Another client note in the past few hours from National Australia Bank
Also courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com. Sign up here for your free trial.
The corrective bounce of recent weeks extended aggressively last week to challenge the integrity of the downtrend.
While the base of the broken multi-month triangle/consolidation was overcome intra-week, Friday's negative reversal confirmed a material rejection of key resistance and confirmed the the MT downtrend remains in place.
Note that AUDUSD has traded in broad sideways consolidation since mid-2015, highlighting a stark reduction in the pace of the downtrend.
As such we see risk of a decline towards the bottom of the 2015/2016 range, however we are reluctant to be aggressively bearish beyond a multi-week timeframe without seeing renewed negative triggers at a MT level.