9 minutes ago | July 30th, 2014 23:05:14 GMT

Bank of England Broadbent: Comments on UK economy, GBP and interest rates

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BOE deputy governor Ben Broadbent speaks in Bloomberg interview – comments crossing the wires:

  • First rate increase shouldn’t be ‘massive shock’
  • Says household debt hardens case for moving gradually
  • Raising rates would be sign economy is recovering
  • Sees case for raising rates earlier for gradual path
  • Guidance isn’t ‘hard and fast,’ depends on data
  • Rates likely to be lower than in past expansions
  • Says rate increases likely to be limited, gradual
  • Says weaker wages suggest BOE underestimated slack
  • Slack being eaten up faster than BOE forecast says some increase in wages is likely
  • Possible growth in past year closer to 4% than 3%
  • Sees growth slowdown toward end of year, early 2015
  • 3Q growth forecast may be revised up marginally
  • Says ‘the edge is coming off’ UK housing market
  • Debt level not argument for doing nothing on rates
  • Exchange rate result of imbalances, not the cause
  • Risk of leaving move too late is faster inflation
  • Says pound would weaken if global growth accelerated
  • Says a concern growth in rest of the world is so weak
  • Says ‘quite possible’ sterling is overvalued

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Broadbent spoke yesterday as well: Broadbent Says Global Growth Creating Drag on U.K. Recovery

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50 minutes ago | July 30th, 2014 22:24:19 GMT

Meanwhile – mediator on Argentina: Argentina didn’t reach agreement with holdouts

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Mediator (Dan Pollack) on Argentina:

  • Argentina didn’t reach agreement with holdouts
  • Argentina will imminently be in default
  • Remains available to parties to find solution
  • Says the full consequences of default are not predictable, but they are certainly not positive

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This while Argentine Economy Minister Axel Kicillof press conference is happening (and being updated and added to, here)

 

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1 hour ago | July 30th, 2014 21:52:16 GMT

Argentina’s Kicillof: Speaking now

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Argentine Economy Minister Axel Kicillof press conference. Earlier: Argentina downgraded – cut to Selective Default by S&P

Live feed here (in Spanish)

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  • Giving an update on talks with holdout creditors
  • Reiterated Argentina’s position to holdout creditors
  • Says Judge Griesa thinks holdout creditors should grant stay
  • Says hedge funds not willing to give delay on ruling
  • Says Argentina can’t comply with court ruling
  • Says debt taks should include all holdouts, not just hedge funds
  • Says Argentina presented an offer, same terms as previous debt swaps
  • Holdouts didn’t accept offer (i.e hedge funds rejected Argentina’s offer)
  • Argentina asked holdouts for a delay on court ruling, says a stay would create conditions for debt negotiation
  • Total claims from holdouts $15bn-$20bn
  • Holdouts suggested providing a guarantee
  • Kicillof says guarantee doesn’t make sense for Argentina
  • Says Argentina cannot sign any accord under extortion
  • Judge doesn’t understand complexities of the case
  • Judge seems to favour holdouts
  • No one knows how to define this Argentine default
  • Says Argentina is not in default, Argentina to keep paying its debt
  • Says blocked debt payment the responsibility of judge
  • Argentina will continue to pay restructured bondholders
  • Says ratings agencies aren’t credible
  • Argentina will take all measures needed to face unfair situation
  • Argentina will not do anything illegal

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(ps. – the other important late US development: Banco Espirito Santo capital falls below minimum requirement on 4.25B euro loss)

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I’m updating all these comments … but the FX rates don’t care. Not much happening. (Although oil is drifting lower)

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