ECB's de Guindos says if further de-anchoring of inflation expectations the Bank will react

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

1

Justin asked on Friday how long the European Central Bank will ignore the market gauge of long-term euro area inflation expectations, which fell to a fresh record low last week.  

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos spoke Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera on Saturday (report via Reuters)  and tried to put on brave face:
  • "What we need to see is a de-anchoring of inflation expectations" 
  • "This has not yet happened, despite the fact that there has been a drop in market-based inflation expectations"
  • "If there is a further deterioration, then we will react, but for now, our monetary policy stance is fully compatible with both inflation and real activity."

European Central Bank ignore market gauge of long-term euro area inflation expectationsYeah right, nothin' to see here … sheesh. 

ForexLive

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Fri 14 Jun 2019 20:21:53 GMT

18

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Strong retail sales send USD higher

Forex news for North American trade on June 14, 2019: Markets: - Gold down $2 after hitting 14-month high of $1358 - WTI crude up 26-cents to $52.54 - S&P 500 up 2 points to 2893 Strong US retail sales won out over a surprise fall in inflation expectations as the driver for the dollar and the broader market on Friday. The initial reaction to the strong data was modest, in part because it was revisions and core numbers that were the drivers of the strength. USD/JPY climbed 30 pips on the headlines but other dollar moves were slow to come.

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Strong retail sales send USD higher

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_16-20-26.png Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 20:21:53 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
18
Forex news for North American trade on June 14, 2019: Markets: - Gold down $2 after hitting 14-month high of $1358 - WTI crude up 26-cents to $52.54 - S&P 500 up 2 points to 2893 Strong US retail sales won out over a surprise fall in inflation expectations as the driver for the dollar and the broader market on Friday. The initial reaction to the strong data was modest, in part because it was revisions and core numbers that were the drivers of the strength. USD/JPY climbed 30 pips on the headlines but other dollar moves were slow to come.
Asset 24 View More
Trade ideas thread - European session 14 June 2019
Asset 41
Fri 14 Jun 2019 20:15:40 GMT

1

US stocks close with losses on the day

For the week, the major indices end up modest The major US indices are ending the session with losses on the day led by declines in the tech heavy Nasdaq. Chip stocks were hit hard after Broadcom announced worse than expected earnings and forecasts for earnings/sales going forward, blaming tariffs and China.

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US stocks close with losses on the day

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_13-10-03.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 20:15:40 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
1
For the week, the major indices end up modest The major US indices are ending the session with losses on the day led by declines in the tech heavy Nasdaq. Chip stocks were hit hard after Broadcom announced worse than expected earnings and forecasts for earnings/sales going forward, blaming tariffs and China.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 19:57:10 GMT

26

It turned into a rough day for cable and there could be more pain to come

GBP/USD down 85 pips on the day The story in markets today is really the US dollar and its broad gains but those moves have put some important support levels into play.

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It turned into a rough day for cable and there could be more pain to come

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/gbpusd-daily-june-14.png Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 19:57:10 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
26
GBP/USD down 85 pips on the day The story in markets today is really the US dollar and its broad gains but those moves have put some important support levels into play.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 19:38:45 GMT

1

CFTC commitments of traders: Smallish changes in the net speculative positions this week

Weekly Forex futures net noncommercial positioning data for the week ending June 11, 2019 - EUR short 87K vs 88K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K The CHF shorts decreased by 11KThe CAD shorts were increased by 9K.

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CFTC commitments of traders: Smallish changes in the net speculative positions this week

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_12-40-12.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 19:38:45 GMT
Category: News
1
Weekly Forex futures net noncommercial positioning data for the week ending June 11, 2019 - EUR short 87K vs 88K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K The CHF shorts decreased by 11KThe CAD shorts were increased by 9K.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 19:18:29 GMT

WTI crude oil futures settle at $52.21

Up $0.23 or 0.44% WTI crude oil futures are settling at $52.51, up $0.23 or 0.44%.  The high today reached $52.98. The low extended to $51.70.  

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WTI crude oil futures settle at $52.21

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_12-17-01.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 19:18:29 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Up $0.23 or 0.44% WTI crude oil futures are settling at $52.51, up $0.23 or 0.44%.  The high today reached $52.98. The low extended to $51.70.  
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 19:00:59 GMT

3

Has QE stolen volatility from the market?

At least it is right now The ECB Coeure had an interesting speech this week that hasn't gotten enough attention. It was all about the effects of the Asset Purchase Programme -- the central banks QE program.

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Has QE stolen volatility from the market?

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/bund-sensitivity.png Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 19:00:59 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
3
At least it is right now The ECB Coeure had an interesting speech this week that hasn't gotten enough attention. It was all about the effects of the Asset Purchase Programme -- the central banks QE program.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 18:19:01 GMT

13

The US dollar was the top performer this week

Last week it was the worst King dollar is back on the throne. Last week there was fear about Mexican tariffs and this week there was relief. Or last week there was excitement about Fed cuts, now there is worry they won't materialize.

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The US dollar was the top performer this week

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/fx-perforamnce-weekly.png Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 18:19:01 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
13
Last week it was the worst King dollar is back on the throne. Last week there was fear about Mexican tariffs and this week there was relief. Or last week there was excitement about Fed cuts, now there is worry they won't materialize.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 18:00:45 GMT

6

The New Zealand dollar bounce flops. Eight month lows in sight

NZD/USD nears support  Last week's bounce in the New Zealand dollar is confirmed to be the dead-cat variety. I wrote about this pair last Friday and noted taht it looked like a standard technical bounce.

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The New Zealand dollar bounce flops. Eight month lows in sight

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_13-54-24.png Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 18:00:45 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Technical Analysis
6
NZD/USD nears support  Last week's bounce in the New Zealand dollar is confirmed to be the dead-cat variety. I wrote about this pair last Friday and noted taht it looked like a standard technical bounce.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 17:36:38 GMT

USDJPY extends to fresh session highs, but the week's range still stinks

Mired in a narrow 65 pip range for the week The USDJPY has extended to new highs for day, and is above a near flat trend line connected the last few day's highs on the hourly chart.  However, the price still remains below the high for the week at 108.796 reached on Tuesday. That high got close to another trend line (fell a couple pips short of the line) as traders leaned (risk was defined and limited).

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USDJPY extends to fresh session highs, but the week's range still stinks

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_10-32-27aaa.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 17:36:38 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Mired in a narrow 65 pip range for the week The USDJPY has extended to new highs for day, and is above a near flat trend line connected the last few day's highs on the hourly chart.  However, the price still remains below the high for the week at 108.796 reached on Tuesday. That high got close to another trend line (fell a couple pips short of the line) as traders leaned (risk was defined and limited).
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 17:25:35 GMT

1

WH Hassett: Still sees GDP growth for the year at 3%

Outgoing  White House chairman of Council of Economic Advisers Hassett speaking He adds: ForexLive

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WH Hassett: Still sees GDP growth for the year at 3%

Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 17:25:35 GMT
Category: News
1
Outgoing  White House chairman of Council of Economic Advisers Hassett speaking He adds: ForexLive
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 17:25:17 GMT

Goldman Sachs raises US 2Q GDP tracking estimate to 1.6% from 1.2% previously

Goldman Sachs raises GDP estimate ForexLive

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Goldman Sachs raises US 2Q GDP tracking estimate to 1.6% from 1.2% previously

Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 17:25:17 GMT
Category: News
0
Goldman Sachs raises GDP estimate ForexLive
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 17:02:19 GMT

Baker Hughes oil rigs for the current week 788 vs 785 estimate

Baker Hughes rig counts for the week of June 14 Crude oil was trading at $52.75 just prior to the report.  The price is up a few cents after the report. 

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Baker Hughes oil rigs for the current week 788 vs 785 estimate

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_10-04-28.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 17:02:19 GMT
Category: News
0
Baker Hughes rig counts for the week of June 14 Crude oil was trading at $52.75 just prior to the report.  The price is up a few cents after the report. 
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 16:27:39 GMT

3

The DXY index moves above 50% retracement

The bottom this week was a good one. The DXY index (dollar index) formed a real nice bottom in trading this week.  Looking at the daily chart, the low this week stalled near the 200 day MA (green line in the chart above) AND a nice trend line as well.  Holding was bullish. Buyers leaned against the level. Today the price moved above the 100 day MA (blue line) at 97.043.  

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The DXY index moves above 50% retracement

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_8-54-04.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 16:27:39 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
3
The bottom this week was a good one. The DXY index (dollar index) formed a real nice bottom in trading this week.  Looking at the daily chart, the low this week stalled near the 200 day MA (green line in the chart above) AND a nice trend line as well.  Holding was bullish. Buyers leaned against the level. Today the price moved above the 100 day MA (blue line) at 97.043.  
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 16:14:32 GMT

31

The US dollar is hinting that the Fed won't be so dovish next week

Steady buying in the dollar today The market is having second thoughts about the Fed. The initial reaction to the May retail sales report was modest but the continued strength in the US dollar today highlights the fine line the Fed will need to walk.

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The US dollar is hinting that the Fed won't be so dovish next week

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190503/powell.png Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 16:14:32 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
31
Steady buying in the dollar today The market is having second thoughts about the Fed. The initial reaction to the May retail sales report was modest but the continued strength in the US dollar today highlights the fine line the Fed will need to walk.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 15:42:01 GMT

European stocks slip on the day but finish the week higher

Closing changes for the main European bourses: On the week: Italian stocks have had a nice bounce, despite the endless fiscal worries. ForexLive

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European stocks slip on the day but finish the week higher

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_11-40-31.png Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 15:42:01 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Closing changes for the main European bourses: On the week: Italian stocks have had a nice bounce, despite the endless fiscal worries. ForexLive
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 15:20:47 GMT

3

New York Fed GDP Nowcast 1.4% vs 1.0% a week ago

Updated tracker from the NY Fed "Positive surprises from retail sales, capacity utilization, and industrial production data drove the increase," said the New York Fed in the release.

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New York Fed GDP Nowcast 1.4% vs 1.0% a week ago

Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 15:20:47 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
3
Updated tracker from the NY Fed "Positive surprises from retail sales, capacity utilization, and industrial production data drove the increase," said the New York Fed in the release.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 15:13:06 GMT

4

The IPO market remains in a state of madness

Online pet food store jumps 75% in IPO You can't help but notice the parallels between now and the dot-com crazy. Chewy.com is an online pet food store and its shares just debuted on Nasdaq. The IPO was initially targeted in the $19-21 range but it was bumped up and priced yesterday at $22. It just opened for trading at $37.80 -- a 78% pop -- and has continued to $39.88.

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The IPO market remains in a state of madness

Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 15:13:06 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
4
Online pet food store jumps 75% in IPO You can't help but notice the parallels between now and the dot-com crazy. Chewy.com is an online pet food store and its shares just debuted on Nasdaq. The IPO was initially targeted in the $19-21 range but it was bumped up and priced yesterday at $22. It just opened for trading at $37.80 -- a 78% pop -- and has continued to $39.88.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:57:33 GMT

6

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 tracker jumps to 2.1% from 1.4%

GDP estimate higher after retail sales The Atlanta Fed now sees better signs on second quarter growth: "After this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.2 percent to 3.9 percent."

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 tracker jumps to 2.1% from 1.4%

Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:57:33 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
6
GDP estimate higher after retail sales The Atlanta Fed now sees better signs on second quarter growth: "After this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.2 percent to 3.9 percent."
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:53:18 GMT

31

Dollar continues to move higher

Dollar at day highs vs EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD The dollar continues its move higher. IN the current hourly bar, the dollar has made new highs vs the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD. That is some buying. 

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Dollar continues to move higher

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_7-54-51.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:53:18 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
31
Dollar at day highs vs EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD The dollar continues its move higher. IN the current hourly bar, the dollar has made new highs vs the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD. That is some buying. 
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:45:18 GMT

3

Gold dips on the stronger dollar

Move above topside channel trend line failed The price of gold is trading off highs but is still higher on the day.  The current price is at $1347 up above $4.55. The high reached $1358.26. The low for the day reached $1341.93.

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Gold dips on the stronger dollar

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_7-25-10aaa.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:45:18 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
3
Move above topside channel trend line failed The price of gold is trading off highs but is still higher on the day.  The current price is at $1347 up above $4.55. The high reached $1358.26. The low for the day reached $1341.93.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:33:14 GMT

3

EUR/JPY is showing increasing signs of risk aversion

EUR/JPY hits a one-week low EUR/JPY is down for the third straight day as it rolls over after setting a lower-high on Tuesday. The pair is a classic risk barometer and it's not in a great spot.

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EUR/JPY is showing increasing signs of risk aversion

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/eurjpy-daily.png Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:33:14 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
3
EUR/JPY hits a one-week low EUR/JPY is down for the third straight day as it rolls over after setting a lower-high on Tuesday. The pair is a classic risk barometer and it's not in a great spot.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:00:15 GMT

1

US business inventories for April 0.5% versus 0.5% estimate

US business inventories for April 2019 The US business inventories for April came in at 0.5% which was spot on the expectations. In April, inventories came in unchanged.

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US business inventories for April 0.5% versus 0.5% estimate

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/2019-06-14_7-01-43.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:00:15 GMT
Category: News
1
US business inventories for April 2019 The US business inventories for April came in at 0.5% which was spot on the expectations. In April, inventories came in unchanged.
Asset 24 View More
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:00:03 GMT

13

U Mich June prelim US consumer sentiment 97.9 vs 98.0 expected

Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan Those inflation numbers are going to catch the Fed's attention. The long-term number is the lowest on record.

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U Mich June prelim US consumer sentiment 97.9 vs 98.0 expected

//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190614/u-mich-5-10-year-inflation-expectations.png Adam Button
Fri 14 Jun 2019 14:00:03 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
13
Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan Those inflation numbers are going to catch the Fed's attention. The long-term number is the lowest on record.
Asset 24 View More

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