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5

Forex news for North American trading on December 3, 2020

It will be an early close for Forexlive this weekend as our technology staff takes over with some changes.  

Today the focus was on the US jobs report and although payrolls was much less than expectations at 210K vs 550 estimate, there was nevertheless some underlying strength.  Prior month revisions added 82K. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.5%. The participation rate saw a jump to 61.8% from 61.6% and the underemployment rate fell to 7.8% from 8.4%. 

Wages remain elevated although lower than expectations at 4.8% year on year vs 5.0% estimate.  

Although there is some weakness, the market seem to be more focused on what happened earlier this week when Fed Chair Powell pivoted from his long standing view that inflation was transitory, to one that it is now not transitory, but likely to persist further into 2022.  As a result, he is on board for a faster taper starting in December and seems to be open to tightenings earlier as well.  

Other Fed officials hopped on that bandwagon and it seems a fait accompli that tapering will indeed increase to at least $30 billion per meeting in December. Remember the current pace of bond buying is still at $105 billion. At a pace of $30 billion, the Fed will be finished tapering by the May 4th meeting, and open the door for the first tightening as soon as June.  

In reaction to the new view, rates moved higher in the short end this week, and declined in the longer end. The two year yield moved back up to 0.65% after trading as low as 0.441% on Tuesday. Meanwhile the 10 year yield moved to its lowest level since September 23 at 1.387% in trading today. The two – 10 year spread is trading below 80 basis points.

US stocks reacted unfavorably to the new tightening bias and is trading at session lows as London/European traders exit. The NASDAQ index is trading down -2.70% today, and has moved back below its 100 day moving average at 15081.67. The S&P index is also lower but only by -1.46%. The index remains above its hour 100 day moving average of 4491.12. European indices close lower after trading up over 1% earlier in the day.

In the forex market, the CHF is the strongest while the AUD is the weakest.

Forex news for North American trading on December 3, 2020_Crude oil what is trading at $67.25.  The low for the week reached $62.46 before rebounding to $69.18 today.

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Fri 3 Dec 2021 16:54:42 GMT

Major European indices close in the red. Give up gains of over 1%

German Dax -0.9%. France's CAC -0.5% For the week:

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Major European indices close in the red. Give up gains of over 1%


Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 16:54:42 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0


German Dax -0.9%. France's CAC -0.5% For the week:

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 16:23:25 GMT

3

Goldman Sachs expects a doubling of taper in December

… And first rate hike in June 2022 Going also expects the Fed to start to tighten in June 2022.  

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Goldman Sachs expects a doubling of taper in December


Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 16:23:25 GMT
Category: News
3
… And first rate hike in June 2022 Going also expects the Fed to start to tighten in June 2022.  

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 16:19:48 GMT

AUDUSD moves toward swing lows from September/October 2020

Swing lows come in at 0.6991 to 0.7005 The AUD is the weakest currencies on the day, and the pair is pushing to a new 2021 low and moves toward the swing lows from October in September 2020.  Those levels come in between 0.6991 and 0.7005. The low price just reached 0.7013. A move below that floor area would increase the bearish bias for the pair.

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AUDUSD moves toward swing lows from September/October 2020


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/snag_4af72d39.png Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 16:19:48 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Swing lows come in at 0.6991 to 0.7005 The AUD is the weakest currencies on the day, and the pair is pushing to a new 2021 low and moves toward the swing lows from October in September 2020.  Those levels come in between 0.6991 and 0.7005. The low price just reached 0.7013. A move below that floor area would increase the bearish bias for the pair.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:57:08 GMT

3

A look around the markets as traders react to sharply lower stocks

NASDAQ down over 2%. S&P down over 1%

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A look around the markets as traders react to sharply lower stocks


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_8-53-25.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:57:08 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
3
NASDAQ down over 2%. S&P down over 1%

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:50:22 GMT

4

More from Fed's Bullard: Wants to get soon to "live meetings" on rate hike possibility

Feds Bullard adds to his hawkish sentiment - unemployment rate will be be below 4% by Q1 2022 - expects upward revisions to November nonfarm payrolls. This is a very tight labor market

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More from Fed's Bullard: Wants to get soon to "live meetings" on rate hike possibility


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20151207/bullard-wrong.png Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:50:22 GMT
Category: Central Banks
4
Feds Bullard adds to his hawkish sentiment - unemployment rate will be be below 4% by Q1 2022 - expects upward revisions to November nonfarm payrolls. This is a very tight labor market

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:44:23 GMT

S&P index moved below its 50 day moving average at 4544.67

Index is now down -0.92% The index traded below the 50 day moving average both on Wednesday and Thursday but rallied after approaching the 100 day moving average of 4491.18 currently and finding dip buyers ahead of that key moving average. The price did move below the 100 day moving average back in September and again in October. A move below it would be more bearish from a technical perspective.

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S&P index moved below its 50 day moving average at 4544.67


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_8-44-30.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:44:23 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Index is now down -0.92% The index traded below the 50 day moving average both on Wednesday and Thursday but rallied after approaching the 100 day moving average of 4491.18 currently and finding dip buyers ahead of that key moving average. The price did move below the 100 day moving average back in September and again in October. A move below it would be more bearish from a technical perspective.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:41:29 GMT

EURUSD moved below its 200 hour moving average

Stay below is more bearish. The EURUSD has now cracked below its 200 hour moving average at 1.1277.  Stay below that moving average is more bearish. THe next target area comes between 1.1248 and 1.12633 (see red numbered circles).

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EURUSD moved below its 200 hour moving average


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_8-36-36aaaaggg.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:41:29 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Stay below is more bearish. The EURUSD has now cracked below its 200 hour moving average at 1.1277.  Stay below that moving average is more bearish. THe next target area comes between 1.1248 and 1.12633 (see red numbered circles).

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:34:58 GMT

2

USDCAD rebounds despite the strong jobs report. Technicals in play

200 hour moving average stalled the fall The USDCAD move down sharply off the initial report, but stalled right near its 200 hour moving average 1.27423. The low price reached 1.27428.

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USDCAD rebounds despite the strong jobs report. Technicals in play


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_8-33-47.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:34:58 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
2
200 hour moving average stalled the fall The USDCAD move down sharply off the initial report, but stalled right near its 200 hour moving average 1.27423. The low price reached 1.27428.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:19:26 GMT

1

US stocks move lower. The NASDAQ index leading the way

NASDAQ index approaches its 100 day moving average at the lows Looking at the daily chart, the index is back below its 50 day moving average at 15278.18 (risk for sellers looking for more downside now), and approached its 100 day moving average at 15083.34. 

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US stocks move lower. The NASDAQ index leading the way


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_8-15-52.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:19:26 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
1
NASDAQ index approaches its 100 day moving average at the lows Looking at the daily chart, the index is back below its 50 day moving average at 15278.18 (risk for sellers looking for more downside now), and approached its 100 day moving average at 15083.34. 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:00:30 GMT

1

US factory orders for October 1.0% versus 0.5% estimate

US factory orders for October 2021

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US factory orders for October 1.0% versus 0.5% estimate


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_8-12-53.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:00:30 GMT
Category: News
1
US factory orders for October 2021

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:00:15 GMT

5

ISM November services PMI index 69.1 versus 65.0 estimate

ISM services PMI index for November - prior month 66.7 - new orders 69.7 versus 64.0 estimate. Last month 69.7 - employment index 56.5 versus 52.2 estimate. Last month 51.6

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ISM November services PMI index 69.1 versus 65.0 estimate


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/snag_4ab565fd.png Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 15:00:15 GMT
Category: News
5
ISM services PMI index for November - prior month 66.7 - new orders 69.7 versus 64.0 estimate. Last month 69.7 - employment index 56.5 versus 52.2 estimate. Last month 51.6

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:56:34 GMT

6

Fed's Bullard: Danger is will get too much inflation

More from Fed's Bullard Stocks are moving lower with the NASDAQ index now down 1% on the day. The S&P and Dow industrial average are also lower now. The Dow is down -0.1%. The S&P index is down -0.24%

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Fed's Bullard: Danger is will get too much inflation


Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:56:34 GMT
Category: Central Banks
6
More from Fed's Bullard Stocks are moving lower with the NASDAQ index now down 1% on the day. The S&P and Dow industrial average are also lower now. The Dow is down -0.1%. The S&P index is down -0.24%

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:45:30 GMT

Markit PMI composite index for November 57.2 versus 56.5 preliminary

Preliminary estimate came in at 56.5. Services index comes in at 58.0 up from 57.0 in the flash estimate - Markit PMI composite 57.2 versus 56.5 preliminary

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Markit PMI composite index for November 57.2 versus 56.5 preliminary


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_7-48-46.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:45:30 GMT
Category: News
0
Preliminary estimate came in at 56.5. Services index comes in at 58.0 up from 57.0 in the flash estimate - Markit PMI composite 57.2 versus 56.5 preliminary

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:41:20 GMT

Major indices trading mixed in early US trading

NASDAQ lower. S&P and Dow modestly higher in other markets:

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Major indices trading mixed in early US trading


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_7-43-21.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:41:20 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
NASDAQ lower. S&P and Dow modestly higher in other markets:

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:29:34 GMT

USDJPY moves to a new session high

Low after jobs stalled near low for day and quickly reversed higher The USDJPY - like other pairs - initially saw dollars selling after the jobs report. The low price reached 112.98 which was just above the low from the Asian session at 112.954. The price rotated back higher and in the process extended back above the 100 hour moving average at 113.232. That moving average was broken (to the upside) in the early European session and re tested later in the morning session (held on the first test).  The 100 hour moving average is now a risk level for longs looking for more upside momentum in the pair. 

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USDJPY moves to a new session high


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_7-26-25.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:29:34 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Low after jobs stalled near low for day and quickly reversed higher The USDJPY - like other pairs - initially saw dollars selling after the jobs report. The low price reached 112.98 which was just above the low from the Asian session at 112.954. The price rotated back higher and in the process extended back above the 100 hour moving average at 113.232. That moving average was broken (to the upside) in the early European session and re tested later in the morning session (held on the first test).  The 100 hour moving average is now a risk level for longs looking for more upside momentum in the pair. 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:18:06 GMT

2

Fed's Bullard: Fed should remove monetary policy accommodation

Feds Bullard (hawk) is a voter next year Fed's Bullard is on the wires saying: Bullard is more of a hawk and will be a voting member next year. The Fed will meet it one more time in December and although the jobs report was weaker than expectations, the Fed chair and other members seem intent to start to tackle the threat of inflation and to remove taper quicker as a result. 

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Fed's Bullard: Fed should remove monetary policy accommodation


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200401/fed-bullard.png Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:18:06 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
Feds Bullard (hawk) is a voter next year Fed's Bullard is on the wires saying: Bullard is more of a hawk and will be a voting member next year. The Fed will meet it one more time in December and although the jobs report was weaker than expectations, the Fed chair and other members seem intent to start to tackle the threat of inflation and to remove taper quicker as a result. 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:07:11 GMT

3

U.S. Treasury currency report says no major trading partners manipulated exchange rates

U.S. Treasury currency report The U.S. Treasury currency report is out saying that: The USDCHF moved lower on the back of the headline jobs report, but has bounced back higher.

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U.S. Treasury currency report says no major trading partners manipulated exchange rates


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_7-09-21.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:07:11 GMT
Category: News
3
U.S. Treasury currency report The U.S. Treasury currency report is out saying that: The USDCHF moved lower on the back of the headline jobs report, but has bounced back higher.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:02:48 GMT

GBPUSD briefly breaks the higher 100 hour MA but backs off

GBPUSD remains below its 100/200 hour MAs this week The GBPUSD as traded up and down most of the trading week. The swing highs however, did stay below the higher 200 hour moving average (green line) currently at 1.33216.  Ultimately if the buyers are to take more control getting above the 100 hour moving average at 1.3303 AND the 200 hour moving average 1.33216 is needed. Absent that and the sellers are more in control.

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GBPUSD briefly breaks the higher 100 hour MA but backs off


Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 14:02:48 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
GBPUSD remains below its 100/200 hour MAs this week The GBPUSD as traded up and down most of the trading week. The swing highs however, did stay below the higher 200 hour moving average (green line) currently at 1.33216.  Ultimately if the buyers are to take more control getting above the 100 hour moving average at 1.3303 AND the 200 hour moving average 1.33216 is needed. Absent that and the sellers are more in control.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 13:54:18 GMT

2

EURUSD moves higher briefly but backs off after mixed jobs report

Job growth slow but unemployment rate falls and participation rate rises The EURUSD move higher briefly after the weaker job gains. The Fed pricing has a rate hike by June with two hikes prices in for 2022.  That is unchanged from before the jobs report. As mentioned, the Fed is now focused on inflation concerns. The weaker jobs number is still positive and the unemployment rate coming down is in the right direction as well. 

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EURUSD moves higher briefly but backs off after mixed jobs report


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/2021-12-03_6-49-51.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 13:54:18 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
2
Job growth slow but unemployment rate falls and participation rate rises The EURUSD move higher briefly after the weaker job gains. The Fed pricing has a rate hike by June with two hikes prices in for 2022.  That is unchanged from before the jobs report. As mentioned, the Fed is now focused on inflation concerns. The weaker jobs number is still positive and the unemployment rate coming down is in the right direction as well. 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 13:30:55 GMT

1

Canada November employment +153.7K vs +35.0K expected

Canadian jobs data for November 2021: This is a sensational report. USD/CAD has immediately fallen to 1.2775 from 1.2817 but mixed in with that is the impact of the US non-farm payrolls report.

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Canada November employment +153.7K vs +35.0K expected


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/canada-unemployment.jpg Adam Button
Fri 3 Dec 2021 13:30:55 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
1
Canadian jobs data for November 2021: This is a sensational report. USD/CAD has immediately fallen to 1.2775 from 1.2817 but mixed in with that is the impact of the US non-farm payrolls report.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 13:30:13 GMT

8

US November nonfarm payroll 210K vs 550K estimate.

US nonfarm payroll employment data for November 2021 Looking at the different sectors: Goods Producing 60K versus 108K last month Service jobs 175K versus 534K lat month (revised from 496K last month):

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US November nonfarm payroll 210K vs 550K estimate.


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/snag_4a69614b.png Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 13:30:13 GMT
Category: News
8
US nonfarm payroll employment data for November 2021 Looking at the different sectors: Goods Producing 60K versus 108K last month Service jobs 175K versus 534K lat month (revised from 496K last month):

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 13:08:40 GMT

Locked and loaded for another edition of jobs Friday

US and Canada jobs reports to be announced at 8:30 AM ET It's Unemployment (unenjoyment?) day in both the US and Canada. Traders are locked and loaded and all carbed/proteined/caffeined up for the fireworks.   

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Locked and loaded for another edition of jobs Friday


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/locked-and-loaded.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 13:08:40 GMT
Category: News
0
US and Canada jobs reports to be announced at 8:30 AM ET It's Unemployment (unenjoyment?) day in both the US and Canada. Traders are locked and loaded and all carbed/proteined/caffeined up for the fireworks.   

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 12:52:29 GMT

The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

The USD is higher ahead of the US jobs report The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA traders enter for the day.  The USD is mostly stronger (it is marginally lower vs the EUR and the CHF) vs the major currencies ahead of the US jobs report which will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  The largest gains for the USD have come vs the AUD and NZD.

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The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211203/snag_4a2d94e2.png Greg Michalowski
Fri 3 Dec 2021 12:52:29 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
The USD is higher ahead of the US jobs report The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA traders enter for the day.  The USD is mostly stronger (it is marginally lower vs the EUR and the CHF) vs the major currencies ahead of the US jobs report which will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  The largest gains for the USD have come vs the AUD and NZD.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 3 Dec 2021 12:38:37 GMT

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady ahead of payrolls

Forex news from the European trading session - 3 December 2021 Headlines: Markets: - CHF leads, AUD lags on the day - European equities mildly higher; S&P 500 futures flat

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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady ahead of payrolls


Justin Low
Fri 3 Dec 2021 12:38:37 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Forex news from the European trading session - 3 December 2021 Headlines: Markets: - CHF leads, AUD lags on the day - European equities mildly higher; S&P 500 futures flat

Asset 24 View More

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