Here is the Fed schedule for the week of June 25-30
The past week began with a series of hawkish and optimistic comments from the Fed's Dudley that underscored the continued case for rate hikes and buying the US dollar. Critics continue to fret that the inflation picture doesn't support higher rates.
Mester spoke in the Q&A
- Failure to hike could mean inflation
- Fed is raising rates to keep the economy healthy, not to slow expansion
The hawks are still in control at the Fed but a fight is brewing.
Bullard spoke with Reuters
- Constant communication of steady rate hikes is inappropriate given the state of the economy
You can sense that Bullard is growing increasingly outspoken as he senses the economic data moving in his direction.
Jobs, growth and inflation ain't what they used to be
In the 20th century, it was easier for central bankers. When growth rose and the jobs market got tighter, prices and wages went up. It was macroeconomics 101 in real life.
Merkel says Draghi upbeat
- Merkel says there is a new spirit of optimism in Europe
- Draghi was confident
The market has been upbeat on the euro since the French Presidential election but it's stalled lately as traders wait for Draghi to shift and for the data to improve.
So say Reuters citing 3 sources " with direct knowledge of the discussions"
The ECB has not put a deadline on extending or winding down the scheme but a decision is likely either on either Sept 7 or Oct 26, giving markets several months to prepare.
Bank of Mexico Governor Carstens
- Says peso can reach 17 (to the USD) (but that is not a target) given the economy's resilience
- Pause in rates could last though a Federal Reserve rate hike, actions already taken should be sufficient to take inflation to the 3% target by end 2018
Carstens speaking with Bloomberg. Banco de Mexico have been on a sustained hiking cycle but look set to pause.
The whale is the Bank of Japan, of course
Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Mizuho Securities say BOJ purchases of government bonds may halve next year
- From the current target of 80tln yen to 40tln yen
And, if you're in London make your plans to clear your diary for that day, Yellen will be speaking there!
- June 27 2017
- No prepared text
- There will be audience Q&A
Speaking on global economic issues with the head of the British Academy
This is as expected
The Mexico's central bank has raised the overnight rate to 7.0% from 6.75%. The rise was expected.The USDMXN has dipped below its 100 and 200 hour MAs on the hike. Stay below is more bearish. The 61.8% a 18.0428 is the next target with 18.000 after that as a key target. The low has reached 17.8790.
Comment from Bullard, cited by Dow Jones
- The projection to raise the federal-funds rate to 3% over the next 2½ years "is unnecessarily aggressive"
This is the same tone we've heard from Bullard before but his comments on inflation right now have some sympathy at the FOMC.
Brazil's central bank out with a quarterly inflation report 22 June
- 2018 CPI 4.5% as prev
- 2017 GDP 0.5% as prev
- at last meeting policy committee considered appropriate reduction of easing pace in July
More at the BCB
ECB chief economist Praet talking to Der Spiegel 22 June
"In my opinion, the British have made a big mistake.The country has put itself in a very difficult situation. The damage is there, the British economic growth is already slowing down," Now it is only about minimizing the negative impact