What we witnessed last Friday can not be ruled out today 21 Nov
That move saw a sharp spike up to 1.2814 from 1.2760 about an hour or so ahead of the expiry time and although a battle ensued from there we stayed above 1.2810 for a while.
USDCAD Friday 17 Nov
The amount that day was USD 695m and today we have USD1.52bln at 1.2750 and 580m at 1.2900 so I'd favour the downside but we may see some solid defence in both cases.
Currently 1.2811 we've seen a dip earlier fail at 1.2790 while the top side has been limited to 1.2837.
Remember that these are "vanilla" options so still in play right up to expiry at 15.00 GMT even if breached in the meantime, unlike barrier options which cease to be once hit. The actual amounts can change right up to expiry.
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Delicately poised as they say but forewarned is forearmed so keep the expiries in mind. If you don't want to make a play then at least you won't be left scratching your head if it all does kick off.
See you all back here tomorrow. London beckons. My work here is done for the day.
Remember,
