Can USD/CAD maintain yesterday's break of the July high?

According to Reuters, citing an unnamed government source

Latest data released by ONS - 21 November 2018

• Prior £3.3 billion; revised to £2.0 billion
• PSNB (ex-banks) £8.8 billion vs £6.1 billion expected
• Prior (ex-banks) £4.1 billion; revised to £2.8 billion
• Public finances (PSNCR) -£3.3 billion vs £15.8 billion prior

Italy's statistics bureau revises its growth projections for the country

• Sees 2019 GDP growth forecast at 1.3%
• Government's budget will support domestic demand in 2019
• Net exports will make no contribution to growth

Near-term bias in GBP/USD remains more bearish

Comments by German chancellor Angela Merkel

• Believes that there will be a solution by Sunday
• There is a difficult problem in the Brexit agreement
• That is the issue of the Irish border

When you can't fight it, ban it

The surge in Italian bonds is helping financials

Price still trades below key resistance levels

Latest data released by the SNB - 21 November 2018

• Prior +2.3%

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts

ForexLive

• NZD, AUD leads as risk sentiment improves
• European equities poised to open higher; E-minis up 0.6% currently
• JPY, USD give back some overnight gains as risk recovers on the day
• Italian bonds bid at the open, helps to provide some relief to the EUR

Salvini's earlier comment helping to keep bonds bid as the session begins

Positive risk tones in early trades

EUR/USD touches a high of 1.1401 on the day

OIl's tumbling and here is why

Oil has been on a tumble recently and it is driven, amongst other things (or should I say tweets), by two fundamental drivers

They are projections for an increase in supply and projections for a fall in demand. The price is being hit both ways.

Increase in supply 

Here is what OPEC had to say on the projected increase in supply: 

Global crude exports are expected to increase by around 5.4 mb/d, mostly driven by increasing demand and falling domestic supply in the Asia-Pacific. In the short-term, global crude exports are likely to increase to around 40 mb/d in 2020, up from 38.5 mb/d in 2017, driven by increasing export volumes from the US & Canada, which are estimated to grow by more than 2 mb/d between 2017 and 2020.

Here is the projections chart on supply levels for the next few years.

Fall in Demand

Although oil demand is set to increase by an average annual amount of 1.2 million barrels per day, into 2020 the demand is set to fall. Here are those projections here: (hint look at the 2019 bar chart to see falling demand compared to 2018)

So, there we have it folks. One for your memory banks. Falling oil is being hit by falling demand and increasing supply, particular from the US. Hopefully this will help you trade Oil intelligently in light of the coming/anticipated OPEC production cuts.Those cuts are currently projected to be around 1.4mbd. The OPEC meeting is in Vienna early December on the 6th and 7th.

According to a report by La Stampa

Slight dollar and yen weakness creeping in ahead of European trading

E-minis are up by about 0.4% so far today

Tokyo's main index closes lower but well off the lows earlier today

Italy's finance minister Giovanni Tria speaks to Il Sole reporters

A quiet mid-week calendar in terms of economic releases in Europe

Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Wednesday 21 November 2018

• Japan data - All Industry Activity Index for Sept. -0.9% m/m (prior +0.4%)
• More on the US Treasury saying China has failed to alter unfair trade practices
• China tells market analysts to adhere to the party line in research
• ICYMI - Oil 'God' sees recovery in price for crude
• The extraordinary EU Brexit summit is scheduled for this weekend - what to expect
• New Zealand data - credit card spending for October: -0.1% m/m (prior +0.8%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9449 (vs. yesterday at 6.9280)
• China press (opinion piece) says not to expect much monetary policy loosening
• GBP, Brexit and UK politics - here is why Prime Minister May is safe
• Australia - Westpac's Leading Index for October: +0.08% m/m (prior -0.06%)
• UK Times reports - 'Voters rally behind PM May'
• US Trade Rep says China has not altered its unfair market practices
• JP Morgan is still looking for 4 Fed rate hikes in 2019 (and a higher USD)
• Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 21 November 2018
• Private survey oil data shows surprise draw in headline crude inventories

Emphasis on small, K? The Australian and New Zealand dollars had slumped in overnight trade (along with other currencies, equities, industrial commodities also) but found a small bid here in Asia today. USD/JPY was a gainer (small too), which prompted some of the shorts in yen crosses to take some in. EUR, GBP, CHF and CAD were all lacklustre though, not doing too much at all. So, an outperformance for the two down under currencies.

News flow was light indeed, not much of market impact. Of most note was the report from the US Treasury saying China's unfair trading practices persist. There are still expectations that Trump and Xi will get something agreed to ahead of the G20 summit (Nov 30 - Dec 1) but Lighthizer will keep the pressure on the White House with this report.

Oil had a price pop on the private inventory survey results (surprise draw) and managed to sustain that gain in Asia.

Still to come:

• The EU announcement on the Italian Budget (no soup for you!) expected 1100GMT
• Wednesday US data due - preview of durable goods, home sales, consumer confidence
• Wednesday forex option expiries
  
• Heads up for an earlier than normal Japanese inflation data report - due Thursday
  

This index is a proxy for economic growth (GDP) that comes out each month. Which is handy as we only get GDO once a quarter.

The earlier post is here with the gist of it:

• US Trade Rep says China has not altered its unfair market practices
  

• Lighthizer said in a statement. "This update shows that China has not fundamentally altered its unfair, unreasonable, and market-distorting practices that were the subject of the March 2018 report on our Section 301 investigation."
  

Head of China's securities regulator met with representatives from more than 30 brokerages and fund firms in early November.

• Told economists and analysts to take into account the interests of the Party and the country when publishing research
• senior economists from brokerages and fund companies signed a "Chief Economist Self-Discipline Proposal"

• Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Huafu Securities Co., said he's among those who signed the agreement. 
• "To me, signing the agreement helps restore standards and is a step toward the healthy development of the industry," Lu said in an interview. "And you can still say what you want to say, but with more careful and neutral wording."