Wednesday will bring November CPI but coming up on Tuesday 11 December 2018 is November PPI

Due at 1330GMT
Preview via Barclays:
  • We forecast final demand PPI to have risen 0.1% m/m in November. We expect energy prices to have fallen sharply, while food prices likely rose for the second consecutive month. In addition, we expect a modest increase for core PPI (excluding food and energy) of 0.2% m/m. 
  • Based on our forecasts, both headline and core PPI would be up 2.6% y/y. 
  • We expect headline PPI inflation to soften from its recent trend due to a significant drag from the energy component. We expect to see this weakness in the PCE and CPI price measures as well. Nevertheless, we expect underlying domestic pressures to remain robust, consistent with high capacity utilization in the economy. 
  • As a result, we expect core producer and consumer prices to continue trending higher next year.
DB:
  • PPI data, both for headline (+0.1% vs. +0.6%) as well as core (+0.2% vs. +0.2%). 
  • However, we will be particularly focused on the PPI for selected healthcare industries. The BEA uses this series to estimate the change in prices paid by the consumer for medical services, which has about a 20% weighting in the core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation metric. The rise in healthcare inflation since its 2015 lows was a key reason why core PCE inflation has converged to the Fed's target. Similarly, the recent 55-bp plunge in the year-over-year growth rate of PCE healthcare services was the main reason why the annual growth rate of core PCE inflation fell by 16 bps (to 1.78%) in the October report. As we pointed out in our outlook piece, healthcare prices play a significant role in our inflation forecast, and thus certainly bear watching.
 

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 04:00:50 GMT

No Brexit vote Tuesday in the UK, guess we'll be watching the data then?

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No Brexit vote Tuesday in the UK, guess we'll be watching the data then?


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 04:00:50 GMT
Category: News
0


Only kidding, there will be plenty of Brexit big mouths gabbling away to shove the financial markets around; - - BUY GBP! - - SELL GBP! (your headlines may differ)

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Gaps filled, and some! EUR, AUD + all on the up
Asset 41
Tue 11 Dec 2018 03:47:58 GMT

1

Asia FX central bank intervention (sell USD, buy INR)

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Asia FX central bank intervention (sell USD, buy INR)


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181211/usd-inr-intervention.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 03:47:58 GMT
Category: Central Banks
1
Central Bank of India reportedly selling US dollars for rupee, cicra 72.35 - Selling via state-run banks (so the reports say) Most recent news from India (overnight) was the resignation of its governor Urjit Patel

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 03:27:25 GMT

NZD traders - heads up for RBNZ Governor Orr to speak at 1915GMT Tuesday

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NZD traders - heads up for RBNZ Governor Orr to speak at 1915GMT Tuesday


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 03:27:25 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian orr is testifying in front of a parliament committee - Topic is the RBNZ's annual report - Timing is Wednesday morning NZ

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 02:59:04 GMT

3

Heads up for AUD traders - stops in the spotlight on the downside

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Heads up for AUD traders - stops in the spotlight on the downside


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 02:59:04 GMT
Category: Forex Orders
3
Forwarding a bit of chatter on stop loss sellers lurking under 0.7165 and 0.7160. - Ahead of there bidders clustered 0.7170 News, politics and USD movement is a driving force for the AUD right now, more than usual, but do note these areas mentioned heading into Europe/UK trade (still a good few hours away). 

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 02:32:41 GMT

2

Bank of America strategist is most worried about global markets since 2008

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Bank of America strategist is most worried about global markets since 2008


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 02:32:41 GMT
Category: News
2
This an overnight piece via Bloomberg on views from BoA/ML, most worried about volatility in global markets since 2008's GFC - Democratic takeover of the House will weaken Donald Trump's hand on trade For 2019:

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:50:12 GMT

Japan finance minister Aso comments on FX discussions with US

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Japan finance minister Aso comments on FX discussions with US


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:50:12 GMT
Category: News
0
Japanese finance minister Aso says has agreed with the US that forex will be discussed with US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin - Says he has no recollection of US president Trump bringing up FX in talks with Japanese PM Abe

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:37:01 GMT

2

AUD likes the China - US phone call

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AUD likes the China - US phone call


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:37:01 GMT
Category: News
2
This from the Commerce Ministry in China: China Vice Premier Liu He speaks with US trade rep Despite anything and everything else going on China's Commerce Ministry have been very positive on the renewed trade talks etc. 

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:36:02 GMT

China Vice Premier Liu He speaks with US trade rep

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China Vice Premier Liu He speaks with US trade rep


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:36:02 GMT
Category: News
0
China's Commerce ministry with the 'we are talking!' news: more to come   Here we go: via Reuters headline I guess if you are that way inclined you'll not the statement comes as stcoks slide anew ….  ForexLive

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:24:37 GMT

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US stock indexes on the slide again - ES down half a percent

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US stock indexes on the slide again - ES down half a percent


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:24:37 GMT
Category: News
1
Monday was a soft session for stocks here in Asai and Tuesday is not getting off to a great beginning - Japanese stocks are lower, Nikkei 225 of 0.6% (thereabouts) All this despite Monday in the US:

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:19:14 GMT

EUR/USD view for the months ahead (spoiler: not up much)

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EUR/USD view for the months ahead (spoiler: not up much)


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:19:14 GMT
Category: News
0
A quick snippet from an overnight Rabobank note on EUR 9bolding is mine): Told ya it was a quickie

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:17:47 GMT

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8996 (vs. yesterday at 6.8693)

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PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8996 (vs. yesterday at 6.8693)


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:17:47 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China onshore yuan reference rate You know the deal right?  - PBOC allows fluctuation plus or minus 2% from this point (for the CNY that is, CNH is a no holds barred deal)  PBOC skips open market operations again today (this is for the 33rd session in a row)

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:13:24 GMT

FX option expiries on Tuesday 11 December 2018

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FX option expiries on Tuesday 11 December 2018


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 01:13:24 GMT
Category: Forex Orders
0
Forex options expiries today, these the close by and of size for the 10am NY cut EUR/USD euro amounts listed USD/JPY US$ amounts listed  GBP/USD GBP amounts listed 

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 00:30:29 GMT

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AUD data: Nov. business conditions 11 (prior 13) and business confidence 2 (prior 5)

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AUD data: Nov. business conditions 11 (prior 13) and business confidence 2 (prior 5)


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 00:30:29 GMT
Category: News
1
National Australia Bank Business Survey for November - Business conditions 11 (prior 13, revised from 12 - Business confidence 2 (prior 5, revised from 4) The October results were revised higher, a point added t each … sorta makes the November falls even worse :-D

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Tue 11 Dec 2018 00:17:08 GMT

NZ data - ANZ's monthly inflation +0.6% m/m in November

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NZ data - ANZ's monthly inflation +0.6% m/m in November


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181211/nz-cpi-inflation.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 11 Dec 2018 00:17:08 GMT
Category: News
0
For the y/y its in at 2.8% - the prior month's results were -0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y Official CPI data come from NZ only once a quarter, so this private gauge of inflation gets some attention

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Mon 10 Dec 2018 23:55:17 GMT

Huawei CFO bail - there will be no decision today, judge to resume hearing tomorrow

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Huawei CFO bail - there will be no decision today, judge to resume hearing tomorrow


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 23:55:17 GMT
Category: News
0
Earlier post: Huawei CFO bail hearing - Canada says bail should be half cash, half home equity Just updating now … Hearing goes into day 3 tomorrow Magistrates in Australia make bail decisions pretty much on the spot … errr … so I've been told that is 

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Mon 10 Dec 2018 23:47:29 GMT

8

Huawei CFO bail hearing - Canada says bail should be half cash, half home equity

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Huawei CFO bail hearing - Canada says bail should be half cash, half home equity


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 23:47:29 GMT
Category: News
8
Canadian court still deliberating as I post Amount for bail looks to be around CAD 15 million (that is the defence's proposal) Getting the CFO (and only child of Huawei founder) out on bail could well be a real-word resolution of the this issue insofar as it impacts China-US relations

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Mon 10 Dec 2018 23:23:05 GMT

ICYMI: A Chinese court has banned the sale and import of some iPhone models

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ICYMI: A Chinese court has banned the sale and import of some iPhone models


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 23:23:05 GMT
Category: News
0
Overnight news story ICYMI,  Via CNN  On a more positive US - China front, Justin had this yesterday:

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Mon 10 Dec 2018 23:06:08 GMT

1

US equities - Nomura on unusual hedge funds behaviour

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US equities - Nomura on unusual hedge funds behaviour


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 23:06:08 GMT
Category: News
1
A snippet from Nomura, this note prior to May cancelling the Brexit vote  (note, as you know by now, this has been deferred: ) UK PM May is said to pull vote on her Brexit deal

Asset 24 View More
Mon 10 Dec 2018 22:43:10 GMT

9

More on the big fiscal boost coming from Japan ahead of the sales tax hike in 2019

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More on the big fiscal boost coming from Japan ahead of the sales tax hike in 2019


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 22:43:10 GMT
Category: News
9
Japan press (Nikkei) carries an item on the expected size of the  stimulus package being considered as part of Japan's fiscal 2019 year budget -  2 trillion yen ($17.7 billion) 

Asset 24 View More
Mon 10 Dec 2018 22:31:07 GMT

4

UK PM May to meet with German Chancellor Merkel to discuss Brexit

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UK PM May to meet with German Chancellor Merkel to discuss Brexit


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 22:31:07 GMT
Category: News
4
On Tuesday. May will head on over to Berlin.  No further details at this stage.  ForexLive

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Mon 10 Dec 2018 22:30:16 GMT

Australia weekly consumer confidence: 117.5 (prior 119.5)

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Australia weekly consumer confidence: 117.5 (prior 119.5)


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 22:30:16 GMT
Category: News
0
This is the weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan survey of consumers  Comes in at 117.5 - prior 119.5 Continuing its gyrations around its average. 

Asset 24 View More
Mon 10 Dec 2018 22:00:56 GMT

3

Goldman Sachs like the Australian dollar higher

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Goldman Sachs like the Australian dollar higher


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 22:00:56 GMT
Category: News
3
GS are not gung-ho on the AUD in their latest forex client note, but do favour it: A UD/USD has had a round trip since the G20 meeting last weekend, initially rallying on the US-China 'truce' before falling on weaker GDP data and perceived dovishness from the RBA Deputy Governor Debelle. 

Asset 24 View More
Mon 10 Dec 2018 21:45:10 GMT

1

New Zealand Card Spending for November, Retail: -0.4% m/m (expected +0.3%)

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New Zealand Card Spending for November, Retail: -0.4% m/m (expected +0.3%)


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 21:45:10 GMT
Category: News
1
NZ data for retail sales in November 2018 Electronic card spending accounts for just under 70% of retail sales (core) and as such this indicator is the main one used as an indicator for such sales

Asset 24 View More
Mon 10 Dec 2018 21:37:28 GMT

17

Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 11 December 2018

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Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 11 December 2018


Eamonn Sheridan
Mon 10 Dec 2018 21:37:28 GMT
Category: News
17
Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

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