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Author: Adam Button
6

Forex headlines for New York trading on March 24, 2017:

Markets:

  • Gold up $1 to $1246
  • S&P 500 down 2 points to 2344
  • WTI crude up 38-cents to $48.08
  • US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 2.41%
  • CHF leads, GBP lags

After a few days of watching politics, you start to get the sense that the market doesn't like trading on politics. It's tough to get an edge and to interpret what anything means. So healthcare reform is dead now and Republicans will let it 'implode' and then fix it later, blaming the other side. In the meantime, they'll move onto tax reform.

The market seemingly likes that narrative, or maybe it likes that they pulled the vote rather than allowing an embarrassing defeat and blame game.

In any case, USD/JPY rallied from a session low of 110.60 up to 111.25 at the end of the day on the postponement. The S&P 500 tried to rally too but fell short, finishing down 2 points but well off the lows.

For the second day in a row, the euro was basically sidelined in New York trade. It chopped 10 pips either side of 1.0800.

GBP/USD ended its winning streak with a 30-pip loss on the day. The damage was done in London trading and it was essentially sideways around 1.2490.

USD/CAD was at the lows of the day at 1.3340 when CPI numbers crossed. They were a touch weaker than expected and that set off a quick rally to 1.3380. There were some marginal highs above but no follow through, in part because oil finally got off the floor.

Have a great weekend.

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Author: Adam Button
11

CFTC Commitments of Traders: GBP short inch to new record, EUR shorts slashed

Forex futures net speculative positions as of the close of business on Tuesday March 21, 2017: - EUR short 20K vs 41K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 18K - GBP short 108K vs 107K short last week. Shorts increased by 26K GBP shorts had jumped in the previous two weeks. They inched higher here but it's a marginal rise. Still, it's not showing any rush to take profits ahead of Article 50.

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Author: Adam Button
17

It sounds like Republicans will move on to something else

That's how the market is trading The S&P 500 has jumped on the headlines about the vote getting pulled. The thinking is that Republicans will move on to tax reform. The idea is that it will come faster and, perhaps, Republicans will feel more pressure to come together and get something done.

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Author: Adam Button
30

Republican leaders postpone vote on healthcare bill

Vote delayed, according to reports Rather than face certain defeat, Trump decided to pull the vote. I don't blame Paul [Ryan]," Trump also told Costa. House Republicans are said to be holding a conference meeting now. Paul Ryan said he will speak about it at 4 pm ET.

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Author: Adam Button
2

AUD/JPY was the worst performer this week

AUD/JPY has fallen in four straight days It's a classic case of risk aversion. The yen was the top performer this week while the Australian dollar lagged. AUD/JPY had been in a relatively narrow range around 86.00 after a rally from Sept to mid-December. The latest slump is slowly sliding towards support near 84.00.

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Author: Adam Button

Fed's Williams speaks in a Q&A session in Washington

Williams takes questions - Running policy too hot for too long would spur inflation - Demographics have strong effects on growth - Fed has averted declining inflation expectations Bland stuff.

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Author: Adam Button

S&P 500 falls into negative territory

Stocks negative on the day The S&P 500 has given up its gains. The index had risen 10 points earlier in the day but with overwhelming evidence that the healthcare vote wlll fail, the market is slowly wilting.

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Author: Adam Button
18

Can Republicans really move on from healthcare?

It sounds like Trump and Republicans will just leave Obamacare alone There are signs that the strategy will be for Trump to abandon efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare.

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Author: Adam Button
8

House vote isn't particularly close - NBC News

NBC reports that the current count is 34 against Republicans can only afford 22 votes against them. Two more Republicans have publically said they won't vote for it during the press conference.

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Author: Adam Button
12

White House says vote on healthcare bill set for 3:30 pm ET

Game on Sean Spicer at White House says the vote will take place but we've seen a few times where the White House isn't the first to know. He said Trump and Ryan were continuing to talk about the way forward.

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Author: Adam Button

Watch today's White House press briefing live

Sean Spicer will surely be asked about the healthcare vote I expect the White House to shift into spin-mode here or in the very near future.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Baker Hughes US weekly oil rig count 652 vs 631 prior

Weekly US oil and gas drilling data from Baker Hughes - was 631 - Natural gas 155 vs 157 - Total rigs 809 vs 789 Another huge jump in drilling rigs. The US is already producing 9.1mbpd. That's going to be 10mbpd before long.

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Author: Adam Button

French Feb jobseekers -3.5K vs -10K expected

French jobseekers data for February - Prior was 3467.9K - 3464.4K vs 3457.0K expected A touch worse than expected but it won't be a factor for EUR trading.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
23

Make me a market for USDJPY on the Healthcare bill

Where will the dollar be after the vote? Right everyone, stop standing around picking your noses, get the grey matter warmed up. Should we actually get a vote today, let me know where you think the dollar will end up by the close.

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Author: Adam Button
4

Republican leaders not confident they have votes to pass health bill

Headline from Bloomberg, citing an aide It's not looking good. The report says that House leaders are mulling what to do next if the vote fails. Normally, they would pull the vote from the floor rather than losing it but Trump demanded a vote, so they're going to let it flop.

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Author: Adam Button
18

The bond market is starting to worry as GOP says "next few votes" will be tough

10-year yields to the lows of the day US 10-year yields are down 2 bps to 2.40% after trading as high as 2.435% earlier today. Headlines are just cross from Rep Davis who says the "next few votes" will be the toughest and that hopefully a meeting with Vice President Pence will get the job done. That's the clearest indication yet that they don't currently have the votes.

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Author: Adam Button
5

New York Fed bumps up Q1 GDP growth forecast to 3.0%

New York Fed Nowcasting report highlights - They now see 3.0% in Q1, compared to 2.8% last week - See 2.7% for Q2, compared to 2.5% in Q1 "News from this week's data releases had a small positive impact on the nowcasts for both quarters, driven by new home sales data and the advance durable goods report," the said.

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Author: Adam Button
4

White House angling to blame Paul Ryan if the healthcare vote fails

Bloomberg, citing sources The White House will try to pin the blame on Paul Ryan if the healthcare vote fails today, according to a . Bloomberg report "Behind the scenes, the president's aides are planning to blame Ryan if there is an embarrassing defeat on a bill that has been a Republican goal for more than seven years, a senior administration official said," according to the report.

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Author: Adam Button

Healthcare vote passes procedural vote but Freedom Caucus still says 'no'

The first hurdle cleared It's no surprise to see the vote pass the procedural stage. The bad news is that the procedural vote was scheduled in the 10:15 am ET to 11:15 range. The voting is just finishing up so we're in the latter 15 minutes of that timeframe.

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Author: Adam Button
6

Trump's schedule: Healthcare vote edition

Trump has a busy schedule as he follows the healthcare vote Holds a National Economic Council meeting Meets with Charter Communications CEO Thomas Rutledge and Texas Governor Greg Abbott Lunch with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Hosts a Greek Independence Day celebration Meets with Medal of Honor recipients Sean Spicer holds a briefing at 1:00 pm ET.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
1

The US economy is at a pretty good place right now says Fed's Dudley

Dudders popping up in New York The last comment is almost at odds with what he's been saying recently about there not being a problem with inflation. Maybe my thoughts on the speed of these hikes holds some water? I doubt the Fed will risk jobs growth just to fight inflation.

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