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Author: Justin Low

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts

Some relative comfort for risk trades but sentiment remains rather fragile as the market continues to digest the wall of worries posed by Evergrande/China.

The Fed will steal the focus in the day ahead and any hawkish signals on tapering could drown out any bounce in risk (equities in particular) towards the latter stages of the week.

The dollar smile theory is very much in play and the greenback is smiling rather widely at the moment considering the market anxiety on one end and the Fed likely to hint at tapering later today at the other end.

I don't expect much to follow in European trading as the market will likely just settle into a bit of slight comfort but be wary of selling at the open in US equities, with the trend from last week having continued yesterday.

That might keep things a little more anxious ahead of the Fed later.

What are your views on the market right now? Share your thoughts/ideas with the ForexLive community here.

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Wed 22 Sep 2021 05:44:47 GMT

US futures pull higher as risk finds some comfort

Well, at least for the time being Risk trades are able to breathe in a sigh of relief as we get towards European trading, with Chinese equities recovering losses further towards the tail-end of the session.

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US futures pull higher as risk finds some comfort


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/22-9-2021-1-38-50-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 22 Sep 2021 05:44:47 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0


Well, at least for the time being Risk trades are able to breathe in a sigh of relief as we get towards European trading, with Chinese equities recovering losses further towards the tail-end of the session.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 05:36:09 GMT

Fed focus to dim China worries but plenty more twists and turns still to come

Expect more testing times to follow with regards to China The market looks to be breathing a sigh of relief on the day as the Evergrande episode has not gotten much worse this week, as the company is said to make coupon payments for its onshore bonds due tomorrow.

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Fed focus to dim China worries but plenty more twists and turns still to come


Justin Low
Wed 22 Sep 2021 05:36:09 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Expect more testing times to follow with regards to China The market looks to be breathing a sigh of relief on the day as the Evergrande episode has not gotten much worse this week, as the company is said to make coupon payments for its onshore bonds due tomorrow.

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Wed 22 Sep 2021 04:43:37 GMT

Economic data coming up in the European session

A rather empty calendar day as the focus shifts towards the Fed Evergrande worries are still at play but we may see the market put a pin on that as the focus and attention today shifts towards the FOMC meeting later.

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Economic data coming up in the European session


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190320/fed-fomc.png Justin Low
Wed 22 Sep 2021 04:43:37 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
A rather empty calendar day as the focus shifts towards the Fed Evergrande worries are still at play but we may see the market put a pin on that as the focus and attention today shifts towards the FOMC meeting later.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 04:26:19 GMT

Perceived calm ahead of European trading

Light changes across asset classes so far today I'd argue that if anything else, the market is looking indecisive rather than emanating calmer and steadier tones as we look towards European trading.

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Perceived calm ahead of European trading


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/22-9-2021-12-14-41-pm.png Justin Low
Wed 22 Sep 2021 04:26:19 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Light changes across asset classes so far today I'd argue that if anything else, the market is looking indecisive rather than emanating calmer and steadier tones as we look towards European trading.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 03:42:08 GMT

Bloomberg update on the global semiconductor chip shortage - getting worse

Bloomberg say wait times stretched even further in August, up by 6 days to 21 weeks.  Chip lead time is the gap between ordering a semiconductor and taking delivery. That's what rose in August, from already record-long wait times (Bloomberg citing data from  since the firm began tracking the data in 2017).

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Bloomberg update on the global semiconductor chip shortage - getting worse


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/honda.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 03:42:08 GMT
Category: News
0
Bloomberg say wait times stretched even further in August, up by 6 days to 21 weeks.  Chip lead time is the gap between ordering a semiconductor and taking delivery. That's what rose in August, from already record-long wait times (Bloomberg citing data from  since the firm began tracking the data in 2017).

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 03:25:46 GMT

Bank of Japan policy statement recap - bleaker view

The main headlines re the Bank of Japan statement and assessment can be found here: if you'd like a little more, noting: Reuters have a recap piece up The yen lost a little ground through the course of the session, mainly on Evergrande developments prior to the BOJ statement. 

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Bank of Japan policy statement recap - bleaker view


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/usdyen-chart-boj.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 03:25:46 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The main headlines re the Bank of Japan statement and assessment can be found here: if you'd like a little more, noting: Reuters have a recap piece up The yen lost a little ground through the course of the session, mainly on Evergrande developments prior to the BOJ statement. 

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:57:31 GMT

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Evergrande in the driver’s seat

Forex news for Asia trading on Wednesday 22 September 2021 If you are scanning over your charts those moves you see are down to Evergrande developments. The forex session began very slowly with a minor drift lower for yen crosses as USD/JPY slipped under 109.20 and other fx sagged sightly against the dollar.

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ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Evergrande in the driver’s seat


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/aud-chart-wrap.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:57:31 GMT
Category: News
0
Forex news for Asia trading on Wednesday 22 September 2021 If you are scanning over your charts those moves you see are down to Evergrande developments. The forex session began very slowly with a minor drift lower for yen crosses as USD/JPY slipped under 109.20 and other fx sagged sightly against the dollar.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:48:09 GMT

Bank of Japan leaves its policy settings unchanged, as expected

Bank of Japan statement out now following the monetary policy meeting Its main policy planks are unchanged: More:

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Bank of Japan leaves its policy settings unchanged, as expected


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:48:09 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Japan statement out now following the monetary policy meeting Its main policy planks are unchanged: More:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:27:32 GMT

Another China property group suspends a bond trading

This the latest out of China  Pretty soon we'll be asking an inquiry into bat labs with all this contagion 

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Another China property group suspends a bond trading


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/china-bond.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:27:32 GMT
Category: News
0
This the latest out of China  Pretty soon we'll be asking an inquiry into bat labs with all this contagion 

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Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:06:13 GMT

RBA's Bullock says risks to financial stability from housing could be growing

Reserve Bank of Australia - Speech by Michele Bullock, Assistant Governor (Financial System) - the topic is  Full text:

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RBA's Bullock says risks to financial stability from housing could be growing


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190818/disperse.gif Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:06:13 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Reserve Bank of Australia - Speech by Michele Bullock, Assistant Governor (Financial System) - the topic is  Full text:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:04:59 GMT

The penny is dropping - Evergrande foreign bondholders may carry the cost

The good news on the (local China) coupon payment sent 'risk trades up:    Evergrande main unit says will make payment on September 23 Then I did caution on getting to happy about this, it was one payment out of a multitude:

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The penny is dropping - Evergrande foreign bondholders may carry the cost


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/aud-evergrande-coupon-2.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:04:59 GMT
Category: News
0
The good news on the (local China) coupon payment sent 'risk trades up:    Evergrande main unit says will make payment on September 23 Then I did caution on getting to happy about this, it was one payment out of a multitude:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:39:31 GMT

China piling on the good news (but is it?)

This caused risk trades to jump:  Evergrande main unit says will make payment on September 23 Then the People's Bank of China got on board with a big injection of funds in open market operations:

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China piling on the good news (but is it?)


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/evergrande-bonds-due.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:39:31 GMT
Category: News
0
This caused risk trades to jump:  Evergrande main unit says will make payment on September 23 Then the People's Bank of China got on board with a big injection of funds in open market operations:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:30:05 GMT

PBOC sets loan prime rates for September unchanged

People's Bank of China setting its one-year and five-year loan prime rates. These have remained unchanged for 17 months. Market expectations were for no change

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PBOC sets loan prime rates for September unchanged


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:30:05 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China setting its one-year and five-year loan prime rates. These have remained unchanged for 17 months. Market expectations were for no change

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:16:38 GMT

3

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4693 (vs. estimate at 6.4637)

People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.     - USD/CNY is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4693 (vs. estimate at 6.4637)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:16:38 GMT
Category: Central Banks
3
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.     - USD/CNY is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:13:21 GMT

1

Evergrande main unit says will make payment on September 23

China Evergrande main unit Hengda Real Estate will make coupon payments for onshore bonds due tomorrow Risk spikes. AUD/USD:

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Evergrande main unit says will make payment on September 23


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/aud-evergrande-coupon.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:13:21 GMT
Category: News
1
China Evergrande main unit Hengda Real Estate will make coupon payments for onshore bonds due tomorrow Risk spikes. AUD/USD:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:05:23 GMT

RBA Deputy Governor Debelle addressing Evergrande issues

I posted the live link to Debelle here a few moments ago: Debelle says the Bank is spending a fair bit of its time assessing Evergrande. He expects Chinese authorities might well allow a limited default to occur, their 'tolerance' for a default is higher than in previous years as long as the consequences are limited.  Sounds like the 'Lehman moment' is not going to be an issue according to Debelle. Contained (famous last words?) 

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RBA Deputy Governor Debelle addressing Evergrande issues


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 01:05:23 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
I posted the live link to Debelle here a few moments ago: Debelle says the Bank is spending a fair bit of its time assessing Evergrande. He expects Chinese authorities might well allow a limited default to occur, their 'tolerance' for a default is higher than in previous years as long as the consequences are limited.  Sounds like the 'Lehman moment' is not going to be an issue according to Debelle. Contained (famous last words?) 

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 00:58:02 GMT

RBA October monetary policy meeting - early preview

The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on October 5 From Westpac's note on their leading index ), the banks Chief Economist Evan's with an early heads up on what he expects:

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RBA October monetary policy meeting - early preview


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200131/rba.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 00:58:02 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on October 5 From Westpac's note on their leading index ), the banks Chief Economist Evan's with an early heads up on what he expects:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 00:31:32 GMT

Australia - Westpac leading indicator for August -0.27% m/m (prior -0.12%)

Prior revised to -0.11%  Westpac says it could have been worse: And:

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Australia - Westpac leading indicator for August -0.27% m/m (prior -0.12%)


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 00:31:32 GMT
Category: News
0
Prior revised to -0.11%  Westpac says it could have been worse: And:

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 00:29:27 GMT

RBA Dep Gov Debelle speaking now - nothing on monetary policy so far

Reserve Bank of Australia Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor and Leon Berkelmans, Senior Manager (Financial Markets), speaking before the Australian Parliament's House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics

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RBA Dep Gov Debelle speaking now - nothing on monetary policy so far


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/debelle-rba.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 00:29:27 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Reserve Bank of Australia Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor and Leon Berkelmans, Senior Manager (Financial Markets), speaking before the Australian Parliament's House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics

Asset 24 View More
Wed 22 Sep 2021 00:20:14 GMT

Yen crosses a touch lower in Asia morning trade

USD/JPY has dribbled under 109.20. Elsewhere across major FX rates its pretty much equally as lacklustre.  EUR/JPY has managed a its lowest since February this year. 

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Yen crosses a touch lower in Asia morning trade


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210922/euryen-22-september-2021.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 22 Sep 2021 00:20:14 GMT
Category: News
0
USD/JPY has dribbled under 109.20. Elsewhere across major FX rates its pretty much equally as lacklustre.  EUR/JPY has managed a its lowest since February this year. 

Asset 24 View More
Tue 21 Sep 2021 23:26:13 GMT

3

Magnitude 5.6 earthquake near south east coast of Australia

The quake was felt across Melbourne and elsewhere. No reports of damage nor injuries I am aware of yet. No tsunami alert has been issued that I am aware of yet either. 

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Magnitude 5.6 earthquake near south east coast of Australia


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210921/earthquake-melbourne-september-2021.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 21 Sep 2021 23:26:13 GMT
Category: News
3
The quake was felt across Melbourne and elsewhere. No reports of damage nor injuries I am aware of yet. No tsunami alert has been issued that I am aware of yet either. 

Asset 24 View More
Tue 21 Sep 2021 23:14:24 GMT

RBA Deputy Governor Debelle to speak soon

The Reserve Bank of Australia's Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor and Leon Berkelmans, Senior Manager (Financial Markets), will appear before the Australian Parliament's House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics  Coming up from 10.15am local time, which si 0015 GMT 

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RBA Deputy Governor Debelle to speak soon


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 21 Sep 2021 23:14:24 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The Reserve Bank of Australia's Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor and Leon Berkelmans, Senior Manager (Financial Markets), will appear before the Australian Parliament's House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics  Coming up from 10.15am local time, which si 0015 GMT 

Asset 24 View More
Tue 21 Sep 2021 22:55:02 GMT

The short version Federal Open Market Committee preview

The Federal Reserve FOMC statement will come Wednesday 22 September 2021 US time. Earlier previews: BNZ have a real quick summary of what to expect (bolding is mine):

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The short version Federal Open Market Committee preview


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210420/powell.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 21 Sep 2021 22:55:02 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The Federal Reserve FOMC statement will come Wednesday 22 September 2021 US time. Earlier previews: BNZ have a real quick summary of what to expect (bolding is mine):

Asset 24 View More
Tue 21 Sep 2021 22:21:12 GMT

1

US House votes to fund government, suspend debt limit ... (errr, yeah)

The Dems have a House majority, so that's not where any problem is going to arise.  Eyes on the Senate where passage will not be easy.  Anyway, Headlines via Reuters:

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US House votes to fund government, suspend debt limit ... (errr, yeah)


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210921/trump.jpg Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 21 Sep 2021 22:21:12 GMT
Category: News
1
The Dems have a House majority, so that's not where any problem is going to arise.  Eyes on the Senate where passage will not be easy.  Anyway, Headlines via Reuters:

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More Headlines


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