1

Stocks giving up some of the early gains

EU trade retaliation comments has the USDJPY moving lower. US pre-market gains are also giving up some of the earlier gains. The S&P is up abaou 7 points (vs 11 earlier). The Nasdaq is up 15 vs 30 earlier.  

Stocks giving up some of the early gains
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair is down testing the 200 hour MA  (green line) at 110.663.  THe low for the day reached 110.61. The Thursday low reached 110.558. 

The low for the week was in the first hour of trading on Monday at 110.418.. The high was on Wednesday at 110.943. The total range of 52 pips is the most narrow trading week since early January 2012 IF the range is not extended today.  Low volatility.  

Where we are right now is in the middle of the trading range.  The extremes seem miles away but they are only 25 pips away.  The 200 and 100 hour MAs are barometers for bulls and bears. Trade below and we could make a run to the downside (and get a range extension).  Hold here and start trading back above the 100 hour MA with momentum, and maybe there is more upside.  

Favoring the downside, is trade war concerns and US yields have also moved lower. The 10 year is down -3.2 bps after being down about -1 bp earlier this morning. 

Favorng the upside is BOJ Kuroda is just out with a Japanese press article saying BOJ would mull additional easing if economy loses momentum toward hitting price goal (which is not happening).  He has been trying to talk down the JPY this week. 

ForexLive

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 14:05:07 GMT

1

BOJ's Kuroda: 'Of course' will consider additional easing if economy loses momentum

Kuroda comments in Asahi newspaper Just talking about more easing -- even hypothetically -- is a dovish turn. ForexLive

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BOJ's Kuroda: 'Of course' will consider additional easing if economy loses momentum


Adam Button
Fri 22 Feb 2019 14:05:07 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1


Kuroda comments in Asahi newspaper Just talking about more easing -- even hypothetically -- is a dovish turn. ForexLive

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Brexit formal text may be agreed in mid-March - report
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Fri 22 Feb 2019 14:00:50 GMT

Belgian January business confidence -1.7 vs -1.5 prior

Not a great sign It's a leading indicator. ForexLive

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Belgian January business confidence -1.7 vs -1.5 prior


Adam Button
Fri 22 Feb 2019 14:00:50 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Not a great sign It's a leading indicator. ForexLive

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:45:21 GMT

EURUSD moves between 100 and 200 hour MAs

Stays in the 3 day choppy range though The EURUSD made a run below trend line support and the 100 hour MA (blue line) and extended down toward the low from yesterday and the rising 200 hour MA (green line).  

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EURUSD moves between 100 and 200 hour MAs


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2019-02-22_6-34-35.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:45:21 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Stays in the 3 day choppy range though The EURUSD made a run below trend line support and the 100 hour MA (blue line) and extended down toward the low from yesterday and the rising 200 hour MA (green line).  

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:42:08 GMT

4

EU said to prepare to hit Xerox, Caterpillar and Samsonite if US puts tariffs on cars

EU prepares retaliation Bloomberg reports three names on a list of companies that will be hit with retaliatory tariffs: Xerox, Caterpillar and Samsonite. Obviously this was leaked to put a bit of pressure on the White House not to go through with the targets. Does it change anything? One argument is that the EU thinks it's going to be hit, so that's why it had the counterattack ready. I'd argue that they'd be negligent not to have a counterattack ready under any circumstances. In the bigger picture, it should have been expected that they would be ready to hit back.

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EU said to prepare to hit Xerox, Caterpillar and Samsonite if US puts tariffs on cars


Adam Button
Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:42:08 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
4
EU prepares retaliation Bloomberg reports three names on a list of companies that will be hit with retaliatory tariffs: Xerox, Caterpillar and Samsonite. Obviously this was leaked to put a bit of pressure on the White House not to go through with the targets. Does it change anything? One argument is that the EU thinks it's going to be hit, so that's why it had the counterattack ready. I'd argue that they'd be negligent not to have a counterattack ready under any circumstances. In the bigger picture, it should have been expected that they would be ready to hit back.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:30:08 GMT

3

Canada December retail sales -0.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected

Canadian retail sales data for December 2018 The headline was a tad better but the key reading on ex autos was softer and that suggests a weak holiday season for consumers, who may be starting to feel the squeeze of higher interest rates and sagging home prices.

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Canada December retail sales -0.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/canada-retail-sales.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:30:08 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
3
Canadian retail sales data for December 2018 The headline was a tad better but the key reading on ex autos was softer and that suggests a weak holiday season for consumers, who may be starting to feel the squeeze of higher interest rates and sagging home prices.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:21:57 GMT

The AUD is the strongest while the GBP is the weakest as NA trader enter

The USD is mixed with gains vs the GBP, down vs AUD and little changed vs the others The AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as NA traders enter the fray.  The AUD/China coal trade ban died down a little helping the pair today helping to support the pair. The GBP Brexit/Poliical mess is messy and that makes the GBP the biggest moving/trending currency at the start of the North American session.

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The AUD is the strongest while the GBP is the weakest as NA trader enter


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2019-02-22_6-02-11.jpg Greg Michalowski
Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:21:57 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
The USD is mixed with gains vs the GBP, down vs AUD and little changed vs the others The AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as NA traders enter the fray.  The AUD/China coal trade ban died down a little helping the pair today helping to support the pair. The GBP Brexit/Poliical mess is messy and that makes the GBP the biggest moving/trending currency at the start of the North American session.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:21:28 GMT

WTI crude rises to the highest since November 16

Canadian dollar ignores the move with retail sales looming WTI crude hit a session high of $57.81. That's the best level since mid-November as the rebound from $42.36 in December continues.

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WTI crude rises to the highest since November 16


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2019-02-22_8-20-28.png Adam Button
Fri 22 Feb 2019 13:21:28 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Canadian dollar ignores the move with retail sales looming WTI crude hit a session high of $57.81. That's the best level since mid-November as the rebound from $42.36 in December continues.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 12:46:51 GMT

2

ForexLive European morning FX news wrap: Pound falls as Brexit deal hopes hang in the balance

Forex news from the European morning session - 22 February 2019 Headlines: Markets: - AUD leads, GBP lags on the day - European equities slightly higher; E-minis up 0.4%

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ForexLive European morning FX news wrap: Pound falls as Brexit deal hopes hang in the balance


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2-22-2019-8-47-01-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 12:46:51 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
2
Forex news from the European morning session - 22 February 2019 Headlines: Markets: - AUD leads, GBP lags on the day - European equities slightly higher; E-minis up 0.4%

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 12:14:48 GMT

5

Cable fall continues as buyers are starting to lose grip

GBP/USD touches a low of 1.3005 on the day now ForexLive Of note, price is starting to slip back below the 100-hour MA (red line) and if sellers manage that, it would mean the near-term bullish momentum will be broken. However, there is still key support and light bids sitting around 1.2995-00 that will help to defend that bias for the time being.

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Cable fall continues as buyers are starting to lose grip


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2-22-2019-8-05-41-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 12:14:48 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
5
GBP/USD touches a low of 1.3005 on the day now ForexLive Of note, price is starting to slip back below the 100-hour MA (red line) and if sellers manage that, it would mean the near-term bullish momentum will be broken. However, there is still key support and light bids sitting around 1.2995-00 that will help to defend that bias for the time being.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 12:02:41 GMT

2

The Brexit road map next week

We're headed for a showdown between May and parliament members who want to take a no-deal option off the table revolt in parliament ForexLive Bloomberg has a very concise diagram of how things look set to play out:

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The Brexit road map next week


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2-22-2019-7-33-41-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 12:02:41 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
2
We're headed for a showdown between May and parliament members who want to take a no-deal option off the table revolt in parliament ForexLive Bloomberg has a very concise diagram of how things look set to play out:

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 11:00:04 GMT

UK February CBI retailing reported sales 0 vs 5 expected

Latest data released by CBI - 22 February 2019 - Prior 0 - Total distributive reported sales 14 - Prior 13 The readings here are an indicator of short-term trends in the retail and wholesale sector of the UK economy. Retail sales balance holds flat for a second straight month as sentiment continues to be weighed down by Brexit uncertainty. Of note, retailers' investment intentions fell to its weakest reading since February 2012. Low-tier data though.

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UK February CBI retailing reported sales 0 vs 5 expected


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2-22-2019-7-03-11-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 11:00:04 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Latest data released by CBI - 22 February 2019 - Prior 0 - Total distributive reported sales 14 - Prior 13 The readings here are an indicator of short-term trends in the retail and wholesale sector of the UK economy. Retail sales balance holds flat for a second straight month as sentiment continues to be weighed down by Brexit uncertainty. Of note, retailers' investment intentions fell to its weakest reading since February 2012. Low-tier data though.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 10:35:33 GMT

More Labour MPs said to be expected to quit party over next few days/weeks

ITV news correspondent, Angus Walker tweets ForexLive

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More Labour MPs said to be expected to quit party over next few days/weeks


Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 10:35:33 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
ITV news correspondent, Angus Walker tweets ForexLive

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 10:27:49 GMT

USD/JPY stays underpinned, inches towards the 111 handle once again

USD/JPY trades at the highs around 110.90 ForexLive The pair is inching upwards as risk sentiment is holding up well so far on the day. European equities started flat but are now trading mildly higher and that sentiment is shared by US equity futures as well:

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USD/JPY stays underpinned, inches towards the 111 handle once again


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2-22-2019-6-17-01-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 10:27:49 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
0
USD/JPY trades at the highs around 110.90 ForexLive The pair is inching upwards as risk sentiment is holding up well so far on the day. European equities started flat but are now trading mildly higher and that sentiment is shared by US equity futures as well:

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 10:21:28 GMT

1

Tusk to meet with May in Egypt but "there will be no Brexit deal in the desert" - report

Reuters reports, citing an EU official ForexLive

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Tusk to meet with May in Egypt but "there will be no Brexit deal in the desert" - report


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180911/may-tusk.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 10:21:28 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
1
Reuters reports, citing an EU official ForexLive

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 10:00:03 GMT

Eurozone January final core CPI +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim

Latest data released by Eurostat - 22 February 2019 - Final CPI +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y prelim - CPI -1.0% vs -1.1% m/m expected - Prior 0.0% ForexLive Preliminary figures can be found . Readings here are all in-line with initial estimates. There's nothing new to really gather from the release here. EUR/USD sits near unchanged levels at 1.1339 currently, trading in a 20 pips range for the day. EUR/GBP is a little higher at 0.8709 as the pound holds a little lower on the day.

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Eurozone January final core CPI +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2-22-2019-6-04-31-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 10:00:03 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Latest data released by Eurostat - 22 February 2019 - Final CPI +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y prelim - CPI -1.0% vs -1.1% m/m expected - Prior 0.0% ForexLive Preliminary figures can be found . Readings here are all in-line with initial estimates. There's nothing new to really gather from the release here. EUR/USD sits near unchanged levels at 1.1339 currently, trading in a 20 pips range for the day. EUR/GBP is a little higher at 0.8709 as the pound holds a little lower on the day.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:43:47 GMT

1

ECB's Nowotny: Sees discrepancy between central bank guidance and market expectations

Nowotny is going a bit off script here - ECB should consider how far to stray away from expectations ForexLive I'm not sure what he is trying to get at with the comments here. Most ECB members have made it well-known that current market pricing of only a probable rate hike (even odds of that are also slowly fading) at the end of this year is in-line with the central bank's forward guidance. That's also well communicated in the yesterday.

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ECB's Nowotny: Sees discrepancy between central bank guidance and market expectations


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20151015/nowotny-gold.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:43:47 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
1
Nowotny is going a bit off script here - ECB should consider how far to stray away from expectations ForexLive I'm not sure what he is trying to get at with the comments here. Most ECB members have made it well-known that current market pricing of only a probable rate hike (even odds of that are also slowly fading) at the end of this year is in-line with the central bank's forward guidance. That's also well communicated in the yesterday.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:38:15 GMT

12

Ireland's Coveney: EU working with UK to give reassurance on backstop

Key word there being 'reassurance' - If backstop is used, it would only be temporary And that's about as far as they will ever go to helping May get her Brexit deal across the line with the UK parliament. They'll be able to provide assurances that it will be temporary and that if there ever needs to be an extension, it would require a comprehensive reason to do so. But all of that will fall short of being legally-binding, which is what UK MPs are seeking at the moment.

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Ireland's Coveney: EU working with UK to give reassurance on backstop


Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:38:15 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
12
Key word there being 'reassurance' - If backstop is used, it would only be temporary And that's about as far as they will ever go to helping May get her Brexit deal across the line with the UK parliament. They'll be able to provide assurances that it will be temporary and that if there ever needs to be an extension, it would require a comprehensive reason to do so. But all of that will fall short of being legally-binding, which is what UK MPs are seeking at the moment.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:28:25 GMT

7

Cable falls to two-day low as sterling loses some shine

GBP/USD touches a low of 1.3017 on the session ForexLive Cable has been consolidating around 1.3025-50 for the most part since overnight trading but price action is starting to move away from that range as the pair falls to a low of 1.3017 on the day. Sellers are looking to regain some momentum and threaten a test of the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.3008.

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Cable falls to two-day low as sterling loses some shine


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2-22-2019-5-24-32-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:28:25 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Technical Analysis
7
GBP/USD touches a low of 1.3017 on the session ForexLive Cable has been consolidating around 1.3025-50 for the most part since overnight trading but price action is starting to move away from that range as the pair falls to a low of 1.3017 on the day. Sellers are looking to regain some momentum and threaten a test of the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.3008.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:22:59 GMT

2

ECB's Nowotny: Not necessary to resume asset purchase program

Further comments by Nowotny - If lending weakens, special measures could make sense - No conclusion yet on TLTROs - If slowdown is driven by one-off factors, TLTROs may not be needed ForexLive

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ECB's Nowotny: Not necessary to resume asset purchase program


Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:22:59 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
2
Further comments by Nowotny - If lending weakens, special measures could make sense - No conclusion yet on TLTROs - If slowdown is driven by one-off factors, TLTROs may not be needed ForexLive

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:13:41 GMT

ECB's Nowotny: German growth expectations likely to be revised down

ECB governing council member, Ewald Nowotny, speaks in Brussels The services sector is doing well but domestic demand can only do so much in keeping the economy afloat. I would still expect markets to price in a more dovish stance or at least an on-hold stance ahead of the meeting.

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ECB's Nowotny: German growth expectations likely to be revised down


Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:13:41 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
0
ECB governing council member, Ewald Nowotny, speaks in Brussels The services sector is doing well but domestic demand can only do so much in keeping the economy afloat. I would still expect markets to price in a more dovish stance or at least an on-hold stance ahead of the meeting.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:13:03 GMT

Ifo: Weak economic phase is set to continue in Germany

Comments by Ifo following the report earlier - Hard Brexit is by no means off the table yet - Trump's threat of tariffs are not yet reflected in sentiment figures ForexLive

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Ifo: Weak economic phase is set to continue in Germany


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190108/germany.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:13:03 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Comments by Ifo following the report earlier - Hard Brexit is by no means off the table yet - Trump's threat of tariffs are not yet reflected in sentiment figures ForexLive

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:10:49 GMT

Ian Austin the latest lawmaker to quit the Labour party

That's the ninth Labour lawmaker to quit the party and brings the total between Tory and Labour this week to a dozen Once again, just be wary of how the resignations here could potentially lead to an upheaval in British politics. But until we get there, this is merely a trivial issue.

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Ian Austin the latest lawmaker to quit the Labour party


Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:10:49 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
That's the ninth Labour lawmaker to quit the party and brings the total between Tory and Labour this week to a dozen Once again, just be wary of how the resignations here could potentially lead to an upheaval in British politics. But until we get there, this is merely a trivial issue.

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Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:00:21 GMT

Germany February Ifo business climate index 98.5 vs 98.9 expected

Latest data released by Ifo - 22 February 2019 - 99.1; revised to 99.3 - Expectations 93.8 vs 94.3 expected - Prior 94.2; revised to 94.3 - Current assessment 103.4 vs 103.9 expected ForexLive

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Germany February Ifo business climate index 98.5 vs 98.9 expected


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190222/2-22-2019-5-03-41-pm.png Justin Low
Fri 22 Feb 2019 09:00:21 GMT
Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Latest data released by Ifo - 22 February 2019 - 99.1; revised to 99.3 - Expectations 93.8 vs 94.3 expected - Prior 94.2; revised to 94.3 - Current assessment 103.4 vs 103.9 expected ForexLive

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