Fed's Evans: Not surprising that yield curves tend to be flatter

GMTAuthor: Justin Low

Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans, speaks to Bloomberg TV now

  • Yield curves have showed slightly higher chance of recession
  • Q1 growth looks like it's going to be weaker
  • Expects a rebound in economic activity in Q2
  • Monetary policy is almost at a neutral level
ForexLive

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Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:35:03 GMT

Trade ideas thread - European session 25 March 2019

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts Currencies remain mostly mixed with little change from last week's close though the pound is finding itself on the back foot as May is facing political pressure from all sides with a third meaningful vote this week looking rather unlikely now.

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Trade ideas thread - European session 25 March 2019

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/3-25-2019-3-34-35-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:35:03 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts Currencies remain mostly mixed with little change from last week's close though the pound is finding itself on the back foot as May is facing political pressure from all sides with a third meaningful vote this week looking rather unlikely now.
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Six things are sparking market fears today
Asset 41
Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:24:24 GMT

1

Fed's Evans: Rates are at a decent place, this is a good time to pause

Further comments by Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans - Global growth concerns another reason to hold policy - China slowdown adds to worries on global outlook ForexLive

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Fed's Evans: Rates are at a decent place, this is a good time to pause

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190109/charles-evans.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:24:24 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
1
Further comments by Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans - Global growth concerns another reason to hold policy - China slowdown adds to worries on global outlook ForexLive
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:22:37 GMT

2

UK's Letwin: Optimistic that we can find a solution through indicative votes

UK MP, Oliver Letwin, has been a vocal figure in spearheading this idea - We need to establish what kind of solution could secure a cross-party majority - Does not know if indicative votes will work ForexLive

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UK's Letwin: Optimistic that we can find a solution through indicative votes

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/brexit.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:22:37 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
2
UK MP, Oliver Letwin, has been a vocal figure in spearheading this idea - We need to establish what kind of solution could secure a cross-party majority - Does not know if indicative votes will work ForexLive
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:12:05 GMT

Sterling pressured as Brexit endgame draws nearer

The pound is the laggard as we begin the European morning ForexLive Cable touched a low of 1.3167 in the past half-hour before moving up slightly now but the pound is still the weakest performer among the major currencies bloc so far today. The latest on Brexit developments is that May is potentially facing a Cabinet revolt with growing pressures for her to step down as prime minister in order to win support for a Brexit deal.

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Sterling pressured as Brexit endgame draws nearer

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/3-25-2019-3-00-07-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:12:05 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
0
The pound is the laggard as we begin the European morning ForexLive Cable touched a low of 1.3167 in the past half-hour before moving up slightly now but the pound is still the weakest performer among the major currencies bloc so far today. The latest on Brexit developments is that May is potentially facing a Cabinet revolt with growing pressures for her to step down as prime minister in order to win support for a Brexit deal.
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:09:26 GMT

Swiss National Bank: No rate hikes expected for a couple of years

Negative rates the new normal for the SNB Thomas Jordan has said recently that  The SNB spent over 2 billion CHF in currency intervention last ye The interest rate at the SNB remains at -0.75% and even though the CHF has depreciated recently it is still described by the SNB as 'highly valued'.

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Swiss National Bank: No rate hikes expected for a couple of years

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190322/peter-ogilvie-589716-unsplash.jpg Giles Coghlan
Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:09:26 GMT
Category: Cryptocurrency
0
Negative rates the new normal for the SNB Thomas Jordan has said recently that  The SNB spent over 2 billion CHF in currency intervention last ye The interest rate at the SNB remains at -0.75% and even though the CHF has depreciated recently it is still described by the SNB as 'highly valued'.
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:03:44 GMT

Eurostoxx futures -0.6% in early European trading

The softer tone carries over to Europe - German DAX futures -0.7% - French CAC 40 futures -0.5% - UK FTSE futures -0.4% ForexLive The negative tone from Asia reverberates to Europe in early trades but the only positive thing for risk is that Treasury yields aren't exactly dropping off just yet. 10-year yields are flat on the day at 2.439% currently and that's providing some calm at least to currencies at the start of the session here.

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Eurostoxx futures -0.6% in early European trading

Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 07:03:44 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
The softer tone carries over to Europe - German DAX futures -0.7% - French CAC 40 futures -0.5% - UK FTSE futures -0.4% ForexLive The negative tone from Asia reverberates to Europe in early trades but the only positive thing for risk is that Treasury yields aren't exactly dropping off just yet. 10-year yields are flat on the day at 2.439% currently and that's providing some calm at least to currencies at the start of the session here.
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:43:03 GMT

Major currencies mixed ahead of European markets open

Currencies hit the reset button after some risk-off moves earlier ForexLive Asian equities are posting heavy losses on the day but it is bonds that will be the key factor driving global markets. Of note, Treasury yields are still nearly flat on the session and that is leading to some calm seen in major currencies ahead of European trading.

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Major currencies mixed ahead of European markets open

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/3-25-2019-2-32-28-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:43:03 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Currencies hit the reset button after some risk-off moves earlier ForexLive Asian equities are posting heavy losses on the day but it is bonds that will be the key factor driving global markets. Of note, Treasury yields are still nearly flat on the session and that is leading to some calm seen in major currencies ahead of European trading.
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:36:56 GMT

Fed's Evans says has a hard time seeing strong price pressures

Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans, continues to speak in Hong Kong ForexLive

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Fed's Evans says has a hard time seeing strong price pressures

Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:36:56 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans, continues to speak in Hong Kong ForexLive
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:34:07 GMT

BOJ's Harada: Most economic indicators apart from inflation are improving

Right... But the BOJ still can't do anything if inflation doesn't improve - Without QQE, Japan jobless rate would not have fallen below 2% - QQE's biggest contribution was to boost Japanese economy's productivity ForexLive

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BOJ's Harada: Most economic indicators apart from inflation are improving

Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:34:07 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Right... But the BOJ still can't do anything if inflation doesn't improve - Without QQE, Japan jobless rate would not have fallen below 2% - QQE's biggest contribution was to boost Japanese economy's productivity ForexLive
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:30:26 GMT

There is an opportunity for Aussie yield curve to flatten - Goldman Sachs

The firm says investors are discounting too much at the front end of the curve Australia's 10-year bond yields dropped to a record low "With the unemployment rate at decade lows at 4.9% we continue to think the market is discounting too much at the very front end. The RBA may eventually be drawn into a cutting cycle should data deteriorate from here, but relative to current pricing we think risk-reward favours curve flatteners", based on a note by the firm.

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There is an opportunity for Aussie yield curve to flatten - Goldman Sachs

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/3-25-2019-2-29-31-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:30:26 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
The firm says investors are discounting too much at the front end of the curve Australia's 10-year bond yields dropped to a record low "With the unemployment rate at decade lows at 4.9% we continue to think the market is discounting too much at the very front end. The RBA may eventually be drawn into a cutting cycle should data deteriorate from here, but relative to current pricing we think risk-reward favours curve flatteners", based on a note by the firm.
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:05:15 GMT

1

Fed's Evans: May have to ease if downside risks become a reality

Comments by Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans - Risks from downside loom larger than upside ones - Fed may have to ease if activity softens more than expected ForexLive

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Fed's Evans: May have to ease if downside risks become a reality

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180711/evans.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:05:15 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
1
Comments by Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans - Risks from downside loom larger than upside ones - Fed may have to ease if activity softens more than expected ForexLive
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:02:20 GMT

2

Nikkei 225 falls 3% to close at 20,977.11

A torrid session for Asian stocks following negative tones in Wall St on Friday Currencies are more calm though, despite US equity futures being 0.4% lower, with USD/JPY recovering off the lows to stay near the 110.00 handle now. Most other major currencies are also rather unchanged against the dollar with Treasury yields staying more calm for the time being.

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Nikkei 225 falls 3% to close at 20,977.11

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/3-25-2019-2-01-30-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 06:02:20 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
2
A torrid session for Asian stocks following negative tones in Wall St on Friday Currencies are more calm though, despite US equity futures being 0.4% lower, with USD/JPY recovering off the lows to stay near the 110.00 handle now. Most other major currencies are also rather unchanged against the dollar with Treasury yields staying more calm for the time being.
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 05:30:27 GMT

More central bank speakers still to come in the session ahead

Something to be aware of in the hours to follow 0630 GMT - BOJ board member Yutaka Harada speaks at a conference Harada will be making a speech at a conference held by the Daiwa Institute of Research. There's not much other details on this but Harada has previously been known to call for further easing if the economy takes a turn for the worse.

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More central bank speakers still to come in the session ahead

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20170519/ecb.jpg Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 05:30:27 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Something to be aware of in the hours to follow 0630 GMT - BOJ board member Yutaka Harada speaks at a conference Harada will be making a speech at a conference held by the Daiwa Institute of Research. There's not much other details on this but Harada has previously been known to call for further easing if the economy takes a turn for the worse.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:50:02 GMT

BOJ's Kuroda: If long-term rates were to rise in the future, pace of rise will be gradual

Further comments by Kuroda Yup, he just commented again saying that he doesn't see a scenario in which yields will "shoot up". Just wanting to let traders/investors know of their presence.

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BOJ's Kuroda: If long-term rates were to rise in the future, pace of rise will be gradual

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/3-25-2019-12-48-26-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:50:02 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
Further comments by Kuroda Yup, he just commented again saying that he doesn't see a scenario in which yields will "shoot up". Just wanting to let traders/investors know of their presence.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:44:58 GMT

BOJ's Kuroda: During future policy exit, central bank earnings will decline

BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, speaking on the central bank's future plans - But yields should also rise, raising BOJ bond earnings - BOJ has been increasing savings to prepare for JGB fall ForexLive

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BOJ's Kuroda: During future policy exit, central bank earnings will decline

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190321/boj-kuroda.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:44:58 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, speaking on the central bank's future plans - But yields should also rise, raising BOJ bond earnings - BOJ has been increasing savings to prepare for JGB fall ForexLive
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:39:14 GMT

Heads up: Fed's Evans to speak again at the top of the hour

Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans, will be delivering another speech ForexLive

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Heads up: Fed's Evans to speak again at the top of the hour

Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:39:14 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans, will be delivering another speech ForexLive
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:34:29 GMT

Japan January all industry activity index -0.2% vs -0.4% m/m expected

Latest data released by METI - 25 March 2019 - Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.6% Slight delay in the release by the source. The data is often referred to as the monthly GDP reading, it's a tracker production across all sectors of the Japanese economy and follows the GDP growth figures/trend.

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Japan January all industry activity index -0.2% vs -0.4% m/m expected

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/3-25-2019-12-33-07-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:34:29 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Latest data released by METI - 25 March 2019 - Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.6% Slight delay in the release by the source. The data is often referred to as the monthly GDP reading, it's a tracker production across all sectors of the Japanese economy and follows the GDP growth figures/trend.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:31:12 GMT

Economic data coming up in the European session

Germany's Ifo business survey the only notable release The session ahead doesn't have much in terms of data releases but look out for more Brexit headlines to come about as enter a crucial week that could determine Theresa May's future as UK prime minister.

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Economic data coming up in the European session

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/3-25-2019-1-00-24-pm.png Justin Low
Mon 25 Mar 2019 04:31:12 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Germany's Ifo business survey the only notable release The session ahead doesn't have much in terms of data releases but look out for more Brexit headlines to come about as enter a crucial week that could determine Theresa May's future as UK prime minister.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 25 Mar 2019 03:48:25 GMT

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Fear sends yen up a few tics more

Forex news for Asia trading Monday 25 March 2019   Weekend: Politics to the fore today as the financial market week opened here in Asia. - 1. Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report was delivered to the US Congress, with a summary of findings issued by Attorney General William Barr. Yes, the report itself is not yet publicly available, just the four-page summary sent to the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate Judiciary Committees. Bear in mind that the headlines come from this letter from Barr, but in a nutshell, the report found no collusion by Trump with Russia (its more complex than that, but, yeah, in a nutshell). There are plenty of other points and more questions to come. Not over. The initial market response was a move to US equity indices (Globex trade) and out of yen, but the moves were small indeed. These moves have since been reversed and then some.

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ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Fear sends yen up a few tics more

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/nikkei-wrap-chart-25-march-2019.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 25 Mar 2019 03:48:25 GMT
Category: News
0
Forex news for Asia trading Monday 25 March 2019   Weekend: Politics to the fore today as the financial market week opened here in Asia. - 1. Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report was delivered to the US Congress, with a summary of findings issued by Attorney General William Barr. Yes, the report itself is not yet publicly available, just the four-page summary sent to the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate Judiciary Committees. Bear in mind that the headlines come from this letter from Barr, but in a nutshell, the report found no collusion by Trump with Russia (its more complex than that, but, yeah, in a nutshell). There are plenty of other points and more questions to come. Not over. The initial market response was a move to US equity indices (Globex trade) and out of yen, but the moves were small indeed. These moves have since been reversed and then some.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 25 Mar 2019 03:39:43 GMT

1

Fed Chicago chief Evans: We have to be nervous when the yield curve gets flat

President of the  Chicago Federal Reserve branch Charles Evans spoke in HK today. Adds to his earlier comments this on the yield curve: - We have to be nervous when the yield curve gets flat Earlier posts can be found here:

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Fed Chicago chief Evans: We have to be nervous when the yield curve gets flat

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190109/charles-evans.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 25 Mar 2019 03:39:43 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
President of the  Chicago Federal Reserve branch Charles Evans spoke in HK today. Adds to his earlier comments this on the yield curve: - We have to be nervous when the yield curve gets flat Earlier posts can be found here:
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 03:18:28 GMT

New Zealand PM Ardern to meet with President Xi in China

NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to travel to China on Sunday, March 31. While in China will meet with President Xi. There have been some China-NZ tensions surrounding the NZ Government Security Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) warning against using Huawei's equipment for 5G.

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New Zealand PM Ardern to meet with President Xi in China

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190325/ardern-nz.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 25 Mar 2019 03:18:28 GMT
Category: News
0
NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to travel to China on Sunday, March 31. While in China will meet with President Xi. There have been some China-NZ tensions surrounding the NZ Government Security Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) warning against using Huawei's equipment for 5G.
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Mon 25 Mar 2019 02:48:50 GMT

Fed Evans again - will take action if inflation undershoots

Head of the Chicago Federal Reserve branch Charles Evans is speaking from Hong Kong today. Earlier: Its a panel and Evans is still going, adds: - will take action if inflation undershoots Of course he (and the Fed) will, doubly so for Evans who tends to be dovish.

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Fed Evans again - will take action if inflation undershoots

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 25 Mar 2019 02:48:50 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Head of the Chicago Federal Reserve branch Charles Evans is speaking from Hong Kong today. Earlier: Its a panel and Evans is still going, adds: - will take action if inflation undershoots Of course he (and the Fed) will, doubly so for Evans who tends to be dovish.
Asset 24 View More
Mon 25 Mar 2019 02:16:27 GMT

2

More from Fed's Evans - does not see a rate hike until H2 of 2020

Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is speaking in Hong Kong today on a panel. Earlier comments are here: Adds now: - Fed is mindful of constraints in financial markets

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More from Fed's Evans - does not see a rate hike until H2 of 2020

https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190220/federal-reserve-winter.png Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 25 Mar 2019 02:16:27 GMT
Category: Central Banks
2
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is speaking in Hong Kong today on a panel. Earlier comments are here: Adds now: - Fed is mindful of constraints in financial markets
Asset 24 View More
Mon 25 Mar 2019 02:09:05 GMT

Bank of Korea Governor says extra budget spending would shore up economic growth

Governor Bok Lee of South Korea's central bank  - Says a 10 trln won extra budget will shore up economic growth in the country Lee appearing at a parliamentary hearing.

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Bank of Korea Governor says extra budget spending would shore up economic growth

Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 25 Mar 2019 02:09:05 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Governor Bok Lee of South Korea's central bank  - Says a 10 trln won extra budget will shore up economic growth in the country Lee appearing at a parliamentary hearing.
Asset 24 View More

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