Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 21 November 2019 

Discouraging news on the prospects for a US-China trade deal during the US session continued in the early hours of Asia. Negative reports built (see bullets above) which led to a gradual drip lower for forex risk currencies. Using AUD/JPY as the guide, it fell away, with USD/JPY dropping under 108.30 and AUD/USD under 0.6790. 

Some optimism returned with a Bloomberg report on 'cautious optimism' comments from China's Vice Premier and leader of the trade negotiating team Liu He - these were sourced from someone who heard him say it! (At a dinner speech, see the bullets above for more). 

Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 21 November 2019 Here

Otherwise, data and news flow was barely existent. EUR/USD traded up towards 1.1080 and has flat-lined since. Cable has added on around 10 points for the session while the pattern of trade for CAD and NZD has broadly mimicked that of AUD. 

The PBOC cut a big figure from the CNY mid-rate setting today (OK,  it was only 99 points not a whole big figure. If Yi Gang wants to get snarky in the comments, he can go right ahead).  Gold moved higher on the poor trade news but has since given it all back on the ore optimistic comments already referred to.


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Thu 21 Nov 2019 03:38:22 GMT

Here is more on the China economist still seeing likely phase one trade deal with the US this year

Zhang Yansheng, the principal researcher of the state-affiliated think tank China Centre for International Economic Exchanges expressed his bright view earlier:

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Here is more on the China economist still seeing likely phase one trade deal with the US this year


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 03:38:22 GMT
Category: News
0


Zhang Yansheng, the principal researcher of the state-affiliated think tank China Centre for International Economic Exchanges expressed his bright view earlier:

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Trade ideas thread - European session 19 November 2019
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Thu 21 Nov 2019 03:23:21 GMT

China's Premier Li Keqiang - will keep stable macro policies

China's premier Li  - says Chinese economy has maintained stable performance this year - says we are confident we will achieve the main social and economic targets this year Nothing on relations with the US, so far at least

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China's Premier Li Keqiang - will keep stable macro policies


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 03:23:21 GMT
Category: News
0
China's premier Li  - says Chinese economy has maintained stable performance this year - says we are confident we will achieve the main social and economic targets this year Nothing on relations with the US, so far at least

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 03:04:39 GMT

China economist says phase one trade deal likely this year if there is no disturbance

An economist at a Chinese State think tank - Reuters reporting  Also said: - global financial crisis is not far off if China and the US keep fighting 

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China economist says phase one trade deal likely this year if there is no disturbance


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 03:04:39 GMT
Category: News
0
An economist at a Chinese State think tank - Reuters reporting  Also said: - global financial crisis is not far off if China and the US keep fighting 

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 03:03:23 GMT

Here is more on China’s chief negotiator's 'cautious optimism' on a trade deal

The post is here, the news sent risk currencies on a pop higher, equity indexes up etc. If you'd like more, here is the Bloomberg story available now: ForexLive

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Here is more on China’s chief negotiator's 'cautious optimism' on a trade deal


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190214/liu-mnuchin-lighthizer.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 03:03:23 GMT
Category: News
0
The post is here, the news sent risk currencies on a pop higher, equity indexes up etc. If you'd like more, here is the Bloomberg story available now: ForexLive

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 02:37:18 GMT

1

AUD traders - Moody's downgrades Australian states' outlook to 'negative'

The local press here in Australia, Australian Financial Review with the  report: - Ratings agency Moody's has downgraded its outlook for state governments  Moody's further notes 

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AUD traders - Moody's downgrades Australian states' outlook to 'negative'


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 02:37:18 GMT
Category: News
1
The local press here in Australia, Australian Financial Review with the  report: - Ratings agency Moody's has downgraded its outlook for state governments  Moody's further notes 

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 02:23:02 GMT

4

China's head trade negotiator Liu "cautiously optimistic" about reaching a trade deal

China's Vice Premier and leader of the trade negotiating team Liu He Up until this the news on the trade deal has been universally dour.  Risk jumping on this comment (Bloomberg reported it - citing people attending a dinner at which Liu spoke).

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China's head trade negotiator Liu "cautiously optimistic" about reaching a trade deal


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20191121/china-phase-one-trade.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 02:23:02 GMT
Category: News
4
China's Vice Premier and leader of the trade negotiating team Liu He Up until this the news on the trade deal has been universally dour.  Risk jumping on this comment (Bloomberg reported it - citing people attending a dinner at which Liu spoke).

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:56:06 GMT

Morgan Stanley like the AUD, cite RBA dovishness diminishing

Via a Bloomberg report on comments from Hans Redeker, global head of currency strategy at Morgan Stanley RBA to reduce its dovishness as the housing market recovers

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Morgan Stanley like the AUD, cite RBA dovishness diminishing


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20191121/audyen-21-november-2019.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:56:06 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Via a Bloomberg report on comments from Hans Redeker, global head of currency strategy at Morgan Stanley RBA to reduce its dovishness as the housing market recovers

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:36:32 GMT

China's Vice President says China still faces severe external and internal challenges

Wang Qishan speaking, says the international order is under attack So far nothing specific from him on what appears to be diminishing prospects for a US-China trade deal.

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China's Vice President says China still faces severe external and internal challenges


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:36:32 GMT
Category: News
0
Wang Qishan speaking, says the international order is under attack So far nothing specific from him on what appears to be diminishing prospects for a US-China trade deal.

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:15:47 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0217 (vs. yesterday at 7.0118)

People's Bank of China cut nearly a big figure out the onshore yuan at the dauly setting  No OMOs today. ForexLive

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0217 (vs. yesterday at 7.0118)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:15:47 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China cut nearly a big figure out the onshore yuan at the dauly setting  No OMOs today. ForexLive

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:14:35 GMT

FX option expiries for Thursday November 21 at the 10am NY cut

EUR/USD -  1.0950 684m EUR -  1.1000 1.2bn -  1.1025 605m -  1.1035 669m -  1.1050 884m -  1.1090 1.2bn  USD/JPY

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FX option expiries for Thursday November 21 at the 10am NY cut


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:14:35 GMT
Category: Forex Orders
0
EUR/USD -  1.0950 684m EUR -  1.1000 1.2bn -  1.1025 605m -  1.1035 669m -  1.1050 884m -  1.1090 1.2bn  USD/JPY

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:05:35 GMT

AUD/JPY slipping. If you are wondering why ….

It does appear that a trade deal between the US and China any time soon is looking less likely   Just a few of the recent headlines ICYMI ….  Forex risk not liking it, AUD/yen for example. Slow droop though:

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AUD/JPY slipping. If you are wondering why ….


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20191121/audyen-chart-china-us.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 01:05:35 GMT
Category: News
0
It does appear that a trade deal between the US and China any time soon is looking less likely   Just a few of the recent headlines ICYMI ….  Forex risk not liking it, AUD/yen for example. Slow droop though:

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 00:34:15 GMT

Goldman Sachs expect the global economic growth slowdown to end soon

GS say growth to pick up in response to easier financial conditions and an end to the trade escalation. -  annual-average GDP growth is likely to rise only modestly from 3.1% in 2019 to 3.4% in 2020, A little more from the note:

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Goldman Sachs expect the global economic growth slowdown to end soon


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 00:34:15 GMT
Category: News
0
GS say growth to pick up in response to easier financial conditions and an end to the trade escalation. -  annual-average GDP growth is likely to rise only modestly from 3.1% in 2019 to 3.4% in 2020, A little more from the note:

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 00:18:02 GMT

Monetary Authority of Singapore  official says monetary policy remain appropriate

"At this point in time" - policy stance ahead will be based on how the economy evolves - core inflation range unchanged from estimates in October 

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Monetary Authority of Singapore  official says monetary policy remain appropriate


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 00:18:02 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
"At this point in time" - policy stance ahead will be based on how the economy evolves - core inflation range unchanged from estimates in October 

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 00:08:52 GMT

White House trade adviser Navarro says China is exploiting a loophole in solar tariffs

Navarro adding to the downward spiralling vibe on relations relations with China. Here's a buffet of headlines to enjoy, just the recent ones: And … why not?

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White House trade adviser Navarro says China is exploiting a loophole in solar tariffs


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190306/0-disperse.gif Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 00:08:52 GMT
Category: News
0
Navarro adding to the downward spiralling vibe on relations relations with China. Here's a buffet of headlines to enjoy, just the recent ones: And … why not?

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Thu 21 Nov 2019 00:04:11 GMT

Singapore Q3 GDP beats estimates: 2.1% q/q annualised vs 1.8% expected

Economic growth data from SG for the third quarter -  2.1% q/q annualised vs 1.8% expected -  +0.5 % y/y (0.4% expected) - MIT narrows 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% to 1% (previous forecast zero to +1%)

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Singapore Q3 GDP beats estimates: 2.1% q/q annualised vs 1.8% expected


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 21 Nov 2019 00:04:11 GMT
Category: News
0
Economic growth data from SG for the third quarter -  2.1% q/q annualised vs 1.8% expected -  +0.5 % y/y (0.4% expected) - MIT narrows 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% to 1% (previous forecast zero to +1%)

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Wed 20 Nov 2019 23:56:01 GMT

More headlines that Trump is expected to sign the Hong Kong support bill

Bloomberg cited a 'person familiar' earlier. Now its Reuters turn, also citing a person familiar (maybe its the same one?) - That President Trump will sign the bill AFAIK there is no point him trying to veto it given the majority it passed with in the House and Senate. 

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More headlines that Trump is expected to sign the Hong Kong support bill


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20191120/xi.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 20 Nov 2019 23:56:01 GMT
Category: News
0
Bloomberg cited a 'person familiar' earlier. Now its Reuters turn, also citing a person familiar (maybe its the same one?) - That President Trump will sign the bill AFAIK there is no point him trying to veto it given the majority it passed with in the House and Senate. 

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Wed 20 Nov 2019 23:51:22 GMT

More central bank minutes to come - today its the ECB's turn

Minutes of the European Central Bank's October policy meeting are due for release 21 November 2019 at 1230GMT While the FOMC minutes out Wednesday indicated a move towards harmony amongst members the ECB minutes may well show the opposite.

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More central bank minutes to come - today its the ECB's turn


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20150725/lagarde.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 20 Nov 2019 23:51:22 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Minutes of the European Central Bank's October policy meeting are due for release 21 November 2019 at 1230GMT While the FOMC minutes out Wednesday indicated a move towards harmony amongst members the ECB minutes may well show the opposite.

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Wed 20 Nov 2019 23:14:03 GMT

Bank of Japan “stealth tapering”?

Its been 40 days since the Bank of Japan has made a big purchase of any domestic stocks. Says the Financial Times:  Sounds like tapering back of the scheme to me. Maybe that is not such a bad thing (BTFDerrs, I'm sry)

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Bank of Japan “stealth tapering”?


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 20 Nov 2019 23:14:03 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Its been 40 days since the Bank of Japan has made a big purchase of any domestic stocks. Says the Financial Times:  Sounds like tapering back of the scheme to me. Maybe that is not such a bad thing (BTFDerrs, I'm sry)

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Wed 20 Nov 2019 23:06:53 GMT

German finance ministry monthly report - notes weakening global economic momentum

Some positives noted in the report, but also warns of the persistent negatives.  I posted this a little earlier on the outlook for German spending: ForexLive

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German finance ministry monthly report - notes weakening global economic momentum


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 20 Nov 2019 23:06:53 GMT
Category: News
0
Some positives noted in the report, but also warns of the persistent negatives.  I posted this a little earlier on the outlook for German spending: ForexLive

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Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:57:35 GMT

FOMC minutes response - likely on pause unless a significant downside risk emerges

A note via CIBC on the Fed minutes released Wednesday in the. Comments from CIBC (in brief and nothing surprising): ForexLive

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FOMC minutes response - likely on pause unless a significant downside risk emerges


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190906/powell.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:57:35 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
A note via CIBC on the Fed minutes released Wednesday in the. Comments from CIBC (in brief and nothing surprising): ForexLive

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Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:54:06 GMT

Japan (extra) fiscal stimulus - package around 10 tln yen

The Japanese press (Nikkei) say that administration officials have agreed to  a supplementary budget. - Extra spending of 10 tln yen Central banks around the world have been urging government spending. BOJ getting its way?

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Japan (extra) fiscal stimulus - package around 10 tln yen


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:54:06 GMT
Category: News
0
The Japanese press (Nikkei) say that administration officials have agreed to  a supplementary budget. - Extra spending of 10 tln yen Central banks around the world have been urging government spending. BOJ getting its way?

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Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:47:48 GMT

Here is a long EUR recommendation based on an expectation of German fiscal stimulus

Natwest like the euro in 2020 with an out of consensus view that Germany will fiscal stimulus - Most think they weill not - NW says yes, they will And, if so:

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Here is a long EUR recommendation based on an expectation of German fiscal stimulus


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:47:48 GMT
Category: News
0
Natwest like the euro in 2020 with an out of consensus view that Germany will fiscal stimulus - Most think they weill not - NW says yes, they will And, if so:

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Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:26:48 GMT

The verbatim of Trump's latest comments is another sign the deal is falling apart

Trump spoke in a Q&A at Apple headquarters Keep in mind that Trump said earlier in his comments that they were considering exempting Apple from tariffs. To me, that alone says he is already a couple steps along in the process of adding tariffs, or at least strongly considering it.

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The verbatim of Trump's latest comments is another sign the deal is falling apart


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20191120/2019-11-20_17-21-09.png Adam Button
Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:26:48 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Trump spoke in a Q&A at Apple headquarters Keep in mind that Trump said earlier in his comments that they were considering exempting Apple from tariffs. To me, that alone says he is already a couple steps along in the process of adding tariffs, or at least strongly considering it.

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Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:09:38 GMT

3

US House of Representatives appear poised to approve bill supporting Hong Kong protestors

It appears the numbers are there for the support bill to be approved See my comments from yesterday - this is sure to upset China. The bill, once approved by the House (spoiler - it will be) then heads off to Trump's desk for approval … or veto.

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US House of Representatives appear poised to approve bill supporting Hong Kong protestors


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 20 Nov 2019 22:09:38 GMT
Category: News
3
It appears the numbers are there for the support bill to be approved See my comments from yesterday - this is sure to upset China. The bill, once approved by the House (spoiler - it will be) then heads off to Trump's desk for approval … or veto.

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