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Author: Adam Button
4

Someone new would put the focus back on monetary policy

Janet Yellen did a fine job as Fed Chair. She had some stumbles on policy but was rock solid on communication.

If she were to continue, it would be more of the same and that would mean smooth sailing for markets.

As a trader, I really hope she gets shuffled out.

Here are some of the reasons why

#1 - She's boring

Objectively, that's a good thing for markets and the economy. In real life, I can't stand another four years of listening to her dumb everything down and avoid the real questions.

#2 - She plays it safe

Yellen has lamented things like automating the Fed but if you were to put a robot in charge, you would model it after Yellen. She plays it safe on every question, every problem, every speech. It's time for some out-of-the-box thinking, Yellen is so deep inside the box that she can't see the edges.

#3 - Volatility, please

The world need volatility and uncertainty. Not just because it makes trading more interesting, it's good for market discipline and keeps everyone on their toes.

#4 - I can't stand her voice

Does that make me a bad person, maybe, but I've listened to four years of speeches and I don't know if I can take another four years.

#5 - Monetary policy needs new ideas

Ok, the first four reasons are all shallow and selfish but in the bigger picture, I believe that the academics running global central banks are dominated by group-think and there is a severe failure of imagination. It's time for new ideas. Taylor and Warsh, in particular are willing to experiment and that's why either would make for a better chairman.

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Author: Adam Button
2

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Canadian dollar clobbered

Forex news for North American trading on October 20, 2017: Markets: - S&P 500 up 13 points to record 2574 - Gold down $10 to $1280 - WTI crude up 18-cents to $51.47 A weak retail sales report dashed hopes for a Bank of Canada rate hike and sent USD/CAD more than 130 pips higher. The pair was lower on the day at 1.2480 heading into the data but jumped up to 1.2580 on the initial headlines. That area offered some resistance because it had twice fended off rallies in October. Later in the day, however, it gave way and the gains continued to 1.2620, the best level since Aug 31.

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Author: Adam Button

Fed's Mester: Comfortable with gradually normalizing rates

From the Fed's Mester - Sees rates rising a bit more strongly than Fed median because of her expectations for a strong economy - Expects unemployment rate to go a bit lower She's a voter next year.

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Author: Adam Button
5

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Cable longs cut back

CFTC Commitments of Traders highlights for the week ending Oct 17, 2017: - EUR long 90K vs 98K long last week. - GBP long 5K vs 15K long last week. - JPY short 101K vs 101K short last week. There wasn't much in terms of position changes but looking at the market moves, those extremes in EUR and CAD are looking awfully vulnerable. At the very least, I can see euro longs cutting after the ECB on a 'sell the fact' kinda trade.

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Author: Adam Button
3

CMHC CEO: Canadians have a debt problem

That home-equity credit card needs to be paid at some point The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp is a government-backed lender, similar to Fannie and Freddie, and its CEO is worried about too many people using house-price rises to go into debt.

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Author: Adam Button
4

Trump: Taylor and Powell together at the Fed an option

Trump on Fox Business - Says both 'very talented' - Says he likes Yellen 'a lot' - Taylor and Powell together 'in my thinking' but adds 'I have a couple of other things in my thinking' Forgotten in the talk about the race for the Fed chair is that there is also a race for the Vice-Chair and someone in the top-5 will likely be offered the role.

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Author: Adam Button
1

US 2017 fiscal deficit was $665.7 billion vs $585.6 billion a year earlier

Final numbers for the fiscal year-ended in September - Deficit was 3.5% of GDP compared to 3.2% in fiscal 2016 - Sept surplus of $8B compared to $6B expected The big question, is whether the deficit is going to rise or contract in the year ahead. My guess is that a tax cut is more important to Congress than the deficit, despite years of preaching fiscal discipline.

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Author: Adam Button
2

It was a brutal week for the New Zealand dollar

NZD was the worst performer If there is one thing about the market in 2017, it's that it hates political trouble and uncertainty. An unlikely political coalition arose in New Zealand this week to spell the end of Bill English as Prime Minister. The good news for the new administration is that exports will get a boost from a lower New Zealand dollar.

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Author: Adam Button
1

What's a Fed chair worth to the market?

Point for point, what's the headline worth? In the week or two ahead, we will almost certainly see a headline or a leak cross the newswires that Trump has decided to on a new Fed chair.

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Author: Adam Button

Baker Hughes US oil rig count 736 vs 743 prior

Weekly oil and gas drilling rigs from Baker Hughes - Prior was 743 - Natural gas 177 vs 185 prior - Total rigs 913 vs 928 There is definitely some contraction going on.

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Author: Adam Button

Stay long EUR/CHF - Credit Agricole

Credit Agricole on EUR/CHF Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research notes that the G10 FX main beneficiaries of the latest development on US tax reforms are pairs such as USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

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Author: Adam Button
6

Yellen said to be back at the White House today

Bloomberg report "She'll be back" at the White House for a second interview, evidently. She was there for an interview yesterday. Is she back to get good news, or bad news? Or does Trump want to know more?

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Author: Greg Michalowski

EURUSD breaks support and runs lower

100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart broken and stops triggered.   The EURUSD stalled at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart earlier and bounced. The bounce took the price from 1.1780 to 1.1795 but the next test of the MA led to a break and stops. The price has run from 1.17808 (100 bar MA on the 4-hour) to a low of 1.17653.  

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Author: Adam Button

Italy leads European stock markets, mixed picture on the week

Closing changes for the main bourses: - UK FTSE -0.1% - CAC +0.1% - German DAX - flat - Spain IBEX +0.7% - Italy MIB +1.0% On the week: - UK FTSE -0.2% - CAC +0.4% Factor in the weakness in the pound and the euro, and it was a soft week for Europe.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
6

Bitcoin technicals: Yikes! Bitcoin pushes toward $6K

Dow index up to >23K but bitcoin is also pushing a new milestone at $6K The Dow cracked 23K this week and is up 17.6% this year, but bitcoin is also approaching a key milestone at $6K. For it, the key milestone is 6K. The gain for they year?  About 520%!

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Author: Adam Button

New York Fed Q3 GDP Nowcast +1.5% vs +1.7% prior

The latest weekly tracking estimate from the New York Fed - Last week's Q3 estimate was 1.7% - Q4 estimate 2.6% vs 2.9% prior From the NY Fed: "Negative surprises from the new residential construction and industrial production releases accounted for most of the decline."

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Author: Greg Michalowski

EURGBP is also a key technical level....

100 and 200 hour MA and 50% The fall has been sharp and unrelenting (for the most part), but the EURGBP is at a pretty key level. The 100 and 200 hour MAs are being tested as is the 50% of the move up from the week's low to the week's high (at 0.8934-39).

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Author: Adam Button

ECB tapering priced in? - BNP Paribas

The ECB decision on Thursday is a highlight next week BNP Paribas FX Strategy Research discusses the EUR outlook going into next week's ECB meeting The ECB takes center stage next week with its scheduled meeting on Thursday when it is widely expected to announce plans for asset purchases beyond December.

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Author: Adam Button

Yellen speech today will be the final word before the Fed blackout

Yellen speaks today after the market closes The usual thinking is that Yellen wouldn't say anything market moving when the market is closed. History shows that's not the case. I can think of at least two occasions where she has spoken late Friday or after the market closed and made some comments that moved the dollar.

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