The GDP is shrugged off
Less that 24 hours ago the Australian GDP came in at -0.5% for the 3Q. That was much worse than the -0.1% estimate. The AUDUSD tumbled accordingly BUT was not able to take out the lows from Monday at the 0.7410 level. The price started to correct and when the price moved above the 200 hour MA at the 0.7446 level (and base against the level, traders pushed higher.
200 hour MA and trend line held support
The USDJPY has rebounded higher after testing the 200 hour MA and stalling (at 113.43 level - ). The price has moved up toward the resistance area defined by the 100 hour MA (at 113.919 currently) and the prior swing highs/lows at the 113.807-883 area. A move above will be more positive for the pair.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The euro jumped to start the week in a reversal after the Italian referendum. In theory, the win for the No side and the resignation of Renzi was the worst-possible news to start the week but the euro surged higher after the knee-jerk lower.
The rally resumes
A week of consolidation is over as the Trump rally morphs into a Santa Claus rally to wrap up the year.
The minor breather after the three-week rally following the election is extremely healthy and underscores the market's appetite for more.
Nomura after the Bank of Canada decision:
As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept it policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, reiterating that "the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate", suggesting a neutral policy stance.
Takes over from Caterpillar head CEO Doug Oberhelman
Jamon Dimon is also part of Donald Trumps Strategic and Policy Group which will meet "frequently" with the President starting after he takes office.
Risk traders leaning against the highs....
The NZDUSD followed its sibling AUDUSD lower after the surprise Australia GDP (-0.5%). The fall bottomed against the trendline/38.2% retracement/200 hour MA (green line in the chart below) and quickly rebounded.
Key trend line and 100 day MA eyed
The USDCAD is trading at new session lows as the USD moves lower.
However we are approaching the next key support level. That comes in against an upward sloping trend line at the 1.32187 level currently (and moving higher). Below that is the 100 day MA at 1.3191 and the 50% retracement at 1.3175 create some key support levels.
The EURUSD is rallying into the 4 PM London fixing. It could be fixing flows, but we are also seeing a weakening of the greenback with the USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD and NZDUSD all making new lows vs the USD in the last few minutes of trading.
US EIA weekly oil inventory data report week ending 2 December 2016
- Cushing 3783k vs 256k exp. Prior 2419k
- Gasoline 3425k vs 1600k exp. Prior 2097k
- Distillates 2501k vs 2000k exp. Prior 4957k
A bigger draw than expected here but not as unexpected after the 'Oil report that shall not be named' also showed a bigger draw. Production was pretty flat. There's still the whiff of the OPEC deal floating around but once that's all done and dusted, we'll likely get back to seeing the market move more in this report.
New lows for the day
The USDJPY has fallen below and away from its 100 hour MA at the 113.944 level. THe US yields are moving lower in trading today with the 10 year tradingat 2.349%, down about 4 basis points on the day. The high for the day was at 2.399%.
Down from a revised 5.631M (was 5.486M)
The JOLTs job openings for the month of October fell to 5.534M from a revised 5.631M last month (was 5.486).
When the number of
hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.
Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even
if the hires level is steady or rising. Over the 12 months ending in October, hires totaled 62.6 million and
separations totaled 60.1 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.5 million. These totals include
workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
Broke reverse head and shoulder neckline
The EURGBP is higher in trading today - leading/following the GBP weakness in trading today. The GBP is the weakest of the major currencies in trading today so far ().
200 hour MA slowed the fall too.
The GBPUSD has been moving lower in trading today. Brexit concerns/Brexit debate has helped to weaken the pound in trading today. It is the weakest of the major currencies today.
Further comments from the debate
I thought there were no talks taking place between us and Europe? More bike shed talks no doubt.
He's got a point though, we can hardly negotiate with many of the EU when a lot of those countries are facing elections.
December 7, 2016: The NZD is the strongest: The GBP is the weakest.
As NA traders enter for the day, the NZD is the strongest, while the GBP is the weakest. The USD is little changed vs most major currencies with the exception of the two outliers (GBP and NZD).
A quick look at USDCAD ahead of the BOC
The likely outcome from the BOC is a firm sitting on hands but if we get a move, what levels might come into play?
For a large chunk of 2016 we've been nicely following a steady uptrend. We've seen breakouts recently but once more we're back into the trend.
So says the shadow Brexit minister in parliament
Making the boundaries clear.
Through all this, the minister has been at pains to express that this is not a motion for triggering article 50 and that the opposition remain firmly behind the Brexit decision.