Author: Greg Michalowski

NFP awaited

The forex markets are quiet. Last day of summer before ALL kids go back to school (my son is 1 month into it but east coast schools head back after Labor Day on Monday). Traders may come back to work as well, but before then we have a little thing called the NFP and it is not only a push for the day but apparently for the Fed (it may also push the stock market as well).


The ranges are all narrow (with the exception of the USDJPY - see chart above). The EURUSD and GBPUSD lead the pack with a whooping 46 and 45 pips.  So with markets stalled, what are the target levels on a bull or bearish report for the EURUSD

A stronger/bullish report.  I think a bullish report - even though 217K is expected - is anything that has a 200K/5.2% or better/positive revisions.  My thinking is that the Fed has so backed itself into having to liftoff that they will look at breadth of the consistent gains, the low unemployment rate and just go for it.  Now when I "think" it  really does not matter. What matters is the "Market" and the price action vs. tech tools. In other words does the EURUSD go lower?



ON the downside, the following targets include:
  1. 1.11122: This is the 100 day MA. Yesterday the price dipped below but moved back above by the close. Get below. Stay below.
  2. 1.1086: The low from yesterday.  That low stalled near a low trend line on the hourly chart.
  3. 1.1079: Not far from the 1.1086. So both can be combined. 
  4. 1.1010-21: This area goes back to August 11-August 19th on the hourly chart. There were lows at this area.  A move to  1.11010 would make a 150 pip trading range for the day. This is a doable target on a better number/tightening Fed.  
  5. Below 1.1000.  Natural level should be used by traders to define and limit risk on a break back below.
On the upside.
  1. 1.11648: This is the 50% of the move down yesterday. Draghi pushed the EURUSD lower on his dovish comments and the ECB lowering of the GDP and Inflation outlooks.  Get above and stay above
  2. 1.1180. Low from Monday NY session
  3. 1.1217: 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). Yesterday and on Wednesday NY session that MA was the ceiling. Key level. To get to the 100 hour MA, that would be 105 pip range. Not that big but if the number is ambiguous (i.e. 190Kish), than that might be the ceiling.
  4. 1.1243: High from yesterday.
  5. 1.1255: Underside of broken trend line
  6. 1.1278: This would be a stretch but it equals the 200 day MA AND the 200 hour MA.  So a double 200 test.  Nice and juicy level there.
These levels are what I see, and what I expect lots of smart traders see as well as targets.  Risk can be defined against them.  Risk pre-report is high, however.  Trade accordingly  We are not gamblers.  We don't know what the numbers will be nor what is priced in.  There is the uncertainty from the Friday/end of summer/China has been off (what does it do for their stock market on Monday) that could cause continued choppiness. Traders - who may be working - may also be looking to exit stage left early to get to the beach one last time.  

Good fortune with your trading


View More

View Full Article with Comments

Author: Ryan Littlestone

Fed's Jeffrey Lacker : Won't make final decision until he hears debate at FOMC

Fed's Jeffrey Lacker on "The case against further delay" - August jobs report is unlikely to materially alter picture - US no longer requires zero interest rates No shock as to the tone of the comments from super hawk Lacker. Yellen said they wanted more from the jobs market, Lacker says they've got it

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
4

Forex levels to watch over non farm payrolls

Time to pour over the charts and see what's afoot going into and over NFP USDJPY Up - 119.70 may hold some minor resistance, though a bit too close to the current price Down

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
8

The non farm pre-match entertainment wouldn't be complete without the views of 15 banks

What top expect from NFP from 15 big banks Here they are; Worth noting that in recent years, the preliminary August payrolls figure has tended to be relatively soft in the initial release and has subsequently been revised upwards in following employment reports, with back revisions averaging +79k over the past five years. Likewise, the consensus has a modest tendency to overestimate job growth in August, more so than in other months. For example, consensus forecasts have over­predicted August job growth since 2010 by an average of 30k. We expect the unemployment rate to decline to 5.2%, in line with consensus. Average hourly earnings for all employees are likely to increase 0.3% month­over­month in August

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
3

ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD Bulls "Help us NFP, you're our only hope"

Forex news and economic data headlines 4 September 2015 Asia catch up -  ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Yen crosses hit hard lower today The market looks a little lost today. Maybe there's some fatigue, and maybe no one actually knows what's going on, or what to do about the thing they don't know about.

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
7

BOJ's Kuroda says world economy is recovering overall

Who is he trying to kid? - Emerging markets are slowing somewhat - Sees G20 discussions focused on China and emerging economies - Fed rate rise would reflect strength in US economy

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone

BOJ may downgrade export view in next assessment - Reuters

Reuters citing sources - BOJ may slightly revise assessment on exports - Expected to offer a bleaker view on overseas economies than last month The latest Q2 revisions will be out next week and the BOJ will be releasing their assessment also

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
2

G20 waffle: Schaeuble says emerging market situation will be discussed

Wolfy turns up for the G20 - Will have intensive discussion on China - Concerned about market bubbles driven by liquidity There's going to be lots of talking about China but none of it will make it into the official G20 communique after. Pointless

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

ECB's Noyer says monetary policy alone cannot sustain activity

Looks like the ECB are singing from the same hymn sheet - Other channels are needed to boost investment - Second European debt crisis is hopefully behind us - Constant changes in policies discourage investment Three in a row for mentioning that monetary policy won't fix everything. That's a big statement. It's always a theme for Draghi at the pressers but the fact that so far the first three members out on the wires have mentioned it also suggests that the ECB wants to drive a point home

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
4

G20 draft statement didn't tackle Chinese markets

Time to crack up the crap from the G20 Oh goody. It's G20 weekend where putting together a simple statement becomes the most boring and long drawn out affair ever

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
4

USDJPY drops through 119.00 to 118.84

USDJPY is up against it today USDJPY has broken 119.00 in what looks to be more of a yen related move than anything else We've dropped through a broken resistance line from Dec 2014 but have pulled up ahead of support at 118.80

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
3

ECB's Nowotny: Unclear if more ECB stimulus will be needed

Ewald Nowotny all over the wires - ECB will continue QE as planned - ECB agreed to continue policy of "steady hand" - Monetary policy has limits in what it can achieve That's another comment on the limits of QE. Unfortunately the calls for member state governments to do more to help themselves largely falls on deaf ears

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone

August 2015 Eurozone Markit retail PMI 51.4 vs 54.2 prior

August 2015 retail PMI's for the Eurozone, France, Italy and Germany 4 September 2015 - Germany 54.7 vs 57.7 prior - France 49.5 vs 52.9 prior - Italy 47.7 vs 50.7 prior All losers and two drop into contraction

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone

UK New car registrations rise 9.6% un August y/y

Latest car registration data - Prior 3.2% Not a huge data point but something to look at from a consumer angle ()  unless they're fiddling the numbers like back in 2014

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

August 2015 German Markit construction PMI 50.3 vs 50.6 prior

Here's the August 2015 German Markit construction PMI data report 4 September 2015 A 7 month low for construction as civil engineering falls the most in 11 months. Expectations are for a decline in activity over the next 12 months, says Markit

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone

August 2015 Swiss CPI -1.4% vs -1.4% exp y/y

Highlights of the August 2015 Swiss inflation data report 4 September 2015 - Prior -1.3% - -0.2% vs -0.2% exp m/m. Prior -0.6% - HICP -1.2% vs -0.8% prior y/y Deflation not looking any better in Switzerland Swiss CPI y/y          

View More

Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

European stocks play catch up with Asia

European stock market open 4 September 2015 - FTSE -0.9% - Cac -1.0% - Dax -1.1% - Ibex -1.0% - FTSE Mib -1.2% European bonds - Italy 1.90% -1bp - Spain 2.08% -1bp

View More

;
LON GMT+1
BJ HK+8
NY EST-4
TYO +9
GMT

Forex Education

Visit education.forexlive.com for more learning experiences.

Technical Analysis ... More

Forex Orders ... More

Central Banks ... More

;