Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Morgan Stanley say they remain bullish on the EUR, and preview Draghi at Jackson Hole later in the coming week:

The headline:
  • Draghi's Speeches In Focus
MS view on EUR is:
  • Bullish
MS point out what to watch in the coming week:
  • German ZEW Survey, PMI, German GDP, German Ifo, ECB's Draghi's Speeches
More:
  • We remain bullish on EUR, seeing EURUSD advance towards 1.25 by 1Q18.
  • Markets are focused on ECB Draghi's speeches in the upcoming week, but ECB sources have suggested in media reports that he will not deliver a new policy message at Jackson Hole, taking risks of a policy surprise out of the equation.
  • The ECB minutes also support the idea that the central bank is happy with the current level of the EUR. Therefore, EUR should see more upside as risk appetite stays supported, European economies' growth outperform, EMU political risks are reduced, and markets hope for a more integrated fiscal and banking union.
"Will not deliver a new policy message ..."
Never underestimate Dr. D

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

ANZ on what to expect from Yellen and Draghi next week (Jackson Hole preview)

ANZ with a look ahead to the week, with the preamble that: the last two weeks confirmed the USD has likely bottomed: What to expect at Jackson Hole: In his speech at the Jackson Hole meeting this week, ECB President Draghi is expected to give further sign of ECB's growing confidence in the euro area economy.

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Author: Adam Button
2

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Bannon bounced, dollar bounces

Forex news for New York trading on August 18, 2017: Markets: - Gold down $1.63 to $1286 after hitting $1301 - S&P 500 down 4 points to 2425 - WTI crude up $1.55 to $48.65 The US dollar wanted change in the White House and it came Friday as Steve Bannon was sent packing. USD/JPY was at the lows of the day at 108.59 ahead of the news and then climbed as much as 100 pips higher before finishing at 109.17.

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Author: Adam Button
3

Bannon not the only one ousted from the White House (or on the way out)

A few other dead-men walking . Steve Bannon is gone from the White House The main thread of speculation now circles around Sebastian Gorka, who is cut from the same cloth as Bannon and worked at Breitbart. He currently serves as a counterterrorism aide to the President. Bloomberg , citing 'two people with knowledge of the situation' that he also on the chopping block.

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Author: Adam Button

CFTC Commitments of Speculators: Big bets against the US dollar trimmed

Forex futures net speculative positions as of the close of business on Tuesday August 15, 2017 - EUR long 79K vs 94K long last week. Longs trimmed 15K - GBP short 32K vs 25K short last week. Shorts increased 7K That's the second big week in a row of heavy short covering in the yen. That was the bad news for the dollar. The good news is that specs are less bearish on the dollar against EUR and CAD. Cable remains a dog.

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Author: Adam Button
4

Five reasons for the biggest jump in oil prices since November

WTI crude climbed $1.62 to $48.71 on Friday Oil was a major mover on Friday in a rally that erased the weekly decline. It was also the largest one-day rally since November 30, when OPEC first announced production curbs.

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Author: Adam Button
4

US government shutdown is the next crisis on the agenda

The debt ceiling battle is coming Goldman Sachs thinks there is a 50% chance of a government shutdown as the US hits the debt ceiling in September. "In the near term, we believe there is a 50% chance of a brief government shutdown, as the president seeks to solidify support among his base by embracing more controversial positions, despite needing Democratic support to pass spending legislation," Goldman economists wrote today. "That said, we expect that the debt limit, which needs to be raised around the same time, will prevent a longer shutdown from occurring."

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Author: Adam Button
6

Australia to regulate cryptocurrencies

The theme of digital currencies in 2018 will be regulation The regulators are coming. I wrote earlier this month that that will be the great battle of 2018. But it's not just US regulators that are getting into the mix, regulators elsewhere are as well.

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Author: Adam Button
5

EUR/USD is topping out - BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas FX Strategy Research on EUR/USD BNP Paribas FX Strategy Research notes that EUR/USD appears to be topping out with momentum model signals that EUR momentum has peaked, while positioning analysis framework suggests EUR/USD positioning is stretched long.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Baker Hughes US oil rig count 763 vs 768 prior

Drillers cut rigs for second week in past three - Prior was 768 - Natural gas rigs 182 vs 181 prior - Total rigs 946 vs 949 prior Oil jumped earlier today on turmoil in Venezuela.

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Author: Adam Button
10

Trump to Bannon: You're fired - multiple reports

ABC News reports that Bannon is done, New York Times says Trump decided to remove him Bannon reportedly submitted his resignation on August 7 and was to be announced at the start of this week but the announcement was delayed due to the events in Virginia, the New York Times reports.

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Author: Adam Button
7

Bannon out at the White House - new report

Drudge Report says Bannon 'moving on' The smoke has turned to 'fired' evidently. The Drudge Report says it has learned that Bannon is out. "Senior advisor moving on after impressive run, the Drudge Report has learned."

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Author: Adam Button
5

Lots of smoke around rumor that Bannon is to be fired

More signs indicate that he's on the way out CNBC's Eamonn Javers reports Bannon isn't on Air Force One along with Trump on his trip to Camp David. He also wasn't with him in Bedminster this week. All the top Trump officials are there except Ivanka, Kushner and Miller.

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Author: Adam Button
57

Steve Bannon could be done, decision imminent - report

White House chief of staff John Kelly could axe Steve Bannon A decision on Steve Bannon's future is imminent with officials expecting him to be fired, according to that just landed.

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Author: Adam Button
7

New York Fed Nowcast Q3 tracking forecast rises to 2.1% from 2.0%

Tracking estimate rises The New York Fed's GDP tracking estimate for Q3 has climbed to the highest since it was initiated in the first week of June. "Positive surprises from retail sales, survey, and industrial production data outweighed negative surprises from housing data," the New York Fed in the release.

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Author: Adam Button
8

Another cable bid evaporates. It's not looking great for the pound

Cable flat on the day as earlier rally erased Disappointment is the story for cable bulls in August and that continues on Friday. The pair hit an 11-month high of 1.3267 on August 2 set the table for what could have been a strong month, especially as the US dollar began to skid.

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Author: Adam Button
2

Fed's Kaplan sees 2017 GDP growth a little above 2%

Kaplan speaking in Dallas - Strength of US consumer is underpinning economy - US household sector has great capacity to spend Shouldn't the aim be to grow GDP-per-capita? I mean, growth is good for corporations and government tax revenues but GDP per capita is the bottom line on how effective your country is and the standard of living. Just bringing in people for the sake of overall growth isn't the solution most people are looking for.

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Author: Adam Button
5

A bad bet on a pipeline led to a $100m loss at Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs trade on natural gas went wrong in Q2 Natural gas is the wild west of the energy market. For a commodity that's so critical, the volatility and longer-term price swings are harrowing.

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Author: Adam Button
5

USD/JPY breaks support, hits lowest since April

USD/JPY hits 108.61 In the end, USD/JPY hardly put up a fight as the pair fell below the double bottom at 108.68 and to a fresh low since April. The April low at 108.13 is crucial now. It's going to come down to the Fed and Jackson Hole but Yellen is about to find herself in a pickle. She can't continue to lean hawkishly without any help from the data. If she eases back to neutral, the dollar will be battered.

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Author: Adam Button
4

This isn't a good sign for USD/JPY

10-year yields at the lowest since June The bond market hit stops as 10-year yields skidded to 2.17%, taking out a double bottom at yesterday's low and the August 11 low, both at 2.18%.

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Author: Adam Button
4

USD/JPY closes in on the August low as the dollar bleed continues

108.68 was last Friday's spike low USD/JPY is the chart of the day today and the big question is whether it can hold the August low. The low of 108.68 last week also corresponds closely with the June low of 108.69 so that makes it doubly important.

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Author: Adam Button
8

USD/CAD falls to lowest since August 4 after inflation data

CPI rose 1.2% year-over-year USD/CAD fell more than 70 pips to 1.2572 in the aftermath of the July CPI number. The data wasn't particularly strong so the drop underscores the bias to sell the pair and to sell the US dollar more broadly.

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Author: Adam Button
3

Canada July CPI +1.2% y/y vs +1.2% expected

Canadian consumer price index data for July 2017 - was 1.0% y/y (was lowest since Oct 2015) - CPI m/m 0.0% vs 0.0% expected - Prior m/m reading -0.1% Core y/y numbers:

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