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Conflicting reports from Investment Banks on state of AUD market

By   || November 22, 2009 at 23:07 GMT
|| 6 comments || Add comment

As I wrote on Friday, one US investment bank issued a warning to their clients regarding the state of the AUD market- namely that it is very long and in danger of a big clean-out. Now another US investment house has issued an analysis of market flows, finding that despite significant selling by leveraged, speculative players, the AUD is holding up well and is ready for another rally. Pick your own poison I guess.

One point to note is that the former have included the retail market in their analysis whereas the latter are too arrogant and still think that FX is an institutional matter. They’ll learn.

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6 Responses to “Conflicting reports from Investment Banks on state of AUD market”

  1. Sam on November 22nd, 2009 23:44 GMT

    Just tell me which one is Goldman Sachs then I will know which one to choose. lol

    If last week’s EUR DNB was truly defended by China, then I suppose they ended up with tons of long positions. How can they afford it to go down?

  2. Sean Lee on November 22nd, 2009 23:46 GMT

    You’re too good Sam, well it’s not the first!
    And yes China will end up with lots of EUR but I think they are probably not dissatisfied to have a few extra billion EUR in their reserves when their USD exposure is measured in trillions.

  3. Tajul Akbar Bin Ismail on November 22nd, 2009 23:51 GMT

    True, they have trillions in US Tsy … they can afford it since they have the biggest reserves in the world

  4. lilac on November 23rd, 2009 00:00 GMT

    That makes Citi the first then ;)
    But hey, GS aren’t wrong, are they – anyone mad enough to trade FX is heading for an institution sooner or later ;)

  5. Sean Lee on November 23rd, 2009 00:12 GMT

    True enough Lilac, especially the much maligned cable traders!!

  6. lilac on November 23rd, 2009 00:25 GMT

    Well I wasn’t going to be specific ;)

    BTW:
    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/20/84476/have-a-holly-jolly-rally-filled-christmas-goldman-says/

    D’you know the story about the cuddly kittens?

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