Author: Mike Paterson

All quiet on the vanilla option front 16 Jan

As NA desks return and markets look for clues anywhere they can the vanilla options market is providing limited opportunity at the moment.

Today's contracts of any note only feature these which are all out of real range with time running out for anyone to make a move:

  • USDJPY: 111.10 USD 840m
  • USDCAD: 1.2500 USD 420m 1.2520 300m
  • EURGBP: 0.8900 EUR 310m

On Thursday we do have some decent size USDJPY to keep an eye on:

  • 110.80 USD 1.4bln 
  • 111.00 USD 1.1bln

Remember that these options are vanilla contracts and in play right up to expiry even if breached in the meantime unlike barrier options which are taken out when hit.

Current barrier options in play as I've reported are:

  • EURUSD 1.2300
  • GBPUSD 1.3900 1.4000
  • USDJPY  110.00
For more help on how to use all this info please refer to my post here.

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Author: Mike Paterson

GDT price index rises 4.9% vs 2.1% prev

Result of the latest GDT auction now out 16 Jan - ave selling price $3,310 per tonne vs $3124 prev NZDUSD a little higher at 0.7277 on the announcement but capping again.

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GDT price index rises 4.9% vs 2.1% prev


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
0


Result of the latest GDT auction now out 16 Jan - ave selling price $3,310 per tonne vs $3124 prev NZDUSD a little higher at 0.7277 on the announcement but capping again.

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UK's Carillion goes into liquidation after talks fail
Asset 41

Author: Greg Michalowski
2

Forex technical analysis: What to look for in the EURUSD correction

The high got close to 1.2300 yesterday. Backing off today. The EURUSD last week broke to levels not seen since the end of 2014.  In the process, the price moved above the 50% retracement of the move down from the 2014 high.  That 50% retracement comes in at 1.21662. 

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Forex technical analysis: What to look for in the EURUSD correction


Author: Greg Michalowski
2
The high got close to 1.2300 yesterday. Backing off today. The EURUSD last week broke to levels not seen since the end of 2014.  In the process, the price moved above the 50% retracement of the move down from the 2014 high.  That 50% retracement comes in at 1.21662. 

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Author: Adam Button
2

ECB's Villeroy: Recent euro appreciation is a source of uncertainty

Villeroy in Boersen Zeitung - Eurozone still needs an accommodative monetary policy but can gradually reduce intensity of mon pol support - Recent euro increase requires monitoring because of its downward effects on the prices of imported goods Lows of the day for the euro on the headlines. A bit of caution and a bit of jawboning.

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ECB's Villeroy: Recent euro appreciation is a source of uncertainty


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
2
Villeroy in Boersen Zeitung - Eurozone still needs an accommodative monetary policy but can gradually reduce intensity of mon pol support - Recent euro increase requires monitoring because of its downward effects on the prices of imported goods Lows of the day for the euro on the headlines. A bit of caution and a bit of jawboning.

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Author: Adam Button
4

This quarter should dispel the myth that corporate earnings are tied to reality

Changing the timing of gains and losses is a cinch The new US tax law is a window into the reality of corporate tax law. Citigroup today announced a $18.3 billion loss in the fourth quarter, its worst quarter ever (and Citi has had a lot of bad quarters).

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This quarter should dispel the myth that corporate earnings are tied to reality


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
4
Changing the timing of gains and losses is a cinch The new US tax law is a window into the reality of corporate tax law. Citigroup today announced a $18.3 billion loss in the fourth quarter, its worst quarter ever (and Citi has had a lot of bad quarters).

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Author: Mike Paterson

Heads up for NZD traders - Latest GDT auction result due shortly

The Global Dairy Trade auction is currently in progress 16 Jan Results normally around 14.00 GMT No forecasts available but here's a chart for recent results

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Heads up for NZD traders - Latest GDT auction result due shortly


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
0
The Global Dairy Trade auction is currently in progress 16 Jan Results normally around 14.00 GMT No forecasts available but here's a chart for recent results

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Author: Adam Button
1

US January Empire Fed manufacturing index 17.7 vs 19.0 expected

Manufacturing data for the New York area - was 18.0 - Employment 3.8 vs 22.9 in Dec - New orders 11.9 vs 19.0 in Dec - Prices paid 36.2 vs 29.7 prior - Six months conditions 48.6 vs 46.3 prior Slightly lower on the headline but some of the key sub-indexes are much worse. The jump in prices paid could be a sign of things to come, especially with WTI at $64.

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US January Empire Fed manufacturing index 17.7 vs 19.0 expected


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
1
Manufacturing data for the New York area - was 18.0 - Employment 3.8 vs 22.9 in Dec - New orders 11.9 vs 19.0 in Dec - Prices paid 36.2 vs 29.7 prior - Six months conditions 48.6 vs 46.3 prior Slightly lower on the headline but some of the key sub-indexes are much worse. The jump in prices paid could be a sign of things to come, especially with WTI at $64.

Asset 24 View More

Author: Adam Button
1

Empire Fed manufacturing index coming up next

US factor data up next Welcome back to US traders after a three-day weekend. It's a light start after a long weekend with only the Empire Fed on the US calendar today. The dollar is making a bit of a stand and commodities are giving back a bit of the latest gains.

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Empire Fed manufacturing index coming up next


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
1
US factor data up next Welcome back to US traders after a three-day weekend. It's a light start after a long weekend with only the Empire Fed on the US calendar today. The dollar is making a bit of a stand and commodities are giving back a bit of the latest gains.

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Author: Mike Paterson

Citigroup Q4 2017 results beat expectations but report net loss on one-off charge

Citigroup Q4 2017 earnings results just out 16 Jan - Adj EPS $1.28 vs $1.19 exp - revenue $17.26bln vs $17.23bln exp - net loss for the fourth quarter 2017 of $18.3 billion Further to my original post I've now dug out the details and it looks a little different

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Citigroup Q4 2017 results beat expectations but report net loss on one-off charge


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
0
Citigroup Q4 2017 earnings results just out 16 Jan - Adj EPS $1.28 vs $1.19 exp - revenue $17.26bln vs $17.23bln exp - net loss for the fourth quarter 2017 of $18.3 billion Further to my original post I've now dug out the details and it looks a little different

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Author: Mike Paterson
15

UK will be leaving EU says PM May's spokesman

PM May's spokesman speaking to reporters 16 Jan The comment comes in response to when he said that the UK can have a "change of heart" on Brexit and EU still open to UK staying in the EU

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UK will be leaving EU says PM May's spokesman


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
15
PM May's spokesman speaking to reporters 16 Jan The comment comes in response to when he said that the UK can have a "change of heart" on Brexit and EU still open to UK staying in the EU

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Author: Mike Paterson
4

UK's Hammond not aware of any government credit exposure to Carillion

UK fin min Hammond out on the wires 16 Jan - urgently necessary to get UK govt debt levels down in order to cope with future shocks Also out: - govt dept for business says it has asked financial reporting council to investigate the preparation of Carillion's accounts PM May's spokesman:

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UK's Hammond not aware of any government credit exposure to Carillion


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
4
UK fin min Hammond out on the wires 16 Jan - urgently necessary to get UK govt debt levels down in order to cope with future shocks Also out: - govt dept for business says it has asked financial reporting council to investigate the preparation of Carillion's accounts PM May's spokesman:

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Author: Mike Paterson
2

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Greenback feels some love and Bitcoin tumbles

Forex news from the European trading session - 16 January 2018 News: Data: Welcome back to our NA readers and I hope you enjoyed the long w-e. A busy session dominated by a further sell-off in cryptocurrencies due to ongoing concerns over regulatory stances, particularly S Korea and China currently.Bitcoin fell over 18% at one point to post below 11,100 and others were quick to follow.

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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Greenback feels some love and Bitcoin tumbles


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
2
Forex news from the European trading session - 16 January 2018 News: Data: Welcome back to our NA readers and I hope you enjoyed the long w-e. A busy session dominated by a further sell-off in cryptocurrencies due to ongoing concerns over regulatory stances, particularly S Korea and China currently.Bitcoin fell over 18% at one point to post below 11,100 and others were quick to follow.

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Author: Justin Low
14

Cryptocurrencies' bloodbath makes everything else feel like a pinch

If you think the euro fall or metals decline today is bad, this is really something else Before cryptocurrencies became so prominent, a day like this you would see headlines everywhere on the EUR and Euro area yields taking a plunge. If not, you would see headlines on metals being routed and commodities mostly in decline. But we are where we are today, and those declines pale very much in comparison to the crypto-world.

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Cryptocurrencies' bloodbath makes everything else feel like a pinch


Author: Justin Low
Category: News
14
If you think the euro fall or metals decline today is bad, this is really something else Before cryptocurrencies became so prominent, a day like this you would see headlines everywhere on the EUR and Euro area yields taking a plunge. If not, you would see headlines on metals being routed and commodities mostly in decline. But we are where we are today, and those declines pale very much in comparison to the crypto-world.

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Author: Mike Paterson
5

USD demand prevailing as sellers take money off the table

A good day at the office for the greenback so far 16 Jan A bit of profit-taking notable today as Friday's USD sell-off and early follow-on yesterday have failed to maintain momentum.

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USD demand prevailing as sellers take money off the table


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
5
A good day at the office for the greenback so far 16 Jan A bit of profit-taking notable today as Friday's USD sell-off and early follow-on yesterday have failed to maintain momentum.

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Author: Mike Paterson

More from the order boards 16 Jan

Here's the latest on other key pairs 16 Jan Note: Offers = Sellers at these levels. Bids = Buyers at these levels. These orders, and the others I post, are generally good until filled/ level breached.

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More from the order boards 16 Jan


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: Forex Orders
0
Here's the latest on other key pairs 16 Jan Note: Offers = Sellers at these levels. Bids = Buyers at these levels. These orders, and the others I post, are generally good until filled/ level breached.

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Author: Justin Low
14

ECB unlikely to drop pledge to QE program until inflation hits target in next week's meeting - Reuters

Reuters citing an unnamed source on the information Says that the ECB is not going to change its communication in next week's meeting and drop its QE pledge. EUR/USD heading lower on the day touching lows of 1.2208 as the euro falls.

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ECB unlikely to drop pledge to QE program until inflation hits target in next week's meeting - Reuters


Author: Justin Low
Category: News
14
Reuters citing an unnamed source on the information Says that the ECB is not going to change its communication in next week's meeting and drop its QE pledge. EUR/USD heading lower on the day touching lows of 1.2208 as the euro falls.

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Author: Justin Low

EU auditors find that ECB supervision of troubled banks has some flaws

The European Court of Auditors publishes their findings in a report on the ECB's oversight on banks Well, if the ECB isn't prepared to handle a bank crisis then I guess we're all doomed anyway. More regulatory news, nothing too substantial to markets.

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EU auditors find that ECB supervision of troubled banks has some flaws


Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
The European Court of Auditors publishes their findings in a report on the ECB's oversight on banks Well, if the ECB isn't prepared to handle a bank crisis then I guess we're all doomed anyway. More regulatory news, nothing too substantial to markets.

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Author: Justin Low

Italy November trade balance +EUR 4.83 bn vs +EUR 4.95 bn prior

Latest data released by Istat - 16 January 2018 Decent trade surplus number from Italy, but not really a major one in the Eurozone economy and for the EUR for that matter.

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Italy November trade balance +EUR 4.83 bn vs +EUR 4.95 bn prior


Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Latest data released by Istat - 16 January 2018 Decent trade surplus number from Italy, but not really a major one in the Eurozone economy and for the EUR for that matter.

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Author: Mike Paterson
5

Bitcoin falls further to post losses on the day of 18%

Bitcoin and other crypto currencies not having a good time of it 16 Jan - down 18% on Bitstamp Exchange at 11,191.59 - on course for biggest one-day fall in 3 years One for you crypto heads. Good luck !

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Bitcoin falls further to post losses on the day of 18%


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
5
Bitcoin and other crypto currencies not having a good time of it 16 Jan - down 18% on Bitstamp Exchange at 11,191.59 - on course for biggest one-day fall in 3 years One for you crypto heads. Good luck !

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Author: Justin Low
1

Moody's: Still positive on European economic growth

Some comments by Moody's on the Euro area - 16 January 2018 Touching on the majority of political issues surrounding the EU, but just some general comments to the narrative.

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Moody's: Still positive on European economic growth


Author: Justin Low
Category: News
1
Some comments by Moody's on the Euro area - 16 January 2018 Touching on the majority of political issues surrounding the EU, but just some general comments to the narrative.

Asset 24 View More

Author: Mike Paterson
5

UK December CPI yy 3.0% vs 3.0% expected

UK December CPI/RPI/PPI data now out 16 Jan - 3.1% prev - mm  0.4% vs 0.4% exp vs 0.3% prev - yy 2.7% vs 2.8% exp/prev - mm  0.8% vs 0.6% exp vs 0.2% prev Core CPI and CPIH lower but GBP unfazed for the moment at 1.3770 and 0.8880. Should provide a few GBP sellers though but higher RPI will help to temper losses

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UK December CPI yy 3.0% vs 3.0% expected


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
5
UK December CPI/RPI/PPI data now out 16 Jan - 3.1% prev - mm  0.4% vs 0.4% exp vs 0.3% prev - yy 2.7% vs 2.8% exp/prev - mm  0.8% vs 0.6% exp vs 0.2% prev Core CPI and CPIH lower but GBP unfazed for the moment at 1.3770 and 0.8880. Should provide a few GBP sellers though but higher RPI will help to temper losses

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Author: Justin Low

UK December PPI output NSA m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% expected

Latest producer price index figures in the UK for the month of December - released by ONS - 16 January 2018 Sterling falls, as CPI meets expectations and falls on the month - more to do with the core inflation number being under expectations. But it's a minor dip - 15 pips!

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UK December PPI output NSA m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% expected


Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Latest producer price index figures in the UK for the month of December - released by ONS - 16 January 2018 Sterling falls, as CPI meets expectations and falls on the month - more to do with the core inflation number being under expectations. But it's a minor dip - 15 pips!

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Author: Mike Paterson
1

Coming up at the bottom of the hour: UK inflation data

Yes folks, it's your UK data risk moment at 09.30 GMT The BOE are inflation to peak around these levels and around this time. A stronger report today would certainly be regarded as hawkish though while a softer one will continue to keep the doves prevailing at the BOE meeting/announcement.

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Coming up at the bottom of the hour: UK inflation data


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: News
1
Yes folks, it's your UK data risk moment at 09.30 GMT The BOE are inflation to peak around these levels and around this time. A stronger report today would certainly be regarded as hawkish though while a softer one will continue to keep the doves prevailing at the BOE meeting/announcement.

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Author: Justin Low

Italy December final CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% prelim

Final readings on Italy inflation data by Istat - 16 January 2018 In line with expectations on all fronts. Nothing to see here, really. EUR/USD now at 1.2237 just ranging a little after the initial dip from news that Berlin's SPD section has rejected coalition talks with Merkel's Conservatives bloc.

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Italy December final CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% prelim


Author: Justin Low
Category: News
0
Final readings on Italy inflation data by Istat - 16 January 2018 In line with expectations on all fronts. Nothing to see here, really. EUR/USD now at 1.2237 just ranging a little after the initial dip from news that Berlin's SPD section has rejected coalition talks with Merkel's Conservatives bloc.

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Author: Mike Paterson

EURGBP orders 16 Jan - German politics and UK inflation data in play

Currently 0.8878 delicately poised after earlier SPD-led tumble to 0.8862 UK inflation data out at 09.30 GMT Offers:  0.8900 0.8910 0.8930 0.8950 0.8980 0.9000 Bids:    0.8830 

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EURGBP orders 16 Jan - German politics and UK inflation data in play


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: Forex Orders
0
Currently 0.8878 delicately poised after earlier SPD-led tumble to 0.8862 UK inflation data out at 09.30 GMT Offers:  0.8900 0.8910 0.8930 0.8950 0.8980 0.9000 Bids:    0.8830 

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