Forex news for March 31, 2015 US edition:

  • Canadian Jan GDP -0.1% vs -0.2% expected
  • March Chicago PMI 46.3 vs 51.7 expected
  • March 2015 US consumer confidence 101.3 vs 96.0 exp
  • Fed's Lacker says there's a strong case for a June rate hike
  • BOJ should pursue monetary easing to meet inflation goal says Sato
  • There's a chance rates may stay low even longer says ECB's Knot
  • OPEC output rises to the highest since October in March - Rtrs
  • January 2015 US Case/Shiller house price index 0.57% vs 0.80% exp m/m
  • Fed's Lacker says US dollar has to play a role in inflation forecasts
  • March 2015 US Dallas Fed Texas services index -4.6 vs +1.7% prior
  • Warren Buffett: The euro had structural problems to begin with
  • New Zealand March residential property listings down 4.9% y/y
  • Gold down $2.45 to $1183
  • WTI crude down $1.26 to $47.42
  • S&P 500 down 18 points to 2067
  • S&P 500 up 0.4% in Q1, down 1.7% in March
  • GBP leads, EUR lags

The Canadian dollar caught fast money traders offside. Poloz had warned about 'atrocious' Q1 GDP heading into the January report but growth sagged just 0.1% in the month compared to 0.2% expected. USD/CAD initially fell to 1.2725 from 1.2785 but after a couple hours of consolidation it fell again, down to 1.2651.

Oil wasn't a major facto in the move. There were a couple squeezes higher as the Iran negotiations were extended but two rallies to $48.50 both faded back to $47.50 and oil finished the day near the lows.

Stocks also finished much lower but the FX market wasn't affected by the drop. USD/JPY chopped between 119.80 and 120.20 but closed right in the middle.

The big mover on the day was the euro but most of the declines came in Asian and European trading as EUR/USD fell to 1.0713 from 1.0825. The low was hours before US traders arrived and a bit of a wedge is unfolding in the 1.0725-75 range. Not much optimism left from the euro bulls.

The better move came in Cable as it climbed ahead of the London fix in a quick move 1.4871 from 1.4780. It was the second day of gappy moves in cable and is probably related to quarter-end. Like in the first episode, the gains are fading. Last at 1.4821.

The Australian dollar made a move on the fix as well, up to 0.7640 from 0.7600 but it's faded back to 0.7610.

Economic data and news wasn't a major factor and it will be more of the same on Wednesday with a new quarter getting underway.