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Author: Adam Button

Gold surges in broad commodity rally

Gold is up $13 to $1138.

Yesterday I highlighted a potential base in gold at $1118.

"The technicals provide a few reasons for mild optimism here and the overall change in market sentiment could be good for gold once the waves of US dollar buying slow," I wrote.

There had been a second test of support at that level and it looked to be holding. Since then, gold has rallied more than $20 in a series of higher highs including at $10 surge in the past hour.

From here, the key will be the close. Finishing above Wednesday's open of $1140 would highlight a three-candle reversal that would be further confirmed by a rise above $1147.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Dollar taking the weaker Michigan survey well

USDJPY breaks higher (well initially). EURUSD and GBPUSD impacted by EURGBP  The weaker than expected Michigan Sentiment should have weakened the dollar a bit but we are instead seeing a move higher.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Aug final UMich consumer sentiment final 91.9 vs 93.0 expected

Highlights of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey: - Prior was 92.9 - Current conditions 105.1 vs 107.1 prior - Expectations 83.4 vs 83.8 prior The survey closed on Aug 27, which incorporates responses since the latest round of market volatility. A Fed member earlier this week (Dudley) highlighted the importance of the release because it would be the first chance to see the impact of markets on broader economic sentiment.

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Author: Adam Button

How a Japanese day trader made $34 million this week

Trader live-tweeted trades in a legendary run A mystery 36-year-old day trader with the twitter handle  outlined an epic run of trades this week that netted him a fortune,  in a fantastic profile.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

GBPUSD moves below 200 day MA

Taking a look below the MA line The GBPUSD is taking a look below the 200 day MA as Fed's Kocherlakota and Meister sprayed headlines across the newswires. Yesterday, the pair tested the key MA (see green step line on the hourly chart below marked D1 MA:200). Today in the London morning session, it too tested and held. Now the pair is dipping below. .

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

Fed's Kocherlakota says inflation is running very low

Says CPI is well below Fed's target - Fed risks giving the impression it's abandoning inflation target - Fed is sending the message that it's not committed to getting inflation back to target The credibility of the Fed is his fear and that raising before targets are met might reduce that. It follows what I said about the PCE data and Mester touched on it about being proactive. There's members that want to wait to be sure and there's members that want to anticipate.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

US stock market opens softer

US stock market open 28 August 2015 - S&P -5pts to 1982  - Dow -55pts to 16600 - Nasdaq 21pts to 4791 US 10 year yields 2.14% -4bp

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Author: Adam Button
4

Fed's Fischer to speak on CNBC at 11:20 am ET (1520 GMT)

Fed Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer to speak on live TV What does it say that he's scheduled a special appearance on live TV in the midst of a round of market volatility? That's the kind of thing a central banker might do if he wanted to calm markets with a dovish signal before the close.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

Fed's Mester reasonably confident in getting CPI back to 2.0%

Mester speaking to Bloomberg TV at Jackson Hole - Is looking at all the data and market developments - Economy can sustain an increase in interest rates - Mon pol has to be forward looking Cleveland Fed's Lorretta Mester wants to be proactive with policy

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

Higher spending and incomes help offset drop in core PCE

PCE data keeps the inflation puzzle muddled Further signs of a rise in incomes and spending from the US consumer is countered by a fall in prices. That conundrum is not such a bad one for the Fed

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Author: Greg Michalowski

EURUSD trade of the day was selling vs. the 200 day MA. What now

Friday and month end (ish) The EURUSDs trade of the day came on the corrective move to the 200 day MA (green line in the chart below). Traders lined up against the MA and the price rotated lower by about 60 pips.

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Author: Adam Button

OPEC delegates say latest price fall to help reduce oversupply

Unnamed OPEC delegates cited by Reuters: - Two Gulf OPEC delegates see oil around $40-$50 (Brent) until year end, hope it will reach $60 - Delegates say latest fall should reduce over supply should reduce oversupply by year end and help to lift prices OPEC delegates don't have any more idea that you or I about what will happen to oil prices. None of them saw the first (or second) collapse coming.

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Author: Adam Button
1

George "Knows what he's doing" Chouliarakis has a nice ring to it

Dijsselbloem on Greece: - Dijsselbloem: New Greek finance minister "knows what he's doing" - Greek interim government should continue preparing for bailout pending elections Chouliarakis is the interim finance minister.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
2

July 2015 US personal consumption 0.3% vs 0.4% exp m/m

Highlights from the July 2015 US PCE prices data report 28 August 2015 - Prior 0.2% - Unadjusted spending 0.3% vs 0.4% exp. Prior 0.2%. revised to 0.3% - Personal income 0.4% vs 0.4% exp. Prior 0.4% The softer Core PCE will grab the headlines

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Author: Adam Button

Canada July industrial product price +0.7% vs 0.0% expected

Producer price data from StatsCan: - Prior was +0.5% - Raw materials price index -5.9% vs -4.3% expected - Prior raw materials price index 0.0% (revised to +0.2%) Along with plunging commodity prices (negative for inflation), the Bank of Canada is dealing with a plunging currency (positive for inflation).

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Author: Ryan Littlestone

August 2015 German HICP flash 0.1% vs 0.1% exp y/y

August 2015 German HICP data report 28 August 2015 - Prior 0.1% - 0.0% vs -0.1% exp m/m. Prior +0.3% - CPI 0.2% vs 0.2% exp y/y. Prior 0.2% - 0.0% vs -0.1% exp m/m. Prior +0.2% On the breakdown, goods were down 0.9% overall with energy -7.6% from -6.2% and food 0.8% from 0.4%

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