A look at the pair from a technical perspective....

The UK triggered Article 50. The exit out the EU time clock is ticking. The GBPUSD fell and then rose to the 200 hour MA and has started to fall again. The price is currently below the 100 hour MA and in doing so, is more bearish. But honestly the action is a bit messy today. There are buyers near the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and sellers against the 200 hour MA (see chart below).

What about a pair like the GBPJPY? What are the technicals showing for it?

Looking at that pair, the bias/direction is more bearish.

  • We are down on the day. The price closed at the 138.33 level. The high corrective price after the news stalled at 138.33. Bearish.
  • Yesterday the price tried moving higher but found willing sellers right against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the highs. Bearish
  • We traded below the March 22 low at 137.74. As a result, we traded at the lowest level since January 17th today. The low extended to 137.508. We are currently trading around the 137.74. PS The low for the year comes in at 136.447. Bearish.
  • The correction of the move down from yesterday's high stalled between the 38.2-50% of that move lower. Bearish.

What is not so great/bearish?

  • The price action is up and down/choppy.
  • The breaks below the March 22 low should have solicited more selling. It has not.
  • The NY session low took out the low from the Asian session but only by 8 pips (137.58 was broken and the low reached 137.50).

That stuff says to me that the market is struggling.

Are the sellers more in control? Yes. Are they on fire? No. I would rather be short but....

Drilling to the 5 minute chart what would spoil a bearish party?

Looking at the chart below, the price action for the day is not all that trendy. There are plenty of ups and downs.

However, more recently, the price has seen a correction up to the low from yesterday at the 138.032 level and the 100 and 200 bar MA even more recently (blue and green lines) stalling the rally. So sellers are trying to keep a lid on it.

If the price can stay below the MAs or at worst the low from yesterday, it will keep the sellers more in control. If the price moves above those levels, I don't like it as much. We could/should see a retest of the closing level at 136.33.

Overall, its a bit messy, but the sellers are trying to unclutter the clutter at the moment.