Author: Greg Michalowski

Will they or won't they?  Deutsche Bank and RBC weigh in with their thoughts

Deutsche Bank is out with their thoughts on the Fed. They say:
  • The issue for the Fed is whether policymakers will go against the markets expectations of no change in policy
  • "we are moving towards the markets view"
They add:
  • "While we have not made any change to our September rate forecast (25 bp increase), this projection is under review"
Meanwhile at RBC, they say:
  • the employment report strengthens the narrative of rapidly declining labor market slack and firming wage trends.
  • If the equity markets calm down between now and the September meeting, and the diminished labor slack/rising risks of wage pressures become more of the topic du jour, we see no reason the fed would take a pass on raising rates
They add that it is becoming more difficult to promote easy monetary policy

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Stocks trading near lows. Oil down 1.58% to 46.01 (Oct contract).

S&P down nearly 2% US stocks are trading near low levels. The S&P index is at 1912.50 down 1.98%. The low is at 1911.21.  The Nasdaq composite index is down to 4661.0 or 1.52% on the day. The low is at 4657.82 so far today.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

UBS says Fed central tendencies are being met

Financial conditions become more important in rate hike decision. UBS is out with comments on Fed policy.  They say that since the fed's central tendencies are being met, financial conditions become more important in the rate hike decision.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Fed Fischer details gradual tightening approach to G-20

Comments coming out of G-20 Headlines on newswires talk of Fed's Fischer outlining the Fed gradual, cautious approach to  tightening. This is according to sources familiar with the discussion.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Baker Hughes US oil rig count 864 vs 877 prior

US oil and gas drilling rigs from Baker Hughes Oil price for October deliver are don -0.17% on the day at 46.69. That is off the lows of the day at 45.76

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Author: Greg Michalowski
3

EURUSD on again/off again love affair with 100 day MA continues

Back higher  The EURUSD is back higher after failing again to keep the fire burning below the 100 day MA at the 1.1111 level.  The 5 minute chart shows the action. It is Friday. London is going away and there may have been some squaring..  It is the flows today and the flows kicked in with buyers from what I can see. It is just one of those things. 

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Author: Adam Button
1

Not a pretty day for European stocks

Closing changes for the main European bourses: - German DAX -2.5% - Italy MIB -3.2% - French CAC -2.6% - Spain IBEX -1.7% - UK FTSE -2.3% Shares were flattish for the week heading into Friday.

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Author: Adam Button
15

Cable falls to four-month low in ninth straight day of losses

Technical analysis: GBP/USD breaks below the June low Cable just touched a fresh session low at 1.5165 to break the June low of 1.5171. The inability to hold a significant support level after 9 losses and ahead of the weekend is disconcerting.

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Author: Adam Button

Italy sees 0.3% q/q growth in Q3

Italy's statistical agency forecasts 0.3% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q3 That's 1.2% annualized. Not great but it's growth.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
8

EURUSD and GBPUSD swing more to the downside

EURUSD back below 100 day MA. GBPUSD tests June lows The EURUSD is back below the 100 day MA after toying with the level. That level come s in at 1.11118.  Stay below....

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Author: Adam Button
1

ECB's Nowotny says ABS purchases not as successful as hoped

Nowotny laments the lack of supply When the ECB rolled out ABS purchases at this time last year, they knew that asset securitization in Europe was way behind the US but they believed that ECB buying would stimulate the market.

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Author: Adam Button
3

More good news and the Canadian dollar still can't hold a bid

70 pip drop in USD/CAD erased in minutes A strong featuring a surge in full-time hiring still wasn't enough to sustain any kind of Canadian dollar gains. That was followed by a that did next-to-nothing.

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Author: Adam Button

Canada August Ivey PMI 58.0 vs 53.3 expected

The Ivey manufacturing PMI - Prior was 52.9 - Non-seasonally adjusted index at 55.6 Three days ago the Canadian manufacturing PMI from RBC was at 49.4 compared to 50.8 in July so the market was probably below the 53.3 expected.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
4

AUDUSD tests trend line on hourly

Does not like lower stocks The AUDUSD fell again as it is a risk off trade for that pair when stocks seem wobbly. Technically, the pairs fall after the employment report, went down and looked over an edge against a lower trend line on the hourly chart (see chart below). Shorts seemed to have come in against the level (risk low) and taken some profit on the test. 

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Author: Adam Button
2

G20 communique says will tread carefully on mon pol

G20 communique draft obtained by Reuters: - Welcomes stronger activity in some countries but says global growth falls short of expectations - Confident global recovery will gain speed The bolded sounds like a clear shot at the Fed. The IMF has encouraged them to delay and emerging markets are terrified of capital flight if the Fed hikes. No one would argue the Fed has clearly communicated its next monetary policy move. 

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Author: Adam Button
5

S&P 500 tests the trendline in early decline

The S&P 500 opens 22 points lower to 1930 The S&P 500 is headed for a weekly loss, falling another 1.1% at the open on Friday. We wrote about and another one may be coming soon: The technicals.

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Author: Adam Button
3

Three reasons for a Friday fall in US stock markets

S&P 500 headed for a Friday fall with futures down 26 points 1. Uncertainty reigns If non-farm payrolls was worse, you'd have traders buying stocks expecting a dovish Fed. Or if it was stronger but with weak wage growth, you'd have a different reason to buy. Overall, no one really knows what the Fed is thinking or what's happening with China so the safest place is the sideline.

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