Author: Ryan Littlestone

Yep, we're still watching

  • A lot has happened since Dec rate hike
  • Fed is reviewing how global developments may affect outlook
  • If outlook changes the Fed would have to account for it
  • Outlook hasn't sufficiently shifted to warrant a rate cut 

Well that's an acknowledgement that there's been some shift though isn't it?

I'm in full agreement with Adam's earlier post. The Fed can't see past the end of their noses. Everyone got spanked for not seeing the storm clouds before the GFC, and they haven't learnt those lessons.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
4

EURUSD reaches new session highs for the day

Stocks at lows. Gold at highs. The EURUSD has printed new session highs at 1.1368. Stocks trade at new session lows. S&P down about 2% Gold trades at new session highs.  

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD tests 100/200 hour MA

Fell below earlier today.  Back testing the MAs The GBPUSD has moved up to test the 100 and 200 hour MAs at the 1.44688-759 area.  The pair fell below the converged MAs earlier today on the way down to test Tuesday's low. The test of the moving averages has so far held.   If that is the ceiling, look for a break of the 1.4439-44 as a more bearish confirmation. 

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Author: Adam Button
17

Yellen: Extent of US dollar strength not anticipated by Fed

Yellen comments in Day 2 of Humphrey Hawkins: - Stronger dollar has helped hold down inflation - Fed is watching developments very carefully - Fed has been surprised by oil drop Premature? It's your job. Is she waiting for a bird to fly in the window at the March FOMC and whisper to her what's going on?

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Author: Greg Michalowski

USDCAD head back to unchanged 

Key support a little lower The USDCAD has rotated a bit lower after oil price rebounded ....a little (it is still below $27 a barrel). The fall in the price took the price back to unchanged on the day at the 1.3926 level. The price is currently trading at 1.3942. 

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
12

It's nearly time for Yellen Part II

The coffee's on and the pillow's plumped. Time for Yellen round 2 At the top of the hour, Yellen's up in front of the next batch of do-gooding do-nothings and the US Senate Banking Committee.

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Author: Adam Button
13

Gold touches one-year high, what's next

Gold prices have gone parabolic There is no better sign about the fear in markets and the lack of confidence in central banks than the gold chart at the moment.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD keeps the bid

For now? The EURUSD reaction is that stocks go down, the EURUSD benefits.  EURGBP also goes higher.  Yesterday, the pair did dip and fall below the 100 hour MA and trend line on the hourly chart. That lasted for less than an hour. The price today extended to the highest level since October 21. In the process the pair moved above the underside of an old trend line (see daily chart below). That trend line was tested and held on Tuesday. Today it was broken and failed....well maybe. The line cuts across at 1.1354 currently and the price is testing right as the stocks open.  I guess the traders are not all that bullish on a stock reversal. 

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Author: Adam Button
3

Lagarde is one of the few global officials who deserves to be in charge

Lagarde to remain as IMF leader Christine Lagarde has been one of the few global officials who have been right over the past few years. The IMF has consistently been better at forecasting growth in developed nations than the governments and central bankers employed to do the job.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

Lagarde's reign of terror to continue into second term

IMF's Christine Lagarde unchallenged for new term My headline's tongue in cheek of course...mostly The IMF board is set to meet with Lagarde over the selection process after the nomination deadline passed and she went unchallenged.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
9

Venezuela proposed oil production freeze - Reuters

Over to oil - Wanted a freeze at current production levels - Saudi's warmed to idea but would not participate unless Iran joined in  - Iran said "jog on" to production cuts A sources close to the matter story from Reuters. They obviously phrased the last comment slightly differently ;-)

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Author: Adam Button
9

The one simple guideline in a wild market

Don't overthink it, play by the rules There is a time to break every trading rule you have but this isn't it. If it wasn't clear before, we're into an extremely volatility market now.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
14

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY the wild child

RISK IS ELEVATED.. Risk is elevated.  Why? There is Market risk (that is with us all the time), event risk and liquidity risk (that is not always with us).  The BOJ reported "call around" is a potential event risk that unlike an economic release, is untimed and could happen again at any time and you just saw what could happen as a result of it (the USDJPY got within 14 pips of unchanged in an instant (it was down 233 pips at the lows of the day). 

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Author: Adam Button

Canadian Dec new housing price index +0.1% vs +0.2% exp

Canadian housing data from Statistics Canada: - Prior was +0.2% - Prices up 1.6% y/y - Prior y/y index was +1.6% This is a lagging indicator. The prices of oil and commodities are the leading indicator on where Canadian housing is headed.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

US initial jobless claims 269k vs 281k exp

US initial jobless claims data report w/e 5 February 2016 - Prior 285k - Continued claims 2.239m vs 2.250m exp. Prior 2.255m. Revised to 2.260m - 4 week avg 281.25k vs 284.75k prior A nice enough drop in claims and the 4 week average turning lower should keep the indications of a one off in place for Jan's NFP's

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
8

Don't do the BOJ's work for them

I might have to keep a running list of Do's and Do not's today ;-) The BOJ only needs to do half the job. If and when they do intervene there will be so many others jumping on the bandwagon that they'll extend the BOJ move by probably 20-30%

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