Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Ever since Australian Q3 GDP came in negative concerns have been heightened for the Q4 GDP result

If Q4 GDP comes in negative Australia will have met the conditions for a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP)
The data today ... reminder if you need:
Westpac's take on the data:
  • We have upgraded our Q4 GDP forecast to 0.7%qtr, 1.9%, up from 0.4% qtr
  • The substantial upside on company profits boosts our estimate of GDP on an income basis materially, more than offsetting the downside on wage incomes
  • Our estimate of GDP on an expenditure basis was rounded-up due to the slightly less negative impact of inventories
  • Tomorrow, data on net exports and public demand will provide  further guidance to risks around our forecast, ahead of the National Accounts on Wednesday

Tomorrow's data will provide the final (known) inputs, and we'll have a better idea ... so stay tuned (or come tomorrow) ....

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

WSJ on the BOJ: World’s Most Radical Experiment in Monetary Policy Isn’t Working

The Wall Street Journal on the Bank of Japan's easing efforts: And, the piece adds: More: - Japan remains definitively stuck - Japan is nearly four years into a Central Bank stimulus effort involving printing trillions of yen and guiding interest rates into negative territory, perhaps the globe's most aggressive such efforts under way

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.8814 (vs. Friday at 6.8655)

People's Bank of China OMOs for today: A weakening of the yuan against the USD today from the People's Bank of China. ps. the CNY against its basket was set at 93.84 on Friday (down compared with its 94.21 the previous Friday)

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
3

Australia data: Q4 Inventories +0.3% q/q (expected +0.5%)

Inventory numbers feed into the GDP calculation (due on Wednesday this week, ) preview here Q4 Inventories, - expected +0.5% q/q, prior +0.8% There had been concerns that inventories would come in at a negative reading q/q (though note the consensus amongst analysts was for a 0.5% rise q/q as noted in the post headline). While the result has come in at a miss it does nevertheless augur well for a decent result on the Q4 GDP. Recall Q3 GDP was a negative q/q, which if followed by a negative in Q4 would constitute a 'technical recession' (2 consecutive quarters of negative q/q GDP). This looks unlikely now.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Australia data: Q4 Company profits: +20.1% q/q (expected +8.0%)

Company Operating Profit for the October to December quarter Inventory data on a separate post   Yes, up 20.1% q/q, not a typo - Up 26.2% y/y - Mining company profits are up (big time) with surging commodity prices ... volumes are not up anywhere near as much As part of this data release is 'Wages and salaries' for Q4

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
13

GBP continues to fall, below 1.2400 in early Tokyo

GBP/USD has been on the slide: Early Tokyo FX price update ... GBP the biggest loser And its gone further, its dipped under 1.2400 but is slightly above as I update

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
2

LSE says proposed merger with Deutsche Boerse unlikely to be approved by EU

A London Stock Exchange statement on Sunday - Proposed merger with Deutsche Boerse is unlikely to be approved by the European Commission - LSE says it will continue work on the merger with Deutsche Boerse but its will be impossible unless the EU changes its position

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Economic data due from Asia today

Very little on the calendar today, Australian 'partial' GDP indicators is about it 0030GMT - Australia - Company profits and inventories for Q4 - Company Operating Profit, expected +8.0% q/q prior +1.0% 9the big jump expected in today's result is mainly due to the big surge in commodity prices, mining profits to be much higher) Q4 Inventories, expected +0.5% q/q, prior +0.8%

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says budget will not cut any entitlements

Steven Mnuchin speaking in an interview on Sunday - Said the budget plan would not seek cuts to federal benefits programs (eg. Social Security and Medicare) - Mnuchin said Trump would use a speech to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night to

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
16

Trade ideas thread - Monday 27 February 2017

Welcome again to the new week! Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:        

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

Weekend: Sweden bank tax plan, Italy economy minister

Some weekend pieces from Europe: Sweden's Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson said the government will draft a new bank tax proposal - Its initial proposal was scrapped

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
3

Monday morning FX - 27 February 2017 - foreign exchange prices, early indication

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all, welcome to the (very early) new FX week. As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin. Liquidity improves as more Asian centres come on online ... until then prices are liable to swing around on not too much at all.Price guide:

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Author: Mike Paterson
1

BOE's Saunders says Brexit will have long-term "modest adverse" impact on UK GDP

BOE external MPC member MichaeL Saunders speaking in Scotland - absence of a credit freeze after the Brexit vote was the main factor behind the unexpected resilience of the UK economy Some would argue though that the additional easing was a) unnecessary, b) premature and c) potentially damaging in the longer term

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Fitch affirms Greece at CCC

Greek complying with terms of European Stability Mechanism program

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