2 weeks of consolidation..
The NZDUSD peaked in February at 0.7374.
Looking back in time there was a swing high back in August 2016 at 0.7679 and highs in September 2016 at 0.7663 and 0.7668. IN November the price moved above those highs on one day, failed and moved back lower (failed break).
Fast forward again to earlier this month, the price high stalled in between that 0.7362-79 area at 0.73746. A high area is defined.
The fall from the February high has taken the pair right down to the 100 day MA on February 14, and this week (Feb 20) the low stalled at the converged 100 AND 200 day MAs at 0.7130. The low reached 0.7129. A low area is defined by the 200 and 100 day MA (at 0.7136 and 0.7129 respectively today. The low support may also be extended to the 50% at 0.71179 (it represents another target to get to and through on the downside).
The rally off the low this week moved up to test the 50% of the Feb range. That level come in at 0.72518. The high this week reached 0.72462. Close enough. We currently trade at 0.7200.
Of that technical review from the daily chart, the market bias is mixed.
- Held support ahead of key MA and 50% at the lows (0.7118-0.7136),
- ON the rally, held resistance against the 50% of the more recent move lower (0.72518)
- We sit between support and resistance (at 0.7200 currently).
Drilling down to hourly chart, the last 11+ days has the seen the price trade between 0.7129 and 0.7246.
On Feb 14, the low reached 0.7133 which was take out on Feb 21 by 4 pips. The failure on the break to new lows, sent the pair higher to a high or 0.7246 yesterday. That high took out the Feb 16 high of 0.71419 by about 4 pips - the same pip failure at the lows. The price has retreated lower in trading today. Symmetry.
The fall today, has extended toward the middle of the 11+ day range at 0.71877. The 200 and 100 hour MAs are within a few pips of that level (0.7189 and 0.7186). We trade within about 14 pips of that midpoint.
So as we head into the new trading week, we area about as neutral technically as we can be.
If I were to put a line in the sand for bullish above and bearish below in the new week, it would be at 0.7186-89.
- Stay above is move bullish and we would look to break out of the 11 day range at 0.7246.
- Move below, and a test/retest of the 200 and 100 day MAs at 0.7129-36 would be the favored course.
Interim levels to eye on the topside would be the 0.7218-24 and on the downside the 0.7169-72 level.