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Author: Adam Button
8

Someone new would put the focus back on monetary policy

Janet Yellen did a fine job as Fed Chair. She had some stumbles on policy but was rock solid on communication.

If she were to continue, it would be more of the same and that would mean smooth sailing for markets.

As a trader, I really hope she gets shuffled out.

Here are some of the reasons why

#1 - She's boring

Objectively, that's a good thing for markets and the economy. In real life, I can't stand another four years of listening to her dumb everything down and avoid the real questions.

#2 - She plays it safe

Yellen has lamented things like automating the Fed but if you were to put a robot in charge, you would model it after Yellen. She plays it safe on every question, every problem, every speech. It's time for some out-of-the-box thinking, Yellen is so deep inside the box that she can't see the edges.

#3 - Volatility, please

The world need volatility and uncertainty. Not just because it makes trading more interesting, it's good for market discipline and keeps everyone on their toes.

#4 - I can't stand her voice

Does that make me a bad person, maybe, but I've listened to four years of speeches and I don't know if I can take another four years.

#5 - Monetary policy needs new ideas

Ok, the first four reasons are all shallow and selfish but in the bigger picture, I believe that the academics running global central banks are dominated by group-think and there is a severe failure of imagination. It's time for new ideas. Taylor and Warsh, in particular are willing to experiment and that's why either would make for a better chairman.

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Author: Adam Button

Fed's Mester: Comfortable with gradually normalizing rates

From the Fed's Mester - Sees rates rising a bit more strongly than Fed median because of her expectations for a strong economy - Expects unemployment rate to go a bit lower She's a voter next year.

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Author: Adam Button
4

Trump: Taylor and Powell together at the Fed an option

Trump on Fox Business - Says both 'very talented' - Says he likes Yellen 'a lot' - Taylor and Powell together 'in my thinking' but adds 'I have a couple of other things in my thinking' Forgotten in the talk about the race for the Fed chair is that there is also a race for the Vice-Chair and someone in the top-5 will likely be offered the role.

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Author: Adam Button
1

What's a Fed chair worth to the market?

Point for point, what's the headline worth? In the week or two ahead, we will almost certainly see a headline or a leak cross the newswires that Trump has decided to on a new Fed chair.

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Author: Adam Button
6

Yellen said to be back at the White House today

Bloomberg report "She'll be back" at the White House for a second interview, evidently. She was there for an interview yesterday. Is she back to get good news, or bad news? Or does Trump want to know more?

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Author: Adam Button

ECB tapering priced in? - BNP Paribas

The ECB decision on Thursday is a highlight next week BNP Paribas FX Strategy Research discusses the EUR outlook going into next week's ECB meeting The ECB takes center stage next week with its scheduled meeting on Thursday when it is widely expected to announce plans for asset purchases beyond December.

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Author: Adam Button

Yellen speech today will be the final word before the Fed blackout

Yellen speaks today after the market closes The usual thinking is that Yellen wouldn't say anything market moving when the market is closed. History shows that's not the case. I can think of at least two occasions where she has spoken late Friday or after the market closed and made some comments that moved the dollar.

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Author: Mike Paterson
18

ECB's Nowotny says euro has become something of a safe-haven

ECB governing council member and Austrian CB head on the wires 20 Oct - some thing of a save haven like the swiss franc - we are watching the effect of euro on inflation EURUSD still hanging around 1.1800 while EURGBP finds the demand at 0.8980 I highlighted

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
2

More 'who will be the new Fed chair?' headlines crossing

So, does he give a rose to the one he wants or the one he doesn't want? How does it work again? Here are some more saga headlines just hitting (Bloomberg citing people familiar with the matter):

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
2

TD on what's next for the RBA following the strong employment report

TD on the Australian data yesterday (ICYMI: Australia September Employment Change: +19.8K (expected 15.0K) -  ) TD: - Surely RBA Governor Lowe) must be convinced by now that the labour market is more robust by the day! (bolding mine)

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

Ex-RBA Stevens says Global markets complacent over inflation risks

Previous governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens in the Australian press today (article came out overnight) - An unexpected pick-up in inflation measures could see "markets flip from their current scepticism" that central banks couldn't hit their targets "to worries about them being exceeded" Article is here for more (may be gated):

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Author: Greg Michalowski
2

BOE Cunliffe: We are not seeing sustained signs of domestic inflation pressure

GBPUSD falls on comments. He adds: The GBPUSD has moved a bit lower on the comments.  Looking at the hourly chart the pair traded to NY session lows at 1.3153. The 61.8% of the move up from the October 6th low comes in at 1.3145. A better support target on continued weakness was near where the price bottomed today. The 1.3121 area has been a swing level (both a floor and a ceiling) going back to October 5th.  Stay above more bullish. Move below, more bearish.

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Author: Adam Button
7

No word on when Trump will meet Yellen today

Yellen will be Trump's last interview for the Fed chair Given how he pretty much does whatever the last person he talked to says, I'm assuming she will be reappointed. The problem is that I'm not sure I can handle another four years of her blandness and Brooklyn accent.

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Author: Mike Paterson

Nowotny says ECB can not stop asset purchases abruptly

ECB governing council member Nowotny speaking to Der Standard now published 19 Oct - decision how to proceed must be made in Oct - sees arguments for slowing purchases Reuters reporting the comments from Austria's CB gov.

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Author: Mike Paterson

PBOC's Zhou says he will retire "soon"

PBOC governor Zhou's response to questioning 19 Oct Reuters reporting comments after an earlier story from them in which they had been told by sources that Zhou would likely retire around the time of the annual session of parliament next March.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

China SAFE head: FX rate will be more flexible

PAN Gongsheng is a Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) - Foreign exchange market is stable now

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

PBOC's Zhou says yuan trading band expansion is not a current focus

People's Bank of China Governor Zhou - yuan trading band expansion is not a current focus - yuan trading band not too important Onshore yuan (CNY) has a mid-point (the reference rate) set each day by the PBOC. The Bank allow it trade plus or minus 2% from this central rate. From time to time rumours sweep through that the band will be widened to 3%, which would seem to be next step. Zhou tipping a bucket of cold water on that idea.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

BoK raise South Korea GDP forecast

Bank of Korea: Sees economy to grow 3% in 2017 Economy to grow 2.9 pct in 2018 BoK Governor Lee says conditions ripening for an adjustment to monetary policy

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

RBA's Bullock speaking - nothing reported

Reserve Bank of Australia - Speech by Michele Bullock, Assistant Governor (Financial System), at the Australian Shareholders Association Says the RBA website:

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