GMTAuthor: Giles Coghlan

2

Production cuts agreed.

What's this? Giles posting outside of his normal window? Don't worry folks - I haven't gone rogue on the team. I am posting at funny times for a few days due to travelling to Dubai to take a teaching programme for beginner traders. So, the odd post may pop up at strange times.


Well, OPEC have met and the end result is a total production cut of 1.2mln bpd from October's levels.  OPEC producers will be making up 800mln bpd and non-Opec members will be making 400 mln bpd. The cuts are due to start in January for an initial 6 month period. The current plan is for the deal to be reviewed in April 2019. As many of you are aware the final OPEC decision was delayed last week and it was Iran that showed a reluctance to support the deal as they are still technically under US sanctions.  In the end their insistence won out and, alongside Libya and Venezuela, they were exempted from the need to make cuts


Another big player in the deal was Russia who initially stated that they would only cut a maximum of 150mln bpd. In the end they agreed to cut production by 2% from October levels which worked out at around 200mln+ bpd production cut. Saudi Arabia , the main player on the pack, are projecting to reduce their production considerably, In November they hit over 11mln bpd and they are predicting reducing that to around 10.2mln bpd  for January.


Oil rallied on the announcement of the cuts , initially with relief that the deal did not collapse. However, the last time OPEC agreed cuts it supported the Oil market. This is despite the fact that compliance is a very difficult thing to police (nay, impossible) and non-compliance is so profitable So, I am getting a sense of deja vu for the support of near term Oil prices. Obviously the narrative of slowing demand via a slow down in Global growth as a fall out in the US and China trade 'war' may still play out. Also, what will Trump think of what OPEC has done? He was jubilant when Oil was falling, but how will he respond if and when oil prices start start creeping up? For now, I am  optimistic on rising oil prices , subject to any new surprises of course and the review in Apri.





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Sun 9 Dec 2018 19:16:14 GMT

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Monday morning FX - 10 December 2018 - foreign exchange prices, early indications

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Sun 9 Dec 2018 19:16:14 GMT
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Welcome to the beginning of the new forex week, here is a guide to indicative early currency rates And, of course, the usual Monday morning caveat, market liquidity is very thinPrice guide:I'll be back soon with weekend headlines.

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Sun 9 Dec 2018 15:54:53 GMT

WSJ: Details of US/China to include large purchases in coming weeks

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Sun 9 Dec 2018 15:54:53 GMT
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Sat 8 Dec 2018 06:48:00 GMT
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China trade balance (Nov.), exports and imports fall from Oct. and miss median estimates

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Sat 8 Dec 2018 03:24:19 GMT
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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs data weaker than expectations. Stock tank

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US stocks struggle once again. Major indices down -2.2% to -3.05% on the day

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ECB meeting also on the schedule.Key events and releases Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday ForexLive

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Don't expect CFTC workers bees to burn the midnight oil to get COT report out today

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Fri 7 Dec 2018 20:30:17 GMT
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Pres. Bush's memorial service delays the release until Monday If you are looking for the weekly commitment of traders reports from the CFTC, you can forget about it. 

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US consumer credit for October $25.384B vs $15.0B estimate

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Fri 7 Dec 2018 20:00:26 GMT
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Fri 7 Dec 2018 19:46:29 GMT

US crude oil futures settle the week at $52.61

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//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181207/2018-12-07_12-42-44.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 7 Dec 2018 19:46:29 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
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Up from last week's end of week settle at $50.93 The price of crude oil futures are settling the week at $52.61. That is up $1.12 or 2.18%. The high price today reached $54.22, while the low extended to $50.60.

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Fri 7 Dec 2018 19:37:51 GMT

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Italy government wins key vote on budget in the lower house

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Fri 7 Dec 2018 19:37:51 GMT
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Fri 7 Dec 2018 19:32:40 GMT

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Greg Michalowski
Fri 7 Dec 2018 19:32:40 GMT
Category: Central Banks
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Fri 7 Dec 2018 19:20:34 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
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Fri 7 Dec 2018 19:01:35 GMT

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Dow down -500 points. Major indices down > -2% on the day

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Trump is worried he's causing the drop in the stock market - report

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Fri 7 Dec 2018 19:01:18 GMT
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Canadian prosecutor says Meng arrest is for fraud; US warrant issued in August

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Fri 7 Dec 2018 18:50:54 GMT
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//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20181207/2018-12-07_11-47-45.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 7 Dec 2018 18:48:52 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
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More from Bullard: There is no purpose in Fed inverting yield curve to preempt inflation

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Fri 7 Dec 2018 18:41:50 GMT
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Bullard comments US 2s10s are at 14 bps today after falling to 9 earlier this week. ForexLive

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Fri 7 Dec 2018 18:19:50 GMT
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Fed's Bullard: Repeats call to leave rates unchanged

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Fri 7 Dec 2018 18:06:27 GMT
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Brainard Q&A: We are in vicinity of Fed's dual goals

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