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Author: Adam Button

Williams speaks to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation

On inflation: "I haven't really changed my forecast for inflation. I still expect it to move back to 2 percent, our goal, in the next year or so, but given what we've seen in recent months, I'm watching it carefully."

Cites cell phone plan pricing as a reason for weakness, says "underlying trajectory" is good.

On economy: "The US economy is still doing -- I think on fundamentals -- is doing quite well."

Warns that excessive risks taking could be pulled back as Fed moves rates toward more-normal levels.

Warns on stock market: "I am somewhat concerned about the complacency in the market. If you look at these measures of uncertainty, like the VIX measure, or other indicators, there seems to be a priced-to-perfection attitude out there," he said. "The stock market still seems to be running very much on fumes, or is very strong in terms of that, so something that clearly is a risk to the U.S. economy, some correction there, is something that we have to be prepared for, and to respond to, if it does happen."

Watch the interview here.

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Author: Adam Button
1

#2 Senate Republican says healthcare vote coming this week

Comments from John Cornyn, who is Senate majority whip Cornyn said he expects to have the support to "get it done". He spoke on NBC. Meanwhile,  Utah Senator Mike Lee today became the 5th GOP Senator to oppose starting the health care bill debate. Something doesn't add up here because Republicans can only afford to lose 4 votes.

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Author: Adam Button

Fed's Harker: US inflation weakness is temporary, still wants to hike

Harker speaks on the economic outlook and international trade in London - Still backs one more hike this year - Has trimmed his inflation forecast still believes it will hit 2% in 2018 These headlines have a more-hawkish look to them than on June 21, in an interview but I might be splitting hairs.

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Author: Adam Button
3

New Zealand dollar breakout looks more like a fakeout

NZD/USD hits stops and then fades back to unchanged A fourth day of gains pushed the New Zealand dollar through the June highs to the best levels since February. Stops were tripped on the run above the June high of 0.7320 in a quick rally to 0.7344 but after a sharp run-up, the pair quickly faded.

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Author: Adam Button
9

Trump increasingly frustrated with China over North Korea and trade - report

Reuters, citing senior administration sources - Trump increasingly frustrated with China over North Korea and trade - Trump considering tougher stance with China, thinking about steel tariffs Trump was self-impressed with his 'great chemistry' with Xi and his ploy to drop bombs on Syria at his meeting but Xi doesn't care. China's going to do what it wants.

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Author: Adam Button
3

June US consumer confidence 118.9 vs 116.0 expected

Consumer confidence data from The Conference Board - was 117.9 - Present situation 146.3 - Prior present situation 140.7 - Expectations 100.6 - Prior expectations 102.6 That's a healthy jump in expectation and it goes against the prevailing wisdom that consumers are getting a bit tired of waiting for results from Washington.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Richmond Fed manufacturing index for June 7 vs. 5 estimate

Prior month came in at 1 The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index came in at 7 vs 5 estimate (a few seconds early too). The prior month came in at 1. The data is better than expectations but from the chart above, the index does have a lot of up  and down volatility. 

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Author: Greg Michalowski
2

EURUSD makes new post election highs but....

...backs off quickly The EURUSD did base ahead of the 1.1265-69 level (see prior post), and that helped to propel the pair to new highs. The pair also made a new post election high up to 113.04 -taking out the 1.1300 level.  

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Author: Adam Button
2

Nicola Sturgeon finds a dozen ways to say 'retreat'

Scottish First Minister abandons plan to call referendum One of the rules of politics is that it's ok to flip-flop or change plans but it's never ok to admit it. That's a particularly tough rule to follow in a black-and-white issue like "we will hold a referendum in two years."

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Author: Greg Michalowski
5

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY traders test the air above the 100 day MA

The 112.125-19 is the next target (if it can stay above the key  MA) The USDJPY traders are testing the "air" above the 100 day MA.   The first look (started in the NY afternoon yesterday), saw the price dip back below in the late Asian/early European trading. The price has moved back above the 100 day MA for the 2nd time over the last few hours. The price has stayed above but the high from earlier today at 112.066 has not be approached.  The break has not failed (it is not shaded red like the first break), but there is some work to do.  If the price moves back below the 100 day MA (and the 111.71 level - bottom of yellow area), the buyers should liquidate on the failure.   So far, however, I give the benefit of the doubt to the buyers against that old ceiling level. 

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Author: Adam Button
3

IMF cuts US growth forecast for 2017 and 2018

The downgrades begin as IMF releases latest Article IV - Sees 2017 growth at 2.1% compared to 2.3% in April - 2018 forecast cut to 2.1% from 2.5% - Says Fed should continue to hike "in a data dependent way" Those lower forecasts put the IMF virtually in-line with the Fed. This was supposed to be the year that the US outperformed but it's shaping up to be another 2% year.

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Author: Adam Button

Case-Shiller US 20-city house price index +0.28% vs +0.50% exp

House price data - Prior was 0.87% (revised to +0.53%) - 20-city prices up 5.67% y/y compared to 5.9% exp - Prior y/y reading was +5.88% This stumble isn't going to change the underlying momentum and optimism in house prices but it could be a sign that higher interest rates are starting to sting.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
2

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD trades at new session highs

Looks to take out 1.1300 (?)/post US election high The EURUSD, on the back of more hawkish comments from ECB Draghi today, is looking once again toward taking out the post US election spike high from November at 1.1300 level. The pair this month has a number of peaks between 1.1282 and 1.1295. Each time, sellers entered. 

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Author: Adam Button

Harker was the second choice to lead the Philly Fed

Documents show someone else turned down the post Patrick Harker wasn't initially considered as a candidate for the Philadelphia Fed, he was on the committee searching for someone to replace Charles Plosser.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
11

The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

The EURUSD is the strongest. The JPY is the weakest A snapshot of the strongest and weakest currencies as North American traders enter for the day shows the EUR as the strongest and the JPY as the weakest.  Comments from Draghi regarding  room for pairing stimulus has the EUR surging to the upside.  Although the USDJPY is little changed, the JPY crosses are marching higher in trading today making the JPY the weakest.

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Author: Mike Paterson
15

EURJPY posts 1-year highs as euro continues to shine

It's been a good session for the euro since Draghi's ECB Forum speech Draghi tried hard to throw in some dovish tones but it was the lip service he seemed to be paying to Germany, with some more hawkish talk than he would normally be associated with, that gave a leg-up to the euro.

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Author: Mike Paterson

ForexLive European morning wrap: Euro the star turn in a lively session

Forex news for European morning trading on June 27 2017 : News Data: It's been a busy session that initially saw some general USD supply with USDJPY continuing its Asian retreat from 112.08 but has since turned into a celebration for all things euro.

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Author: Mike Paterson

Option contract expiries for 14.00 GMT 27 June

Here's the forex option expiries for the 10am NY (14.00 GMT) cut today 27June - EURUSD: 1.1150 (EUR 210m) 1.1200 (560m)  1.1230 (340m) 1.1300 (470m) 1..1350 (610m) Remember that these are "vanilla" options so still in play right up to expiry at 14.00 GMT on the day even if breached in the meantime, unlike barrier options which cease to be once hit. The actual amounts can change right up to expiry.

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Author: Mike Paterson
5

BOE's Carney sees financial stability risk from Brexit

BOE FSB presser now underway 27 June - FPC previous cut of CCYB along with MPC action supported UK economy during period of heightened uncertainty - FPC now raising CCYB again as domestic risks now at standard levels No surprises there. If you're not earning enough to beat rising prices you're going to borrow more. Was ever thus Mr C .Always a key risk as I've banged on about for months/years now.

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Author: Mike Paterson

UK CBI June distributive trades survey 12 vs 5 exp

UK CBI June distributive trades survey  27 June - 2 prev - total reported sales 17 vs 15 exp vs 18 prev Not going to make any odds to price with Carney presser looming.

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