27 minutes ago | July 23rd, 2014 11:17:22 GMT

Is Russia’s Gazprom putting the squeeze on Ukrainian reverse gas supplies?

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Ukraine’s energy minister seems to think so as he says that reverse gas flows from the EU to Ukraine have fallen and Kiev is linking that to Gazprom activity.

Since Russia put Ukraine on pre-payment supplying they’ve been relying on these reverse flows from other EU countries. It’s entirely possible that that Gazprom are up to funny business but there’s also the possibility that the supplying countries are limiting supplies while looking after their own interests.

Still, it makes you wonder what’s happened to the €3.1bn Ukraine was given to pay the Gazprom gas bill with?

1 Comment

33 minutes ago | July 23rd, 2014 11:11:31 GMT

ForexLive European morning wrap: Pound falls as the hawks have their wings clipped

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Forex trading headlines from the European trading session 23 July

 News:

Data:

The session started out with the euro remaining on the back foot but it wasn’t too long before the pound took centre stage for it’s own time under the heat of the spotlight

EURUSD had an early look at the 1.3455 bids protecting the 1.3450 barrier but bounced back to 1.3465 and has since climbed a tad higher as EURGBP caught a bid from 0.7875 to 0.7908 following the 9-0 MPC vote on unchanged UK interest rates which saw cable drop from 1.7092 to 1.7067.

Better than previous mortgage approvals provided a few bids back to 1.7082 but then it was bail-out time for the bulls and we’ve posted new recent lows of 1.7031 dragging down pound pairs with it.

USDJPY once again has been in a tight range around 101.40  engineered by yen cross action while USDCHF posted early highs of 0.9033  as EURUSD fell but since then has drifted back below 0.9020.

AUDUSD had caught a bid in Asia on CPI data and EURAUD selling and we edged a little higher from 0.9435 to test the offers around 0.9450 and we’ve sat at 0.9447 since. NZDUSD also found bids in the dips o/n but has traded tightly between 0.8682-92 in this session while USDCAD drifted off to 1.0712 before staging a small bounce to 1.0725

All eyes on the pound then for the moment with BOE gov Carney up to the rostrum at 11.45 GMT to deliver a speech in Glasgow as part of the trade investment initiative provided by the Commonwealth Games starting today.

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1 hour ago | July 23rd, 2014 10:25:27 GMT

Japan to cut discretionary spending by ¥4tn in 2015/16 budget

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Part of the Japanese governments plan to try and cut the massive deficit is to see around a 10% cut in spending from the 2015/16 FY budget. The cut targets spending on projects like public works and it’s more or less the same amount that Abe wants to add to his growth strategy plane.

Reuters has seen the draft document  from the finance ministry’s guidelines for budget requests which is expected to be approved be Abe and his cabinet on Friday. They also want to cut social welfare spending to ¥830bn from the current ¥1.3tn.

At the worst Abe is paying for his growth plan with this cut so this move is just taking from the right hand to give to the left.

As for the rest of the finances, well that’s still whole Mt Fuji to be tackled.

1 Comment

1 hour ago | July 23rd, 2014 10:08:29 GMT

SNB’s Jordan says CHF cap to stay for foreseeable future

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SNB president Thomas Jordan quoted in the Swiss  Weltoche magazine referring to the EURCHF 1.2000 cap

  • due to weak inflation “the minium exchange rate will remain the key monetary policy instrument for the foreseeable future”

Make that the only instrument as the SNB continues to find itself between a rock and a hard place

More from Jordan:

  • monetary policy isn’t a cure-all. low interest rates can lead to distortions
  • means for withdrawing liquidity exists, timing is the challenge. withdrawal of liquidity must be carried out to avoid unecessary money market volatility
  • CHF is still highly valued
  • inflation forecasts remain very low
  • the problem of winding down of global banks in event of crisis not yet sufficiently solved
  • Ukraine crisis is a “known unknown”

USDCHF still around 0.9023 on the repeated mantra. EURCHF 1.2151 and going nowhere in a hurry

5 Comments

1 hour ago | July 23rd, 2014 10:01:03 GMT

July UK CBI distributive trades 21 vs 16 exp

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  • Prior 4
  • 3 month moving average sales 14 vs 17 prior
  • Supplier orders 2 vs 7 prior
  • August expected annual sales 36 vs 17 prior
  • Expected supplier orders 13 vs 10 prior

A possible little insight to the main retail sales data out tomorrow. This data is mainly from the wholesale side of the fence so in reality it’s one level down from the shop floors. A pick up in retailers buying from wholesalers can be a sign that the tills are ringing or that expectations are high that they will start ringing more.

UK CBI distributive trades 23 07 2014

UK CBI distributive trades 23 07 2014

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1 hour ago | July 23rd, 2014 09:49:49 GMT

Kicking the pound while it’s down

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It’s all relative of course but following on from the MPC Minutes, the pound’s subsequent fall and Ryan’s previous post here’s another piece that echoes certain sentiments close to my heart, as regular readers will know

The BBC’s economics editor Robert Peston writes about the re-working of UK GDP data with the latest release due this Friday, the continuing gap between the services and manufacturing sectors and not forgetting the levels of household debt/real income

It’s called “Half a cheer for depression’s end” .  GBP bulls with rose-tinted/interest rate based glasses look away now

1 Comment

2 hours ago | July 23rd, 2014 09:18:04 GMT

More from the orderboard 23 July

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USDCHF currently 0.9021 after capping at 0.9033 as EURUSD finds support into 1.3450

Sellers   0.9040-0.9050 0.9065 0.9080 0.9100

Buyers  0.9000-10 0.8985 0.8975 0.8960 0.8940-50 0.8910 0.8900-8890  0.8875

 

EURCHF currently 1.2150 still caught in the crossfire

Sellers  1.2160 1.2185 1.2200 1.2225 1.2235-40 1.2250

Buyers  1.2135 1.2125 1.2100 1.2085 1.2050

 

USDCAD currently 1.0716 just off session lows

Sellers  1.0750 1.0770-80 1.0790-1.0800 1.0825 1.0840-50

Buyers 1.0700 1.0670 1.0650 1.0630 1.0610-15 1.0600 (barrier option)

 

NZDUSD currently 0.8687 trying to make its mind up ahead of tonight’s RBNZ decision

Sellers  0.8700 0.8720 0.8740 0.8770 0.8800-10 0.8825

Buyers 0.8655 0.8625 0.8600

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