By Antti Kerppola

HELSINKI (MNI) – Finland’s populist euro-skeptic party, True Finns,
surged in national elections Sunday to capture 39 of the 200 seats in
the next parliament, nearly eight times the number it currently holds.

The party’s strong showing is likely to catapult it into the next
government along with the center-right National Coalition Party, a
member of the current government, which came in first place with 43
seats. The Social Democrats, an opposition party, came in second with 42
seats. The Centre Party of current Prime Minister Mari Kiviniemi tumbled
to fourth place, losing 15 of its 50 seats in parliament.

In actual vote count, the three top parties were extremely close
together. National Coalition took 20.1%, the Social Democrats 19.2% and
True Finns 19.1%. The Centre Party was further back with 16.0%

The rise of True Finns and their likely participation in the next
government will ensure that the Eurozone debt crisis, and especially the
share of bailout money provided by Finland, remains a hot topic in
domestic Finnish politics.

The financial situation in the euro area became one of the main
themes in the election campaign, largely due to the influence of True
Finns, who strongly criticized plans to put taxpayer money on the line
in the form of loan guarantees for the bailout fund, the European
Financial Stability Facility.

True Finns, often compared to the Tea Party in the United States,
is critical of globalism and the well-connected power elites. It heavily
influenced the pre-election debates, resulting in a huge amount of air
time being devoted to the issue of Finland’s stake in the EFSF and, more
recently, the aid request from Portugal.

“The result of the election shows an EU-skeptical attitude that
cannot be denied, said Alexander Stubb, the minister of foreign affairs,
who belongs to the National Coalition party.

In recent months, True Finns party chief Timo Soini had turned the
Finnish political balance on its head. He personally received more than
40,000 votes on Sunday, the highest score for any individual candidate.

The Social Democrats’ leader Jutta Urpilainen was the first to
congratulate Soini, saying that “the True Finns belong to the
Government.”

If True Finns do indeed participate in the next government, they
will make for strange bedfellows with the leading National Coalition
Party, known for its very pro-EU attitude. The National Coalition
leader, Jyrki Katainen, who is currently Finland’s finance minister, is
expected next week to start negotiations to form a new government. He is
likely to be appointed the next prime minister.

The negotiations will not be easy. The True Finns have stated
clearly that they will not join a government that participates in a
bailout for Portugal or any other EMU states that might eventually need
aid. Instead, the party argues, countries that can’t pay their bills
should restructure their debt.

In the last debate before the election on Thursday, Soini described
the financial dynamics in Greece as “impossible,” referring to high
unemployment, plunging purchasing power and astronomical bond yields
that surged on Friday to a record 1,028 basis points above German Bunds.
Greece should restructure its debt without delay, Soini demanded.

Kiviniemi, the current prime minister and Centre Party Chairwoman,
admitted her party’s defeat and said it “will clearly be in the
opposition.” The head of the Green Party, Anni Sinnemaki, who is also
the Labor Minister in the current government, has said explicitly that
“the Greens will not be government partners with the True Finns.”

Before election deny analysts had not expected the elections to
mark such a dramatic turn in Finland’s European policy. Obviously the
True Finns’ higher-than-expected share of the vote changes the
situation. The collapse of the Centre Party also caught analysts by
surprise.

Indeed, the real winner of the election was the True Finns, since
six six of the other parties in parliament lost seats and one remained
unchanged. However, the Social Democrats, which rose to second place,
also claimed victory. “The silver [medal] is not a loss,” shouted party
chairwoman Urpilainen.

Katainen, the finance minister and likely head of the next
government, sought to project a sense of optimism about governing with
the newly emboldened True Finns. “When responsible people work together,
solutions will be found,” he said.

Even Soini himself was caught off guard by his party’s surprise
success. He waxed more statesman-like on election night, hinting that
common ground could be found even on the thorny situation in Portugal.
“This won’t be easy,” he said, “but we don’t take the easy road.”

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