BlackRock in an investment management firm based in the US. Something like $6.5 trillion in assets under management.
Via a piece from Elga Bartsch, Head of Economic and Markets Research for the BlackRock Investment Institute.
Their base case is for euro-zone growth to pick up H2 of 2019
- But the risks around our favourable base case are considerable
- mainly tied to potential political troubles.
Brexit gets an acknowledgement, of course, but on elections coming up also:
- European Parliament elections in late May could result in a populist sweep of protest parties from both ends of the political spectrum. This would further erode the influence of pro-European centrist political forces.
- Heightened concerns about Europe's future would likely lead to a renewed widening in peripheral euro-zone government bond spreads.
- And:
- 2020 budget season may refocus attention on the conflict between the Italian government and the European Commission
- There are also going to be leadership changes this year in many EU Institutions, including at the ECB
And …
- European fragmentation … is the most prominent geopolitical concern for financial markets at the moment
