Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1


Good morning, afternoon or evening to all, welcome to the (very early) new FX week. As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin.
Liquidity improves as more Asian centres come on online ... until then prices are liable to swing around on not too much at all.
Price guide:
EUR/USD 1.0567
USD/JPY 112.15
GBP/USD 1.2477
USD/CHF 1.0074
USD/CAD 1.3098
AUD/USD .7673
NZD/USD .7195


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Author: Mike Paterson

BOE's Saunders says Brexit will have long-term "modest adverse" impact on UK GDP

BOE external MPC member MichaeL Saunders speaking in Scotland - absence of a credit freeze after the Brexit vote was the main factor behind the unexpected resilience of the UK economy Some would argue though that the additional easing was a) unnecessary, b) premature and c) potentially damaging in the longer term

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Fitch affirms Greece at CCC

Greek complying with terms of European Stability Mechanism program

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Author: Greg Michalowski
5

EURUSD trades to new session lows

Falls below the 100 hour MA and triggers some selling The EURUSD fell below the 100 hour MA at 1.0563 after 5 tests, and extended to 1.0557 in quiet trading. I would not call the extension a momentum move, but it is a new low, it did break a MA line that has been rock solid support today, and the market has been having trouble keeping a rallying.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
4

The technical look at the NZDUSD into the new trading week

2 weeks of consolidation.. The NZDUSD peaked in February at 0.7374.  Looking back in time there was a swing high back in August 2016 at 0.7679 and highs in September 2016 at 0.7663 and 0.7668.  IN November the price moved above those highs on one day, failed and moved back lower (failed break).  

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Author: Adam Button
11

EUR/JPY falls to lowest since November, what's next

Wednesday's low breaks No one wants to touch the euro with so much political risk on the calendar. Yes, Marine Le Pen is way behind and the last two days of polls showed Macron making some headway.

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Author: Adam Button

Baker Hughes oil rig count 602 vs 597 prior

Weekly drilling rig data - Highest since Oct 2015 - Prior oil rigs were 597 - Natural gas rigs 151 vs 153 prior - Prior natural gas rigs were 153 In the weekly data from the DOE, for the first time since 2015 as rising prices continue to attract more drilling.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
7

EURUSDs rallies and falls.

Bounces off the 100 hour MA is a pattern, but so too are quick falls The EURUSD has been four times within 0-5 pips of the 100 hour MA today, and each time there has been a bounce.  So there is something above the 100 hour MA (store that away in your traders rolodex).

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

USDJPY back to the 112.00 support area

Extend to new lows but seeing minor bounce The USDJPY has scooted to new lows for the day - reaching to 112.029. That took out the earlier low by a pip or two.

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Author: Adam Button
7

Border adjustment tax plan is coming but we're not sure which one

White House plan will differ from House plan - report Gary Cohn is crafting Trump's tax plan and he met a group of CEOs this morning at the White House. According to an attendee, them that the White House does not support the House's version of the tax.

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Author: Adam Button
1

French jobseekers inch higher in January

January jobseekers data - Jobseekers at 3467.9K versus 3446.0K expected - up 800 vs -10,000 expected Very, very close to expectations.

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Author: Adam Button
7

Another week of mediocre FX moves

The market is paralyzed The pound was the top performer this week while the euro lagged. However, the overall move was less than 1% and in general, the currency weekly changes this week were minor.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
5

US yields are lower post Trump

10 year trading at lows for the day The Trump speech is finally over. I guess it can be characterized as "The Best Of" type of speech.  He covered all the talking points but was short on specifics about taxes. 

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Author: Adam Button

European stocks slip to close out the week

Closing changes for the main European bourses - UK FTSE 100 -0.3% - German DAX -1.1% - French CAC -0.8% - Spain IBEX -0.6% - Italy MIB -1.1% On the week:

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Author: Adam Button
3

Next week should offer some USD clarity - BAML

From Bank of America Merrill Lynch For bank trade ideas, . with several Fed speakers during the week, FOMC Minutes and comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. The Minutes kept a March hike on the table, but also highlighted that most participants thought that "some time would likely be required for the outlook to become clearer."

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Author: Greg Michalowski

NY Fed GDP NowCast estimate unchanged at 3.1%

Little to cause change this week As per the NY Fed: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is currently at 2.4% and will be updated on Feb 27th.

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Author: Adam Button
2

Canada April-Dec budget deficit $14B vs +$3.2B a year ago

The latest Canadian budget data - Deficit in Dec $1.3B vs surplus of $2.2B a year ago] - Revenues down 3.0% vs prior December - Program expenses +13.0% The government forecast a budget deficit of $25.1B for the year ending March 30.

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Author: Adam Button
27

Trump: We are going to 'massively' reduce taxes

Trump touts tax cut - We will make tax code simpler and fair Trump is speaking to Congress Tuesday and the speculation is that he will unveil his tax plan then.

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