Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex news for NY traders on March 16, 2018

A snapshot of the markets is showing:

  • Spot gold is down $2.50 or -0.19% at $1313.72 
  • WTI crude oil futures settled at $62.34, up $1.15 or 1.88%. For the week, the price was up about $0.30 after a dip toward $60.00 found buyers.  The price moved higher despite higher inventories this week.  
  • Bitcoin is trading up $277 at $8528.  It remains below its 200 day moving average at $9130 and also below its 100 hour MA at $8617.49. The 200 hour moving averages higher at $8909. Both moving averages are moving lower end will be eyed for bullish bearish clues during weekend trading
  • US yields are higher (but off the highs for the day).  2-year 2.29%, up 0.6 basis points.  5-year 2.64%, up 1.7 basis points. 10 year 2.84%, up 1.5 basis points.  30 year 3.08%, up 1.8 basis points
  • US stocks ended the session modestly higher and down for the week. The S&P closed up 0.17%. The NASDAQ was unchanged.  The Dow industrial average rose by 0.29%
Trading in the NY session saw the USD move higher with the help from some better than expected economic data.  However, most of the declines were vs. the AUD, NZD and the CAD.  The greenback was up modestly vs the EUR and CHF, it was down vs the JPY and is closing near unchanged levels vs. the GBP (see chart below).  

Overall, the JPY was the strongest currency of the major currencies, while the AUD was the weakest. The AUDUSD traded at new lows for the year.

Better data out of the US including industrial production/capacity utilization, U of Michigan consumer sentiment and the JOLT job opens. That data trumped weaker housing starts/building permits and NY business activity index. US yields moved higher with the 10 year moving up to a session high of 2.857%, up about 2.6 basis points.  That helped to push the dollar higher. 

As mentioned earlier, the gains vs. the greenback were mostly vs the AUD and NZD. Those pairs suffered since peaking on Wednesday with a steady stream of selling, and both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD ended the week near session lows.

For the AUDUSD, the pair is closing around the low at 0.7709 level after trading up to a high for the week (and month) at 0.7916 on Wednesday. The low today, took out the March 1 low of 0.7711. That was the lowest the pair has traded since December 22nd.  The pair is also trading back below the 200 day MA at 0.7800 and the 100 day MA at 0.77715.  In next week's trading, staying below those levels will keep the bears in control.

For the NZDUSD, it peaked on Tuesday and Wednesday at 0.7354 (double top) and tumbled to a low today of 0.7207 (closing at 0.7211).  The lows for March came in at 0.7202 and 0.71855 respectively. The 200 day MA is at 0.7181.  Those levels will be targeted on more selling next week. If the 200 day MA can be broken, it should solicit more selling.

In other pairs today,

  • The GBPUSD had a wild up, and down and back up session.  The high stalled just ahead of a topside trend line. The low stalled just ahead of the 50% midpoint retracement of the move up from the March 8th low.  On the final move higher, the pair stalled at the converged 100 hour MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3945 level.  That level will be a key barometer for bulls and bears in early trading next week. 
  • The EURUSD worked higher in early trading today but stalled near a topside channel trend line (see red circle 2). The fall took the price below the lower channel trend line, but swing lows going back to March 2nd, stalled the fall in the 1.2251-72 area (the low reached 1.22597).  Next week that area will be eyed for bullish/bearish clues.

  • The USDJPY also had a volatile session. Coming into the NY session, the pair was trending lower. The price fell below a lower trend line and seemed intent on heading down.  The better data gave the pair a bid, and when the price moved back above a broken trend line on the daily at 105.85 (the low reached 105.597), the buying kicked back into gear. The NY session high got close to the 50% midpoint of the March trading range at 106.28 and the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 106.29 (the NY high reached 106.23), before wandering back toward 106.00 into the close.  Next week, stay below 106.29 and the sellers remain in control.  

Wishing all a happy and healthy weekend, and to all who celebrate St. Patrick's Day, have a great and safe celebration.

View More

View Full Article with Comments 19

Author: Mike Paterson

Forex and cryptocurrency news from the European morning trading 16 Mar 2018


A steady session overall with USDJPY falling again on US political plays but demand notable into 105.50 again. Large option expiry interest helping to cap the pair and contain EURUSD

USDJPY has posted lows of 105.62 having fallen through 105.80 and capped around 106.00. Yen pairs similarly capped.

EURUSD has traded 1.2300-37 with large option interest at 1.2300 and 1.2350 while EURGBP had a look below 0.8820 but found dip demand again. Softer final EZ yy CPI reading had minimal impact.

GBPUSD continues to range 1.3915-85 and has parked the bus around 1.3960 for the moment.

USDCHF and USDCAD both ran out of puff but downside limited at 0.9485 and 1.3040 but AUDUSD has been capped around option interest at 0.7800.

Bitcoin has been steady by recent standards and has held $8000 to test $8300 before retreating again.

US data heading your way from 12.30 GMT

View More

View Full Article with Comments 2

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Friday 16 March 2018

The data agenda for the day in Asia was sparse, but we stay tuned for unknowns and today we got a few for the yen. USD/JPY registered a high circa 106.39 in late NY/very early Asia but soon slid back small to drift around 106.30. We had some news that would ordinarily be taken as providing a wee bit of support for the yen:


USD/JPY ratcheted a few points lower, to circa 106.20/25. The 'news' hit that President Trump is to fire US National Security Adviser McMaster. USD/JPY took a tumble under 106. A few minutes later 'news' hit contradicting the initial reports, the President has not decided to fire him after all. I posted this chart in the aftermath - you can see the sell off in USD/JPY on the report of the firing and not much a recovery on the denial. I guess some wags will argue that it isn't confirmed until its officially denied ....

Yen crosses are lower with USD/JPY. There is not much to report on movement in other currencies. NZD is notably down a few points. A manufacturing PMI out today showed a drop on the month, and the prior was revised a good bit lower also. While the NZ economy continues to grow, the growth is not quite as much as thought. The RBNZ meet next week - they are on hold and will be for a good while to come. There is a new RBNZ Governor on the way the following week (March 27)

AUD, EUR ... both traded a few points softer against the USD and both have come back to be very little changed on the session, GBP fits that description also, CAD ditto . USD/CHF is little changed at all.

Still to come:

And, coming next week:

And, more importantly

Have a great weekend all and a Great St. Patrick's Day - drink green beer!

View More

View Full Article with Comments 1

Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex news for trading on March 15, 2018

In other markets:

  • Spot gold fell the back of the stronger dollar.  It is trading down -$8 on the day or -0.62% at $1316.50
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $0.23 or +0.36% at $61.18. A narrow trading range for the contract.  The price is closing below the 100 and 200 hour MAs at $61.43 and $61.23.
  • Bitcoin is trading down -$72 at $8228. The low reached $7666. The high extended to $8416.82.  For a technical review CLICK HERE
  • US stocks ending the session with mixed results. The Dow outclassed the broader indices but is closing off the highs (+295 at the highs). The Dow rose 115.54 points or 0.47%. The S&P fell -2.15 points or -0.08%. The Nasdaq fell -15.068 points or -0.20%.  
  • US yields are ending close to day ago levels for 5 years and out.  2 year 2.278%, up 2.0 basis points. 5 year 2.618%, up 0.7 basis points.  10 year 2.822%, up 0.5 basis points. 30 year 3.056%, unchanged.
The USD benefited from better data, a day after US retail sales disappointed.  

Regional indices from Philadelphia and NY continued to be strong. The Empire Manufacturing index came in at 22.5 vs 15.0. The Philly index was a little lower than expectations at 22.3 vs 23.0 estimate, but still remains at a high level and New Orders and Employment advanced.  

The weekly US initial jobless claims came in at 226K.  US employment continues to shine which makes the 2 consecutive month dip in retail sales reported yesterday, seem more like an aberration.  There was some speculation being tossed around that the impact from online selling is not being fully reflected in the data.  

In other data, import prices rose 0.4% vs 0.2% expected.  

Looking at the strongest and the weakest currencies (see table below), the JPY was the strongest, but the USD was a close 2nd. 

The greenback was only lower vs. the JPY and that was only marginally. If it weren't for a late day subpoena from Mueller for documents from the Trump organization including some related to Russia, the USDJPY might have ending in the black.  However, the news did send stocks falling and with it fell the USDJPY.  Nevertheless, the pair did rebound into the close and trades right near the unchanged level.  

Some technicals going into the last day of the trading week:


The EURUSD fell below a slew of technical levels in the early NY session and really opened up the downside for the bears (see: "Don't like the EURUSD? There are a number of technical reasons to sell.").  The pair moved down the 50% of the move up from the March 1 low at 1.2300 (CLICK HERE) and stalled into the close. The next downside targets include the low from Monday and the low from the US employment day last week at 1.2291 and 1.2272 


The GBPUSD fell and stalled at the 100 hour MA not once, not twice buy on three separate hourly bars (see chart below.   The last two occurred in the hours into the close and the bounce has been modest. That leaves the window open for a break in the new trading day. The MA comes in at 1.3927.  A break below should open up the downside for more bearish potential. 

However, be aware that the EURGBP fell below its 100 day MA today at 0.8846 and a lower trend line on the hourly chart below (see post here).  The movement lower in that pair, helped to support the GBPUSD at times during the day.  So be aware that the EURGBP cross may have a continued influence on the GBPUSD (and EURUSD as well - it helped move that pair lower today). 


The USDCAD moved to 8 month highs today, and in the process closed above the 100 week MA at 1.2976 and the double top at 1.3000 (the pair is closing the session at 1.3042). Of the course the week does not end until 5 PM tomorrow, but as long as the price can remain above those levels than, the bulls are more in control.  


The AUDUSD fell below trend line (and stayed below on a test), the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.78158. That is now risk.  At the end of the day, the price fell below the 200 day MA at 0.7800 as well. All that is bearish. The AUD was the weakest of the day, and the technicals are showing the weakness (see post here). 

That's it from me for the day. Wishing all in the Far East, a great weekend. 

View More

View Full Article with Comments

More session wraps for your convenience.