Author: Greg Michalowski
1

USDJPY trades to yet another low. EURUSD moves back to 1.1800

The dollar has moved lower. The moves corresponds with some concerns about the tax legislation vote. Republican Senators Lee and Rubio have expressed they may vote "no" as a result of the child tax credit proposal. 

In addition, the Obama net neutrality has been repealed. The implications could lead to a "less free" internet, and lead to higher cost/a degradation of services.  

Stocks are now negative across the board with the S&P down -0.1%, the Nasdaq down -0.03% and the Dow down -0.02%. Admittedly, the indices are only down a little but they were higher much higher. The S&P reached a high of 2668.09. It trades at 2659.64. The Nasdaq was up 25 points at the high. The Dow was up about 90 points at the highs.  

The US yield curve continues to flatten. The 2 year is up 3.2 bp while the 30 year is unchanged.

The EURUSD has moved back up toward the 1.1800 level and a retest of the 100 day MA at 1.1801. 

The USDJPY, moved to a new low of 112.08 and below the 50% at 112.29.  

The USDCAD gave up on life above the 200 hour MA. It fell below that MA line and the 50% and tumbles all the way to the 61.8% and old swing area in the 1.2712-21 area. The price has already bounced off the level.  


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Author: Adam Button

USD/CAD sinks to nine-day low after upbeat comments from Poloz

USD/CAD down a full cent The odds of a March Bank of Canada rate hike have risen more than 10 points to above 60% on the back of comments from BOC Governor Poloz.

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USD/CAD sinks to nine-day low after upbeat comments from Poloz


Author: Adam Button
0


USD/CAD down a full cent The odds of a March Bank of Canada rate hike have risen more than 10 points to above 60% on the back of comments from BOC Governor Poloz.

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Pound retreats on post-data reality check
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Author: Adam Button

BOC's Poloz says Bitcoin is more like gambling than investing

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz - Says CAD is respected and wants market to continue to have faith in it There's nothing wrong with gambling if you're right.

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BOC's Poloz says Bitcoin is more like gambling than investing


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz - Says CAD is respected and wants market to continue to have faith in it There's nothing wrong with gambling if you're right.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Republican Senator Lee is undecided on whether to support tax legislation

Lee and Rubio want to make more of child tax credit refundable With the Republican's holding a 52-48 majority, a couple nay votes tips the scales the other way. In reality, there would need to be 3 "nays" as VP Pence breaks any ties and would of course side with the Republicans (and had had to do so multiple times in the administrations 1st year).   

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Republican Senator Lee is undecided on whether to support tax legislation


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: News
0
Lee and Rubio want to make more of child tax credit refundable With the Republican's holding a 52-48 majority, a couple nay votes tips the scales the other way. In reality, there would need to be 3 "nays" as VP Pence breaks any ties and would of course side with the Republicans (and had had to do so multiple times in the administrations 1st year).   

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Goldman Sachs raises 4Q GDP tracking

Cites better retail sales Earlier today, the Atlanta Fed also raised their estimate of GDP for 4Q to 3.3% from 2.9%.   The NY Fed will release their weekly estimate tomorrow. Last week, they had GDP on track for a whooping 3.9% growth.  I wonder what they might be tomorrow after the better data today. 

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Goldman Sachs raises 4Q GDP tracking


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: News
0
Cites better retail sales Earlier today, the Atlanta Fed also raised their estimate of GDP for 4Q to 3.3% from 2.9%.   The NY Fed will release their weekly estimate tomorrow. Last week, they had GDP on track for a whooping 3.9% growth.  I wonder what they might be tomorrow after the better data today. 

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

USDJPY falls to new session lows. Below trend line

New lows for the week too. The USDJPY has moved below the trend line connecting the low from November 27 and yesterday (at 112.56). The pair has also taken out the low from yesterday at 112.45. The price printed 112.415 so far. 

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USDJPY falls to new session lows. Below trend line


Author: Greg Michalowski
1
New lows for the week too. The USDJPY has moved below the trend line connecting the low from November 27 and yesterday (at 112.56). The pair has also taken out the low from yesterday at 112.45. The price printed 112.415 so far. 

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Author: Greg Michalowski

BOC Poloz: increasingly confident economy will need less monetary stimulus over time


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
0
Headlines from the BOC's Poloz

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Author: Adam Button

BOC's Poloz: Increasingly confident economy will need less stimulus over time

Comments from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz in Toronto - Reiterates that BOC will 'continue to be cautious' on rates - Labor market slack poses downside risks to inflation forecast There is something for everyone here but the main thrust is more optimistic and a bit more hawkish.

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BOC's Poloz: Increasingly confident economy will need less stimulus over time


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Comments from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz in Toronto - Reiterates that BOC will 'continue to be cautious' on rates - Labor market slack poses downside risks to inflation forecast There is something for everyone here but the main thrust is more optimistic and a bit more hawkish.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Bank of France comes out with own growth and inflation forecasts

France estimates for growth and inflation The Bank of France is out with forecasts for growth and inflation for their country:

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Bank of France comes out with own growth and inflation forecasts


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: News
0
France estimates for growth and inflation The Bank of France is out with forecasts for growth and inflation for their country:

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Author: Greg Michalowski
2

Minority of ECB rate setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating

Hawks were easily outnumbered though: Source There is a story on the wires saying that a minority of ECB rate setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating.  However, those hawks were easily outnumbered.

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Minority of ECB rate setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
2
Hawks were easily outnumbered though: Source There is a story on the wires saying that a minority of ECB rate setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating.  However, those hawks were easily outnumbered.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: EURJPY fell below MAs and trend line. Momentum increased.

Pair has been consolidating at 2017 highs over the last few months The EURJPY has moved below the 100 bar MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the 132.908 and the 132.66 levels respectively. It also cracked below an upward sloping trend line at the 132.91 area. The combination has sent the pair lower.  Risk is now at those level with the 132.66 the best case for the sellers/bears. 

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Forex technical analysis: EURJPY fell below MAs and trend line. Momentum increased.


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Pair has been consolidating at 2017 highs over the last few months The EURJPY has moved below the 100 bar MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the 132.908 and the 132.66 levels respectively. It also cracked below an upward sloping trend line at the 132.91 area. The combination has sent the pair lower.  Risk is now at those level with the 132.66 the best case for the sellers/bears. 

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Author: Greg Michalowski

US stocks have pared their gains. S&P is now negative on the day

Nasdaq is still higher. Dow is unchanged The US stocks have pared their gains.  The S&P index is now trading in the red by about -0.80 points or -0.03%. 

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US stocks have pared their gains. S&P is now negative on the day


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: News
0
Nasdaq is still higher. Dow is unchanged The US stocks have pared their gains.  The S&P index is now trading in the red by about -0.80 points or -0.03%. 

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Author: Greg Michalowski

S&P sees eurozone real GDP growth at 2% in 2018

Not as confident as the ECB forecast from earlier today S&P  is out with their estimate for GDP growth for the eurozone in 2018. They see real GDP growth at 2%. That is lower than the ECB's forecast from earlier today of 2.3%. 

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S&P sees eurozone real GDP growth at 2% in 2018


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: News
0
Not as confident as the ECB forecast from earlier today S&P  is out with their estimate for GDP growth for the eurozone in 2018. They see real GDP growth at 2%. That is lower than the ECB's forecast from earlier today of 2.3%. 

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate back above 3%. Rises to 3.3% for 4Q growth.

Up from 2.9% on the last reading. In their own words: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is  on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after yesterday's Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate back above 3%. Rises to 3.3% for 4Q growth.


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
0
Up from 2.9% on the last reading. In their own words: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is  on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after yesterday's Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: EURGBP tests low for the day/week

EURUSD fall being helped by a decline in the EURGBP too The EURGBP is down testing the low for the day and the low for the week at 0.8772. The move lower is helping/following the EURUSD which just cracked below the 100 hour MA at 1.1777.  Be aware that we just went through the 4 PM London fixing, so that may be having an impact on the pairs.

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Forex technical analysis: EURGBP tests low for the day/week


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
EURUSD fall being helped by a decline in the EURGBP too The EURGBP is down testing the low for the day and the low for the week at 0.8772. The move lower is helping/following the EURUSD which just cracked below the 100 hour MA at 1.1777.  Be aware that we just went through the 4 PM London fixing, so that may be having an impact on the pairs.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD falls back below MA support

Falls back below 100 day MA and 200 hour MA The EURUSD has moved below the 100 day MA and the 200 hour MAs at 1.1802 and 1.1795 respectively.  The price decline has now taken the price toward the 100 hour MA at 1.17769.  The low just printed 1.1778.  A move below opens the downside for the pair. 

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Forex technical analysis: EURUSD falls back below MA support


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Falls back below 100 day MA and 200 hour MA The EURUSD has moved below the 100 day MA and the 200 hour MAs at 1.1802 and 1.1795 respectively.  The price decline has now taken the price toward the 100 hour MA at 1.17769.  The low just printed 1.1778.  A move below opens the downside for the pair. 

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Author: Adam Button

IMF: Fed's future moves in policy rates should be gradual

IMF comments at the regular press briefing - Too early to predict economic impact of US tax cuts - Fed on right track, supports recent decisions As if anyone at the Fed cares what the IMF thinks.

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IMF: Fed's future moves in policy rates should be gradual


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
IMF comments at the regular press briefing - Too early to predict economic impact of US tax cuts - Fed on right track, supports recent decisions As if anyone at the Fed cares what the IMF thinks.

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Author: Adam Button

Two senators to watch on the US tax bill

Rubio and Collins could be sticklers Marco Rubio is upset that the tax reform package will cut taxes for people earning more than $1 million while ignoring a bid he made for expanding the working-family tax benefit.

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Two senators to watch on the US tax bill


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Rubio and Collins could be sticklers Marco Rubio is upset that the tax reform package will cut taxes for people earning more than $1 million while ignoring a bid he made for expanding the working-family tax benefit.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: USDCAD up on the day but staying in up and down range

Yesterday, the price stalled ahead of the 200 hour MA/38.2% retracement The USDCAD is higher on the day, but let's face it, the pair is not exactly racing in one direction or another. The last 6 trading days has seen the price range in a 105 pip trading range. The high reached 1.2891 on Tuesday. The low yesterday stalled just ahead of the low of the range at the 1.27866 level. That level was also home to the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.27972) and the 38.2% of the move from the December 5 low at 1.27866.  

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Forex technical analysis: USDCAD up on the day but staying in up and down range


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Yesterday, the price stalled ahead of the 200 hour MA/38.2% retracement The USDCAD is higher on the day, but let's face it, the pair is not exactly racing in one direction or another. The last 6 trading days has seen the price range in a 105 pip trading range. The high reached 1.2891 on Tuesday. The low yesterday stalled just ahead of the low of the range at the 1.27866 level. That level was also home to the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.27972) and the 38.2% of the move from the December 5 low at 1.27866.  

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Author: Adam Button

US October business inventories -0.1% vs -0.1% expected

October business inventory data - Prior was 0.0% - Inventory-to-sales ratio 1.35 vs 1.36 prior - Business sales +0.6% vs +1.6% prior Not much to get excited about here.

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US October business inventories -0.1% vs -0.1% expected


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
October business inventory data - Prior was 0.0% - Inventory-to-sales ratio 1.35 vs 1.36 prior - Business sales +0.6% vs +1.6% prior Not much to get excited about here.

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Author: Adam Button

US Markit prelim services PMI 52.4 vs 54.7 expected

The US services and manufacturing PMI from Markit - Lowest since Sept 2016 on services - Prior was 54.5 - Manufacturing 55.0 vs 53.9 expected - Prior manufacturing 53.9 Soft on services but strong on manufacturing. The 15-month low is a bit concerning on the services side but it's still well-above 50 and given some of the other strong US metrics, it's probably safe to ignore it (and the market is doing just that).

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US Markit prelim services PMI 52.4 vs 54.7 expected


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
The US services and manufacturing PMI from Markit - Lowest since Sept 2016 on services - Prior was 54.5 - Manufacturing 55.0 vs 53.9 expected - Prior manufacturing 53.9 Soft on services but strong on manufacturing. The 15-month low is a bit concerning on the services side but it's still well-above 50 and given some of the other strong US metrics, it's probably safe to ignore it (and the market is doing just that).

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Author: Adam Button

Up next: US Markit manufacturing and services PMIs

Data due at 9:45 am ET Services are expected to tick up to 54.7

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Up next: US Markit manufacturing and services PMIs


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Data due at 9:45 am ET Services are expected to tick up to 54.7

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY tests trend line in up and down day

Old Trend line at 112.62.  Sellers are trying to push below the line. The USDJPY tumbled in trading yesterday after the market perceived the Fed to be more dovish given their inflation outlook.  The price fell below a lower trend line in the process, but bounced back. 

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Forex technical analysis: USDJPY tests trend line in up and down day


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Old Trend line at 112.62.  Sellers are trying to push below the line. The USDJPY tumbled in trading yesterday after the market perceived the Fed to be more dovish given their inflation outlook.  The price fell below a lower trend line in the process, but bounced back. 

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD tests the 200 hour MA/trend line

Buyers stall the fall The GBPUSD fell - perhaps in sympathy with the EURUSD. The pair moved down to the 200 hour MA at 1.3400 and an old trend line at 1.3393.  The price moved below that trend line earlier in the week and tried to stay below. Yesterday, the price moved back above on the Fed. In the early Asian session, the price retested the trend line and held support.   

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Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD tests the 200 hour MA/trend line


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Buyers stall the fall The GBPUSD fell - perhaps in sympathy with the EURUSD. The pair moved down to the 200 hour MA at 1.3400 and an old trend line at 1.3393.  The price moved below that trend line earlier in the week and tried to stay below. Yesterday, the price moved back above on the Fed. In the early Asian session, the price retested the trend line and held support.   

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Author: Greg Michalowski
6

EURUSD likes the ECB growth bump up. Inflation seen higher but oil/food. It does not like that...

Price moves higher and back down The ECB raised projections for growth (2.3% from 1.8%), and inflation for 2018 at least (from 1.2% to 1.4%) but then said that the gains in inflation are mainly from food and energy.

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EURUSD likes the ECB growth bump up. Inflation seen higher but oil/food. It does not like that...


Author: Greg Michalowski
6
Price moves higher and back down The ECB raised projections for growth (2.3% from 1.8%), and inflation for 2018 at least (from 1.2% to 1.4%) but then said that the gains in inflation are mainly from food and energy.

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