Author: Mike Paterson

Another client note in the past few hours from National Australia Bank

Also courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com. Sign up here for your free trial.

Say NAB:

The corrective bounce of recent weeks extended aggressively last week to challenge the integrity of the downtrend.

While the base of the broken multi-month triangle/consolidation was overcome intra-week, Friday's negative reversal confirmed a material rejection of key resistance and confirmed the the MT downtrend remains in place.

Note that AUDUSD has traded in broad sideways consolidation since mid-2015, highlighting a stark reduction in the pace of the downtrend.

As such we see risk of a decline towards the bottom of the 2015/2016 range, however we are reluctant to be aggressively bearish beyond a multi-week timeframe without seeing renewed negative triggers at a MT level.

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Author: Mike Paterson
3

Time to get (even more) bearish on USD vs yen and euro say Credit Suisse

Latest client note from the Swiss bank, and my former employer for 6 years. Courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com. Sign up for your free trial. here Credit Suisse turn bullish on EUR and JPY vs USD for the first time since 2014. Here's what they have to say:

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Author: Mike Paterson
2

Data coming up in this session 11Feb

Here's what we have on the data calendar today Day 2 of Yellen's testimony at 15.00 GMT and US weekly jobless before that are the only standouts but with USDJPY tumbling and oil/equity markets still oh so fragile we don't need data right now to fuel a few flames.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Japan holiday - USD/JPY sold to sub-113

Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 11 February 2016 Gold: -   Japan -   USD/JPY was sold off again today, breaking overnight lows and plunging below 113. It found some buying just ahead of 112.50 and recovered to 113 before drifting back to around 112.70 as I update.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
3

RBA Governor Stevens to speak Friday morning (Australia time) - preview

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens appears in parliament on Friday morning Australian time - From 9.30am local time (which is 2230GMT on Thursday) . This will provide the framework for Stevens' comments tomorrow - it was out less than a week ago so he isn't going to depart notably from it

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
11

For the oil traders - 3 traders confirm deals at negative $2.50 and $2.75 /bbl

The headline is truncated, they often are. More: - U.S. refiner Phillips 66 dumped crude for immediate delivery in Cushing on Wednesday - The unusual sales of excess oil added pressure to the March/April WTI futures spread, with the front-month discount widening to as much as $2.37 a barrel on Wednesday, the most since November

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
17

A primer on how the BOJ intervene in the currency market

Bloomberg have written a piece on the mechanics of a Bank of Japan intervention in USD/JPY I wrote a similar, briefer, piece yesterday when we saw the 'rate check', but this is adds a little more and is well worth reading if you are unfamiliar with how it all works.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
12

Its a Japanese holiday today, does that mean we can't hear from the BOJ?

TL;DR - No, it doesn't. We still haven't seen intervention from the BOJ apart from jawboning and yesterday's 'rate check' (I should be more precise, they are both forms of intervention ... but the BOJ hasn't spent any money yet .... when they do, intervention :-D )

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
10

USD/JPY under 113

Its a Japan holiday. There is no 'news' Just more selling Under 113, to its lowest since November of 2014 Continuation. But I'm sure someone will come up with a narrative, if you're really after one.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
4

Gold pops through $1200

Gold at its highest since May of last year Its run a few stops above $1200 in early Asian trade Adam's been banging the drum on gold longs for months now.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

UK data - RICS House Price Balance for January: 49% (52% expected)

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance For January  % - expected 52% - prior 49 revised from 50% Comments from RICS: - Demand for housing remains buoyant, they cite tight supply, record employment, cheap rates

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

NZ data - January Median house price +5.2% y/y (REINZ)

Data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand - January house sales +4.3% y/y (prior +3.5%) - January median house prices +5.2% y/y (prior +3.3% y/y) NZD not showing much response.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
3

Italian PM announces bank decree passed at cabinet meeting

Italian PM Renzi in the headlines on Bloomberg: - Says passed decree for banks at cabinet meeting - Implements guarantee for non-performing loans agreed by Italy and the UE Any comments with more details welcome. I've been too busy paying out on Kuroda to pay much attention to Italian banks etc. I haven't even eaten pasta since I can't remember when.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
2

Are you smarter than a 5th grader? (US Congress edition)

Members of the US Congress, like politicians everywhere, don't have to pass an intelligence test to get the job Like that's news. But, in an election year their obtuseness is raised to a whole new level.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

AUD/USD & NZD/USD orders

Orderboard for the AUD and NZD. And a reminder, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. China is still out for their week-long break. Hong Kong returns today.

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Author: Adam Button

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Yellen softens slightly

Forex news for US trading on February 10, 2016: Yellen: News: Markets: - Gold up $7 to $1196 - WTI crude down 38-cents to $27.56 - S&P 500 flat at 1851 The US dollar first rallied as Yellen offered some token concessions to roiled markets but it soon reversed and the US dollar finished on the US lows against the euro, yen and pound.

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