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The RBA target band for core inflation (data below following the headline results) is sustainably in a 2 to 3% band. 

Headline 0.8% q/q 
  • expected 0.8% q/q, prior 0.8% 

For the y/y, 3.0%
  • expected 3.1, prior 3.8% (lower expected mainly due to base effects)

Core inflation: 

Trimmed mean 0.7% q/q 

  • expected 0.5% q/q, prior 0.5%

 and 2.1% y/y 
  • expected 1.8% y/y, prior 1.8%

Weighted median 0.7% q/q (another measure of core inflation)
  • expected 0.5% q/q, prior 0.5%

 and 2.1% y/y 
  • expected 1.9% y/y, prior was 1.7%

The core inflation measures are both higher than expected and both now within the RBA target band (the band is 2 to 3%, so at 2.1% just above the lower bound). The trimmed mean is at its highest since 2015.

The Australian dollar has been marked up a few points on the data result. Enough to shake out a few shorts. The higher inflation will add to market expectations that the RBA will be raising the cash rate before its promised 2024 at the earliest date. 




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Wed 27 Oct 2021 00:00:39 GMT

New Zealand ANZ business survey for October, business confidence drops

Business confidence for October, -13.4, lower than in September and lower also than the flash result Activity Outlook  21.7, improved from September but not as strongly as the flash suggested

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New Zealand ANZ business survey for October, business confidence drops


Eamonn Sheridan
Wed 27 Oct 2021 00:00:39 GMT
Category: News
0


Business confidence for October, -13.4, lower than in September and lower also than the flash result Activity Outlook  21.7, improved from September but not as strongly as the flash suggested

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 23:45:44 GMT

Central bank meetings this week - the ECB's the most significant

The European Central Bank statement is Thursday 28 October 2021  A couple of earlier previews can be found here: A snippet now via Scotia: And, this via ABN Amro:

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Central bank meetings this week - the ECB's the most significant


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211026/eur-27-october-2021-chart.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 23:45:44 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
The European Central Bank statement is Thursday 28 October 2021  A couple of earlier previews can be found here: A snippet now via Scotia: And, this via ABN Amro:

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 23:20:58 GMT

Australian Q3 inflation data due today, preview

Australian Q3 inflation data is due Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 0030 GMT  - For the y/y, expected 3.1, prior 3.8% (lower expected mainly due to base effects) Core inflation: Trimmed mean

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Australian Q3 inflation data due today, preview


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 23:20:58 GMT
Category: News
0
Australian Q3 inflation data is due Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 0030 GMT  - For the y/y, expected 3.1, prior 3.8% (lower expected mainly due to base effects) Core inflation: Trimmed mean

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 23:01:46 GMT

UK data - BRC Shop Price Index for October -0.4% y/y (prior -0.5%)

British Retail Consortium monthly shop price index, a monthly measure of UK shop price inflation. British Retail Consortium said prices are set to rise further in Christmas. 

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UK data - BRC Shop Price Index for October -0.4% y/y (prior -0.5%)


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 23:01:46 GMT
Category: News
0
British Retail Consortium monthly shop price index, a monthly measure of UK shop price inflation. British Retail Consortium said prices are set to rise further in Christmas. 

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 22:34:42 GMT

Goldman Sachs update their EUR/USD forecasts

This comes via eFX, for bank trade ideas,  check out eFX Plus . For EUR/USD, GS forecasts for : For USD/JPY GS see it falling from its current levels come next year:

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Goldman Sachs update their EUR/USD forecasts


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 22:34:42 GMT
Category: News
0
This comes via eFX, for bank trade ideas,  check out eFX Plus . For EUR/USD, GS forecasts for : For USD/JPY GS see it falling from its current levels come next year:

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 22:04:47 GMT

ICYMI - Goldman Sachs CEO sees risk of higher global inflation & slower growth

Remarks from the CEO of GS, David Solomon. He was speaking at  the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

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ICYMI - Goldman Sachs CEO sees risk of higher global inflation & slower growth


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211026/goldman-sachs-solomon.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 22:04:47 GMT
Category: News
0
Remarks from the CEO of GS, David Solomon. He was speaking at  the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 21:47:21 GMT

New Zealand trade balance data for September, exports & imports both up m/m

New Zealand trade balance for September -2171m NZD (record trade deficit)

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New Zealand trade balance data for September, exports & imports both up m/m


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 21:47:21 GMT
Category: News
0
New Zealand trade balance for September -2171m NZD (record trade deficit)

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 21:40:53 GMT

Saudi Aramco warns that spare oil production capacity is shrinking, a "huge concern"

Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil exporter, its head spoke in a Bloomberg interview. OPEC+ next meet on November 4 and so far there is no indication of an increase in supply beyond what is already planned. A tight market is contributing to high prices, these comments from Saudi Aramco indicate that won't be changing much soon. 

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Saudi Aramco warns that spare oil production capacity is shrinking, a "huge concern"


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201020/oil-opec.jpg Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 21:40:53 GMT
Category: News
0
Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil exporter, its head spoke in a Bloomberg interview. OPEC+ next meet on November 4 and so far there is no indication of an increase in supply beyond what is already planned. A tight market is contributing to high prices, these comments from Saudi Aramco indicate that won't be changing much soon. 

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 21:16:07 GMT

Twitter stock market pump and dump scheme - US man arrested

A report on an alias name used, @AlexDelarge6553,  for a pump-and-dump scheme that netted more than US$1 million. The man behind the alias has been uncovered and taken into custody in Ohio.

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Twitter stock market pump and dump scheme - US man arrested


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20160926/jail.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 21:16:07 GMT
Category: News
0
A report on an alias name used, @AlexDelarge6553,  for a pump-and-dump scheme that netted more than US$1 million. The man behind the alias has been uncovered and taken into custody in Ohio.

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:50:40 GMT

Canada coronavirus - British Columbia to offer booster shots to all double dosed

The Canadian province of  British Columbia  will offer booster doses 6-8 months after receipt of their second dose. 

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Canada coronavirus - British Columbia to offer booster shots to all double dosed


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:50:40 GMT
Category: News
0
The Canadian province of  British Columbia  will offer booster doses 6-8 months after receipt of their second dose. 

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:48:19 GMT

Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 27 October 2021

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:         

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Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 27 October 2021


Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:48:19 GMT
Category: News
0
Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:         

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:36:43 GMT

Private oil survey data shows headline build in crude oil inventory

The inventory data from the private survey is out now, official data follows Wed. morning (US time) Headline build, draw at Cushing.  Numbers via Twitter:

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Private oil survey data shows headline build in crude oil inventory


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211026/oil-stocks-27-october-2021.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:36:43 GMT
Category: News
0
The inventory data from the private survey is out now, official data follows Wed. morning (US time) Headline build, draw at Cushing.  Numbers via Twitter:

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:30:53 GMT

Australia coronavirus restrictions being dismantled - flying overseas given the go ahead today

Australian Prime Minister Morrison says vaccinated travels can head off overseas from today.  Added (I was wrong on 'today') - the PM announced it today, will become valid from November 1. 

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Australia coronavirus restrictions being dismantled - flying overseas given the go ahead today


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210802/sydney-qantas.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:30:53 GMT
Category: News
0
Australian Prime Minister Morrison says vaccinated travels can head off overseas from today.  Added (I was wrong on 'today') - the PM announced it today, will become valid from November 1. 

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:03:26 GMT

S&P and NASDAQ close higher for the second consecutive day

S&P and Dow hit an intraday all-time high The final numbers are showing: After the close: Microsoft is trading modestly higher in extended hours trading while Alphabet is initially trading down about -1.08% (PS Alphabet is now trading higher by 0.6% in volatile trading) .

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S&P and NASDAQ close higher for the second consecutive day


Greg Michalowski
Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:03:26 GMT
Category: News
0
S&P and Dow hit an intraday all-time high The final numbers are showing: After the close: Microsoft is trading modestly higher in extended hours trading while Alphabet is initially trading down about -1.08% (PS Alphabet is now trading higher by 0.6% in volatile trading) .

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:00:45 GMT

On the economic calendar in Asia today - Australian Q3 CPI, China industrial profits

2145 GMT New Zealand trade balance for September  2301GMT UK data - BRC Shop Price Index y/y for September  0100 GMT New Zealand ANZ business survey for October 

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On the economic calendar in Asia today - Australian Q3 CPI, China industrial profits


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210630/china-factory.png Eamonn Sheridan
Tue 26 Oct 2021 20:00:45 GMT
Category: News
0
2145 GMT New Zealand trade balance for September  2301GMT UK data - BRC Shop Price Index y/y for September  0100 GMT New Zealand ANZ business survey for October 

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 19:55:57 GMT

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar stays bid in NY trade

Forex news for North American trade on October 26, 2021: Markets: - Gold down $13 to $1794 - WTI crude oil up 85-cents to $84.61 - US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 1.62% Cable rallied 75 pips early in European trading but gave it all back by lunch time in New York in a fall back to 1.3766. Some of that was due to a broad US dollar bid that kicked off early in New York. The underpinning of that wasn't exactly clear but flows into US tech certainly didn't hurt.

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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar stays bid in NY trade


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211026/news-wrap-ticker.png Adam Button
Tue 26 Oct 2021 19:55:57 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Forex news for North American trade on October 26, 2021: Markets: - Gold down $13 to $1794 - WTI crude oil up 85-cents to $84.61 - US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 1.62% Cable rallied 75 pips early in European trading but gave it all back by lunch time in New York in a fall back to 1.3766. Some of that was due to a broad US dollar bid that kicked off early in New York. The underpinning of that wasn't exactly clear but flows into US tech certainly didn't hurt.

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 19:41:21 GMT

Key earnings releases after the close highlighted by Microsoft and Alphabet

Other big earnings on Wednesday and Thursday   Microsoft is expected to show Q1: For Aalphabet, Q3 numbers are expected at: In addition to those two large cap bellweathers, the following companies will also release earnings after the close

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Key earnings releases after the close highlighted by Microsoft and Alphabet


Greg Michalowski
Tue 26 Oct 2021 19:41:21 GMT
Category: News
0
Other big earnings on Wednesday and Thursday   Microsoft is expected to show Q1: For Aalphabet, Q3 numbers are expected at: In addition to those two large cap bellweathers, the following companies will also release earnings after the close

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 19:31:34 GMT

More signs Democrats are close to a reconciliation deal

New target is for a deal at the end of tomorrow US Democratic House representative Beatty said the reconciliation deal is 'very close' and will include some paid family leave.

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More signs Democrats are close to a reconciliation deal


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20210915/manchin-biden.png Adam Button
Tue 26 Oct 2021 19:31:34 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
New target is for a deal at the end of tomorrow US Democratic House representative Beatty said the reconciliation deal is 'very close' and will include some paid family leave.

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 19:14:43 GMT

GBPJPY consolidates with the 100/200 hour MAs holding support at the US lows

100/200 hour MAs at 157.02 area The GBPJPY is consolidating with the 100/200 hour MAs holding support at the US session lows. The two MAs come in around 157.02. The low price for the US session cuts across at 157.009.

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GBPJPY consolidates with the 100/200 hour MAs holding support at the US lows


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211026/2021-10-26_12-07-05.jpg Greg Michalowski
Tue 26 Oct 2021 19:14:43 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
100/200 hour MAs at 157.02 area The GBPJPY is consolidating with the 100/200 hour MAs holding support at the US session lows. The two MAs come in around 157.02. The low price for the US session cuts across at 157.009.

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 18:47:09 GMT

Oil buyers turn up once again, crude settles 1% higher

Tough to keep oil down Today's WTI crude oil settlement was +0.89, or 1.09%, to $84.65. That's a new seven-year high close. Later we will get the API weekly inventory report and one of the main topics of interest will be US inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma. The main storage hub is being rapidly drawn down, in part due to the backwardation in the crude curve.

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Oil buyers turn up once again, crude settles 1% higher


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211026/oil-daily.png Adam Button
Tue 26 Oct 2021 18:47:09 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Tough to keep oil down Today's WTI crude oil settlement was +0.89, or 1.09%, to $84.65. That's a new seven-year high close. Later we will get the API weekly inventory report and one of the main topics of interest will be US inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma. The main storage hub is being rapidly drawn down, in part due to the backwardation in the crude curve.

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 18:28:03 GMT

Does the US need to be the global reserve currency?

The case from DoubleLine Jeff Gundlach at DoubleLine often makes the case for US dollar weakness but we rarely get the full fleshed out view. In this recent video, DoubleLine International Fixed Income portfolio manager Bill Campbell fleshes out the case for long-term USD selling. The segment starts at 48:00:

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Does the US need to be the global reserve currency?


Adam Button
Tue 26 Oct 2021 18:28:03 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
The case from DoubleLine Jeff Gundlach at DoubleLine often makes the case for US dollar weakness but we rarely get the full fleshed out view. In this recent video, DoubleLine International Fixed Income portfolio manager Bill Campbell fleshes out the case for long-term USD selling. The segment starts at 48:00:

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 17:50:28 GMT

The AUDUSD retests the 100 hour MA

100 hour MA at 0.74923 The AUDUSD  successfully tested its 100 hour moving average in the European morning session and bounced. The bounce took the price up to test a swing area between 0.7511 and 0.7522 ahead of the high from last week at 0.75457. That high was the highest level since July 6.

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The AUDUSD retests the 100 hour MA


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211026/2021-10-26_10-45-31.jpg Greg Michalowski
Tue 26 Oct 2021 17:50:28 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
100 hour MA at 0.74923 The AUDUSD  successfully tested its 100 hour moving average in the European morning session and bounced. The bounce took the price up to test a swing area between 0.7511 and 0.7522 ahead of the high from last week at 0.75457. That high was the highest level since July 6.

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 17:25:02 GMT

Citi's month end fixing model points to USD selling

US dollar strong so far this week For bank trade ideas, . " where local equities have done even better than the US ones, because we assume foreigners hold more US assets and tend to hedge them to a greater degree," Citi notes.

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Citi's month end fixing model points to USD selling


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211026/dxy-chart.png Adam Button
Tue 26 Oct 2021 17:25:02 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
US dollar strong so far this week For bank trade ideas, . " where local equities have done even better than the US ones, because we assume foreigners hold more US assets and tend to hedge them to a greater degree," Citi notes.

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Tue 26 Oct 2021 17:03:50 GMT

The U.S. Treasury sells $60 billion of two year notes at high yield of 0.481%

WI was at 0.483% The U.S. Treasury sells $60 billion of two year notes at a high yield of 0.481% Highlights: 

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The U.S. Treasury sells $60 billion of two year notes at high yield of 0.481%


Greg Michalowski
Tue 26 Oct 2021 17:03:50 GMT
Category: News
0
WI was at 0.483% The U.S. Treasury sells $60 billion of two year notes at a high yield of 0.481% Highlights: 

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