Forex news for North American trade on April 18, 2019:
- US retail sales for March 1.6% vs 1.0% estimate
- Canada February retail sales +0.8% vs +0.4% expected
- Markit US April prelim services PMI 52.9 vs 55.0 expected
- Canada March ADP employment +13.2K vs +36.2K prior
- April Philly Fed +8.5 vs +11.0 expected
- Initial jobless claims 192K va 205K estimate
- Fed's Kaplan: I'm getting more confident about 2019 growth outlook
- Fed's Bostic: Rates may go up or down but we are preserving optionality
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow rises to 2.8% from 2.4% prior
- J.P. Morgan Chase raises GDP forecast to 2.9% from 2.1% previously
- Mueller report published
- US February business inventories +0.3% vs +0.4% expected
- China said to lose market-economy trade case at WTO - report
Markets:
- Gold up $1.50 to $1275
- WTI crude up 30-cents to $64.06
- US 10-year yields down 3.4 bps to 2.56%
- S&P 500 up 5 points to 2905
- JPY leads, NZD lags
It was a heavy news day as Friday's scheduled releases were moved up because of the holiday. The big one was US retail sales and all the details were at least as strong as the headline. With the gain, we've now erased the declines from the terrible report in December and the market is more upbeat about US consumers.
That translated into US dollar strength but it wasn't exactly screaming higher. It made steady gains across the board and hit sessions highs in the New York afternoon against GBP, AUD and EUR.
The euro was pressured by another soft German PMI sparking a quick fall to 1.1250 from 1.1300. The selling continued down to 1.1230 in New York but it was generally subdued.
Cable got the benefit of a strong retail sales report but it didn't take advantage and instead sank a half-cent on the dollar. That may be accounting to flows ahead of the long weekend. Note that the UK is closed Monday.
Canada is also closed Monday and CAD bulls will be happy to see it after a disappointing finish to the week despite a small gain in crude. Canadian retail sales were strong on the headline but a big negative revision to ex-autos took the shine off the report. USD/CAD hit 1.3400 to erase the CPI drop from earlier in the week the chopped sideways to finish near 1.3388.
AUD and NZD both stumbled to the finish line as the US dollar gained. The effects of Chinese GDP have been fading and NZD/JPY is back near the post-CPI lows. Last Friday, AUD/JPY broke out of its 2019 channel to the upside but it's faded back down to the old range top near 80.00.
Have a great long weekend. See you Monday.
