By Theresa Sheehan

PRINCETON (SMRA) – The economic data calendar is quite sparse in
the week ahead, and almost devoid of any reports likely to have a market
impact.

However, a busy schedule of central bank announcements will give
markets plenty to think about, including the FOMC meeting minutes from
March 15.

The sparse data release calendar will not generate much excitement.
Those indicators on the schedule will be mostly second-tier reports.

The most important release of the week is likely to be the ISM
Non-Manufacturing Index for March at 10:00 ET on Tuesday. The indexes
for the manufacturing sector have been fairly strong of late. Should the
data suggest that services are moving in the same direction, it will
help the case for a more upbeat outlook for a sustainable economic
recovery. However, plunges in consumer confidence and jumps in input
costs like gasoline may restrain the activity in the services sector.

Jobless claims for the week ended April 2 at 8:30 ET on Thursday
may get a little boost from the start of a new quarter. Some claimants
wait to file until a new quarter starts because benefits can be higher.
However, the underlying trend for new claims is for lower levels. Claims
for continuing and extended benefits are dropping as well, if somewhat
unevenly.

Consumer credit outstanding in February at 15:00 ET on Thursday
will probably reflect the gains in sales of motor vehicles in the
non-revolving credit component. Revolving credit should continue to
decline as consumers opt for less credit use and lenders remain more
reluctant to provide credit to households.

Data on wholesale trade for February at 10:00 ET on Friday will
provide some information on changes in inventories as the first quarter
progressed, and will add to what is known in advance of the numbers on
overall business inventories when that report is released on April 13.
Factory inventories were already reported up 0.8%.

Same-store sales comparisons for fiscal April will be reported as
available on Thursday. Sales comparison may look a bit soft compared to
2010 due to the timing of the Easter holiday. In 2010 it fell on April
4, and much of that activity would have been captured in the fiscal
March data. In 2011, Easter falls as late as it can, on April 24.

Four central banks make routine monetary policy announcements
during the week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will issue its statement on Tuesday
(00:30 ET in the US). The Bank will probably keep the cash rate at 4.75%
unless there have been further negative impacts from the Queensland
floods, or in the global economy which could result in deterioration in
the domestic economy. In its February 1 announcement, rates were still
considered “appropriate” in the outlook at the time.

Expectations for rate hikes at the Bank of England and the ECB have
been on the rise along with commodities costs.

The BOE Monetary Policy Committee meets on Wednesday and Thursday.
Recent votes have shown a shift in balance away from holding rates and
asset purchases steady to increasing the rate and reducing assets
bought.

The ECB has signaled “strong vigilance” in regard to price
increases. This has widely been interpreted as an indication that the
ECB will raise rates and the Governing Council could act after the
meeting on Thursday to reduce perceived risks to medium-term price
stability.

The Bank of Japan Policy Board meets on Wednesday and Thursday.
Further steps to provide liquidity may be undertaken as the country
struggles to recover from the earthquake and tsunami on March 11, and as
the crisis at the nuclear power plants drags on.

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March 15, 2010
FOMC meeting at 14:00 ET on Tuesday. Although there was no hint of
dissent in the 10-0 vote at the meeting, subsequent remarks by some
District Bank Presidents suggest more divergent views on the Large Scale
Asset Purchase program and the need to maintain the extremely
accommodative stance of policy. There may be some hints of this in the
minutes, and that changes in policy are in the wind.

There are numerous Fed officials giving public remarks. A number of
appearances are connect to the Atlanta Fed 2011 Financial Markets
Conference — Navigating the New Financial Landscape — which runs from
Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon. There will also be a few
former Fed notables in attendance, like Vince Reinhart, Randall
Kroszner, and Anthony Santomero.

On Thursday, the Treasury will announce the next leg of the
refunding with new 3-year noted and reopenings of the 10-year notes and
30-year bonds, to be auctioned on Tuesday-Thursday in the following
week. All will settle on March 15.

** Stone & McCarthy Research Associates **

[TOPICS: M$$FI$,M$U$$$,MAUDS$]