Goldman Sachs oil price forecast for Q3 2019 bumped higher

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Analysts at the investment bank see a short term boost for prices into the third quarter of 2019.

Say there are transient risks to the upside
  • prior forecast of $66/barrel (Brent) raised to $74-$76
  • After Q3, Permian basin de-bottleneck should improve supply.
Looking for demand to improve:
  • A demand led move higher in the face of current high skepticism toward accelerating economic activity
  • volatility created by Iran-U.S. tensions
  • Nonetheless, the coming weeks may be the first window for this support to play out as the economic data calendar moves to its window of greater relevance and influences on risky assets, including oil.

Goldman Sachs oil forecast

ForexLive

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Mon 22 Jul 2019 01:15:31 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-rate Monday 22 July 2019 at 6.8759 (vs. Friday at 6.8635)

CNY is the onshore yuan. It is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this mid-point, the daily reference rate.  - The PBOC will intervene at these boundaries to keep the CNY in the band for the day. People's Bank of China setting the onshore yuan weaker to open the week. Injects 50bn yuan via 7 day reverse repos. 

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-rate Monday 22 July 2019 at 6.8759 (vs. Friday at 6.8635)

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 22 Jul 2019 01:15:31 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
CNY is the onshore yuan. It is permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this mid-point, the daily reference rate.  - The PBOC will intervene at these boundaries to keep the CNY in the band for the day. People's Bank of China setting the onshore yuan weaker to open the week. Injects 50bn yuan via 7 day reverse repos. 
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UK Parliamentary gridlock: Where now for Brexit?
Asset 41
Mon 22 Jul 2019 01:15:16 GMT

FX option expiries Monday 22 July 2019 10am NY cut

EUR/USD - 1.1265 671m euro USD/JPY  - 107.00 676m USD - 107.10 625m  - 107.25 590m  - 107.35 1.3b  - 107.40 445m  - 107.50 510m  NZD/USD

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FX option expiries Monday 22 July 2019 10am NY cut

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 22 Jul 2019 01:15:16 GMT
Category: Forex Orders
0
EUR/USD - 1.1265 671m euro USD/JPY  - 107.00 676m USD - 107.10 625m  - 107.25 590m  - 107.35 1.3b  - 107.40 445m  - 107.50 510m  NZD/USD
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Mon 22 Jul 2019 00:57:56 GMT

USD/JPY up into the daily Tokyo fix

Daily fixings coming through just a couple of tics or so off 108 Yen has been a touch weak during morning Japan trade but this little jump coming into the fix.

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USD/JPY up into the daily Tokyo fix

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190722/108-usyen.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 22 Jul 2019 00:57:56 GMT
Category: News
0
Daily fixings coming through just a couple of tics or so off 108 Yen has been a touch weak during morning Japan trade but this little jump coming into the fix.
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Mon 22 Jul 2019 00:38:48 GMT

Australian CBA business spending index - weakest since Feb 2017

Commonwealth Bank's measure of economy-wide spending, report for June 2019 out. Business Sales Indicator (BSI) "broadly flat in trend terms" - Spending growth has decelerated for four consecutive months This is not a closely watched indicator.

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Australian CBA business spending index - weakest since Feb 2017

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190722/australia-retails-sales.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 22 Jul 2019 00:38:48 GMT
Category: News
0
Commonwealth Bank's measure of economy-wide spending, report for June 2019 out. Business Sales Indicator (BSI) "broadly flat in trend terms" - Spending growth has decelerated for four consecutive months This is not a closely watched indicator.
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 23:57:01 GMT

More poor South Korean data - preliminary data for July show exports plunge

South Korean July 1-20 exports (data via the Customs agency, Reuters)   --- July 1-20 imports Semiconductor exports -30.2% y/y  'Canary in the coalmine' is often how the performance of SK is viewed. If these are anything to go by its an ex-canary. There will be impact in these from Japan's move on curbing exporting technology products to the country. 

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More poor South Korean data - preliminary data for July show exports plunge

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 23:57:01 GMT
Category: News
0
South Korean July 1-20 exports (data via the Customs agency, Reuters)   --- July 1-20 imports Semiconductor exports -30.2% y/y  'Canary in the coalmine' is often how the performance of SK is viewed. If these are anything to go by its an ex-canary. There will be impact in these from Japan's move on curbing exporting technology products to the country. 
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 23:28:38 GMT

Is the Fed rate cut this month locked in - despite data flow still to come? Yes.

The Federal Open Market Committee meet on July 30 and 31, and between now and then there is still US data to come. - Both macro economic reports - and firms' earnings reports So, is a 25bp cut locked in?

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Is the Fed rate cut this month locked in - despite data flow still to come? Yes.

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190721/trump-powell.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 23:28:38 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The Federal Open Market Committee meet on July 30 and 31, and between now and then there is still US data to come. - Both macro economic reports - and firms' earnings reports So, is a 25bp cut locked in?
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 23:23:56 GMT

Brexit - UK press report that the European Union is preparing a huge aid package for Ireland

UK Times with the report.  This will be on a 'hope for the best, plan for the worst' basis for Brexit.  Likely new PM Johnson has shown little inclination not to leave the EU on October 31. Deal or no deal. 

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Brexit - UK press report that the European Union is preparing a huge aid package for Ireland

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190721/boris-j.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 23:23:56 GMT
Category: News
0
UK Times with the report.  This will be on a 'hope for the best, plan for the worst' basis for Brexit.  Likely new PM Johnson has shown little inclination not to leave the EU on October 31. Deal or no deal. 
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 23:13:00 GMT

108 in USD/JPY flagged as resistance

Credit Agricole on US/Yen following the in Japan over the weekend: election - may test 108 - Japanese equities could also head higher - 108 is likely to see sellers enter though as the response to the election win is likely to be restrained. It wasn't a surprise result. 

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108 in USD/JPY flagged as resistance

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 23:13:00 GMT
Category: News
0
Credit Agricole on US/Yen following the in Japan over the weekend: election - may test 108 - Japanese equities could also head higher - 108 is likely to see sellers enter though as the response to the election win is likely to be restrained. It wasn't a surprise result. 
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 22:50:42 GMT

Most likely* China policy options ahead - more fiscal spending, PBOC liquidity injections

The little star in the headline  .... Most likely unless there is some major shock to the system (eg. trade war with US gets much worse). I posted last week on the meeting of top China officials late this month and into early August:

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Most likely* China policy options ahead - more fiscal spending, PBOC liquidity injections

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190721/china.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 22:50:42 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The little star in the headline  .... Most likely unless there is some major shock to the system (eg. trade war with US gets much worse). I posted last week on the meeting of top China officials late this month and into early August:
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 22:04:35 GMT

More weekend Brexit news - EU in talks with UK on new Brexit plan to avoid no-deal

The UK Sunday Times with the EU officials are looking to work with likely new PM Johnson to kick start talks on a new Brexit plan to avert a no-deal exit. - Senior Irish politicians and diplomats, German, French, Dutch Belgian -  all have initiated contact with Johnson's team. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney

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More weekend Brexit news - EU in talks with UK on new Brexit plan to avoid no-deal

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190721/uk-ireland.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 22:04:35 GMT
Category: News
0
The UK Sunday Times with the EU officials are looking to work with likely new PM Johnson to kick start talks on a new Brexit plan to avert a no-deal exit. - Senior Irish politicians and diplomats, German, French, Dutch Belgian -  all have initiated contact with Johnson's team. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 21:26:52 GMT

"De-escalation" calls after Iran seizes UK tanker in the Gulf

ICYMI - Iran seized a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. Over the weekend there have been various calls for for calm, including the UK: Defence Minister Tobias Ellwood (interview with Sky:

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"De-escalation" calls after Iran seizes UK tanker in the Gulf

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190721/iran-oil-uk-tanker.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 21:26:52 GMT
Category: News
0
ICYMI - Iran seized a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. Over the weekend there have been various calls for for calm, including the UK: Defence Minister Tobias Ellwood (interview with Sky:
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 20:57:15 GMT

(Soon to be UK PM ) Johnson favours a FTA with EU

Boris Johnson writes a regular column for the UK newspaper The Telegraph. In his latest: - UK could leave the European Union by agreeing a free trade agreement

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(Soon to be UK PM ) Johnson favours a FTA with EU

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181002/boris-johnson.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 20:57:15 GMT
Category: News
0
Boris Johnson writes a regular column for the UK newspaper The Telegraph. In his latest: - UK could leave the European Union by agreeing a free trade agreement
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 20:52:39 GMT

Trade ideas thread - Monday 22 July 2019

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

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Trade ideas thread - Monday 22 July 2019

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 20:52:39 GMT
Category: News
0
Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 20:43:50 GMT

Front page of the Financial Times - Fed to cut rates

Expectations are the Fed will be cutting by 25 basis points. The FT reflecting those expectation on its front page. The Federal Open Market Committee announcement is due July 31.

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Front page of the Financial Times - Fed to cut rates

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190721/ft-federal-reserve.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 20:43:50 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Expectations are the Fed will be cutting by 25 basis points. The FT reflecting those expectation on its front page. The Federal Open Market Committee announcement is due July 31.
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 20:26:17 GMT

Japan upper house election - Abe maintains solid majority

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition has maintained their majority in the 245-member upper house The weekend election was for half the seats. Abe's coalition took enough seats to ensure their majority is maintained. But fell short of a 'super majority' Abe would like to ease constitutional reform.

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Japan upper house election - Abe maintains solid majority

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190721/abe.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 20:26:17 GMT
Category: News
0
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition has maintained their majority in the 245-member upper house The weekend election was for half the seats. Abe's coalition took enough seats to ensure their majority is maintained. But fell short of a 'super majority' Abe would like to ease constitutional reform.
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 19:48:44 GMT

UK fin min Hammond to resign this week (Wednesday)

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond has said he will resign on Wednesday this week (July 24). - Says he cannot work in a Boris Johnson government - "I cannot accept the idea of leaving with no-deal on October 31"  So Wednesday will be, for this week, Phil'sGotTheHump Day (why, yes, that is camelCase).

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UK fin min Hammond to resign this week (Wednesday)

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20161121/hammond-helmet.png Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 19:48:44 GMT
Category: News
0
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond has said he will resign on Wednesday this week (July 24). - Says he cannot work in a Boris Johnson government - "I cannot accept the idea of leaving with no-deal on October 31"  So Wednesday will be, for this week, Phil'sGotTheHump Day (why, yes, that is camelCase).
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Sun 21 Jul 2019 19:41:27 GMT

Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today (nearly empty)

The Bank of Japan have a JGB purchase operation planned at 0110GMT. Buying of maturities with 1-3, 3-5, and 5-10 years remaining until expiry. Could be a good day to go ride a horse or something,

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Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today (nearly empty)

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 19:41:27 GMT
Category: News
0
The Bank of Japan have a JGB purchase operation planned at 0110GMT. Buying of maturities with 1-3, 3-5, and 5-10 years remaining until expiry. Could be a good day to go ride a horse or something,
Asset 24 View More
Sun 21 Jul 2019 19:03:16 GMT

Monday morning opening forex levels - indicative prices

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Here is a guide to indicative rates.  As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin. It improves as more Asian centres come on online. Until then, rates can swing around on not too much at all, so take care.

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Monday morning opening forex levels - indicative prices

Eamonn Sheridan
Sun 21 Jul 2019 19:03:16 GMT
Category: News
0
Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Here is a guide to indicative rates.  As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin. It improves as more Asian centres come on online. Until then, rates can swing around on not too much at all, so take care.
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Sat 20 Jul 2019 10:15:41 GMT

22

UK Parliamentary gridlock: Where now for Brexit?

Fear and loathing in Westminster Last week saw some pretty bleak forecasts from the UK's office for budget responsibility (OBR).  The OBR said that UK borrowing would rise to £60 billion from £29.3bn. You . However, at the same time there was a UK amendment at the end of last week preventing a no-deal Brexit being imposed on a frozen UK parliament. So, with a potential stop sign to a potential BOJO Brexit bonanza, where now for Brexit and the GBP? ForexLive

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UK Parliamentary gridlock: Where now for Brexit?

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190720/kevin-grieve-sks9n9mcbvu-unsplash.jpg Giles Coghlan
Sat 20 Jul 2019 10:15:41 GMT
Category: News
22
Fear and loathing in Westminster Last week saw some pretty bleak forecasts from the UK's office for budget responsibility (OBR).  The OBR said that UK borrowing would rise to £60 billion from £29.3bn. You . However, at the same time there was a UK amendment at the end of last week preventing a no-deal Brexit being imposed on a frozen UK parliament. So, with a potential stop sign to a potential BOJO Brexit bonanza, where now for Brexit and the GBP? ForexLive
Asset 24 View More
Sat 20 Jul 2019 02:30:01 GMT

3

Video: CAD, the impossible Brexit and my top trade idea right now

What's coming to markets I stopped by BNNBloomberg to talk about the Canadian dollar, Brexit fearmongering and my favourite trade. Would you like us to make more videos? Let us know by .

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Video: CAD, the impossible Brexit and my top trade idea right now

Adam Button
Sat 20 Jul 2019 02:30:01 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
3
What's coming to markets I stopped by BNNBloomberg to talk about the Canadian dollar, Brexit fearmongering and my favourite trade. Would you like us to make more videos? Let us know by .
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Fri 19 Jul 2019 20:43:56 GMT

13

Fed's Rosengren: US economy doing quite well, not having a slowdown

Comments from Rosengren There's no doubt that he won't be supporting a 50 bps cut. I think we can put that entire notion to bed. I think Powell deserves a lot of blame for that talk. The market was showing a good chance of 50 bps and he kept sending out dovish messages. The market is still showing an 18% chance of 50bps.

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Fed's Rosengren: US economy doing quite well, not having a slowdown

Adam Button
Fri 19 Jul 2019 20:43:56 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
13
Comments from Rosengren There's no doubt that he won't be supporting a 50 bps cut. I think we can put that entire notion to bed. I think Powell deserves a lot of blame for that talk. The market was showing a good chance of 50 bps and he kept sending out dovish messages. The market is still showing an 18% chance of 50bps.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 19 Jul 2019 20:37:06 GMT

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Late headlines spark moves

Forex news for North American trade on July 19, 2019: Markets: - Gold down $20 to $1425 - WTI crude up 65-cents to $55.95 - US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 2.05% North American trade started out with a miss on Canadian retail sales. That quickly sent USD/CAD up to 1.3110 on the headline but the gain didn't last, in part due to details of the report that showed an odd drop in grocery store sales as a main culprit. USD/CAD retreated to 1.3070 shortly after then fell further late as Iran worries prompted a rebound in crude.

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Late headlines spark moves

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190719/2019-07-19_16-48-51.png Adam Button
Fri 19 Jul 2019 20:37:06 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Forex news for North American trade on July 19, 2019: Markets: - Gold down $20 to $1425 - WTI crude up 65-cents to $55.95 - US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 2.05% North American trade started out with a miss on Canadian retail sales. That quickly sent USD/CAD up to 1.3110 on the headline but the gain didn't last, in part due to details of the report that showed an odd drop in grocery store sales as a main culprit. USD/CAD retreated to 1.3070 shortly after then fell further late as Iran worries prompted a rebound in crude.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 19 Jul 2019 20:11:30 GMT

2

US stocks go out at the session lows

Nasdaq leads the way lower  The major US stock indices are going out near/at session lows.  The S&P index is disappointed that it could not remain above the 3000 level. The Dow was up 120 points at the highs.  

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US stocks go out at the session lows

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190719/2019-07-19_13-11-54.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 19 Jul 2019 20:11:30 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
2
Nasdaq leads the way lower  The major US stock indices are going out near/at session lows.  The S&P index is disappointed that it could not remain above the 3000 level. The Dow was up 120 points at the highs.  
Asset 24 View More
Fri 19 Jul 2019 20:03:31 GMT

3

Fitch affirms Germany at AAA with a stable outlook

Germany keeps its top rating Any country that can borrow at -0.3% for 10 years isn't in danger of default. They get paid to take on debt. ForexLive

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Fitch affirms Germany at AAA with a stable outlook

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20140616/gPJbR.gif Adam Button
Fri 19 Jul 2019 20:03:31 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
3
Germany keeps its top rating Any country that can borrow at -0.3% for 10 years isn't in danger of default. They get paid to take on debt. ForexLive
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