Forex trading headlines for Asia Thursday 21 August 2014
Someone in New York forgot to turn the market off when they left the office today, which was nice.
Overnight moves extended a little further in the session here today. EUR and GBP both came off a little further, as did the CHF and CAD. GBP/USD is on its lows as I write.
USD/JPY, meanwhile ground it out for another few points gain before settling sideways ahead of bigger sellers at 104.00 and around there.
Bigger moves for AUD and NZD, though. The big data point focus in the markets today was the HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI (see bullets, above), which came in at a 3-month low and saw the AUD marked down a quarter of a US cent or so. It had been drifting lower lower in the minutes leading up to the data release. NZD, too, was heavier on the session, spiking briefly below 0.8350 a couple of time before stabilising. It was the AUD that was the bigger loser of the two on the session, though.
The weaker PMI flash from China impacted Chinese stocks, the Shanghai Composite off around 0.3% and the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 0.7%. The Nikkei liked the yen fall overnight, though, with a good size gain from yesterday.
BNZ economists say:
- A lower currency would remove one of the key impediments (in the market’s mind) to restarting the OCR hiking process at year-end
- The NZ TWI (79.00) is now close to the RBNZ’s Q4 average forecast
- This may start to resonate now the market is pricing only a 20% chance of an OCR hike by year-end and 35 bps by a year’s time
NZD is basically sitting just above recent lows after having made fresh lows this session.
(The TWI is the ‘trade weighted index’ of the currency)
Credit Credit card spending, July.
For the m/m, comes in at -0.9%
For the y/y, comes in at +4.5%
CHINA HSBC/Markit Flash manufacturing PMI for August: 50.3 (I sent the result out on Twitter already, make sure you’re following @ForexLive)
Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & CoHead of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:
- “The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI moderated to 50.3 in August, down from 51.7 in July.
- Both domestic and external new orders rose at slower rates compared to the previous month.
- Meanwhile, disinflationary pressure returned as input and output prices contracted over the month.
- Today’s data suggest that the economic recovery is still continuing but its momentum has slowed again.
- Therefore, industrial demand and investment activity growth will likely stay on a relatively subdued path.
- We think more policy support is needed to help consolidate the recovery.
- Both monetary and fiscal policy should remain accommodative until there is a more sustained rebound in economic activity.”
The AUD was marked lower immediately after it was “looking a wee bit sick” in the minutes leading up to this data release.
Nothing suss (You might think that, I couldn’t possibly comment)
JAPAN – “Flash” Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI for August, 52.4 – a 5-month high
Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit:
- “Latest data registered a modest improvement in business conditions for Japanese manufacturers.
- Output and new orders rose sharply, with both recording the fastest increases since before the implementation of the higher sales tax.
- Payroll numbers returned to steady growth and the highest in the past three months.
- It would seem that the Japanese economy is recovering from the rise in the sales tax and showing more resilience than 17 years ago when a similar tax hike was implemented.”
CHINA flash PMI coming up at 0145GMT
Australia – RBA FX transaction for July:
- +433m ‘market’ (vs. +1271m prior)
- -453m ‘government’ (vs. -1293m prior)
- ‘Other’ +42m
No sign of intervention (not that anyone was expecting any) … just noting.
Meanwhile … AUD on it session lows and looking a wee bit sick …
New Zealand ANZ consumer confidence index for August, -5.4% to 125.5
- Confidence at a 10-month low … but levels still elevated
Founded in 2008, ForexLive.com is the premier forex trading news site offering interesting commentary, opinion and analysis for true FX trading professionals. Get the latest breaking foreign exchange trade news and current updates from active traders daily. ForexLive.com blog posts feature leading edge technical analysis charting tips, forex analysis, and currency pair trading tutorials.
Find out how to take advantage of swings in global foreign exchange markets and see our real-time forex news analysis and reactions to central bank news, economic indicators and world events.
Our authors have years of experience in financial markets and provide diverse, thought-provoking updates relating to news about global macro events and the worldwide forex economic calendar, with frequently updated content that is educational for traders at all levels from beginner to novice that can help traders make better decisions about forex trading.
Our forex news focuses on G10 events, macroeconomic indicators, major equities indexes, treasury and bond yields from around the world, politics as it relates to forex trading and news from the FOMC as well as global central banks in, Europe and Asia.
Learn More About The Forex Live Authors Here and Follow us on Twitter, Facebook & Google+