The Reserve Bank of Australia meet today, with the announcement and accompanying statement due at 2.30pm local time in Sydney (0430GMT)
In brief ...
- The cash rate target is expected to remain on hold
- There is a good chance that the easing bias will be made more explicit
The most recent poll of analysts/economists from Reuters shows 22 of the 22 surveyed (i.e. all of them) expect the RBA to leave rates unchanged
(The Official Cash rate is currently at 2%, having been cut by 25bp in both February and May this year)
Of those 22 economists surveyed by Reuters, 6 of them are expecting another cut some time this year, just not today
Back on June 10 we heard from RBA Governor Stevens in a speech, where he said the bank remained open to the possibility of further easing. I expect we'll get something like this in the accompanying statement today which will make the bank's easing bias more explicit.
...
The AUD has really copped it since last week ...
If you're of the opinion that price leads the fundamental 'news' you'd have to think that this selling might well be indicating a surprise decision from the RBA today. I haven't heard, from anywhere, that a cut might be on the cards, and I am gonna stick with the consensus and not expect one ... but that price action is curious indeed leading up to a meeting. At the very least, I will not be long leading into the decision today.