fed harker
  • At some point this year, I expect policy rate will be restrictive enough to hold rates in place
  • Fed not done yet, but we are likely close
  • GDP growth will be modest but not forecasting a recession
  • I see real GDP growth about 1% this year before climbing to 2% in 2024 and 2025
  • Think unemployment will rise to modestly above 4% this year.

This is close to the party line, and suggests the end is near but is the end 5.25%? is it 5.5%? Is it 5.75%?

I guess he could have been more hawkish.

The Nasdaq is back in the black at +32 points or +0.27%. The S&P is near unchanged.

Harker is a voting member in 2023.