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Author: Adam Button
15

That's the key to the productivity problem

Are you more worried about someone doing you job better? or cheaper?

The answer to that question, to me, is at the heart of the productivity problem. At its core, productivity rises when we get better at doing something.

For most of the past 100 years, the fear was someone doing it better because wages were generally the same. Now, it's all about competing with third world countries on labor cost, and it's impossible.

The same question can be asked of companies. They aren't focused on making a better product at the same price, they're focused on building an equivalent product more cheaply. Or they're worried about someone doing whatever they're doing at a fraction of the cost and trying to hang on as long as possible.

If you're a worker, the globalized system isn't a great incentive to learn and improve. For companies, it's not an incentive to build something better. Because no matter how good you get, it's almost-impossible to compete with someone who will work for 10% of the cost. And companies may feel like any investment they spend in development and technology will be stolen or copied.           

What's even scarier is a robot doing it.

Asked on Friday what keeps him up at night, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said, "There is a growing disconnect between our human capital, what it's capable of and the demands of modern employment."

He pointed to the difficulties of competing with automation and how it's necessary to invest in workers to keep up. But at what point do people just give up? The pace of change is terrifying and there's a cloud of hopelessness in portions of the labor and business market.

On Thursday new RBA Governor Philip Lowe highlighted how the same trends are affecting wages. Workers in the western world, he said, have avoided asking for pay rises because they're afraid in an increasingly globalized labor force that doing so might close down the factory.


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Author: Adam Button
6

Look for continued EUR and JPY gains against the US dollar - Credit Suisse

From Credit Suisse: This past week the BoJ extended the life of its fading QE programme 'on the cheap' while the Fed remained cautious, assessing the need for further tightening.  The USD-off lean could persist for now as we approach the first televised presidential debate in the US next week. Indeed, we believe that the markets are rather complacent about the outcome of the elections and expect growing uncertainty ahead of the 8 November vote to add to the USD-headwinds. The US data calendar is fairly light but we have a flurry of Fed speeches. It would take positive data surprises and consistently hawkish comments next week to see the near-term outlook for USD change, however.

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Author: Forex Live
30

Warren Buffett does not trade trend

By Boris Schlossberg at BKForex The other day I came across an article about Warren Buffett's office. The writer catalogued in full detail all of the knick knacks that Buffett has in what was described as "the domain of a mid-level executive in a generic corporation." I knew that Buffett was frugal, but the fact that one of the world's richest men still watches television on cathode ray TV really surprised me.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Canada sales and inflation shockers hurt the loonie

Forex news for US trading on September 23, 2016 The US calendar was limited with the only release being the Markit US Manufacturing PMI. That index came in a bit weaker than expectations and had limited impact. Fed's Rosengren spoke up as well via a post on the Boston Fed's website.  Rosengren was one of three FOMC members who voted to raise rates at the FOMC meeting this week.  His comments were for s soft tightening but the market was in the mood to take the dollar higher - especially against some currencies like the GBP and the CAD, and NZD, that overall, the dollar was more supported in trading today.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
3

US major indices end the week on a sour note

All major indices fall. The major US indices are ending the day lower with the: In the US debt market today, yields were little changed.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

The top 5 releases and events for next weeks trading

What will the market be focused on next week Next week is slow on major economic releases, but central bankers will be making up for the lack of major economic releases.  

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

CFTC commitment of traders: GPB and AUD positions are reduced

Forex positioning and data in the futures market for the close of trading on Tuesday, September 20, 2016 The following are the net speculative positions in the major currencies as of the close of business on Tuesday, September 20,2016.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
2

Crude oil futures end the week down sharply

Down 3.97% on the day. Settles at $44.48, down $1.84 Crude oil futures are down nearly 4% in trading today on reports that the Saudis will not make a deal on output at next weeks meeting in Algiers ().

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Author: Greg Michalowski
2

USDCAD trades at new session highs

Weaker data pushes the pair sharply higher The USDCAD rose sharply on the back of weaker than expected CPI and retail sales today. The price surge has taken the price back into the range that confined the pair until the break on Wednesday.    The price is back in the range (with 1.3128 as the low and 1.3247 as the high).   The pair has also moved above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at the 1.31359 and 1.31565 levels respectively.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
3

Apple falls on report of slow overseas sales

Takes major indices toward lows Apple has been hit hard (down $2.16) on reports from a research firm that iPhone 7 sales overseas are weak.   That has also sent the major indices lower (although getting a little bounce at the moment).

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Forex technical analysis: EURGBP reaching for the highs

Buyers in control The EURGBP is pushing higher in the last few minutes of trading, and in the process is testing the highs for the day at the 0.8675. A move above that level will have traders eyeing the August high of 0.87237 reached on August 16th.  A break of that would be 3 year highs for the pair (last traded on August 7, 2013).

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Author: Adam Button
4

What to do when the USD/JPY range breaks - SocGen

Target 104/104.45 If 100 Holds, Target 95/94.80 If 100 Breaks - SocGen From the technical analysis team at Societe General: In June, USD/JPY tested a multi-year descending trend and graphical levels at 100, which is also the 50% retracement of the 2011-2015 up move. Last month, it formed a hammer, stressing 100 as an important level.

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Author: Adam Button
2

The Iran-Saudi Arabia rift is at the core of the Algiers failure

The WSJ with more headlines suggesting that nothing is coming next week An Iranian official cited by the WSJ said the nation won't freeze output now. They cite 'people familiar' who say the Saudis and Iran have clashed this week. Part of the problem is they couldn't agree on which set of statistics would be used to measure whether or not someone had frozen output.

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Author: Adam Button

Highlights from the Fed Q&A in Philadelphia

Harker, Mester and Lockhart answer questions I will update live. Or . watch it live Lockhart: - I often get bond traders asking me about interest rates at parties, I go stonefaced Mester:

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Baker Hughes US oil rig count 418 vs 416 prior

US drilling rig number for oil and natural gas from Baker hughes The oil rig count is the highest level since Feb 19 2016 The low water mark was down at 316 (on May 27, 2016). So from the low we are up 102 rigs. It is a step in the positive direction, but compared to the boom from 2010 to 2014 when the rigs went from near current levels to 1600, we are no where near that oil rush (see chart below).

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD extends the trading range

London traders exiting for the day/week The EURUSD has extended to new trading day highs as London traders look to exit for the day/week. Yippee! Having said that going from 35 pips to 37 pips is still not all that great. : ( 

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
11

No deals in Algiers say the Saudi's

Here we go part 3 or is it part 4, 5 or 6? A Saudi official puts the pin in yet another load of oil rumours by saying that they don't expect any decisions to be made around the IEF meeting next week.

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Author: Adam Button

European stocks slip to finish a strong week

Minor decline on Friday hardly tarnishes a great week Closing changes for the main European bourses: - German DAX -0.44% - French CAC -0.5% - Spain IBEX -1.2% On the week:

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Author: Adam Button
3

Kashkari: Fed forward guidance can backfire if it's wrong

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari - Forward guidance can undercut the Fed's message if it's consistently wrong - Says he has mixed feelings on the use of forward guidance He's absolutely right. All the dot plots have done is underscore that the people at the FOMC are terrible at forecasting. So now, even with a Fed statement that basically promises a Fed hike in December or sooner, you have the market giving it just a 57.5% chance.

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Author: Adam Button
1

New York Fed downgrades GDP Nowcast

New York Fed sees sluggish growth The Nowcast GDP tracking estimate from the New York Fed has been lowered to 2.3% from 2.8%. Fourth quarter growth has also been lowered to 1.2% from 1.7%.

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Author: Adam Button
3

Exporters will be buying yen next week - BTMU

Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi on USD/JPY trading next week From BTMU: USD/JPY has pulled back to the 100-level, in line with our view, in the wake of the two monetary policy events at the Fed and BoJ this week. Monetary policies in the US and Japan have not diverged further.

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Author: Adam Button

ECB leaning towards QE tweak, no radical changes - RTRS

Reuters unnamed source The crux of the problems is that the ECB will soon struggle to by 80 billion euros per month of bonds because of restrictions on which countries and maturities it can buy along with limits on how much of each issue it can own.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
2

France's Sapin: We will respect EU commitments on deficit reduction

There's a first time for everything ;-) Stop sniggering at the back. Meanwhile, Herr Schaeuble has just said that he'll show Boris Johnson a copy of the Lisbon Treaty to show there is a link between free movement and access to the single market.

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