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AUDNZD sell on rallies now?  

On Tuesday the RBNZ prompted a sharp spike higher in the NZ 10 year bond yields.
AUDNZD sell on rallies now?  

 Why? The RBNZ are being asked to add housing prices to their remit.  Eamonn had the answer at the time, that it decreases the chances of an RBNZ rate cut. The thinking is that if the RBNZ add house prices to their remit then the subsequent reduction in house prices will act as a form of monetary tightening. The subsequent result is that there will be less need for negative rates. 
 
From here the RBA is focuses on keeping short term yields close to the OCR and that could leave AUD yields slightly below NZD yields until there is a dovish shift from the RBNZ. The last shifts from the RBNZ have been bullish. The start of the month had the OIS markets pricing in 40 bps of cuts by the end of 2021 compared to just 5 bps following the latest RBNZ communication. 
RBNZ, RBA

This opens up AUDNZD sell on rallies. 

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 07:05:18 GMT

Eurostoxx futures +0.2% in early European trading

European futures mildly higher in early trades - German DAX futures +0.1% - UK FTSE futures +0.2% - Spanish IBEX futures +0.2% After more of a mixed session yesterday, the market mood is slightly calmer so far but with Wall Street observing a holiday, there might be little to work with in trading today.

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Eurostoxx futures +0.2% in early European trading


Justin Low
Thu 26 Nov 2020 07:05:18 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0


European futures mildly higher in early trades - German DAX futures +0.1% - UK FTSE futures +0.2% - Spanish IBEX futures +0.2% After more of a mixed session yesterday, the market mood is slightly calmer so far but with Wall Street observing a holiday, there might be little to work with in trading today.

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 07:00:04 GMT

Germany December GfK consumer confidence -6.7 vs -4.9 expected

Latest data released by GfK - 26 November 2020 GfK notes that while retail shops had been kept open so far, the closure of restaurants, bars and hotels clouded consumers' mood. Adding that:

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Germany December GfK consumer confidence -6.7 vs -4.9 expected


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201126/11-26-2020-3-02-57-pm.png Justin Low
Thu 26 Nov 2020 07:00:04 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Latest data released by GfK - 26 November 2020 GfK notes that while retail shops had been kept open so far, the closure of restaurants, bars and hotels clouded consumers' mood. Adding that:

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 06:56:36 GMT

Trade ideas thread - European session 26 November 2020

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts There is some daily resistance closer towards 1.1966 before 1.2000 comes into play but with it being a US holiday, it may be tough to square up the conviction of the market in chasing for an extensive break over the next two days.

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Trade ideas thread - European session 26 November 2020


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201126/11-26-2020-2-47-30-pm.png Justin Low
Thu 26 Nov 2020 06:56:36 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts There is some daily resistance closer towards 1.1966 before 1.2000 comes into play but with it being a US holiday, it may be tough to square up the conviction of the market in chasing for an extensive break over the next two days.

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 06:10:39 GMT

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.91% at 26,537.31

Asian equities mostly keep a little higher on the day A solid close once again for Japanese stocks, with the Hang Seng seen up 0.2% and the Shanghai Composite up by 0.1% ahead of the closing stages.

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Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.91% at 26,537.31


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201126/11-26-2020-2-07-43-pm.png Justin Low
Thu 26 Nov 2020 06:10:39 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Asian equities mostly keep a little higher on the day A solid close once again for Japanese stocks, with the Hang Seng seen up 0.2% and the Shanghai Composite up by 0.1% ahead of the closing stages.

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 05:43:52 GMT

Germany reports 22,268 new coronavirus cases in latest update today

Another 389 deaths reported as well, taking the tally over the past three days to over 1,000 persons The figures so far this week are similar to that over the past two to three weeks, so there is little sign that the virus situation is abating. And the rise in the death count is not exactly good news with the two worst days of the pandemic now seen back-to-back.

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Germany reports 22,268 new coronavirus cases in latest update today


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201126/11-26-2020-1-36-04-pm.png Justin Low
Thu 26 Nov 2020 05:43:52 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Another 389 deaths reported as well, taking the tally over the past three days to over 1,000 persons The figures so far this week are similar to that over the past two to three weeks, so there is little sign that the virus situation is abating. And the rise in the death count is not exactly good news with the two worst days of the pandemic now seen back-to-back.

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 05:31:55 GMT

Economic data coming up in the European session

Likely to be a quiet affair amid the Thanksgiving holiday RIP legend... The most notable being that EUR/USD managing a close above 1.1900 with commodity currencies also still looking poised against the greenback for the most part.

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Economic data coming up in the European session


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201126/11-26-2020-1-19-25-pm.png Justin Low
Thu 26 Nov 2020 05:31:55 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Likely to be a quiet affair amid the Thanksgiving holiday RIP legend... The most notable being that EUR/USD managing a close above 1.1900 with commodity currencies also still looking poised against the greenback for the most part.

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 05:09:16 GMT

Italian top official calls for ECB to consider cancelling pandemic debt

Italy's prime minister adviser, Riccardo Fraccaro, says the ECB should wipe out or hold forever the government debt bought during the crisis Fraccaro said in an interview yesterday:

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Italian top official calls for ECB to consider cancelling pandemic debt


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201126/11-26-2020-1-08-18-pm.png Justin Low
Thu 26 Nov 2020 05:09:16 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Italy's prime minister adviser, Riccardo Fraccaro, says the ECB should wipe out or hold forever the government debt bought during the crisis Fraccaro said in an interview yesterday:

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 04:37:53 GMT

China Securities Journal says some stimulus exit very likely, but no rate hike soon

A front-page article in the China Securities Journal, is a national securities newspaper, under the state media giant Xinhua News Agency. From the piece (via Bloomberg):

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China Securities Journal says some stimulus exit very likely, but no rate hike soon


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 04:37:53 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
A front-page article in the China Securities Journal, is a national securities newspaper, under the state media giant Xinhua News Agency. From the piece (via Bloomberg):

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 04:22:14 GMT

New Zealand to declare a climate emergency, pledge action

I am not sure on the details of this or how it may, or may not, impact the NZD. But, its been a big week in NZ (and its not over yet) with the new directions given to the RBNZ to take housing prices into account in policy setting.

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New Zealand to declare a climate emergency, pledge action


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 04:22:14 GMT
Category: News
0
I am not sure on the details of this or how it may, or may not, impact the NZD. But, its been a big week in NZ (and its not over yet) with the new directions given to the RBNZ to take housing prices into account in policy setting.

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 03:56:20 GMT

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Bitcoin back under $18,000

Forex news for Asia trading for Thursday 26 November 2020 Asia FX traded in small ranges today ahead of the long US holiday coming up for Thanksgiving. There was little news flow of importance for the major traded forex pairs although the Bank of Korea did announce its latest policy decision (on hold) and promised intervention on the won if FX markets behave in a herd-like manner, adding that the appreciation in the won (KRW) has been too fast.

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ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Bitcoin back under $18,000


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201126/btc-wrap-26-november-2020.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 03:56:20 GMT
Category: News
0
Forex news for Asia trading for Thursday 26 November 2020 Asia FX traded in small ranges today ahead of the long US holiday coming up for Thanksgiving. There was little news flow of importance for the major traded forex pairs although the Bank of Korea did announce its latest policy decision (on hold) and promised intervention on the won if FX markets behave in a herd-like manner, adding that the appreciation in the won (KRW) has been too fast.

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 03:33:09 GMT

Recap of the Australian capex data for Q3 - weak but not worse

The business expenditure data is here from earlier: Some summary comments from Westpac on today's release:

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Recap of the Australian capex data for Q3 - weak but not worse


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 03:33:09 GMT
Category: News
0
The business expenditure data is here from earlier: Some summary comments from Westpac on today's release:

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 03:05:05 GMT

Incoming US President Biden's top economic adviser will be one of these two.

US President-elect Joe Biden is choosing between  a former Federal Reserve vice-chair, and an executive at BlackRock to be his top White House economic adviser.

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Incoming US President Biden's top economic adviser will be one of these two.


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201104/build-back-better-biden.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 03:05:05 GMT
Category: News
0
US President-elect Joe Biden is choosing between  a former Federal Reserve vice-chair, and an executive at BlackRock to be his top White House economic adviser.

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 02:42:17 GMT

BoK Governor Lee says the recent gain in the won (KRW) is a bit fast

Earlier today the Bank of Korea, South Korea's central bank, left their key rate on hold and were more optimistic on their economic forecasts. Governor Lee is speaking now, main points, firstly on the currency:

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BoK Governor Lee says the recent gain in the won (KRW) is a bit fast


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 02:42:17 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Earlier today the Bank of Korea, South Korea's central bank, left their key rate on hold and were more optimistic on their economic forecasts. Governor Lee is speaking now, main points, firstly on the currency:

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 02:26:41 GMT

Its a "market holiday" atmosphere until Monday, but Brexit headlines will continue

US markets are closed Thursday 26 November 2020 for the Thanksgiving holiday and then it'll be a quiet Friday heading into the weekend. However ... Brexit negotiations will plod along and the usual slew of headlines will hit. 

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Its a "market holiday" atmosphere until Monday, but Brexit headlines will continue


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201003/johnson-van-der-leyen.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 02:26:41 GMT
Category: News
0
US markets are closed Thursday 26 November 2020 for the Thanksgiving holiday and then it'll be a quiet Friday heading into the weekend. However ... Brexit negotiations will plod along and the usual slew of headlines will hit. 

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 02:05:22 GMT

Westpac on the new instructions to the RBNZ from the New Zealand government

Its been an eventful week so far in NZ with the government there asking the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to consider policies to contain house prices rises. ICYMI from Tuesday:

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Westpac on the new instructions to the RBNZ from the New Zealand government


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 02:05:22 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Its been an eventful week so far in NZ with the government there asking the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to consider policies to contain house prices rises. ICYMI from Tuesday:

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 01:26:43 GMT

China state media warn Biden of tensions and turbulence re Taiwan clarity

Here is an interesting read from the Global Times reflecting China's view on US defense of Tawian. And a warning for incoming US President Biden:   Link here

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China state media warn Biden of tensions and turbulence re Taiwan clarity


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20200911/trump-biden.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 01:26:43 GMT
Category: News
0
Here is an interesting read from the Global Times reflecting China's view on US defense of Tawian. And a warning for incoming US President Biden:   Link here

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 01:15:32 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.5780 (vs. yesterday at 6.5749)

People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan mid-rate for the trading session ahead. Reuters estimate from their survey was 6.5759, Bloomberg 6.5776 PBOC add in 80bn yuan through 7-day RRs in open market operations

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.5780 (vs. yesterday at 6.5749)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 01:15:32 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan mid-rate for the trading session ahead. Reuters estimate from their survey was 6.5759, Bloomberg 6.5776 PBOC add in 80bn yuan through 7-day RRs in open market operations

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 01:15:13 GMT

FX option expiries for Thursday November 26 at the 10am NY cut

EUR/USD  USD/JPY  GBP/USD  AUD/USD

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FX option expiries for Thursday November 26 at the 10am NY cut


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 01:15:13 GMT
Category: Forex Orders
0
EUR/USD  USD/JPY  GBP/USD  AUD/USD

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 01:09:44 GMT

South Korea plans to delay their crypto income tax rule

South Korea’s national assembly planning and finance committee is reported as suggesting a delaying to commencing theri cryptocurrency income tax rule to January 2022. 

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South Korea plans to delay their crypto income tax rule


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201126/btc-19k-26-november-2020.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 01:09:44 GMT
Category: Cryptocurrency
0
South Korea’s national assembly planning and finance committee is reported as suggesting a delaying to commencing theri cryptocurrency income tax rule to January 2022. 

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 00:55:54 GMT

AUD little changed after the lowest reported capex spend since 2007

Expectations for capex were low but the result has disappointed even those: Sort of like my school reports but that's a whole other story.  I digress, data here: 

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AUD little changed after the lowest reported capex spend since 2007


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201126/aud-thanskgiving-2020.png Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 00:55:54 GMT
Category: News
0
Expectations for capex were low but the result has disappointed even those: Sort of like my school reports but that's a whole other story.  I digress, data here: 

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Thu 26 Nov 2020 00:30:08 GMT

Australian Private Capital Expenditure (capex) for Q3: -3.0% q/q (expected -1.5%)

The headline has come in at -3% q/q (-13.8% y/y) Other key figures from the report: Plenty more to come  

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Australian Private Capital Expenditure (capex) for Q3: -3.0% q/q (expected -1.5%)


Eamonn Sheridan
Thu 26 Nov 2020 00:30:08 GMT
Category: News
0
The headline has come in at -3% q/q (-13.8% y/y) Other key figures from the report: Plenty more to come  

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Wed 25 Nov 2020 23:59:03 GMT

South Korea daily confirmed coronavirus cases today above 500, for the first time since March

Asian countries are a lot less tolerant of rising case numbers than those in Europe, and of course the US. You can expect restrictions to be tightened further in SK ahead.

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South Korea daily confirmed coronavirus cases today above 500, for the first time since March


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201125/south-korea-coronavirus.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 25 Nov 2020 23:59:03 GMT
Category: News
0
Asian countries are a lot less tolerant of rising case numbers than those in Europe, and of course the US. You can expect restrictions to be tightened further in SK ahead.

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Wed 25 Nov 2020 23:46:23 GMT

China compliance with US Phase 1 trade deal is less than half after 10 months

This will come as no surprise, but a catch up on the Phase 1 'trade deal'. This via The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization:

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China compliance with US Phase 1 trade deal is less than half after 10 months


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201125/phase-one-chain-us-26-november-2020.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 25 Nov 2020 23:46:23 GMT
Category: News
0
This will come as no surprise, but a catch up on the Phase 1 'trade deal'. This via The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization:

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Wed 25 Nov 2020 22:54:38 GMT

Credit Suisse still like gold higher, fundamentals remain supportive

CS note on gold saying the decline in prices is mere 'bump in the road'. CS cite the factors that supported the rise in price remain in place: Gold weekly (if you are after chart we have them free here:  )

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Credit Suisse still like gold higher, fundamentals remain supportive


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201125/gold-chart-26-november-2020.png Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 25 Nov 2020 22:54:38 GMT
Category: News
0
CS note on gold saying the decline in prices is mere 'bump in the road'. CS cite the factors that supported the rise in price remain in place: Gold weekly (if you are after chart we have them free here:  )

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