Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY corrects to 100 hour MA, but....

.... momentum slows. Back below the MA target. The   BOJ kept policy unchanges, increased growth projections but lowered inflation expectations. The USDJPY moved higher before the release and extended above its 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) after the release.  However, we have now seen the price comes back down below the 100 hour MA at 112.24. The last three hourly bars have closed below the MA line.  That raises a red flag for the dip buyers.   

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Author: Adam Button
34

Draghi is losing the battle to hold down the euro

Draghi tries to stay dovish The market can sense when a central banker has played his final card. Draghi is still talking about the potential to do more. He is carefully avoiding anything that could be a hint of a hiking down the road.

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Author: Adam Button
1

South Africa cuts rates to 6.75% from 7.00%

South Africa lowers rates - 4 members voted for rate cut - Future decisions depend on data - Risks to growth forecasts on the downside This was a surprise, no change was expected.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
7

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD rebounds as Draghi maybe not so dovish

Risks predominantly due to global factors and reform pace.   He encourages more structural reforms to keep the economy going. Technically, the pair did not go below the 50% retracement level at 1.1476 and stayed above the 1.1435-65 area as well.   In addition, the move back above the 1.1500 level and the 100 hour MA helped technically. 

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Author: Adam Button
36

Draghi Q&A: We were unanimous in no changes to forward guidance

Draghi answers questions - We were unanimous in not outlining a timeline [on tapering] - We aren't there yet - We need patience - Longer-term yields have risen but are still low by historical standards This jump in the euro is starting to look more like dip-buying than a reaction to anything Draghi is saying. EUR/USD quickly up to 1.1550.

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Author: Adam Button
34

Draghi: Incoming information confirms strengthening of economy that has been broadening

Draghi opening statement highlights - We confirmed asset purchases will continue at least through December - Purchases will continue until ECB sees sustained inflation pickup He's working hard to be dovish here but his big-picture optimism gave the euro a lift. The line about a 'very substantial degree' is word-for-word from the June 8 opening statement.

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Author: Adam Button
1

July Philly Fed 19.5 vs 23.0 expected

Philly Fed business outlook - Lowest since Nov 2016 - Prior was 27.6 - Capex 42.0 vs 28.6 prior - Employment 10.9 vs 16.1 prior - Prices paid 19.1 vs 23.6 prior That 'new orders' number is terrible.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

The USD is the strongest. The GBP is the weakest.  The snapshot of the strongest and the weakest show that the USD is the strongest while the GBP is the weakest.   The GBP fell before the retail sales on Brexit concerns (and less favorable technicals) and the better did not do enough to turn the tide to the upside, and the selling returned (). The USD is seeing some upside momentum after its recent declines.  The USDJPY's fall below the 50% retracement, 100 and 200 day MsA yesterday (at 111.637 to 111.88) could not be sustained and we are seeing a rebound in that pair.  The AUDUSD also moved lower after their employment data came in as expected.  

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Author: Adam Button
4

At some point Draghi will get tired of the pussyfooting

Draghi press conference coming up The ECB left its asset purchases unchanged and maintained the language saying its ready to increase the size or duration of QE if required. There was speculation the ECB would take out the reference to 'size', 'duration' or both but they didn't and that's why the euro is lower.

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Author: Mike Paterson
32

ECB leaves key interest rates and QE on hold

ECB interest rate announcement now out 20 July - main refinancing rate 0.0% - marginal lending facility 0.25% - deposit facility  -0.4% - asset purchase target EUR 60bln

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Author: Mike Paterson
4

EU's Barnier says Brexit talks waiting on UK to clarify commitments

EU Brexit negotiator out with a press conference 20 July - next Brexit talks must clarify reasons for disagreement over citizens rights - EU insists on role of European court The clock's ticking and they can't even get that far in 2 rounds of talks? Ouch.

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Author: Mike Paterson
2

UK's Fox says it's very important to keep US interested in open free trade

UK trade minister Liam Fox out with a statement 20 July Good luck with that one. - UK and India undertaking a "trade audit" - will exchange views in Sept Meanwhile UK govt says Brexit repeal bill (legislation to transpose EU law into UK law) will next be debated on 7 Sept.

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Author: Mike Paterson
34

Jury out on Trump according to latest Reuters/IPSOS poll

Results from latest Reuters/IPSOS poll now out 20 July - 88% said they would vote from him again if 2016 elections held today - 12% would not vote for him - 7% don't know I think I probably know the answer to this but would our readers who voted for Trump vote for him again now knowing all we have learned since the election?

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Author: Mike Paterson
4

More from the order boards 20 July

Here's the latest on other key pairs 20 July 0.9577 near session highs. USDCHF:  Offers: 0.9580 0.9660 0.9680  0.9600 0.9630 0.9700 Bids:  0.9530 0.9480 0.9460

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Author: Mike Paterson
11

Germany issues revised travel guidance for Turkey

German foreign ministry out with a statement 20 July - warns German citizens to be more careful - Turkey not always informing govt of arrests of German citizens in timely dashion

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Author: Mike Paterson
15

Pound under pressure again despite better retail sales data

We're seeing GBP sellers return after the post-data rally 20 July GBPUSD currently 1.2980 again after failing to get back over the (now pivotal given the pre-data tumble from there) 1.3020 area. EURGBP back up from 0.8834 lows to post 0.8861.

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Author: Mike Paterson

Forex option contract expiries for today 20 July

Notable expiries for the 14.00 GMT cut today  20 July - EURUSD: - USDJPY: 111.65 (460m) 112.00 (390m) - GBPUSD: 1.3000 (GBP 360m) 1.3100 (400m) 1.3400 (395m) Those USDJPY contracts adding to the demand down there seen yesterday and the order board.

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Author: Mike Paterson
41

UK June retail sales mm +0.6% vs +0.4% exp

UK June retail sales  data now out 20 July - prev 1.1% rev up from -1.2% - yy 2.9% vs 2.5% exp vs 0.9% prev - core retails ex auto fuel mm 0.9% vs 0.5% exp vs -1.5% prev rev up from -1.6% Market caught short with the upside risk as per my with a bad number pre-empted.

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