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Author: Adam Button

August is the worst month for AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell to the lowest levels since the crisis last week; it could fall further. AUD/USD averaged a 1.87% decline in August over the past decade.

It's all about China and commodity prices at the moment. The Shanghai composite index is down 10% in the past two days and that points to trouble ahead. Seasonally, August is also the third worst month for Chinese stocks.

But lost in all the focus on Shanghai is the slump in metals prices. Base metals are trading at cycle lows and iron ore continues to struggle.

It's tough to sell after the five-cent decline in July but August seasonals are poor for the Australian dollar.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

May 2015 US Case Shiller HPI 20 city -0.2% vs 0.3% exp m/m SA

Details of US house prices from Case/Shiller - Prior 0.3%. Revised to 0.0% - 4.9% vs 5.6% exp y/y. Prior 4.9% - NSA 1.1% vs 1.3% exp m/m. Prior 1.1% - US HPI 0.04% vs 0.10% exp m/m> prior -0.02%. Revised to +0.03% Nothing bubblicious for the Fed to worry about in these numbers

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

ECB gives green light to Greek stock market re-opening

Greek stock exchange spokeswoman on Bloomberg - ECB approves Greek proposals for ASE to re-open No details on whether there's going to be any controls put in place as of yet

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Author: Adam Button
1

August forex seasonals: A crude time of year

No respite for oil WTI crude fell 17% in July. We about the potential opportunity to sell on seasonals at the start of the month and it turned out to be the best trade in any market.

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Author: Adam Button
1

August forex seasonals: Cracks in cable

August is the worst month for GBP/USD over the past 9 years The final five months of the year are the time of discontent for cable bulls. This year is setting up much the same way as 2014. The Bank of England is talking hawkishly but the economy doesn't yet have the numbers to back it up.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

June 2015 Canada PPI 0.5% vs 0.4% exp m/m

Details of the June 2015 Canada PPI data report 28 July 2015 - Prior 0.5% - -0.9% vs -1.2% exp y/y. prior -1.3% - Raw materials 0.0% vs 1.0% exp m/m. Prior 4.4% The rate of price falls seems to be reducing, though raw materials are still very much cheaper. As long as input costs match or are lower too there's no real effect on margins

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

Ford gets some love from the US consumer while UPS sees slower US growth

Two earnings reports give a clue about the US economy Keeping with the consumer theme, Ford motors announced record profits moments ago which were helped by strong North American sales. They posted Q2 earnings of $0.47 vs $0.37 expected, and revenue of $37.3bn vs $35.3bn exp. That was despite a slowdown in Chinese sales which has forced them to downgrade their 2015 Chinese sales forecasts to a 23/24m range from 24.5/26.5m

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
9

UK consumer gives the Bank of England another reason to tick the rate rise column

Brits get back to their conquering best Did you know that there are only 22 countries in the world that we haven't invaded? Us Brits like to travel, it's in our blood. Ok, I'll admit that one of the main reasons is the often crappy weather we get but I digress, when we get half a chance we pack up the string vests and knotted hankies and head to the nearest airport

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Author: Mike Paterson

EURGBP heads south after UK Q2 GDP

And now getting another kick on from softer euro as EURUSD takes out 1.1050 support Bids/support at 0.7100 and 0.7080-85 now history as the pair gets a double whammy to push lower

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

Progress continues to be made towards Greek program says EU

One of our daily EU/Greek updates - Cooperation with Greek authorities is working smoothly - Sees no fixed deadline, sees a deal in 2nd week of August - Premature to specify further Greek prior actions That's EU's Andreeva on Bloomers and separately Reuters report a source saying that Greece is awaiting ECB consent to reopen the stock market, but is uncertain if that can be done Wednesday

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Author: Reece Marini
2

AUDUSD: Bears continue to sell into 1:1 rallies

The bears have continued to sell into 1:1 rallies several weeks with the most recent 1:1 (Blue) attracting plenty of selling interest early last week. The most important level to keep a close eye on in this degree is the 1:1 (Yellow) that comes in at 0.7415, as long as the market stays below this level the current downtrend will remain intact and the bears in full control.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

UK GDP can be such a taxing affair

No fireworks from the pound after GDP but some relief from the numbers Less than half the data that makes up the final GDP is used for the preliminary data so, as Mike correctly pointed out, the revisions can mean more than the flash numbers.

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Author: Mike Paterson
1

More from the order boards 28 July

Here's the latest on some other key pairs USDCHF currently 0.9645 still underpinned as EURCHF marches higherSellersBuyers  0.9660 0.9680 0.9700 0.9730 0.9750 0.9780 0.9800 EURCHF currently 1.0669 after 1.0689 highs yesterday. Seems like the SNB having its way stillSellers  Buyers

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
5

Gertjan W Vlieghe appointed to the BOE MPC

Reuters reporting the new member replacing David Miles No idea how to pronounce his surname (Vlee-ga, Vli-ga?). We'll call him Gertie from now on ;-) From the BOE

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
7

Q2 2015 UK GDP prelim 0.7% vs 0.7% exp q/q

Q2 2015 UK GDP preliminary data report 28 July 2015 - 2.6% vs 2.6% exp y/y. Prior 2.9% - May Index of services 00.3% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior  0.2% - 0.4% vs 0.5% exp 3m/3m. Prior 0.5% Bang on the money which has brought a 'relief that it wasn't bad' reaction in GBPUSD. We're up to 1.5560 from 1.5523

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Author: Mike Paterson

Italian business confidence July 103.6 vs 103.7 exp

Latest confidence data now out - 103.9 prev - consumer conf 106.5  vs 109.00 exp vs 109.3 prev from 109.5 - economic sentiment  104.3 vs 104.7 prev from 104.3 Not key data. One for filing under "general picture"

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Author: Mike Paterson

AUDUSD orders 28 July

Currently 0.7302 finding demand into 0.7250 still but struggling above 0.7325 Offers   0.7325-30 0.7360 0.7385 0.7400 0.7420-25 0.7450 Bids    0.7280 0.7265 0.7250 0.7230 0.7200  0.7180 0.7150

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Author: Mike Paterson

EURJPY orders 28 July

Currently 136.78 having found 137.00 a step too far again in a tight range for the moment Bids  136.50

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