Forex news for North American trade on April 18, 2019:

Markets:
  • Gold up $1.50 to $1275
  • WTI crude up 30-cents to $64.06
  • US 10-year yields down 3.4 bps to 2.56%
  • S&P 500 up 5 points to 2905
  • JPY leads, NZD lags
It was a heavy news day as Friday's scheduled releases were moved up because of the holiday. The big one was US retail sales and all the details were at least as strong as the headline. With the gain, we've now erased the declines from the terrible report in December and the market is more upbeat about US consumers.

That translated into US dollar strength but it wasn't exactly screaming higher. It made steady gains across the board and hit sessions highs in the New York afternoon against GBP, AUD and EUR.

The euro was pressured by another soft German PMI sparking a quick fall to 1.1250 from 1.1300. The selling continued down to 1.1230 in New York but it was generally subdued.

Cable got the benefit of a strong retail sales report but it didn't take advantage and instead sank a half-cent on the dollar. That may be accounting to flows ahead of the long weekend. Note that the UK is closed Monday.

Canada is also closed Monday and CAD bulls will be happy to see it after a disappointing finish to the week despite a small gain in crude. Canadian retail sales were strong on the headline but a big negative revision to ex-autos took the shine off the report. USD/CAD hit 1.3400 to erase the CPI drop from earlier in the week the chopped sideways to finish near 1.3388.

AUD and NZD both stumbled to the finish line as the US dollar gained. The effects of Chinese GDP have been fading and NZD/JPY is back near the post-CPI lows. Last Friday, AUD/JPY broke out of its 2019 channel to the upside but it's faded back down to the old range top near 80.00.

Have a great long weekend. See you Monday.
Forex news for North American trade on April 18, 2019:

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 20:20:58 GMT

US stocks head to the long weekend after a modest rally

Closing changes for the main US equity indexes ForexLive

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US stocks head to the long weekend after a modest rally


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/spx-weekly.png Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 20:20:58 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0


Closing changes for the main US equity indexes ForexLive

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 19:56:52 GMT

1

Reminder: Friday is a holiday in much of the world

It's Good Friday It's a holiday where we are and markets will be very quiet in the day ahead. We will keep an eye on things but won't have many updates unless something significant happens.

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Reminder: Friday is a holiday in much of the world


Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 19:56:52 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
1
It's Good Friday It's a holiday where we are and markets will be very quiet in the day ahead. We will keep an eye on things but won't have many updates unless something significant happens.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 19:27:59 GMT

1

US stocks climb to the best levels of the day

Solid finish for US equities  The US equity market is closed on Friday so this is the last chance to trade for the week. Monday is a holiday in Canada and the UK but not the USA.

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US stocks climb to the best levels of the day


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/tsx-daily.png Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 19:27:59 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
1
Solid finish for US equities  The US equity market is closed on Friday so this is the last chance to trade for the week. Monday is a holiday in Canada and the UK but not the USA.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 18:56:47 GMT

NZD/JPY shorts were the best trade this week

Rough week for the kiwi The FX market is certainly flashing different signals than equities. The yen was the top performer this week in a potential sign of risk aversion. That said, the Swiss franc was near the pile so flows are likely a bigger part of the story here than fundamentals.

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NZD/JPY shorts were the best trade this week


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/2019-04-18_14-45-41.png Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 18:56:47 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Rough week for the kiwi The FX market is certainly flashing different signals than equities. The yen was the top performer this week in a potential sign of risk aversion. That said, the Swiss franc was near the pile so flows are likely a bigger part of the story here than fundamentals.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 18:16:18 GMT

ITC says USMCA trade deal would raise US GDP by 0.35%

Comments on the trade deal I'm curious to see the impact on Mexico and Canada although modeling out these things is always a bit of a lark. ForexLive

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ITC says USMCA trade deal would raise US GDP by 0.35%


Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 18:16:18 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Comments on the trade deal I'm curious to see the impact on Mexico and Canada although modeling out these things is always a bit of a lark. ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 17:30:46 GMT

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Why the surprise jump in Canadian inflation could continue

Core inflation rose on Thursday Canadian core inflation had a surprise this week and economists are taking a second look. One area that has their attention is rents.

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Why the surprise jump in Canadian inflation could continue


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/canada-cpi-trim.png Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 17:30:46 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
4
Core inflation rose on Thursday Canadian core inflation had a surprise this week and economists are taking a second look. One area that has their attention is rents.

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 17:10:21 GMT

3

GBPUSD below lower trend line on the hourly

Approaches the 200 day MA The GBPUSD has moved below a lower channel trend line currently at 1.2989.  Stay below keeps the sellers more in control.  

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GBPUSD below lower trend line on the hourly


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/2019-04-18_10-01-09.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Apr 2019 17:10:21 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
3
Approaches the 200 day MA The GBPUSD has moved below a lower channel trend line currently at 1.2989.  Stay below keeps the sellers more in control.  

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 17:05:18 GMT

Fed's Kaplan: I'm getting more confident about 2019 growth outlook

Return of the hawks GDP trackers have been rising to around 2.5% for Q1 after starting out under 1%. ForexLive

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Fed's Kaplan: I'm getting more confident about 2019 growth outlook


Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 17:05:18 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Return of the hawks GDP trackers have been rising to around 2.5% for Q1 after starting out under 1%. ForexLive

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 17:01:56 GMT

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Baker Hughes US oil rig count 825 vs 833 prior

Weekly US oil and gas drilling rigs from Baker Hughes ForexLive

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Baker Hughes US oil rig count 825 vs 833 prior


Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 17:01:56 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
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Weekly US oil and gas drilling rigs from Baker Hughes ForexLive

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 16:40:29 GMT

Fed's Bostic: Rates may go up or down but we are preserving optionality

Bostic in Florida That sounds decidedly neutral. It also sounds like his comments earlier this month so there's nothing new here. ForexLive

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Fed's Bostic: Rates may go up or down but we are preserving optionality


Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 16:40:29 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Bostic in Florida That sounds decidedly neutral. It also sounds like his comments earlier this month so there's nothing new here. ForexLive

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 16:28:58 GMT

4

Euro, pound and Aussie all fall to fresh session lows

Retail sales is a USD tailwind The big story of the day in the economy is the improvement in US retail sales and the continued trouble in German manufacturing. That's sank the euro by 63 pips to 1.1233. It's also giving the US dollar a broad lift and it's carving out fresh session highs against the pound and Australian dollar as well.

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Euro, pound and Aussie all fall to fresh session lows


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/cable-daily.png Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 16:28:58 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
4
Retail sales is a USD tailwind The big story of the day in the economy is the improvement in US retail sales and the continued trouble in German manufacturing. That's sank the euro by 63 pips to 1.1233. It's also giving the US dollar a broad lift and it's carving out fresh session highs against the pound and Australian dollar as well.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 16:28:06 GMT

28

New lows for the EURUSD

Looks to test the April 10 low The EURUSD is trading to a new session low. The price has just reached 1.1230. The next target is the low from April 10 at 1.12291. Below that the pair will look toward the 1.1209-156.  

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New lows for the EURUSD


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/2019-04-18_9-26-01.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Apr 2019 16:28:06 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
28
Looks to test the April 10 low The EURUSD is trading to a new session low. The price has just reached 1.1230. The next target is the low from April 10 at 1.12291. Below that the pair will look toward the 1.1209-156.  

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:55:15 GMT

New Zealand dollar nears the post-CPI low as bounce fades

New Zealand dollar down 50 pips The New Zealand dollar is down a half-cent to 0.6677. NZD/USD fell below the mid-January lows after Q1 CPI was at just 1.5% compared to 1.9% previously and 1.7% expected. The market is now pricing in a 50% chance of an RBNZ cut on May 8, rising to 78% by the end of September.

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New Zealand dollar nears the post-CPI low as bounce fades


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/nzdusd-daily.png Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:55:15 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
New Zealand dollar down 50 pips The New Zealand dollar is down a half-cent to 0.6677. NZD/USD fell below the mid-January lows after Q1 CPI was at just 1.5% compared to 1.9% previously and 1.7% expected. The market is now pricing in a 50% chance of an RBNZ cut on May 8, rising to 78% by the end of September.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:47:50 GMT

European share end with mixed results on the day

Yields are lower today The European shares are ending the day higher on the day despite weaker Flash PMI data In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:

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European share end with mixed results on the day


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/2019-04-18_8-53-04.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:47:50 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Yields are lower today The European shares are ending the day higher on the day despite weaker Flash PMI data In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:34:13 GMT

US sells 5-year TIPS at +0.515%

Results of the TIPS auction ForexLive

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US sells 5-year TIPS at +0.515%


Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:34:13 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
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Results of the TIPS auction ForexLive

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:33:43 GMT

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Pinterest and Zoom are open...and each are zooming higher

Open above the IPO prices After Lyft IPO failed (and is trading lower since the IPO) the IPOs of Pinterest and Zoom were hoped to be better for investors. Both are now open and both are trading well above the IPO prices. 

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Pinterest and Zoom are open...and each are zooming higher


Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:33:43 GMT
Category: News
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Open above the IPO prices After Lyft IPO failed (and is trading lower since the IPO) the IPOs of Pinterest and Zoom were hoped to be better for investors. Both are now open and both are trading well above the IPO prices. 

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:18:26 GMT

Atlanta Fed GDPNow rises to 2.8% from 2.4% prior

Better Retail Sales boost GDP The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q1 US GDP growth rose to 2.8% from 2.4% as reported yesterday (that was up from 2.1% previously). 

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow rises to 2.8% from 2.4% prior


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/2019-04-18_8-16-39.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:18:26 GMT
Category: News
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Better Retail Sales boost GDP The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q1 US GDP growth rose to 2.8% from 2.4% as reported yesterday (that was up from 2.1% previously). 

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:09:05 GMT

J.P. Morgan Chase raises GDP forecast to 2.9% from 2.1% previously

The US GDP for the 1st quarter will be released on  The Atlanta Fed will also release their GDP sometime soon. Yesterday, they raised growth to 2.4% from 2.3%

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J.P. Morgan Chase raises GDP forecast to 2.9% from 2.1% previously


Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:09:05 GMT
Category: News
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The US GDP for the 1st quarter will be released on  The Atlanta Fed will also release their GDP sometime soon. Yesterday, they raised growth to 2.4% from 2.3%

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Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:04:53 GMT

44

Mueller report published

It's out Here's the full, albeit partly-redacted, text. Headlines: There is a great deal of focus on Trump but by now that's old news. What's notable to me, and could have some repercussions for RUB is the conclusion that it was Russian military intelligence that was behind the hacking and leaks.

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Mueller report published


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/mueller-report1.png Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 15:04:53 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
44
It's out Here's the full, albeit partly-redacted, text. Headlines: There is a great deal of focus on Trump but by now that's old news. What's notable to me, and could have some repercussions for RUB is the conclusion that it was Russian military intelligence that was behind the hacking and leaks.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 14:48:54 GMT

2

USDCAD back up to the familiar ceiling area.

Sellers leaning again... The USDCAD's ups and downs continue ().   As per the post from yesterday, the run lower yesterday, fell below support at 1.32966 on the way to 1.3275 area before snapping higher. Getting above the 100 and 200 hour MA was an intermediate hurdle/bias area for the bulls and bears.  Today, the price based at both those lines before moving higher.

View More

USDCAD back up to the familiar ceiling area.


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/2019-04-18_7-39-20.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Apr 2019 14:48:54 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
2
Sellers leaning again... The USDCAD's ups and downs continue ().   As per the post from yesterday, the run lower yesterday, fell below support at 1.32966 on the way to 1.3275 area before snapping higher. Getting above the 100 and 200 hour MA was an intermediate hurdle/bias area for the bulls and bears.  Today, the price based at both those lines before moving higher.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 14:22:16 GMT

7

Scope for short covering in EUR/USD - SocGen

What's next for the euro Societe Generale Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and still sees a scope for limited near-term gains on short-covering.  ". While the G2 currencies are locked in place, central bankers are making sure that a repeat of 2008 is delayed and supporting global asset prices more than global growth. That's going to end (badly) in due course but for now, using negative-rate currencies to fund longs in (slightly) higher-yielding ones continues to pay dividends," SocGen notes. 

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Scope for short covering in EUR/USD - SocGen


Adam Button
Thu 18 Apr 2019 14:22:16 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
7
What's next for the euro Societe Generale Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and still sees a scope for limited near-term gains on short-covering.  ". While the G2 currencies are locked in place, central bankers are making sure that a repeat of 2008 is delayed and supporting global asset prices more than global growth. That's going to end (badly) in due course but for now, using negative-rate currencies to fund longs in (slightly) higher-yielding ones continues to pay dividends," SocGen notes. 

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 14:11:29 GMT

2

The S&P and Nasdaq in the red now

Some negative ticks in the major indices The gains in the S&P and the Nasdaq have eroded. There is no real news. Data today started strong with the retail sales and jobless claims stronger than expectations, but the Markit PMI data was weaker.  

View More

The S&P and Nasdaq in the red now


Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Apr 2019 14:11:29 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
2
Some negative ticks in the major indices The gains in the S&P and the Nasdaq have eroded. There is no real news. Data today started strong with the retail sales and jobless claims stronger than expectations, but the Markit PMI data was weaker.  

Asset 24 View More
Thu 18 Apr 2019 14:06:10 GMT

1

USDCHF moves to the highest level since March 2017

Above 2018 high at 1.01276 The USDCHF moved above the 2018 high at 1.01276 and the March 2019 high at 1.01236.  The high reached 1.0137. It is currently trading at 1.0130.  

View More

USDCHF moves to the highest level since March 2017


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190418/2019-04-18_6-57-50.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 18 Apr 2019 14:06:10 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
1
Above 2018 high at 1.01276 The USDCHF moved above the 2018 high at 1.01276 and the March 2019 high at 1.01236.  The high reached 1.0137. It is currently trading at 1.0130.  

Asset 24 View More

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