26 minutes ago | January 29th, 2015 07:45:25 GMT.

Kuroda says it’s too early to discuss exit strategy


Of course it is.. Don’t know why anyone would be stupid enough to ask the question

  • may reach 2% target earlier or later due to oil prices

Repetition time again from my best mate

How long has he got left in the job btw?

  • CPI likely to reach 2% in or around FY 2015
  • BOJ still halfway to meet price target
  • exit strategy depends on economy. market ansd prices

Anything else you want to throw in there my ol’ mucker?

USDJPY 117.67 EURJPY 132.87

Kuroda- Keep awake at the back of the room please

Kuroda- Keep awake at the back of the room please


31 minutes ago | January 29th, 2015 07:41:12 GMT.

Trading Ideas – European session 29 Jan


Not a whole lot going on so far but hopefully things will pick up soon enough

In the meantime let us have your current thoughts and trading ideas after FOMC/RBNZ

This one’s for me. And hey, it’s getting light outside. Hurrah!



41 minutes ago | January 29th, 2015 07:30:50 GMT.

AUSDUSD finds support into 0.7850 again


It’s been a dismal Asian session for the Aussie $ but the slide from above 0.7900 seems to have found some support at 0.7850 again

Low so far 0.7854  near lows seen on 26 Jan and currently 0.7870

Expect resistance/offers now nearby around 0.7885 and more into  0.7900-10 from whence it came

A break of 0.7850 will bring some stop loss selling with it and we should then expect an attack on new lows into 0.7800-25

AUDUSD monthly 29 Jan

AUDUSD monthly 29 Jan


1 hour ago | January 29th, 2015 07:00:46 GMT.

Data coming up in this session 29 Jan


G’day one and all

Is it Friday yet ?

A long month and even longer week so far brings us little from the Fed but hey, no one is too surprised by that surely?

Datawise today  we have German unemployment and flash CPI as our main focus this morning with US initial jobless claims and pending home sales later

As always I wish you a great session

Times GMT

Economic Data (1) 29 Jan jpg

Economic Data (1) 29 Jan jpg

Economic Data (2) 29 Jan jpg

Economic Data (3) 29 Jan jpg

Economic Data (3) 29 Jan jpg


1 hour ago | January 29th, 2015 06:36:17 GMT.

BOJ’s Kuroda says they still aim to meet price target as soon as possible


of course you do.. Bless

Ya da ya da ya da

  • BOJ paying attention to output gap, inflation expectations
  • CPI likely to reach 2% in or around FY 2015
  • underlying trend in CPI is continuing
  • falling oil prices a big plus for Japan’s economy
  • BOJ easing is having intended effect

That last comment will be referring to sleeping through alarms then. One day I’m going to get a Kuroda clock that wakes me up with something of interest.. Will be a long time coming though

BOJ gov boring speaking in parliament just now

USDJPY still 117.70

Kuroda- looking about as interested as I am in what he has to say

Kuroda- looking about as interested as I am in what he has to say


3 hours ago | January 29th, 2015 04:32:20 GMT.

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Reserve Bank of New Zealand shift to neutral knocks NZD, AUD lower


Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 29 January 2015

The early part of the session saw a lower NZD and AUD, with the policy meeting from the RBNZ resulting in a move away from their hawkish bias and more response to an overnight article in the Australian press saying an RBA rate hike next week is almost certain (even though it isn’t).

AUD and NZD barely recovered throughout the course of the rest of the session, and the AUD/USD is right on session lows as I complete the wrap. markets are now pricing in a circa 60% probability of an RBA rate cut on Tuesday.

USD/CHF traded higher during the day, up just more than 70 points from earlier lows. EUR/USD and GBP/USD both ticked a little higher, but not by much at all and both are at session lows (below earlier lows) (as of writing).

USD/JPY (and the Nikeei) are both higher, USD/JPY testing above 118.00 before stabilising just below. EUR/JPY net benefited on the day from the USD/JPY dragging it up.

Oil ticked a little higher, while gold lost just a few dollars.


4 hours ago | January 29th, 2015 04:01:20 GMT.

“The Case for Holding a Fed News Conference at Every Meeting “


The Wall Street Journal with an interesting article:

  • The head of the Federal Reserve holds a press briefing after four of the central bank’s eight meetings each year
  • Despite assurances from both Mr. Bernanke and his successor, Janet Yellen, that policy makers could snap into action at any time, many analysts and investors have come to believe the Fed will wait for a meeting with a news conference to make a major move.
  • This expectation appears built into many economists’ forecasts for a first Fed interest-rate increase. In their notes to clients, they generally stick to either June, September or December—all meetings with press conferences.
  • Andrew Levin, a senior research fellow at the International Monetary Fund says the Federal Open Market Committee should really think about holding a news conference after every meeting
  • “Thus, it would seem sensible to start holding a press conference in conjunction with every FOMC meeting. After all, such press conferences are invaluable for explaining the Committee’s outlook and policy judgments”

One thing that jumps out at me from the article is this …

  • “Despite assurances from both Mr. Bernanke and his successor, Janet Yellen, that policy makers could snap into action at any time” … “many analysts and investors have come to believe the Fed will wait for a meeting with a news conference to make a major move”.


I think maybe the case isn’t so much for a press conference after each meeting (though I have no objections to this) as for employing analysts and investors who aren’t so naive.

Singapore didn’t even wait for a meeting, let alone a press conference

Neither did India

Oh, yeah. Any of these analysts even heard of the Swiss National Bank?

I need a cup of tea.

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