Forex news for trader on May 22, 2017
In other markets:
- Spot gold is hired by five dollars or 0.41% to $1261.01.
- WTI crude oil futures settle the June contract at $50.73, up $.40 or 0.79%
It was a quiet North American session today. Was it the Canada holiday, little in the way of economic data, Trump out of the country, or just a Monday? Probably a combination of all.
OK, here's what's coming up:
2330GMT - Australia - the weekly consumer confidence data from ANZ / Roy Morgan
- prior week 109.4
- This has been on the slide, below its longer term average
2330GMT - Federal Reserve Governor Brainard speaks. I'll keep an eye out for anything market-related
The GBPUSD has moved back below the 1.3000 level in the last few minutes of trading. There is additional support at the 1.2988-90 which was the high ceiling area (see Red Box in the chart below). Today, the price moved below this area on two separate occasions. Another move below will not be all that bullish technically.
NZD remains the strongest currency...
As London traders hit the pubs or head home on the trains, the NZD remains the strongest currency. While the GBP is the weakest. That makes the GBPNZD the biggest mover and indeed, it has moved 1.13% from the Friday close.
Kaplan publishes essay
- While I believe that these recent readings on inflation are likely not indicative of a weakening trend, I intend to be patient and open minded in assessing upcoming data releases in this regard.
The newswire headlines on Kaplan's speech are hawkish but the actual text shows that he's worried about low inflation and not as confident as he was before.
Oil higher but in middle of the range
The USDCAD is trading below it's 50% of the move up from the April 12 low. That comes in at 1.35076. The last 5 hourly bars has closed below that MA level. It is a close risk level intraday for traders. Traders who are short want to see the price stay below that level. We are currently trading near it. If it starts to trade and close back above shorts may look to buyback shorts.
First break above 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart since April 17th
The pair is trading at the highest level since May 3rd. The next target is being approached at the 0.7490-92 area. That level corresponds a series of swing lows and highs going back to April 19th (see red circles in the chart above).
A move below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart would be concerning - at least intraday, but it is not the end of the world for the bulls (it muddies the bullish waters a bit though). A move back below the 0.7468 level (61.8% and trend line) would increase the bearish bias, however. The high today reached 0.7485.
Harker delivered a commencement speech in Philadelphia for a class of pharmacists
Nothing on the outlook or monetary policy:
- What strikes me is that the areas of the country that are struck low by
the intersection of poor health and dim economic prospects, the areas
that are most affected by these crises, are caught in a spiral of
Feel free to cop the speech if you're planning a speech to healthcare grads. If not, move on.
....Lower highs over the last few days
The not so bullish (concerning) is that since the break above the 1.1288-90 on Thursday:
Nevertheless, despite the concerns, I still give the nod to the bulls. Stay above 1.2988-90 would be the close support (risk) for longs now. Stay above the 100 hour MA is a lower risk level for longs. On the topside, if the price can get and stay above the prior highs, the dips will not look "bearish" but simple "corrective".
The euro has almost erased the entire swoon since Trumps election
The latest bid in EUR/USD tripped stops above 1.1250 in a quick move up to a session high of 1.1264. It's the fifth big move higher in six days.