Forex news from the European morning session 12 Feb

News:

  • Japan's Suga says market sentiment has become excessively pessimistic
  • Barclays cuts its year-end USDJPY forecast to 95.00 vs 120.00 prev
  • Spanish banks borrowed €133bln from the ECB in January
  • Morgan Stanley says the FX market is close to a "turning point" in the near term
  • German economy is on a moderate growth path
  • Reuters poll of 28 economists sees a 40% chance of Brexit
  • EU says Greece still needs more measures to meet its targets
  • Fitch highlights Chinese credit quality and property sectors as 2016 main risks for Hong Kong banks
  • So what does a €60bn a month shopping spree get you these days?
  • Cable still finding it hard to mount a real assault on 1.4600
  • USDJPY back in retreat after failing above 112.80
  • Nikkei closes down -4.84% at 14,952.61
  • Forex option expiries 12 February 2016

Data:

  • Q4 2015 Eurozone GDP flash 0.3% vs 0.3% exp q/q
  • December 2015 Eurozone industrial production -1.0% vs +0.3% exp m/m
  • Germany CPI Jan final mm -0.8% as exp
  • Germany Q4 GDP flash qq +0.3% as expected
  • France Q4 non-farm payrolls flash +0.2% vs 0.0% exp
  • Italy Q4 GDP flash qq WDA +0.1% vs +0.4% exp
  • Greece Q4 GDP qq SA -0.6% vs -1.4% prev
  • December 2015 UK Construction output 1.5% vs 1.5% exp m/m
  • Spain CPI Jan final mm -1.9% as expected

It's all been a little more orderly today but still a session with a few wobbles and roundtrips with all eyes on yen and equities again.

The weaker Nikkei led USDJPY and yen pairs lower early doors and we saw USDJPY down through 112.00 support to post 111.67 in a rush but a steadier start to European equity trading saw a rally back to 112.80 only to run into fresh supply and come tumbling back to 112.37.

Since then though it's been a lot more sedate with the pair mostly hanging around 112.60 while the euro had an early drift lower as European equities maintained their gains but with softer EZ data adding to the bearish tones. After a dip to 1.1265 though we've been trading mostly around 1.1275.

The move lower in EURGBP from 0.7820 to 0.7746 though put some sparks under cable and after an early look at 1.4450 support we climbed steadily back through 1.4500 then 1.4550 to post highs of 1.4570 before running to fresh supply and retreating.

USDCHF saw some demand first thing with EURCHF seemingly supported at 1.1000 but a move back down to 1.0984 has capped the franc.

USDCAD has traded up n down in a rang of 1.3880-1.3930 as oil too has seen good two-way business in a limited range.

Similarly AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been trading relatively tightly range-bound by cross plays again.

US retail sales data to come at 13.30 GMT and I'm thinking we have a few more thrills n spills before the week-end finally arrives.