EUR/USD’s retracement continues this morning amid yesterday’s ECB commentary on “solidarity” with the dollar, a huge adjustment in EUR/GBP positions after the BOE signaled no more quantitative ease near-term nor a cut in its deposit rate. Throw in Iran’s brinkmanship and there are plenty of reasons for traders to head to the sidelines.
Technicals have seriously deteriorated and important support levels are now very much in view.
The 1.4500/15 region is the next solid zone of support while the 1.4445/65 area is the last line in the sand if that gives way. With looming major US economic reports late this week, profit-taking ahead of the news may play out.
The one factor that might coax EUR/USD longs into retaining their positions are expected month-end flows out of dollars as overseas investors rebalance their portfolios and sell the dollars accumulated via the rise in US equity indexes (over 5% so far) in September. Similar flows last month led to a very strong EUR/USD rally at month-end. With sentiment shifting, traders could use upticks to pare increasingly stale longs.
