Bears remain in control
The EURUSD has pushed lower in trading today. The pair yesterday extended above the 1.1209 level briefly on 2 separate occasions. This level represents the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the EURUSD 2000 year low to the 2008 year high. The inability to extend above this area, gave sellers more confidence to push lower.
In today's trading, the far east session experienced sideways activity with a high at 1.11834. In the European session, the pair moved lower, with the help of weaker UK data. Retail sales in the euro zone actually rose by a strong 1.1%, but the market shrugged that data off. The low has stalled at the bottom channel trendline that level currently comes in at the 1.1109 level. A break below this level has the low from January at 1.10972 not far behind. A break should solicit additional stops and downward momentum. The EURUSDs range for the day is around 70 pips. The average over the last 22 days is 113 pips (around a month of trading). So there is room to roam on an extension.
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the pair has corrected around 38.2% of the trend move the downside. If the bears (and the trend) are to remain in charge today, I would like to see the 38.2 to 50% retracement area to hold resistance on a correction. The hundred bar moving average on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart below) is also in this area.
