on North Korea, that the US Treasury added earlier today. 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 17:27:32 GMT

Goldman raises Q1 GDP to 0.7% from 0.4%

NY Fed moved lower this week. Atlanta Fed moved higher Goldman Sachs is out with their latest GDP tracker for Q1 growth. They now see Q1 growth at 0.7% vs 0.4%.

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Goldman raises Q1 GDP to 0.7% from 0.4%


Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Mar 2019 17:27:32 GMT
Category: News
0
NY Fed moved lower this week. Atlanta Fed moved higher Goldman Sachs is out with their latest GDP tracker for Q1 growth. They now see Q1 growth at 0.7% vs 0.4%.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 17:01:24 GMT

Baker Hughes oil rig count 824 versus 830 estimate

Total rig count 1016 versus 1026 last week - Oil rigs, 824 versus 830 estimate. That is also down from 833 last week - Gas rigs, 192 versus 193 last week - Total rigs, 1016 versus 1026 last week

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Baker Hughes oil rig count 824 versus 830 estimate


Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Mar 2019 17:01:24 GMT
Category: News
0
Total rig count 1016 versus 1026 last week - Oil rigs, 824 versus 830 estimate. That is also down from 833 last week - Gas rigs, 192 versus 193 last week - Total rigs, 1016 versus 1026 last week

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 16:48:40 GMT

Not a good day for European stocks today (or stocks in general)

Major indices get hammered The European stocks took a beating today.  The provisional closes are showing: For the week, apart from the Italian FTSE MIB which was near flat, the other indiices are down.

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Not a good day for European stocks today (or stocks in general)


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_9-44-47.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Mar 2019 16:48:40 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Major indices get hammered The European stocks took a beating today.  The provisional closes are showing: For the week, apart from the Italian FTSE MIB which was near flat, the other indiices are down.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 16:40:52 GMT

4

Gold is up but not running. It does keep a bullish bias though

WIth the meltdown today, gold up up but also up and down The Dow is down -400 points.  Brexit is turning closer to no-deal.  US/China is still up in the air and gold is up, but it is not running up. The spot price  is trading up about $3.60 at $1313. The high reached $1315.01. The low $1306.  

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Gold is up but not running. It does keep a bullish bias though


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_9-26-58.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Mar 2019 16:40:52 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
4
WIth the meltdown today, gold up up but also up and down The Dow is down -400 points.  Brexit is turning closer to no-deal.  US/China is still up in the air and gold is up, but it is not running up. The spot price  is trading up about $3.60 at $1313. The high reached $1315.01. The low $1306.  

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 16:20:13 GMT

35

Six things are sparking market fears today

A summary of all the worries 1) The yield curve inverting The US 10-year note yield hit a low of 2.416% with the 3-month bill at 2.410%. We're inverted out to anything shorter than that. An inversion of the yield curve is one of the strongest signs of a recession.

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Six things are sparking market fears today


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_12-06-10.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 16:20:13 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
35
A summary of all the worries 1) The yield curve inverting The US 10-year note yield hit a low of 2.416% with the 3-month bill at 2.410%. We're inverted out to anything shorter than that. An inversion of the yield curve is one of the strongest signs of a recession.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 16:01:00 GMT

2

S&P 500 drops below key level in rout

S&P 500 down 46 points The S&P 500 has taken out yesterday's low in a drop below a key level. The selling takes it through 2816 which was the Oct, Nov and Dec high and also capped a rally in Fed and March before finally breaking last week.

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S&P 500 drops below key level in rout


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_11-57-58.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 16:01:00 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Technical Analysis
2
S&P 500 down 46 points The S&P 500 has taken out yesterday's low in a drop below a key level. The selling takes it through 2816 which was the Oct, Nov and Dec high and also capped a rally in Fed and March before finally breaking last week.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:48:28 GMT

26

Trump cheerleader and Fed critic Stephen Moore tapped for Fed Board job

Trump has confirmed he will nominate Stephen Moore to Fed Board Trump has asked former campaign advisor and media mouthpiece Stephen Moore to accept a nomination to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors.

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Trump cheerleader and Fed critic Stephen Moore tapped for Fed Board job


Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:48:28 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
26
Trump has confirmed he will nominate Stephen Moore to Fed Board Trump has asked former campaign advisor and media mouthpiece Stephen Moore to accept a nomination to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:39:06 GMT

3

US 10 year yield down about 10 basis points. Nasdaq tests MA target.

Runs away from 50% and the low from January. The 10 yield is down over 10 basis points today as global debt traders worry about global slowdown. The German 10 year yield is also down sharply (around 7 bps) and trades below the 0.0% level (-0.27%).  Wow.

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US 10 year yield down about 10 basis points. Nasdaq tests MA target.


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_8-28-14.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:39:06 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
3
Runs away from 50% and the low from January. The 10 yield is down over 10 basis points today as global debt traders worry about global slowdown. The German 10 year yield is also down sharply (around 7 bps) and trades below the 0.0% level (-0.27%).  Wow.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:32:05 GMT

DUP deputy says nothing has changed as far as withdrawal agreement is concerned

Comments from the DUP deputy leader ForexLive

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DUP deputy says nothing has changed as far as withdrawal agreement is concerned


Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:32:05 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Comments from the DUP deputy leader ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:24:01 GMT

New York Fed GDP Nowcast falls to 1.3% from 1.4%

The latest tracking estimate from the New York Fed says ForexLive

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New York Fed GDP Nowcast falls to 1.3% from 1.4%


Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:24:01 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
The latest tracking estimate from the New York Fed says ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:15:13 GMT

2

EURUSD keeps the selling pressure on.

Moves away from 50% retracement In the earlier post, I noted the subdued corrective action in the EURUSD. The pair stayed below the 38.2% of the move down at 1.1326 and was also hanging below the 50% of the March trading range. 

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EURUSD keeps the selling pressure on.


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_8-13-16.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:15:13 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
2
Moves away from 50% retracement In the earlier post, I noted the subdued corrective action in the EURUSD. The pair stayed below the 38.2% of the move down at 1.1326 and was also hanging below the 50% of the March trading range. 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:04:21 GMT

2

USD/JPY falls below 110.00

USD/JPY down 90 pips It's getting ugly in markets once again with stocks at the lows. That's dropped USD/JPY down to 109.95. The yield curve inverting is no joke and it has been scared.

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USD/JPY falls below 110.00


Adam Button
Fri 22 Mar 2019 15:04:21 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Technical Analysis
2
USD/JPY down 90 pips It's getting ugly in markets once again with stocks at the lows. That's dropped USD/JPY down to 109.95. The yield curve inverting is no joke and it has been scared.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 22 Mar 2019 14:40:21 GMT

1

Topside resistance should put a stop to the GBPUSD rally

100 and 200 hour MA and 50% retracement The GBPUSD has moved up to some formidable topside resistance defined by the 100 hour and 200 hour moving averages at the 1.3204-104 area.  I would expect sellers to lean gives that area with stops on a momentum move above. The 50% of the move down from the March 5 is also in the area at 1.31912.

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Topside resistance should put a stop to the GBPUSD rally


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/2019-03-22_7-36-58.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Mar 2019 14:40:21 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
1
100 and 200 hour MA and 50% retracement The GBPUSD has moved up to some formidable topside resistance defined by the 100 hour and 200 hour moving averages at the 1.3204-104 area.  I would expect sellers to lean gives that area with stops on a momentum move above. The 50% of the move down from the March 5 is also in the area at 1.31912.

Asset 24 View More

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