GMTAuthor: Adam Button

3

Delinquent debt tops $166 billion

Delinquent debt tops $166 billion

Bloomberg today writes about the record $166.4 billion in US student debt that is more than 90 days behind in payments or in default.

This is a terrifying number for the long-term health of the US economy. US student debt can't be cast aside in personal bankruptcy. The debt is a serious drag on the credit and spending power of the people carrying it. Large arrears likely mean the people holding it can't buy a home and are unlikely to form families.

What's equally terrifying is that this rise has come at a positive time in the US economy, with unemployment at 4%. What happens in the next recession?
ForexLive

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Sat 16 Feb 2019 16:34:03 GMT

Pence says it's time for Europe to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal

Pence criticizes Europe Merkel responded: The EU and US certainly aren't growing closer and this week's data that showed a larger EU trade surplus with the US isn't going to put Trump in a good mood. ForexLive

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Pence says it's time for Europe to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal


Adam Button
Sat 16 Feb 2019 16:34:03 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0


Pence criticizes Europe Merkel responded: The EU and US certainly aren't growing closer and this week's data that showed a larger EU trade surplus with the US isn't going to put Trump in a good mood. ForexLive

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White House has found $2.7B in funding that could go to border wall
Asset 41
Fri 15 Feb 2019 22:36:13 GMT

2

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar falls as safety flows ease. Stocks are happy.

Forex news for NY trading on February 15, 2019 In other markets: - Spot gold is up $8.88 or 0.68% at $1321.46 - WTI crude oil futures are up $1.34 or 2.46% at $55.75 In the US debt market today, yields rebounded in the shorter end of the yield curve. Out the curve the gains were less.  

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar falls as safety flows ease. Stocks are happy.


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_14-17-59.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 22:36:13 GMT
Category: News
2
Forex news for NY trading on February 15, 2019 In other markets: - Spot gold is up $8.88 or 0.68% at $1321.46 - WTI crude oil futures are up $1.34 or 2.46% at $55.75 In the US debt market today, yields rebounded in the shorter end of the yield curve. Out the curve the gains were less.  

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 21:05:41 GMT

2

US stocks finish strong into the long weekend

Closing changes for the main US equity markets: That's 8 weeks in a row of gains for the Dow and Nasdaq, which is the most since November 2017. The S&P 500 has risen 3 weeks in a row. Banks helped the Dow outperform on Friday.

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US stocks finish strong into the long weekend


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/spx-weekly.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Feb 2019 21:05:41 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
2
Closing changes for the main US equity markets: That's 8 weeks in a row of gains for the Dow and Nasdaq, which is the most since November 2017. The S&P 500 has risen 3 weeks in a row. Banks helped the Dow outperform on Friday.

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 20:35:34 GMT

4

Reminder: It's a holiday in the US and Canada on Monday

Long weekend coming up It's President's Day in the US and Family Day in Canada so it will be a quiet start to the week. Stock markets are closed in the US and the bond market is de-factor closed.

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Reminder: It's a holiday in the US and Canada on Monday


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_15-34-41.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Feb 2019 20:35:34 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
4
Long weekend coming up It's President's Day in the US and Family Day in Canada so it will be a quiet start to the week. Stock markets are closed in the US and the bond market is de-factor closed.

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 20:01:51 GMT

3

Fed's Daly: If economy evolves as I expect, there isn't a case for a hike this year

Comments from the Fed's Daly in the WSJ: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly that she isn't ready to make a formal call on interest rates but is certainly leaning towards the sidelines.

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Fed's Daly: If economy evolves as I expect, there isn't a case for a hike this year


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181112/mary-daly.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Feb 2019 20:01:51 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
3
Comments from the Fed's Daly in the WSJ: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly that she isn't ready to make a formal call on interest rates but is certainly leaning towards the sidelines.

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 19:52:57 GMT

Crude oil futures settle the week at $55.59

End up $1.18 or 2.17% The price of crude oil futures have settled the week at $55.59. That is up $1.18 or 2.17%.   Last week, the price closed near $52.71. The low for the week was on Monday at $51.23. The high extended to $55.72 today.    

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Crude oil futures settle the week at $55.59


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_12-49-42.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 19:52:57 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
End up $1.18 or 2.17% The price of crude oil futures have settled the week at $55.59. That is up $1.18 or 2.17%.   Last week, the price closed near $52.71. The low for the week was on Monday at $51.23. The high extended to $55.72 today.    

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 19:28:21 GMT

USD is now the weakest of the majors

Edging out the CHF and the JPY as the weakest The dollar's run to new session lows against the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD have helped to push the USD to the weakest of the major pairs.   

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USD is now the weakest of the majors


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_12-20-05.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 19:28:21 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Edging out the CHF and the JPY as the weakest The dollar's run to new session lows against the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD have helped to push the USD to the weakest of the major pairs.   

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 19:05:17 GMT

GBPUSD runs above 100 day MA too

First test held, but cracking through now The GBPUSD made another run higher. This one, cracked the 100 day MA at 1.2879 and raced up tot he 200 hour MA at 1.28963.

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GBPUSD runs above 100 day MA too


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_12-03-42.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 19:05:17 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
First test held, but cracking through now The GBPUSD made another run higher. This one, cracked the 100 day MA at 1.2879 and raced up tot he 200 hour MA at 1.28963.

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 18:57:05 GMT

2

EURUSD takes off as stops triggered

Breaks above trend line and 100 hour MA The EURUSD has taken off to the upside.   The catalyst seems to be a break of the trend line at 1.1281 and the 100 hour MA at 1.12891. Those technical tools, held the pair in check yesterday and earlier today.  The high yesterday reached 1.1309. Above that and the 200 hour MA at 1.13228 will be the next target.

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EURUSD takes off as stops triggered


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_11-55-27.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 18:57:05 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
2
Breaks above trend line and 100 hour MA The EURUSD has taken off to the upside.   The catalyst seems to be a break of the trend line at 1.1281 and the 100 hour MA at 1.12891. Those technical tools, held the pair in check yesterday and earlier today.  The high yesterday reached 1.1309. Above that and the 200 hour MA at 1.13228 will be the next target.

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 18:28:02 GMT

6

Key economic releases for Feb 18-22 week

US still working through the backlog of data Monday is a holiday in NY and a light calendar day world wide.  Other than that, the US is still working through the backlog of data.  So some of the releases are still "old news". 

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Key economic releases for Feb 18-22 week


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 18:28:02 GMT
Category: News
6
US still working through the backlog of data Monday is a holiday in NY and a light calendar day world wide.  Other than that, the US is still working through the backlog of data.  So some of the releases are still "old news". 

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 18:02:18 GMT

Baker Hughes oil rigs 857 vs 854 last week

Baker Hughes rig count for Feb 15 The weekly Baker Hughes rig count is showing: Oil rigs are up for the 2nd week in a row: ForexLive

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Baker Hughes oil rigs 857 vs 854 last week


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_11-02-40.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 18:02:18 GMT
Category: News
0
Baker Hughes rig count for Feb 15 The weekly Baker Hughes rig count is showing: Oil rigs are up for the 2nd week in a row: ForexLive

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 17:59:31 GMT

It's Friday, so that means Baker Hughes rig count will be released at 1 PM

Last week Last week: Crude oilis trading at $55.52 ForexLive

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It's Friday, so that means Baker Hughes rig count will be released at 1 PM


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 17:59:31 GMT
Category: News
0
Last week Last week: Crude oilis trading at $55.52 ForexLive

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 17:53:29 GMT

By the way... it is a 3-day weekend in the USA

President's Day will be observed on Monday The US will observe Presidentd Day on Monday. That means government offices will be shuttered (no it is not because of the budget this time unless there is a weekend shock on the budget deal) as well as banks, the US stock and bond markets. The forex market will not sleep. It will be open but you can expect lighter activity. 

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By the way... it is a 3-day weekend in the USA


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 17:53:29 GMT
Category: News
0
President's Day will be observed on Monday The US will observe Presidentd Day on Monday. That means government offices will be shuttered (no it is not because of the budget this time unless there is a weekend shock on the budget deal) as well as banks, the US stock and bond markets. The forex market will not sleep. It will be open but you can expect lighter activity. 

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Feb 2019 17:28:07 GMT

GBPUSD moves back toward 100 day MA

Move higher continues The GBPUSD's move higher his continuing with the pair approaching its 100 day MA. The price of the GBPUSD was bid up into the London 4 PM fixing. The move has taken the price back above the 50% of the 2019 range at 1.2834, above last week's low and 100 hour MA at 1.2852 and is now looking toward the 100 day MA at 1.2879. The high just reached 1.2878. 

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GBPUSD moves back toward 100 day MA


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_10-26-44.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 17:28:07 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Move higher continues The GBPUSD's move higher his continuing with the pair approaching its 100 day MA. The price of the GBPUSD was bid up into the London 4 PM fixing. The move has taken the price back above the 50% of the 2019 range at 1.2834, above last week's low and 100 hour MA at 1.2852 and is now looking toward the 100 day MA at 1.2879. The high just reached 1.2878. 

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 17:02:56 GMT

Fed's Bostic: Policy a little short of neutral but in no rush to move policy

Atlanta Fed Pres. speaks to reporters ForexLive

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Fed's Bostic: Policy a little short of neutral but in no rush to move policy


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 17:02:56 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Atlanta Fed Pres. speaks to reporters ForexLive

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:58:05 GMT

European shares end the day (and week) with solid gains

German Dax up 1.9% on the day The week is ending with impressive gains for the major indices. ECBs Coeure said their is the possibility of another round of long-term loans to banks.  On the other side he said, the slowdown is worse than thought. He also said  the ECB that targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) are being discussed.   The market is hopeful that ECB help may be on the way.

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European shares end the day (and week) with solid gains


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_9-55-21.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:58:05 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
German Dax up 1.9% on the day The week is ending with impressive gains for the major indices. ECBs Coeure said their is the possibility of another round of long-term loans to banks.  On the other side he said, the slowdown is worse than thought. He also said  the ECB that targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) are being discussed.   The market is hopeful that ECB help may be on the way.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:25:10 GMT

7

Pres. Trump: There is a possibility to push back the trade deadline

Would not raise tariffs if there is an extension - Growth is contributing to the lower trade deficit - Obama was ready to start a big war with North Korea - I have a great relationship with Kim Jong Un. The President's announcement of a national emergency on the border security, ended up as a full blown pres conference on all sorts of topics.  He said talks with China were going well, but said at one point, he loves tariffs as it brings billions and billiions of dollars into the  US. 

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Pres. Trump: There is a possibility to push back the trade deadline


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:25:10 GMT
Category: News
7
Would not raise tariffs if there is an extension - Growth is contributing to the lower trade deficit - Obama was ready to start a big war with North Korea - I have a great relationship with Kim Jong Un. The President's announcement of a national emergency on the border security, ended up as a full blown pres conference on all sorts of topics.  He said talks with China were going well, but said at one point, he loves tariffs as it brings billions and billiions of dollars into the  US. 

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:20:08 GMT

NY Fed Nowcast estimate falls to 2.2% from 2.4% last week.

Retail sales the big decliner for the week. Meanwhile, their estimate for the 1Q was slashed to 1.1% from 2.17% last week.   ForexLive

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NY Fed Nowcast estimate falls to 2.2% from 2.4% last week.


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_9-17-15.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:20:08 GMT
Category: News
0
Retail sales the big decliner for the week. Meanwhile, their estimate for the 1Q was slashed to 1.1% from 2.17% last week.   ForexLive

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:14:50 GMT

19

Pres. Trump: I happen to love tariffs. We are taking in billions from tariffs

Does not say if he will lower tariffs on China - He is thinking of having Democratic leaders to have a say in Chinese trade talks - Would like to see major immigration reform, not just a wall The stocks have moved lower since the comment on Pres. Trumps love for tariffs. 

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Pres. Trump: I happen to love tariffs. We are taking in billions from tariffs


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:14:50 GMT
Category: News
19
Does not say if he will lower tariffs on China - He is thinking of having Democratic leaders to have a say in Chinese trade talks - Would like to see major immigration reform, not just a wall The stocks have moved lower since the comment on Pres. Trumps love for tariffs. 

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:02:22 GMT

4

GBPUSD moves to new session highs ahead of the fixing

Breaks back above the 50% midpoint of 2019 range ForexLive

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GBPUSD moves to new session highs ahead of the fixing


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/2019-02-15_8-58-34.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 16:02:22 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
4
Breaks back above the 50% midpoint of 2019 range ForexLive

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Fri 15 Feb 2019 15:49:56 GMT

Goldman Sachs lowers GDP tracker to 1.9% from 2%

Stepping down the 4Q estimates Goldman Sachs inches down its 4Q GP tracker to 1.9% from 2%.   The Atlanta Fed's most recent estimate plunged to 1.5% this week. The NY Fed willl be releasing their estimate today.  Last week, the estimate was 2.41%.  It will likely go down in response to the weaker economic statistics this week highlighted by the shortfall in retail sales for December.

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Goldman Sachs lowers GDP tracker to 1.9% from 2%


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 15:49:56 GMT
Category: News
0
Stepping down the 4Q estimates Goldman Sachs inches down its 4Q GP tracker to 1.9% from 2%.   The Atlanta Fed's most recent estimate plunged to 1.5% this week. The NY Fed willl be releasing their estimate today.  Last week, the estimate was 2.41%.  It will likely go down in response to the weaker economic statistics this week highlighted by the shortfall in retail sales for December.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Feb 2019 15:44:56 GMT

8

White House Mulvaney: Pres.Trump declares national emergency on border. Says Trump will have $8B for border wall

White House Mulvaney and Pres. Trump speaking. Pres. Trump and WH Mulvaney are speaking about China and border wall ForexLive

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White House Mulvaney: Pres.Trump declares national emergency on border. Says Trump will have $8B for border wall


Greg Michalowski
Fri 15 Feb 2019 15:44:56 GMT
Category: News
8
White House Mulvaney and Pres. Trump speaking. Pres. Trump and WH Mulvaney are speaking about China and border wall ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Feb 2019 15:40:53 GMT

2

Trump: China talks are going extremely well

No mistaking that headline Lots of optimism to go around today and you can see it in the stock market. "Trade talks in China are going well, but who knows what that means," was an exact quote.

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Trump: China talks are going extremely well


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/trump.png Adam Button
Fri 15 Feb 2019 15:40:53 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
2
No mistaking that headline Lots of optimism to go around today and you can see it in the stock market. "Trade talks in China are going well, but who knows what that means," was an exact quote.

Asset 24 View More
Fri 15 Feb 2019 15:36:49 GMT

How to trade market sentiment

Understand the mood of the market Emotions are the key to understanding financial markets. However, it's tough to make rational decisions based on them. Even if you think you read your emotions or other peoples emotions, you may get lost in trying to comprehend the feelings of the crowd. And the market sentiment is the emotions of millions of traders around the world. If you'd like to know more about it, read the guide by The behavior of the masses works differently from the mechanism that determines individual actions. The discovery is quite old and well described in a book by a French anthropologist Gustave Le Bon in 1895 "The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind." The author states some of the characteristics of the psychology of the crowds: "impulsiveness, irritability, incapacity to reason, the absence of judgment of the critical spirit, the exaggeration of sentiments, and others..."

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How to trade market sentiment


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190215/simplefx1.jpg SimpleFX
Fri 15 Feb 2019 15:36:49 GMT
Author: SimpleFX
Category: Education
0
Understand the mood of the market Emotions are the key to understanding financial markets. However, it's tough to make rational decisions based on them. Even if you think you read your emotions or other peoples emotions, you may get lost in trying to comprehend the feelings of the crowd. And the market sentiment is the emotions of millions of traders around the world. If you'd like to know more about it, read the guide by The behavior of the masses works differently from the mechanism that determines individual actions. The discovery is quite old and well described in a book by a French anthropologist Gustave Le Bon in 1895 "The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind." The author states some of the characteristics of the psychology of the crowds: "impulsiveness, irritability, incapacity to reason, the absence of judgment of the critical spirit, the exaggeration of sentiments, and others..."

Asset 24 View More

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