38 minutes ago | August 21st, 2014 03:44:48 GMT

ForexLive Asia Wrap: China HSBC Flash PMI moves to 3-month low


Forex trading headlines for Asia Thursday 21 August 2014


Someone in New York forgot to turn the market off when they left the office today, which was nice.

Overnight moves extended a little further in the session here today. EUR and GBP both came off a little further, as did the CHF and CAD. GBP/USD is on its lows as I write.

USD/JPY, meanwhile ground it out for another few points gain before settling sideways ahead of bigger sellers at 104.00 and around there.

Bigger moves for AUD and NZD, though. The big data point focus in the markets today was the HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI (see bullets, above), which came in at a 3-month low and saw the AUD marked down a quarter of a US cent or so. It had been drifting lower lower in the minutes leading up to the data release. NZD, too, was heavier on the session, spiking briefly below 0.8350 a couple of time before stabilising. It was the AUD that was the bigger loser of the two on the session, though.

The weaker PMI flash from China impacted Chinese stocks, the Shanghai Composite off around 0.3% and the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 0.7%. The Nikkei liked the yen fall overnight, though, with a good size gain from yesterday.


1 hour ago | August 21st, 2014 03:14:01 GMT

BNZ says the lower NZD may remove an impediment to the RBNZ resuming rate hike cycle


BNZ economists say:

  • A lower currency would remove one of the key impediments (in the market’s mind) to restarting the OCR hiking process at year-end

They note:

  • The NZ TWI (79.00) is now close to the RBNZ’s Q4 average forecast
  • This may start to resonate now the market is pricing only a 20% chance of an OCR hike by year-end and 35 bps by a year’s time


NZD is basically sitting just above recent lows after having made fresh lows this session.

(The TWI is the ‘trade weighted index’ of the currency)


2 hours ago | August 21st, 2014 01:48:16 GMT

China HSBC/Markit Flash manufacturing PMI for August: 50.3 (vs. expected 51.5)


CHINA HSBC/Markit Flash manufacturing PMI for August: 50.3 (I sent the result out on Twitter already, make sure you’re following @ForexLive)

  • 3-month low

Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & CoHead of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

  • “The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI moderated to 50.3 in August, down from 51.7 in July.
  • Both domestic and external new orders rose at slower rates compared to the previous month.
  • Meanwhile, disinflationary pressure returned as input and output prices contracted over the month.
  • Today’s data suggest that the economic recovery is still continuing but its momentum has slowed again.
  • Therefore, industrial demand and investment activity growth will likely stay on a relatively subdued path.
  • We think more policy support is needed to help consolidate the recovery.
  • Both monetary and fiscal policy should remain accommodative until there is a more sustained rebound in economic activity.”

HSBC flash manufacturing PMI 21 August 2014-

The AUD was marked lower immediately after it was “looking a wee bit sick” in the minutes leading up to this data release.

Nothing suss (You might think that, I couldn’t possibly comment) :roll:


2 hours ago | August 21st, 2014 01:35:07 GMT

Japan Flash Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI for August 52.4 (expected 51.5)


JAPAN – “Flash” Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI for August, 52.4 – a 5-month high

Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit:

  • “Latest data registered a modest improvement in business conditions for Japanese manufacturers.
  • Output and new orders rose sharply, with both recording the fastest increases since before the implementation of the higher sales tax.
  • Payroll numbers returned to steady growth and the highest in the past three months.
  • It would seem that the Japanese economy is recovering from the rise in the sales tax and showing more resilience than 17 years ago when a similar tax hike was implemented.”

CHINA flash PMI coming up at 0145GMT


2 hours ago | August 21st, 2014 01:33:44 GMT

Australia – RBA FX transaction for July


Australia – RBA FX transaction for July:

  • +433m  ‘market’ (vs. +1271m prior)
  • -453m ‘government’ (vs. -1293m prior)
  • ‘Other’ +42m


No sign of intervention (not that anyone was expecting any) … just noting.


Meanwhile … AUD on it session lows and looking a wee bit sick …


3 hours ago | August 21st, 2014 01:11:01 GMT

USD/JPY & EUR/JPY orders



  • Sellers active at current levels and up to 104.10
  • Buyers 103.60, 50, 40 then 103.00/10

currently 103.80



  • Sellers 137.70 through to 138.15
  • Buyers  137.40/50 then 137.00/15

currently 137.60


3 hours ago | August 21st, 2014 00:53:25 GMT

EUR/USD orders


  • Sellers 1.3270/75 then 1.3300, 1.3325
  • Buyers active around current levels, 1.3240/50/55 then 1.3200/10

Currently 1.3252


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