- US weekly jobless claims fall 3,000 to 420,000
- US durable goods orders orders fall 1.3%; core goods orders rise 2.6%
- US personal income rises 0.3%; spending 0.4% in November; Savings rate 5.3%
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey 74.5 final from prelim 74.2
- US new homes sales rise 5.6% on November after October slide
- Ireland nationalizes Allied Irish Bank
- Fitch cuts Portugal to A+
- S&P affirms France at AAA
- S&P 500 falls 0.2%; CRB closes at 26 mo high, Oil closes at $91.50 10-yr notes at 3.40%
EUR/USD slipped to fresh trend lows around 1.3055 after Ireland was forced to pony up another EUR 4 bln to save Allied Irish bank and traded heavy for the bulk of the US morning, ranging from 1.3055 to 1.3075; We spiked higher to 1.3155 in a flash on rumors that the SNB intervened in EUR/CHF. Moments later, Fitch downgrade Portugal and prices edged back to 1.3086.
EUR/CHF saw a good deal of short-covering at long last today, much of it coming in about 30 seconds of dealing. Intervention from the SNB was not confirmed (dealers were divided on whether the spike was generated purposely or purely a fat-finger trade…).
EUR/CHF bottomed at 1.2460 in London this morning and opened the NY session about a centime higher at 1.2560. We spiked from the 1.2560 area very late in the European session reaching 1.2645 very briefly before edging back down to 1.2580 after Portugal was downgraded.
USD/JPY traded weak today but managed to hold above important support around the 82.80. Same story in EUR/JPY where we held above 108.35 support.
AUD/USD continued its out-performance today. Commodities continue to firm (CRB up 0.4%) to the highest levels since the immediate aftermath of the Lehman collapse. We are about 2% away from a 50% retracement of the collapse from summer 2008 peaks. Maybe Aussie will finally relent if commodities stall there…
