Author: Ryan Littlestone

Latest Baker Hughes rig count report 31 July 2015

Just awaiting the breakdown

Here we go

  • Oil rig count 664 vs 659 prior
  • Gas rigs 209 vs 216 prior

It sure looks like a bottom is forming to me

Baker Hughes oil rig count

WTI has broken the days lows on the release and we're down to 47.21

More rigs coming online increases production and that keeps the bearish grip on the oil price in place 

WTI daily chart

           

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
5

The Fed trade is the biggest squeeze

The market hype is rising over the Fed When we usually talk about squeezes we talk about one side of a trade squeezing the other. It's normal market dynamics that when the buyers or the sellers damage one or the other there's a point at which they the pain becomes too much and that side breaks

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

Greek markets will reopen with restrictions

Greek ministerial decree says the ASE will be back in business There's no data attached to this nor further details on what the restrictions are Update: ASE will open on Monday

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

European stock market close

European stock market close 31 July 2015 - FTSE +0.5% - Cac +0.7% - Dax +0.4% - Ibex +0.1% - FTSE Mib +0.6% European bonds - Italy 1.77% -5bp - Spain 1.84% -6bp

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
5

Michigan's Curtin says Fed should better communicate rate view

Comments from the Michigan survey director - Keeps consumer spending view of 3% - Very few consumers are borrowing before hike - Fed needs to be careful not to hurt housing The comments couldn't have come at a more apt time after the employment cost data

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
8

July 2015 Michigan consumer sentiment final 93.1 vs 94.0 exp

July 2015 University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey final 31 July 2015 - Flash 93.3. June 96.1 - Current conditions 107.2 vs 106.3 exp. Flash 106.0. Jun 108.9 Sentiment takes a dip but is still at multi year highs. It was enough to knock a few pips off the dollar but for now the big drop is either over or taking a moment to catch its breath

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
12

July 2015 Chicago PMI 54.7 vs 50.5 exp

July 2015 Chicago PMI data report 31 July 2015 - Prior 49.4 Back into expansion with all components higher USD takes a few pips back from the falls but this number is unlikely to change the tide unless the bigger move is done anyway

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
8

All eyes on twitter for the Chicago PMI at 13.45 GMT

Let the games begin on the Chicago PMI leaks The PMI is released to paid subscribers 2 minutes before we mugs get it. It's usually out on twitter within moments and you'll know by the price action whether it's good, bad or meh

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
15

EURUSD breaks 1.1100 as dollar rout continues

We're not done yet as the buck takes another kick in the shins It's all about the levels people 1.1080 was strong and now its gone in EURUSD. We've tested the short term down trend and a re holding for now. If we move lower look for 1.1080 to become support. If it holds then we could see another push higher. I got out of my short on the 1.11 break as I didn't like the PA

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
55

Plunge in US wages topples dollar

Can't say I've ever seen this data point move the market so much EURUSD has run up to old resistance at 1.1080 after the data and that's over 100 pips from the release.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
5

Q2 2015 US employment costs 0.2% vs 0.6% exp q/q

Highlights of the Q2 2015 US employment costs index data report 31 July 2015 - Prior 0.7% - Wages 0.2% vs 0.7% prior - Benefits 0.1% vs 0.6% prior Poor numbers for Q2 and it's knocked the buck for nearly 40 pips down to the day's lows at 123.91

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
2

May 2015 Canada GDP -0.2% vs 0.0% exp m/m

Details of the May 2015 Canada GDP data report 31 July 2015 - Prior -0.1% - 0.5% vs 0.8% exp y/y. Prior 1.2% Commodity and manufacturing did the damage this month. It was mining last month and that's not doing much better

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

Will Canadian growth keep giving Poloz a headache?

Canadian growth looks to turn around 4 straight losses At the bottom of the hour we get the latest growth figures for May. 0.0% is expected from -0.1% prior m/m. If we go negative again that will be the 5th consecutive minus

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Author: Mike Paterson

EURGBP: The gift that keeps on giving

Especially at month-end with the BUBA demand to cover the UK's EU subscription fees I highlighted it again this morning and we've seen a move from 0.7005 to 0.7057

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Author: Mike Paterson
5

Russian central bank cuts key interest rate by 0.5% to 11.0%

News just breaking from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation but as expected - effective 3 August - says it will further decide on its key rate depending on the balance of inflation risks and risks of economy cooling Full CBR statement

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Author: Mike Paterson

Italian PPI June -0.2% mm vs +0.2% prev

Softer Italian PPI following on from earlier French data - yy -2.3% vs -1.9% prev Meanwhile the draw of the helps see EURUSD up to 1.0989 1.1000 expiry EURGBP 0.7045 from 0.7057 in what has been another month-end buying gift. Don't say you weren't told!

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Author: Mike Paterson
26

AUDUSD finally takes out 0.7250 barrier option

The AUD 1bln has provided good support this week but has now finally been reached barrier option Ironic that it was due to roll off today anyhow We still have vanilla option expiries of AUD 866m at the price later so we should expect the level to remain a magnet in the meantime

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