Author:

Author: Adam Button

The Fed Chairman speaks Aug 25

Janet Yellen speaks on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium. The annual event is a traditional spot for central bankers to set the agenda for the final stretch of the year.

That said, there are no guarantees and a clue in the schedule suggests it might not be Yellen who makes a splash. The topic of her speech is 'financial stability' which is the kind of thing that often focuses on regulation.

More likely, it means she will speak about the start of the Fed's QE runoff. At this point, most expect a September announcement to be a formality and the start of the program to be smooth. That said, the Fed will be desperate to avoid sparking any volatility and is likely to be laser focused on execution in the months ahead.

On the economy, the Fed is likely confused. They made some rosy forecasts on inflation based on upticks in consumer and business surveys at the start of the year. Those surveys haven't translated into good economic growth but the main line of thinking from Yellen and the core of the FOMC is that it's only a matter of time.

Eventually, they might have to give up but for now, Yellen will want to wait and see for a few more months. If anything, that's likely to be the signal at Jackson Hole but it's not the kind of thing that will spark much of a market reaction.

View More

View Full Article with Comments

Author: Eamonn Sheridan
4

ANZ on what to expect from Yellen and Draghi next week (Jackson Hole preview)

ANZ with a look ahead to the week, with the preamble that: the last two weeks confirmed the USD has likely bottomed: What to expect at Jackson Hole: In his speech at the Jackson Hole meeting this week, ECB President Draghi is expected to give further sign of ECB's growing confidence in the euro area economy.

View More

Author: Adam Button
2

Fed's Kaplan sees 2017 GDP growth a little above 2%

Kaplan speaking in Dallas - Strength of US consumer is underpinning economy - US household sector has great capacity to spend Shouldn't the aim be to grow GDP-per-capita? I mean, growth is good for corporations and government tax revenues but GDP per capita is the bottom line on how effective your country is and the standard of living. Just bringing in people for the sake of overall growth isn't the solution most people are looking for.

View More

Author: Mike Paterson
8

Draghi to speak at Jackson Hole on 25th August

Details of Draghi speech at Jackson Hole  released a short while ago 18 Aug - speech to begin at 1pm local time ( 19.00 GMT ) No further detail, and of course no detail on content. This is just prior notice of the timing of his appearance.

View More

Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

Bank of England monetary policy - Mark Carney is going off script

Here is an interesting read for what may turn into a sedate Asian Friday ... , noting Its from Bloomberg on the Bank of England that textbooks would say to raise interest rates. Mark Carney is going off script.                 

View More

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Barclays on the European Central Bank minutes

I just posted the Bloomberg take on the ECB minutes here: "ECB officials expressed concern over risk of euro overshoot" (minutes recap) While I'm on the ECB, here is the (in brief) response via Barclays:

View More

Author: Eamonn Sheridan
3

BOJ will be buying JGBs today - but less?

Yields on 10 year JGB fell on Wednesday, the day the Bank of Japan reduced its purchases in the 5 to 10 year maturities There is another auction today, the Bank might reduce its purchases again. They are more likely to do so

View More

Author: Greg Michalowski
3

More Kashkari: No need to cool the economy down

Neil Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President He adds: Kashkari is a dove.  He does not support raising rates until inflation is more firmly entrenched. 

View More

Author: Eamonn Sheridan
6

Goldman Sachs is infiltrating the Fed in ways that most people haven't noticed

Great headline! This is from Business Insider (link): Goldman Sachs is infiltrating the Fed in ways that most people haven't noticed Its all about William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (and ex of Goldman Sachs) "fairly strong recommendation" of Gary Cohn (Trump's economic advisor and also ex of Goldman Sachs) for consideration as next Fed Chair.

View More

Author: Mike Paterson
9

US Fed's Bostic "worried about inflation numbers"

US Atlanta Fed head Bostic speaking to CNBC 16 Aug - low jobless rate not being translated into prices - to get robust economic growth we need more spending investment No danger of a rate hike before year end then it would appear but not a voting member of Fed until next year.

View More

Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

German finmin Schaeuble does not agree with German court on ECB

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in the press today (Handelsblatt) - Says he believes the European Central Bank observes its mandate - And says he does not agree with the German Constitutional Court (Headlines via Bloomberg)

View More


More Headlines