USD/JPY nearing the top of its latest upside move?

Author: Justin Low

That's one argument an asset management firm in Tokyo is making

USD/JPY D1 20-01
Asset Management One's chief strategist, Takeru Ogihara, argues that USD/JPY may be nearing its peak as there's still a lack of evidence of a global economic recovery. Adding that the recent rally has been driven by risk-on sentiment rather than underlying fundamentals.

In the bigger picture, Ogihara notes that the pair is expected to behave in a relatively subdued manner - similar to last year - as market volatility remains low and global bond yields are expected to stay in tight ranges.

He adds that the dollar is likely to stay rangebound this year as the Fed is expected to keep monetary policy on hold until the end of the year.

The range they are seeing for USD/JPY until the end of June is between 106 to 112. That is not too different from the range that we saw last year - besides the January flash crash and a bit of a fall in August as global stocks also corrected.

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Mon 20 Jan 2020 06:10:11 GMT

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.18% at 24,083.51

A little push higher for Japanese stocks ahead of the BOJ decision tomorrow The Nikkei is mildly higher but the Hang Seng index is down by 0.7% as financial stocks prove to be a bit of a drag while the Shanghai Composite is up by 0.5%.

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Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.18% at 24,083.51

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200120/1-20-2020-2-09-44-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 20 Jan 2020 06:10:11 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
A little push higher for Japanese stocks ahead of the BOJ decision tomorrow The Nikkei is mildly higher but the Hang Seng index is down by 0.7% as financial stocks prove to be a bit of a drag while the Shanghai Composite is up by 0.5%.
Asset 24 View More
The Trump impeachment legal team and your trading. How are they related?
Asset 41
Mon 20 Jan 2020 06:00:44 GMT

Trade ideas thread - European session 20 January 2020

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts It's been a calmer start to the new week as traders and investors brace for a US holiday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. There is also little on the economic calendar in general today, so there isn't much incentive to chase early moves to start the week.

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Trade ideas thread - European session 20 January 2020

Justin Low
Mon 20 Jan 2020 06:00:44 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts It's been a calmer start to the new week as traders and investors brace for a US holiday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. There is also little on the economic calendar in general today, so there isn't much incentive to chase early moves to start the week.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 05:14:54 GMT

Australia's Frydenberg: Full economic impact of bushfires remains uncertain

Comments by Australian treasurer, Josh Frydenberg However, the central bank may have to be more tedious in gauging the longer-term impact of the bushfires. Inflation is expected to rise and housing/construction activity, employment is also a spot that is going to pick up strongly during the recovery period.

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Australia's Frydenberg: Full economic impact of bushfires remains uncertain

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200102/australia-kangaroo-fire.png Justin Low
Mon 20 Jan 2020 05:14:54 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Comments by Australian treasurer, Josh Frydenberg However, the central bank may have to be more tedious in gauging the longer-term impact of the bushfires. Inflation is expected to rise and housing/construction activity, employment is also a spot that is going to pick up strongly during the recovery period.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 05:00:43 GMT

Economic data coming up in the European session

Little on the economic calendar to start the new week a shutdown in Libyan exports over the weekend ForexLive Do be reminded that US markets are closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day, so expect trading conditions to be less enthusiastic amid the lack of direction and liquidity from Wall Street later on in the day.

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Economic data coming up in the European session

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200120/1-20-2020-1-00-59-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 20 Jan 2020 05:00:43 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Little on the economic calendar to start the new week a shutdown in Libyan exports over the weekend ForexLive Do be reminded that US markets are closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day, so expect trading conditions to be less enthusiastic amid the lack of direction and liquidity from Wall Street later on in the day.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 04:42:25 GMT

Ahead of the BOJ meeting outcome - poll on what to expect

Reuters polling of economists ahead of the BOJ is more focused on meeting further out than this one. Still, some of the comments reported are a decent guide to what is coming tomorrow:

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Ahead of the BOJ meeting outcome - poll on what to expect

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 04:42:25 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Reuters polling of economists ahead of the BOJ is more focused on meeting further out than this one. Still, some of the comments reported are a decent guide to what is coming tomorrow:
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 04:06:23 GMT

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Oil a mover, Libya output curtailed

Forex news for Asia trading Monday 20 January 2020  . Bullet points are here: Weekend news of impact centred on Libya Long story short the impact is to take out around 800k barrels a day from Libyan output (which is usually around 1.3 million barrels/day). CL contracts on Globex opened higher with a gap on the news, extended and barely retraced. A US holiday Monday has thinned out trader presence.

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ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Oil a mover, Libya output curtailed

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200120/gbp-wrap-20-january-2020.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 04:06:23 GMT
Category: News
0
Forex news for Asia trading Monday 20 January 2020  . Bullet points are here: Weekend news of impact centred on Libya Long story short the impact is to take out around 800k barrels a day from Libyan output (which is usually around 1.3 million barrels/day). CL contracts on Globex opened higher with a gap on the news, extended and barely retraced. A US holiday Monday has thinned out trader presence.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 03:30:51 GMT

UK PM Boris Johnson is not attending the World Economic Forum in Davos

Davos hosts the World Economic Forum, taking place from January 21 to 24. Davos is a ski resort in the Swiss Alps. Politicians and celebrities will be there, such as:

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UK PM Boris Johnson is not attending the World Economic Forum in Davos

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20191002/boris-johnson.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 03:30:51 GMT
Category: News
0
Davos hosts the World Economic Forum, taking place from January 21 to 24. Davos is a ski resort in the Swiss Alps. Politicians and celebrities will be there, such as:
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 03:06:58 GMT

European worries over China trade deal with the US. China says chill out.

The with an opinion piece headlined: Europe can benefit from China-US phase one trade deal Global Times GT open: But: Huh. Yeah … okay ... ForexLive

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European worries over China trade deal with the US. China says chill out.

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200120/calm-good.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 03:06:58 GMT
Category: News
0
The with an opinion piece headlined: Europe can benefit from China-US phase one trade deal Global Times GT open: But: Huh. Yeah … okay ... ForexLive
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 02:34:39 GMT

BOJ policy statement due Tuesday - preview

The Bank of Japan January 2020 meeting on monetary policy is today and tomorrow. Expectations for any change in policy are low, nothing is expected. Last month we had the Japanese government announce extra fiscal stimulus (around 120bn USD worth) as an offset to the tax (sales tax) hike in October last year. Even if Kuroda was inclined to further ease policy (he'd have to get even further into unconventional territory to do so) he would sit it out at this meeting to assess the impact of this latest fiscal effort.

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BOJ policy statement due Tuesday - preview

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190919/boj-kuroda.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 02:34:39 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The Bank of Japan January 2020 meeting on monetary policy is today and tomorrow. Expectations for any change in policy are low, nothing is expected. Last month we had the Japanese government announce extra fiscal stimulus (around 120bn USD worth) as an offset to the tax (sales tax) hike in October last year. Even if Kuroda was inclined to further ease policy (he'd have to get even further into unconventional territory to do so) he would sit it out at this meeting to assess the impact of this latest fiscal effort.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:54:34 GMT

3

Onshore yuan was set stronger again today by the PBOC (cheaper for China to by more stuff offshore)

Yep, the thing about a stronger currency is it makes the price of importing cheaper. Those countries exporting to China will benefit. Never mind counting how many soybeans are being shipped, this sharpish currency revaluation (ongoing since prior to the deal being signed) has positive implications for exporters (to China).

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Onshore yuan was set stronger again today by the PBOC (cheaper for China to by more stuff offshore)

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200120/usdcny-chart-china-20-january-2020.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:54:34 GMT
Category: Central Banks
3
Yep, the thing about a stronger currency is it makes the price of importing cheaper. Those countries exporting to China will benefit. Never mind counting how many soybeans are being shipped, this sharpish currency revaluation (ongoing since prior to the deal being signed) has positive implications for exporters (to China).
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:30:18 GMT

1

China loan prime rates set at 1 year 4.15% (expected 4.10%) & 5 year 4.80% (expected 4.80%)

The LPR is set once a month, based on a spread above the MLF rate. 5 year rate 4.80% as expected - expected 4.80%, prior 4.80%   For the 1 year rate 4.15% - a cut was expected 

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China loan prime rates set at 1 year 4.15% (expected 4.10%) & 5 year 4.80% (expected 4.80%)

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:30:18 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
The LPR is set once a month, based on a spread above the MLF rate. 5 year rate 4.80% as expected - expected 4.80%, prior 4.80%   For the 1 year rate 4.15% - a cut was expected 
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:24:21 GMT

Heads up for the China 1 and 5 year prime loan rates due at the bottom of the hour

The LPR is set once a month, based on a spread above the MLF rate. ForexLive

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Heads up for the China 1 and 5 year prime loan rates due at the bottom of the hour

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:24:21 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The LPR is set once a month, based on a spread above the MLF rate. ForexLive
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:16:41 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8664 (vs. Friday at 6.8878 )

People's Bank of China sets the onshore yuan stronger again, a chunky move for it at the setting. - strongest CNY since mid July last year  Injects 250bn yuan via 14-day RRs (ps long new year holiday coming up, PBOC providing cash liquidity) 

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8664 (vs. Friday at 6.8878 )

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:16:41 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China sets the onshore yuan stronger again, a chunky move for it at the setting. - strongest CNY since mid July last year  Injects 250bn yuan via 14-day RRs (ps long new year holiday coming up, PBOC providing cash liquidity) 
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:14:18 GMT

FX option expiries for Monday January 20 at the 10am NY cut

EUR/USD  USD/JPY  GBP/USD  AUD/USD  NZD/USD  0.6625 374m NZD ForexLive

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FX option expiries for Monday January 20 at the 10am NY cut

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 01:14:18 GMT
Category: Forex Orders
0
EUR/USD  USD/JPY  GBP/USD  AUD/USD  NZD/USD  0.6625 374m NZD ForexLive
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 00:32:21 GMT

5

While we await the yuan fixing - coronavirus reports from China show it ain't going away

So far the pneumonia outbreak causing disease does not appear to be as bad as the SARS virus a few years ago (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome killed almost 800 people).

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While we await the yuan fixing - coronavirus reports from China show it ain't going away

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 00:32:21 GMT
Category: News
5
So far the pneumonia outbreak causing disease does not appear to be as bad as the SARS virus a few years ago (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome killed almost 800 people).
Asset 24 View More
Mon 20 Jan 2020 00:01:17 GMT

UK data - Rightmove house prices January 2.3% m/m (prior -0.9%)

There will be little GBP impact from this upon release  +2.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y - prior -0.9% m/m and +0.8% y/y That +2.3% m/m is the biggest since the survey started in 2002.

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UK data - Rightmove house prices January 2.3% m/m (prior -0.9%)

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 20 Jan 2020 00:01:17 GMT
Category: News
0
There will be little GBP impact from this upon release  +2.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y - prior -0.9% m/m and +0.8% y/y That +2.3% m/m is the biggest since the survey started in 2002.
Asset 24 View More
Sun 19 Jan 2020 23:45:18 GMT

Here's a bull view for EUR/USD - under 1.11 is a “clear buying opportunity”

A view from Friday on the europ vs the US dollar Scotiabank (info via Bloomberg ) say they are bullish EU/USD, and that under 1.1100 is a clear buying opportunity,

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Here's a bull view for EUR/USD - under 1.11 is a “clear buying opportunity”

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200119/eurusd-chart-daily.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 19 Jan 2020 23:45:18 GMT
Category: News
0
A view from Friday on the europ vs the US dollar Scotiabank (info via Bloomberg ) say they are bullish EU/USD, and that under 1.1100 is a clear buying opportunity,
Asset 24 View More
Sun 19 Jan 2020 23:10:21 GMT

1

Oil trading has begun for the week - price is up (thanks Libya!)

Supply impacts from unrest in Libya: CL trading has begun for the week on Globex, despite the US holiday Monday. Price is up.  ForexLive

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Oil trading has begun for the week - price is up (thanks Libya!)

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 19 Jan 2020 23:10:21 GMT
Category: News
1
Supply impacts from unrest in Libya: CL trading has begun for the week on Globex, despite the US holiday Monday. Price is up.  ForexLive
Asset 24 View More
Sun 19 Jan 2020 22:20:32 GMT

"First of the new decade" central bank decision coming up this week - ECB, BOJ, BOC

Despite the 'first meeting of the new decade' hype that you are bound to hear these three are likely to keep policy on hold. - Bank of Japan meets today and tomorrow, decision announced at the meeting conclusion on Tuesday 21 January 2020 All of these 3 central banks will be looking at a stabilising global environment:

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"First of the new decade" central bank decision coming up this week - ECB, BOJ, BOC

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20191212/lagarde-dec-12-2019-photo.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 19 Jan 2020 22:20:32 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Despite the 'first meeting of the new decade' hype that you are bound to hear these three are likely to keep policy on hold. - Bank of Japan meets today and tomorrow, decision announced at the meeting conclusion on Tuesday 21 January 2020 All of these 3 central banks will be looking at a stabilising global environment:
Asset 24 View More
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:50:48 GMT

11

Trade ideas thread as the week kicks off - Monday 20 January 2020

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

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Trade ideas thread as the week kicks off - Monday 20 January 2020

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:50:48 GMT
Category: News
11
Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:
Asset 24 View More
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:42:22 GMT

Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today - China the focus (prime rate setting)

0001 GMT UK data - Rightmove house prices for 0110 GMT BOJ JGB purchase operation Bank of Japan Japanese Government Bond purchase operation 0 130 GMT we get the 1 and 5 year prime loan rates out of China.

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Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today - China the focus (prime rate setting)

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:42:22 GMT
Category: News
0
0001 GMT UK data - Rightmove house prices for 0110 GMT BOJ JGB purchase operation Bank of Japan Japanese Government Bond purchase operation 0 130 GMT we get the 1 and 5 year prime loan rates out of China.
Asset 24 View More
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:31:18 GMT

Monday 20 January 2020 is a US holiday - FX impact

Monday 20 January 2020 is Dr. Martin Luther King holiday in the US. Many financial markets are closed for the day. FX markets will be impacted with reduced liquidity during the Americas session. Canadain markets are open.

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Monday 20 January 2020 is a US holiday - FX impact

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:31:18 GMT
Category: News
0
Monday 20 January 2020 is Dr. Martin Luther King holiday in the US. Many financial markets are closed for the day. FX markets will be impacted with reduced liquidity during the Americas session. Canadain markets are open.
Asset 24 View More
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:18:59 GMT

2

Oil traders have an eye on developments in Libya over the weekend

Oil port blockades and pipeline shutdowns are the news out of Libya. Libya's National Oil Corp. confirmed the Libyan National Army militia had shut an export pipeline

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Oil traders have an eye on developments in Libya over the weekend

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:18:59 GMT
Category: News
2
Oil port blockades and pipeline shutdowns are the news out of Libya. Libya's National Oil Corp. confirmed the Libyan National Army militia had shut an export pipeline
Asset 24 View More
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:11:34 GMT

6

Brexit - UK chancellor Javid said the UK may break EU rules, criticism from UK industry

I posted earlier on comments to the Financial Times from UK chancellor Sajid Javid Along the lines that UK firms would have to "adjust" to a future where the UK no longer adhered to EU rules and regulations.

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Brexit - UK chancellor Javid said the UK may break EU rules, criticism from UK industry

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200119/nigel.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 19 Jan 2020 21:11:34 GMT
Category: News
6
I posted earlier on comments to the Financial Times from UK chancellor Sajid Javid Along the lines that UK firms would have to "adjust" to a future where the UK no longer adhered to EU rules and regulations.
Asset 24 View More

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