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It’s always darkest before the dawn…

By   || August 27, 2010 at 17:53 GMT
|| 9 comments || Add comment

“The US economy remains almost comatose. The slump
already ranks as the longest period of sustained
weakness since the Depression. The economy is
staggering under many “structural” burdens, as opposed
to familiar “cyclical” problems. The structural faults
represent once-in-a-lifetime dislocations that will take
years to work out. Among them: the job drought; the
debt hangover; the banking collapse; the real estate
depression; the health care cost explosion and the
runaway federal deficit.”

-Time Magazine, Sept. 1992

Two months later, the NBER would announce the recession had ended 19-months earlier.

While it all looks like gloom and doom now, it’ll look better some day…


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9 Responses to “It’s always darkest before the dawn…”

  1. pandu on August 27th, 2010 18:11 GMT

    Jamie,
    Very true. I like your pragmatic optimism, in contrast to the doom stories everywhere. However the market on this Friday afternoon is deader than dead. Thanks for all the great insights and humour, it is much appreciated. Have a good weekend.

  2. Hart on August 27th, 2010 18:18 GMT

    Well said Pandu. I’m glad I chose the stay flat after I got stopped out on a small eur/jpy short early in Asia. Watching it (eur//jpy and aud/jpy) Just hang on to their gains, I was watching the for the 200 hourly on eur/jpy to get taken 108.42. With the us news coming early this morning it wasn’t worth the risk for me to go long. Welcome September! And none too soon!

  3. lilac on August 27th, 2010 18:32 GMT

    Ok so no songs.
    Got any good recipes JC?

  4. lilac on August 27th, 2010 18:37 GMT

    Once in a lifetime dislocations … yeah right.
    Hohum.

    And yes – I always look on the brightside.
    There’s no better way is there.

  5. JR on August 27th, 2010 23:39 GMT

    Thanks again, Jamie. This time is, as all are, different. Clinton had the pc/internet/biotech bubble to drive the economy. We’ll see what can pull us out of the largest deleveraging in modern history. We’re in a 2trillion hole that so far has been filled with 780b in stimulus. Anyhow, we double bottomed off 1040- In Ben We Trust. Lord knows why. Lower interest rates and free money hasn’t put anybody back to work – or paid a mortgage – yet. Maybe some of those benefits will trickle down. Time will tell. Anyhow, that gap at S+P 1121 is still open. Once its closed it’s game on. Have a great weekend all!

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