Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: USDCAD moves up toward Oct/Nov/Dec highs

50% and 200 day MA lie ahead On the daily chart, the USDCAD has closed above the 100 day MA since October 24th. That is 36 straight trading days.  Today we traded up to 1.28916 (so far) - short of all those levels (1.2901-16).  That area could slow a rally just because they did it before.

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Forex technical analysis: USDCAD moves up toward Oct/Nov/Dec highs


Author: Greg Michalowski
0


50% and 200 day MA lie ahead On the daily chart, the USDCAD has closed above the 100 day MA since October 24th. That is 36 straight trading days.  Today we traded up to 1.28916 (so far) - short of all those levels (1.2901-16).  That area could slow a rally just because they did it before.

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The deficit will matter again next year: Trump eyeing cuts to social programs
Asset 41

Author: Forex Live

Will the sleeping bear wake again?

An audio recap of trading so far today Our biggest concern is the ongoing investor immunity to any possible downside risk, with the US equity market continuing to extend its record run on what can arguably be classified as blind momentum. All of this is happening at a time when volatility is nowhere to be found. Looking to Wednesday, things are expected to heat up, with the Fed decision highlighting a stacked calendar.

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Will the sleeping bear wake again?


Author: Forex Live
Category: News
0
An audio recap of trading so far today Our biggest concern is the ongoing investor immunity to any possible downside risk, with the US equity market continuing to extend its record run on what can arguably be classified as blind momentum. All of this is happening at a time when volatility is nowhere to be found. Looking to Wednesday, things are expected to heat up, with the Fed decision highlighting a stacked calendar.

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Author: Adam Button

US November monthly budget statement -$138.5 billion vs -$134.5 billion expected

US budget deficit data - Year to date deficit $202 billion compared to $183 billion in the prior year - Outlast $347B vs $337B in Nov 2016 - Receipts $208B vs $200B  in Nov 2016

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US November monthly budget statement -$138.5 billion vs -$134.5 billion expected


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
US budget deficit data - Year to date deficit $202 billion compared to $183 billion in the prior year - Outlast $347B vs $337B in Nov 2016 - Receipts $208B vs $200B  in Nov 2016

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD dips toward 50% retracement level

Below low from last week The GBPUSD has had an up and down day. The up came after inflation data showed that CPI rose by 3.1% - above the upper limit of 3.0%.  The move higher took the price above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and back above a broken trend line. Those breaks failed, however, and the price rotated back to the downside. 

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Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD dips toward 50% retracement level


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Below low from last week The GBPUSD has had an up and down day. The up came after inflation data showed that CPI rose by 3.1% - above the upper limit of 3.0%.  The move higher took the price above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and back above a broken trend line. Those breaks failed, however, and the price rotated back to the downside. 

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Author: Adam Button

Barclays doesn't think the Bank of Canada will hike rates next year

The market is expecting at least one rate hike Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses USD/CAD outlook into the coming year, and thinks that the BoC won't likely be able to deliver a hike early in 2018 as currently priced-in by the market. 

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Barclays doesn't think the Bank of Canada will hike rates next year


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
The market is expecting at least one rate hike Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses USD/CAD outlook into the coming year, and thinks that the BoC won't likely be able to deliver a hike early in 2018 as currently priced-in by the market. 

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Author: Adam Button

US sells 30-year bonds at 2.804% vs WI bid 2.805%

29-year 11-month reopening - Bid to cover at 2.48 vs 2.23 prior Solid auction.

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US sells 30-year bonds at 2.804% vs WI bid 2.805%


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
29-year 11-month reopening - Bid to cover at 2.48 vs 2.23 prior Solid auction.

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Author: Adam Button
2

Down goes the US dollar. Rand Paul the culprit?

Jitters about comments from Rand Paul? I'm not sure what's behind the move but comments from Rand Paul where he says he can't vote to raise the deficit could be part of the equation -- although that's something he's said before.

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Down goes the US dollar. Rand Paul the culprit?


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
2
Jitters about comments from Rand Paul? I'm not sure what's behind the move but comments from Rand Paul where he says he can't vote to raise the deficit could be part of the equation -- although that's something he's said before.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
6

Bitcoin is old news. It's Ethereum and Litecoin today. Get with it.

Ethereum is up 14.55%. Litecoin is up 70.33% Bitcoin is so old and besides it is expensive.  If price is...gulp....hard to swallow, try Ethereum or perhaps Litecoin (like Lite Beer)

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Bitcoin is old news. It's Ethereum and Litecoin today. Get with it.


Author: Greg Michalowski
6
Ethereum is up 14.55%. Litecoin is up 70.33% Bitcoin is so old and besides it is expensive.  If price is...gulp....hard to swallow, try Ethereum or perhaps Litecoin (like Lite Beer)

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Author: Adam Button

Who wants some outrageous predictions for 2018?

Saxo Bank has a few Naturally, predictions like this are more for bank PR than education but they have some value. For one, they're a reminder that unexpected, huge and unpredictable moves happen in markets. And they happen far more often than we expect.

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Who wants some outrageous predictions for 2018?


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Saxo Bank has a few Naturally, predictions like this are more for bank PR than education but they have some value. For one, they're a reminder that unexpected, huge and unpredictable moves happen in markets. And they happen far more often than we expect.

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Author: Adam Button

Draghi to speak later, what to expect (hint: not much)

Draghi speaks at 2 pm ET (1900 GMT) ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at 2 pm New York time but he is extremely unlikely to say anything that would move markets for two reasons.

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Draghi to speak later, what to expect (hint: not much)


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Draghi speaks at 2 pm ET (1900 GMT) ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at 2 pm New York time but he is extremely unlikely to say anything that would move markets for two reasons.

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Author: Adam Button

European equity close: More gains

Closing changes for the main bourses - UK FTSE +0.6% - German DAX +0.4% - Spain IBEX -0.4% - French CAC +0.7% - Italy MIB +0.2% Here is the long view on the DAX:

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European equity close: More gains


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Closing changes for the main bourses - UK FTSE +0.6% - German DAX +0.4% - Spain IBEX -0.4% - French CAC +0.7% - Italy MIB +0.2% Here is the long view on the DAX:

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Author: Adam Button
1

Senate #2 Republican says tentative tax deal could come today

So far the details have been kept hush-hush A deal so quickly would qualify as a fairly big surprise. The details will be key. Expect winners and losers to performer very differently in the stock market.

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Senate #2 Republican says tentative tax deal could come today


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
1
So far the details have been kept hush-hush A deal so quickly would qualify as a fairly big surprise. The details will be key. Expect winners and losers to performer very differently in the stock market.

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Author: Adam Button

EU's Barnier says there is no possibility of full UK-EU trade deal by time of Brexit

Comments from chief EU Brexit negotiator Barnier - Says EU will not accept any backtracking by UK on commitments already made - EU's Barnier says draft Brexit treaty coming early next year Everything moves at a glacial pace in Europe.

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EU's Barnier says there is no possibility of full UK-EU trade deal by time of Brexit


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Comments from chief EU Brexit negotiator Barnier - Says EU will not accept any backtracking by UK on commitments already made - EU's Barnier says draft Brexit treaty coming early next year Everything moves at a glacial pace in Europe.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD hits a support area. Look for some slowing

Swing area going back to September Looking at the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD has started to enter a swing area where there have been a number of swing levels. The area comes in at 1.1712-24 (see red circles and yellow area).  

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Forex technical analysis: EURUSD hits a support area. Look for some slowing


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Swing area going back to September Looking at the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD has started to enter a swing area where there have been a number of swing levels. The area comes in at 1.1712-24 (see red circles and yellow area).  

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Author: Adam Button

The US dollar continues to march higher

USD/JPY hits the best levels since November 14 The US dollar is riding high ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision. The moves are still relatively small but the momentum is inarguable. In the latest updraft for the dollar, USD/JPY climbed above yesterday's high to the best level since November 14. it's the fourth day of gains.

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The US dollar continues to march higher


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
USD/JPY hits the best levels since November 14 The US dollar is riding high ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision. The moves are still relatively small but the momentum is inarguable. In the latest updraft for the dollar, USD/JPY climbed above yesterday's high to the best level since November 14. it's the fourth day of gains.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: EURJPY battles between technical levels

Ceiling above. MA and retracement below.  Looking at the hourly chart of the EURJPY, the price just fell to the 100 hour moving average (line in the chart below) and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 6 low.  Both those technical levels come in at 133.256.  Support held.

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Forex technical analysis: EURJPY battles between technical levels


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Ceiling above. MA and retracement below.  Looking at the hourly chart of the EURJPY, the price just fell to the 100 hour moving average (line in the chart below) and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 6 low.  Both those technical levels come in at 133.256.  Support held.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY extends above trend line

US 10 year above 2.40%. Gold at 5-month low. The USDJPY has moved to new session highs helped in part by a tick up in US yields. The 10 year is back about 2.40%.  

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Forex technical analysis: USDJPY extends above trend line


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
US 10 year above 2.40%. Gold at 5-month low. The USDJPY has moved to new session highs helped in part by a tick up in US yields. The 10 year is back about 2.40%.  

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Author: Adam Button

If you're trading most commodities, you're pretty much betting on China

Just how much does China consume? Half of industrial metals are consumed in China. This graphic from the World Economic Forum shows the percentages of various commodities that are consumed in China.

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If you're trading most commodities, you're pretty much betting on China


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Just how much does China consume? Half of industrial metals are consumed in China. This graphic from the World Economic Forum shows the percentages of various commodities that are consumed in China.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

US major indices open mixed.

Dow leads the way The major US stock indices are opening mixed: In the US debt market, yields are up a touch from earlier levels at the start of the New York session

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US major indices open mixed.


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Dow leads the way The major US stock indices are opening mixed: In the US debt market, yields are up a touch from earlier levels at the start of the New York session

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Author: Adam Button

The US dollar is warming up ahead of the FOMC decision

USD/JPY hits the best levels of the day USD/JPY is higher for the fourth day and nearing the best level in a month. USD/JPY is now up slightly on the day, erasing an earlier dip.

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The US dollar is warming up ahead of the FOMC decision


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
USD/JPY hits the best levels of the day USD/JPY is higher for the fourth day and nearing the best level in a month. USD/JPY is now up slightly on the day, erasing an earlier dip.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: EURGBP test a cluster of support

The EURUSD is falling and the EURGBP is also falling, but.... The EURUSD is falling and trading near low levels for the day. The EURGBP has also moved to a new session lows. However, that move lower is testing a cluster of technical levels in a relatively narrow range.

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Forex technical analysis: EURGBP test a cluster of support


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
The EURUSD is falling and the EURGBP is also falling, but.... The EURUSD is falling and trading near low levels for the day. The EURGBP has also moved to a new session lows. However, that move lower is testing a cluster of technical levels in a relatively narrow range.

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Author: Adam Button

Manpower hiring survey is another reason to be optimistic about 2018

Strong hiring intentions for Q1 Outside of Austria and Italy, the year ahead is a good time to be looking for work, according to the Q1 hiring survey from ManpowerGroup.

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Manpower hiring survey is another reason to be optimistic about 2018


Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
Strong hiring intentions for Q1 Outside of Austria and Italy, the year ahead is a good time to be looking for work, according to the Q1 hiring survey from ManpowerGroup.

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Author: Adam Button

Last gasp for the Australian dollar?

AUD/USD technical analysis The Australian dollar is the top performer today but the fundamentals and technicals point to potential trouble ahead. In terms of data, the Q3 house price numbers were released in Aussie trading and they showed prices down 0.2% q/q in the quarter compared to a 0.5% rise expected. AUD/USD hit a session low of 0.7519 after the news but has stormed back since and hit 0.7580.

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Last gasp for the Australian dollar?


Author: Adam Button
0
AUD/USD technical analysis The Australian dollar is the top performer today but the fundamentals and technicals point to potential trouble ahead. In terms of data, the Q3 house price numbers were released in Aussie trading and they showed prices down 0.2% q/q in the quarter compared to a 0.5% rise expected. AUD/USD hit a session low of 0.7519 after the news but has stormed back since and hit 0.7580.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD extends to new session lows after the US PPI

Trades to 1.1750 level.   The EURUSD has extended to the 1.1746 level after the PPI data.  Its only about a 30 pips fall from before the data,  but in this day of limited movement, it at least is showing some life. 

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Forex technical analysis: EURUSD extends to new session lows after the US PPI


Author: Greg Michalowski
0
Trades to 1.1750 level.   The EURUSD has extended to the 1.1746 level after the PPI data.  Its only about a 30 pips fall from before the data,  but in this day of limited movement, it at least is showing some life. 

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